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Development and Initial Validation of Method for Quantitative Determination of Therapeutic Monoclonal Antibodies in Biological Samples Using LC-QTOF-MS
Get PDFMonoklonale antistoffer har blitt bredt implementert i klinisk bruk, spesielt i behandlingen av kreft og autoimmune sykdommer, fordi de har lav toksisitet og høy selektivitet for målproteinene. Konsentrasjonen av mAb legemidlet i blodet kan imidlertid variere mellom pasienter, og hvis legemidlet har et smalt terapeutisk område, kan terapeutisk legemiddelmonitorering (TDM) utføres for å opprettholde legemiddelkonsentrasjonen innenfor det terapeutiske området for å minimere kliniske bivirkninger og øke den terapeutiske effekten. For å legge til rette for TDM, må det utvikles metoder for kvantifisering av legemidler i blod eller andre matriser.
I denne masteroppgaven ble det utviklet en metode for kvantifisering av trastuzumab og bevacizumab i humant blod plasma. Prøvematrisen fokuserte på etylendiamintetraeddiksyre (EDTA)-antikoagulert plasma, men autonorm og humant serum ble også brukt som prøvematriser under metodeutviklingen for å sammenligne resultater med EDTA plasma. Prøveprepareringen var enkelt og besto av tre trinn: proteinutfelling, fordøyelse og stoppe fordøyelsen. For å redusere kompleksiteten til prøven ble det utført to sentrifugeringer: en etter proteinutfelling og en etter at fordøyelsen var stoppet. Etter prøveprepareringen ble prøven analysert ved LC-QTOF-MS som var optimalisert for de aktuelle analyttene. Dårlig trypsineringen ble observert i EDTA plasma, noe som resulterte i lav respons av mAbs etter analyse. Flere eksperimenter ble utført og observert at tilsetning av kalsiumioner forbedret trypsineringen i EDTA plasma sammenlignet med fravær av kalsiumioner.
Måleområdet for trastuzumab og bevacizumab var 2 – 200 μg/mL, og det ble observert en korrelasjon mellom konsentrasjonen av mAb og responsen av mAb. Derfor var den lave deteksjonen av trastuzumab og bevacizumab mulig til 2 μg/mL og 4 μg/mL, henholdsvis, men responsen til analytter i blank prøver bør alltid evalueres.
Siden denne masteroppgaven fokuserte på metodeutvikling, ble det ikke gjennomført en fullstendig validering av den analytiske ytelsen.The monoclonal antibodies have been widely implemented in various therapeutic areas, especially in the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases, because they have low toxicity and high selectivity for the target proteins. However, the concentration of the mAb drug in blood may vary between patients, and if the drug has a narrow therapeutic range, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) can be performed to maintain the drug concentration within the therapeutic range to minimize clinical adverse effects and increase therapeutic effects. To facilitate TDM, methods for quantifying drugs in blood or other matrices need to be developed.
In this master’s thesis, a method for quantification of trastuzumab and bevacizumab in human blood plasma was developed. The sample matrix focused on ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) – anticoagulated plasma, but autonorm and human serum were also used as sample matrices during method development to compare results with EDTA plasma. The sample preparation was simple and consisted of three steps: protein precipitation, digestion and quench digestion. To reduce the complexity of the sample, two centrifugation steps were performed: one after protein precipitation and one after quenching the digestion. After sample preparation, the sample was analyzed using LC-QTOF-MS that was optimized for the specific analytes. The poor trypsinization was observed in EDTA plasma, resulting in low response of mAbs after analysis. Several experiments were performed and observed that the addition of calcium ions improved the trypsinization in EDTA plasma compared to the absence of calcium ions.
The measurement range of trastuzumab and bevacizumab was 2 – 200 μg/mL, and a correlation between the concentration of mAbs and the response of mAb was observed. The lower detection of trastuzumab and bevacizumab were feasible to 2 μg/mL and 4 μg/mL, respectively, but the responses of analytes in blank samples should always be evaluated.
Since this master’s thesis focused on method development, a complete validation of the analytical performance was not conducted
Tverrsektoriell innovasjon og samarbeidsdynamikk: Et kvalitativt casestudie i offentlig-privat innovasjonssamarbeid
Get PDFSamstyring og tverrsektorielt samarbeid har blitt fremhevet som viktige mekanismer for å løse komplekse samfunnsutfordringer og styrke innovasjonsevnen i offentlig sektor (Emerson et al., 2012; Sørensen & Torfing, 2011). Likevel kan slike samarbeid utfordres av maktasymmetri, ulike institusjonelle logikker og varierende grad av tillit og eierskap, særlig i utviklingen av velferdsteknologiske løsninger der kommunale og private aktører må navigere i ulike styringslogikker og profesjonskulturer.
Denne studien er en kvalitativ casestudie med abduktiv forskningslogikk, og bygger på et rammeverk som kombinerer Emerson et al. sin modell for samstyring med perspektiver på samstyringsbasert innovasjon. Datagrunnlaget består av semistrukturerte intervjuer og dokumentanalyse, analysert ved hjelp av Flexible Pattern Matching Approach (FPMA).
Casen omhandler et prosjekt i helsefeltet der tverrfaglige og -sektorielle aktører samarbeidet om å utvikle og teste en ny velferdsteknologisk løsning. Studien viser at samarbeidet i hovedsak ble drevet av strategiske og strukturelle hensyn, der legitimering, ressursutnyttelse og prosjektets videre eksistens ble prioritert. På overflaten fremstod samarbeidet som velfungerende, men var i starten preget av usikkerhet, maktasymmetri og manglende fellesspråk.
Funnene nyanserer samstyring, og viser hvordan samarbeid kan fungere under mindre ideelle betingelser drevet av nødvendighet og pragmatisme. Studien bidrar til teoriutvikling ved å synliggjøre hvordan tverrsektorielle prosjekter formes av spenningen mellom innovasjonsideal og overlevelseslogikk.
Problemstillingen for studien er: Hvordan preges samstyrte innovasjonsprosesser i offentlig sektor av motsetninger mellom idealer om brukermedvirkning og praksis preget av organisatorisk overlevelse og strategisk styring?Collaborative governance and cross-sectoral cooperation are widely seen as key mechanisms for addressing complex societal challenges and enhancing public sector innovation capacity (Emerson et al., 2012; Sørensen & Torfing, 2011). However, such collaborations often face challenges related to power asymmetries, institutional logics, and varying degrees of trust and ownership—particularly in welfare technology development, where municipal and private actors must navigate divergent governance systems and professional cultures.
This qualitative case study applies abductive research logic and draws on a theoretical framework combining Emerson et al.’s collaborative governance model with perspectives on collaborative innovation. Empirical material includes semi-structured interviews and document analysis, interpreted using the Flexible Pattern Matching Approach (FPMA).
The case centers on a health sector project where cross-sectoral and interdisciplinary actors collaborated to develop and test a welfare technology solution. Findings indicate that the collaboration was primarily driven by strategic and structural concerns, legitimacy, resource use, and project sustainability rather than user insight. Although appearing successful, the collaboration was initially marked by uncertainty, power asymmetry, and lack of shared language.
The study nuances idealized models of collaborative governance, showing how cooperation can function under suboptimal conditions driven by necessity and pragmatism. It contributes to theory by illustrating how cross-sectoral projects are shaped by tensions between innovation ideals and organizational survival logic.
The research question is: How are collaborative innovation processes in the public sector shaped by tensions between ideals of user involvement and practices driven by survival and strategic control
Tekno-økonomisk analyse av termisk borehullslager for et eldre industribygg
Get PDFVerden står midt i en omfattende energiomstilling, hvor behovet for å fase ut fossile energikilder til fordel for fornybare løsninger er akutt. Elektrifiseringen av transport og industri, kombinert med skjerpede klimamål, fører til økt etterspørsel etter en robust og fleksibel energiforsyning. Samtidig er produksjonen fra sol- og vindkraft væravhengig, lite regulerbar og dårlig tilpasset Norges varmebehov. Om lag 60 % av energibruken i norske hjem går til oppvarming, hvor behovet er størst når sol- og vindressursene er på sitt laveste. Det oppstår dermed et misforhold mellom når energien produseres og når den trengs, noe som forsterker behovet for energilagring.
Elektriske batterier benyttes i økende grad, men høye kostnader og begrenset kapasitet gjør teknologien dårlig egnet til å håndtere sesonglagring. Et aktuelt alternativ er borehullsbasert termisk energilagring (BTES), der varme lagres i grunnen om sommeren og hentes ut igjen om vinteren. Selv om teknologien er moden, finnes det foreløpig få fullskala BTES-anlegg i drift.
I den sammenheng er formålet med oppgaven å vurdere den tekniske gjennomførbarheten og økonomiske lønnsomheten ved å investere i et BTES-anlegg, driftet av egenprodusert solenergi (PV), i et eldre næringsbygg i Norge. Oppgaven er gjennomført som en teknoøkonomisk analyse der energiproduksjon, varmelagring og varmebehov vurderes samlet opp mot investerings- og driftskostnader. Målet er å undersøke om en slik løsning kan dekke byggets varmebehov på en kostnadseffektiv måte, og samtidig identifisere hvilke faktorer som har størst betydning for lønnsomheten.
For å svare på problemstillingen er det tatt utgangspunkt i et konkret case ved Kvisle Utviklingspark i Åsnes kommune. Det er vurdert to ulike lokasjonsalternativer for plassering av det selvforsynte BTES-anlegget, med varierende grunnforhold og tekniske forutsetninger. De prosjektert og dimensjonert løsningene er basert på teknisk litteratur og relevant forskning.
Energiproduksjonen fra solcelleanlegget er designet og simulert i PV*SOL Premium, og byggets varmebehov er estimert med utgangspunkt i historisk flisinnkjøp, graddagskorrigert for sesongvariasjoner. Borehullslagrene til de to ulike lokasjonene er dimensjonert etter det graddagskorrigerte varmebehovet, med ulike formfaktorer for å ta hensyn til lokale tilpasninger.
Den tekniske og økonomiske gjennomførbarheten er vurdert ved hjelp av en egenutviklet estimeringsmodell som tar hensyn til varmetilførsel fra varmepumpen, varmetap i lagrene, estimerte elektrisitetspriser, nettleie og markedspris på flis. Modellen danner grunnlaget for kontantstrømmene investeringen forventes å generere over en analyseperiode på 25 år. Investeringskostnadene for de to alternativene er basert på innhentede data fra relevante bransjeaktører. Lønnsomheten er deretter vurdert ved bruk av netto nåverdi, internrente og tilbakebetalingstid.
Resultatene fra analysen viser at et BTES-anlegg kan dekke hele det årlige varmebehovet ved bygget, og dermed gjøre det selvforsynt med varmeenergi. Teknisk sett vurderes løsningen som gjennomførbar, men den økonomiske analysen viser at prosjektet ikke er lønnsomt under dagens rammebetingelser. Netto nåverdien er negativ for begge lokasjonsalternativene, hvor det mest lønnsomme alternativet krever en subsidieringsgrad på opptil 70 % for å kunne gi positiv avkastning.
Sensitivitetsanalysen viser at energiprisene må øke med over 200 % for at løsningen skal være lønnsom uten støtte. Dette tilsier at det kreves til dels ekstreme og vedvarende endringer i sentrale forutsetninger før investering i BTES vil fremstå som økonomisk bærekraftig. Selv om estimeringsmodellen er forbundet med usikkerhet knyttet til både tekniske og økonomiske input, gir analysen et robust grunnlag for å konkludere med at systemet ikke vil være lønnsomt innenfor dagens rammebetingelser. Usikkerheten i modellen trekker i begge retninger, men vurderes ikke å ha avgjørende betydning for oppgavens hovedkonklusjon.
Selv om prosjektet ikke vurderes som lønnsomt for det aktuelle bygget, kan teknologien være relevant i andre sammenhenger. BTES kan bidra til å redusere effekttopper, styrke lokal energiberedskap og redusere avhengighet av strømnettet. Teknologien er mer aktuell for offentlige aktører eller bygg med lang investeringshorisont, og der samfunnsøkonomiske hensyn vektlegges høyere enn direkte avkastning. Dersom dagens rammebetingelser skulle endres, eller støtteordninger styrkes, vil forutsetningene for lønnsomhet kunne forbedres betydelig.The world is undergoing a profound energy transition, where the need to phase out fossil energy sources in favor of renewable solutions is increasingly urgent. The electrification of transport and industry, combined with stricter climate targets, has led to growing demand for a robust and flexible energy supply. At the same time, electricity production from solar and wind is weather-dependent, non-dispatchable, and poorly aligned with Norway’s heating needs. Approximately 60% of household energy consumption in Norway goes toward heating, with peak demand occurring during periods when solar and wind resources are at their lowest. This mismatch between production and demand reinforces the need for effective energy storage solutions.
Although the use of electrical batteries is increasing, high costs and limited capacity make them poorly suited for seasonal storage. A relevant alternative is Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES), where heat is stored in the ground during summer and extracted in winter. While the technology is mature, there are currently few full-scale BTES systems in operation.
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the technical feasibility and economic viability of investing in a BTES system, powered by on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, in an older commercial building in Norway. The assessment is carried out as a techno-economic analysis, in which energy production, thermal storage, and heating demand are considered collectively against investment and operational costs. The objective is to determine whether such a system can meet the building’s heating demand in a cost-effective manner and to identify which factors most strongly influence profitability.
To address the research question, the study is based on a real case at Kvisle Utviklingspark in Åsnes Municipality. Two different location alternatives for the BTES system are evaluated, reflecting varying geological conditions and technical assumptions. The proposed and dimensioned solutions are based on technical literature and relevant research.
The energy production from the PV system is designed and simulated using PV*SOL Premium, while the building’s heating demand is estimated using historical woodchip consumption data, adjusted for seasonal variations using heating degree days. The borehole storage systems are dimensioned based on the adjusted heat demand, using different form factors to accommodate local constraints.
The technical and economic feasibility is assessed using a custom-built estimation model, accounting for heat input from the heat pump, thermal losses in the storage system, estimated electricity prices, grid tariffs, and the market price of woodchips. The model provides the basis for projected cash flows over a 25-year analysis period. Investment costs for both alternatives are derived from data provided by industry stakeholders. Profitability is evaluated using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and payback time.
The analysis shows that a BTES system can fully cover the building’s annual heating demand, thereby enabling self-sufficiency in thermal energy. Technically, the solution is feasible, but the economic analysis demonstrates that the project is not viable under current market conditions. NPV is negative for both location alternatives, and even the more favorable option requires a subsidy rate of up to 70% to yield a positive return.
Sensitivity analysis indicates that energy prices would need to increase by more than 200% for the solution to be profitable without support. This suggests that only substantial and lasting changes in key assumptions would make BTES a financially sustainable investment. Although the estimation model includes uncertainty related to both technical and economic inputs, the analysis provides a solid basis for concluding that the system is not economically viable under current conditions. While the uncertainty cuts both ways, it is not deemed significant enough to alter the overall conclusion of the study.
Although the project is not considered profitable for the specific building analyzed, the technology may still be relevant in other contexts. BTES can help reduce peak loads, enhance local energy resilience, and decrease dependency on the power grid. The technology is particularly relevant for public-sector actors or buildings with a long investment horizon, where socio-economic considerations are prioritized over immediate financial return. Should current regulatory frameworks change or subsidy schemes be expanded, the conditions for profitability could improve significantly
Assessment of possible human health hazards of frozen Sitotroga cerealella eggs in the plant protection products CHRYSObio and CHRYSOcontrol
Get PDFVKM has assessed possible health hazards associated with the use of frozen eggs of Sitotroga cerealella as feed. Background The plant protection products CHRYSObio and CHRYSOcontrol contain Chrysoperla carnea and frozen eggs of Sitotroga cerealella. The eggs are used as feed for the larvae of C. carnea, the beneficial organism in the products. VKM has previously assessed environmental and health risks associated with C. carnea. Since the eggs of S. cerealella are frozen (dead), VKM has now assessed only human health hazard associated with the eggs in the products CHRYSObio and CHRYSOcontrol. Conclusion Insect eggs, frozen or not, can carry pathogens that may be harmful to humans. Freezing can kill some of these pathogens, but some hardy pathogens can survive low temperatures. Some people are allergic to insect proteins, and freezing does not eliminate such proteins. However, VKM found no reports identifying eggs of S. cerealella neither as carriers of pathogens nor as a cause of allergies in humans. The risk assessment is approved by VKM's Panel on Plant Health.Assessment of possible human health hazards of frozen Sitotroga cerealella eggs in the plant protection products CHRYSObio and CHRYSOcontrolpublishedVersio
Bat Community Composition and Activity of Migratory Bats in Southwest Norway – Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influence of Weather
Get PDF* Several temperate bat species undertake seasonal long-distance migrations (>1000 km). Such long-distance movements require significant energy expenditures, putting the bats at risk of exhaustion - especially if they encounter harsh weather along the way. Additionally, they are increasingly facing human-made obstacles that can pose a direct threat, such as wind turbines. The knowledge of bat migration routes in Norway is poor. Southwestern Norway has been suggested as a potential migratory pathway for bats crossing the North Sea. To understand how wind energy development in this area could impact migrating bats, there is a need to gain more knowledge about bat migration patterns and potential migratory pathways. In this study, I aim to explore migration patterns and how environmental factors influence the activity of long-distance migratory bats in the Norwegian southwest.
* The main goal of this study is to get a better understanding of autumn migration patterns of bats along the coast in southwest Norway and how environmental variables influence their activity. More specifically, this study aims to (1) quantify the overall activity of migratory and sedentary bats across the study sites; (2) for the migratory species (a) understand when the autumn migration period occurs, (b) identify potential activity peaks across sites, and (c) compare the activity patterns of the migratory species; (3) quantify any seasonal patterns in commuting, social and feeding behavior of migratory bats; and (4) explain how precipitation, temperature, wind speed and wind direction influence the activity of migratory bats within the migration period.
* Coastal areas of southwestern Norway were monitored for bat activity by deploying nine automated ultrasonic detectors between June and October in 2024. A subset of bat recordings targeted at migratory species was manually identified and categorized by behavior. Environmental data of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction for each study site were gathered from senorge.no.
* I found that both migratory and sedentary bat species were active along the coast of Rogaland. The activity of the migratory species N. noctula was relatively low but continuous throughout the season, while P. nathusii activity peaked during the typical migration period. Feeding and social behaviors of P. nathusii were generally observed in early autumn, whereas N. noctula foraged by the coast during summer. P. nathusii activity within the migration period was low on rainy nights, but increased on nights with low wind speed and high temperatures. In the migration period, P. nathusii was most active at northern wind directions with wind speeds around 2.5 m/s, suggesting bats were migrating southward along the coast.
* Implications for management and conservation. In light of the existing and planned wind energy facilities offshore and along the Norwegian North Sea coastline, the findings of this study have important applications for the renewable energy sector. To fulfil their responsibilities under the EUROBATS Agreement, Norway should carefully plan the placement of wind turbines and implement mitigation measures in high-activity periods to avoid future bat-wind conflicts
A Cycle of Stigma: Focus on Menstrual Health and Rights in Plan International
Get PDFThis thesis explores menstrual health and rights through a case study of Plan International and how the organisation work with menstrual health and rights in Bangladesh, Nepal, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Malawi. The introduction highlights the importance of sexual and reproductive health and rights as enablers of human rights and sustainable development. The role of menstrual health and rights is recognised as important for gender equality. The objective of the study is to find out whether the work of Plan International contributes to secure good MHM for menstruating people and address the factors that discriminates them, especially girls and women. The research employs a qualitative case study design with expert, individual online synchronous interviews and a thematic analysis. Theories of intersectionality, empowerment, capabilities and situated knowledges are used to analyse components in the research methodology and the findings. A literature review reveals poverty, patriarchy and stigma as drivers of inequality and poor menstrual hygiene management, which coheres with the findings from the research additional to the role of culture and social norms. The findings explore and compare the different interventions and approaches between the different Plan International country offices, as well as the challenges they meet and results they get from their programs. The findings reveal that most interventions on menstrual health and rights involves community awareness, gender inclusion, and access to menstrual products, with emphasis on adapting to the local cultures and norms. Challenges include deep-rooted stigma, power structures, parental gatekeeping and backlash against norm change, while progress is seen in girl’s empowerment, shifting social perceptions on menstruation, and male engagement. The findings highlight the importance of context specific approaches and considerations of culture and power.
The conclusion underscores the importance of menstrual health as integral to realisation of human rights, noting the persistence in stigma and how it hinders access to necessary means to secure good menstrual hygiene management. The study advocates for continued focus on awareness to dismantle harmful practices and promote gender equality. Limitations of the study are acknowledged, hence offering the study as a guiding tool, rather than an exact recreation of reality.
Keywords: Plan International, menstrual health and rights, menstrual hygiene management, social norms, stigma, gender equality, gender transformative approac
Facilitated identification of bioactive peptide fractions and optimization of enzymatic protein hydrolysis using size-exclusion chromatography fingerprints: Combining interval PLS and response surface modeling
Get PDFProtein hydrolysates made from food industry byproducts have the potential to be used as nutraceuticals that can alleviate high blood pressure, by inhibiting angiotensin converting enzyme I (ACE-I). Discovery and optimization of bioactive peptide fractions, in typically complex protein hydrolysates, is a laborious and time-consuming task. In the present study, a library of 108 hydrolysates were produced from mechanical deboning chicken residue, using three different temperatures, four protease concentrations and nine hydrolysis times, in a full factorial manner. Employed design of experiment enabled a thorough screening of the experimental space and resulted in hydrolysates with substantial variation in bioactivity. Hydrolysates were characterized by size-exclusion chromatography and by in vitro ACE-I inhibition assay. To identify a bioactive fraction, interval-partial least square (iPLS) regression based on a chromatographic fingerprint of a crude samples was used, which eliminated the need for time-consuming bioassay-guided fractionation. After the bioactive fraction was identified, the response surface modeling (RSM) was employed to develop a predictive model for the optimization of hydrolysate properties by adjusting the production parameters. Here we are presenting a novel methodology combining: (1) SEC fingerprint-based iPLS for facilitated identification of bioactive peptide fractions, and (2) RSM using the identified SEC fractions as a response for a robust optimization of the hydrolysis process. A combination of iPLS and RSM utilizing chromatographic fingerprints was demonstrated as a promising analytical approach that can facilitate discovery of bioactive peptides in complex hydrolysates and further enable optimization of production conditions.publishedVersio
Valuing the benefits of climate adaptation measures to reduce urban flooding: Community Preferences for Nature-Based Solutions
No full textpublishedVersio
Non-detriment finding for Bali myna (Leucopsar rothschildi)
Get PDFInnførsel av en levende balistær (Leucopsar rothschildi) avlet i fangenskap fra en dyrehage i Danmark til en dyrehage i Norge vil ikke være til skade for artens bevaringsstatus. Vurderingen ble gjort på oppdrag fra Miljødirektoratet, som er forvaltningsmyndighet for Konvensjonen om internasjonal handel med truede arter av vill flora og fauna, CITES, i Norge. VKM er vitenskapelig myndighet for CITES i Norge, og utarbeider vitenskapelige vurderinger (såkalte ‘non-detriment findings’) i tråd med metodikk publisert av Verdens naturvernunion (IUCN) og CITES.Non-detriment finding for Bali myna (Leucopsar rothschildi)publishedVersio
Explaining the recent reduction of Indonesia’s deforestation
Get PDFExecutive summary:
Deforestation in Indonesia has declined sharply since 2015-2016. We use a combination of spatial land use change data, interviews with stakeholders and statistical analysis to explain this reduction.
The exact extent of the reduction in deforestation depends on the data set used, and the years or time periods compared, varying between 40% and 90%. A robust estimate is that deforestation has fallen by at least 50% since ca. 2016.
The decline is uneven across islands and provinces. The two main “deforestation islands” Kalimantan and Sumatra experienced a major decline, with a relatively larger decline in the former. The provinces with the largest absolute decline were Riau, South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, followed by West and East Kalimantan.
In terms of commodities driving deforestation (“direct drivers”), palm oil is still the most important commodity (46% for 2018-2022, according to MapBiomas Indonesia data, compared to 55% for the period 2010-2017).
Pulp is on the rise as a deforestation driver, particularly in Kalimantan. In the three high deforestation provinces on that island, the demand for pulp was behind almost 1/3 of the natural forest conversion in 2022.
Mining for coal and valuable minerals such as nickel is also on the rise, with MBI data suggesting its share of national deforestation being 5.4% (2021-2022), compared to less than one (0.9%) for the 2010-2017 period. Mining is particularly important in Sulawesi, where it according to one estimate accounted for 30% of the deforestation in 2021-2022.
Five hypotheses are put forward to explain the reduction, related to public policies, private (corporate) policies, civil society pressure, commodity prices, and forest scarcity.
New public (government) policies have been a main reason for the decline. The moratorium of new permits of primary forest and peatlands in 2011 has had an impact, but also took time to produce an effect on the ground effect (in part as it was a ban on issuing new licences). Interviewees also stressed that better sectoral coordination related to the moratorium and other reforms has been key for the slowdown.
A second set of reforms relate to fire management and peatland protection, sparked by the devastating 2015 forest fires. The interviewees highlight this as a key policy reform by, for example, increasing the accountability of subnational government officials for fire management.
Results-based payments (RBP) or result-based contributions were central in the Letter of Intent between Indonesia and Norway in 2011 and in the new MoU of 2022, although the first payment was not made before in 2022. An RBP-based project of more than USD 100 million was approved by the Green Climate Fund in 2020. RBP has also been implemented at subnational level starting in East Kalimantan and Jambi with external donor support. Some reports indicate positive results, although they are likely to be too location-specific and came too late to have had major impacts on the observed decline in national deforestation figures since 2016.
Private regulation such as certification and corporate pledges show promising signs with an increasing share of oil palm plantations being certified. Yet, breached are reported, and the forest encroachment factor (i.e., the share of new land being converted from forest) has not dropped as much as to be expected. Moreover, certification of pulp production and mining is lagging behind.
Civil society pressure has played a role in particularly two areas, although the exact role and contribution are hard to assess. First, CSOs are active actors on the policy arena, also to influence private sector initiatives and policies. Second, CSOs are important watchdogs for both implementation of public and private regulations and pledges. This has helped “bringing the forests to the court”, as one interviewee observed.
Key commodity prices were relatively stable during the 2016-2020 period, and thus cannot explain much of the decline. Yet, no major increase in the prices of deforestation-risk commodities made the implementation of both public and private policies less costly (both for politicians and producers), and made violations of laws and regulations less profitable, increasing policy effectiveness.
The prices of coal and minerals such as gold and nickel have, however, increased steadily over the period. The nickel price quadrupled between 2016 and 2022. The increasing role of mining in deforestation can largely be explained by the high and increasing profitability, and demand is likely to grow steadily in the coming years due to the global energy transition.
The statistical analysis suggests that up to 1/3 of the reduction in deforestation can be explained by forest scarcity (forest transition). When a province hits ca. 40% forest cover, deforestation tend to decline.
While we conclude that all five hypotheses put forward are relevant to explain the recent decline in deforestation, we tentative conclude that public polices – in combination with a forest transition (scarcity) effect – has been the most important factors. Private policies show more mixed results. Behind the public and private policy changes, civil society has played a key role in policy reforms and in promoting more effective implementation though its watchdog role. Non-increasing agricultural commodity prices have made the implementation of forest conservation policies less costly.
Deforestation is still a profitable activity for land users and (sub)national governments, and forest conservation is a continuous battle, with future challenges emerging: the effectiveness of current policies may weakened over time, political priorities may change, prices of deforestation-risk commodities may rise, and the composition of direct drivers change – requiring a shift in the policy focus.
Recommendations
1. Be ahead of the curve: The forest transition suggests a natural development with decreasing deforestation in low forest cover regions (provinces) and increasing deforestation in high forest cover regions. The major future deforestation threats have moved eastwards in Indonesia. Mining is likely to be a key driver of deforestation in Sulawesi, while food estates, oil palm and pulpwood plantations in Papua are emerging as direct drivers in new deforestation hotspot.
2. Incentives for high-forest, low-deforestation areas: Much focus in the REDD+ discussion has been on reducing emissions from high-deforestation areas, and rightly so. Taking a more long-term view and preventing future increases in deforestation, mechanisms that incentivise the conservation of high-forest, low-deforestation areas are also needed, while noting the challenges of estimating additionality – particularly if carbon credits from these areas enter carbon trading.
3. New deforestation-risk commodities: The deforestation debate in Indonesia has traditionally focussed on timber logs and palm oil. Timber production is in decline, and the share of palm oil-driven deforestation is also declining, although oil palm cultivation is still the main immediate land use after forest clearing. Demand for biodiesel based on palm oil may make it maintain its role as the no. 1 deforestation-risk commodity. Pulp and mining (nickel) have increased its share of direct deforestation drivers, and with pricing of key minerals on the rise this pressure is likely to continue. Plans for large food estates is also likely to make it an increasingly important driver.
4. The energy transition and deforestation: The global energy transition has increased the demand for both renewable energy (palm oil and wood pellets) and minerals (such as nickel). Paradoxically, these also pose a threat to Indonesia’s natural forests, and balancing these trade-offs remains a major challenge both for policy makers and advocacy groups.
5. CSOs watchdog role important for effective implementation: The private sector initiatives are commendable, but their impact hinges on their effective implementation. Clearing new forest land remains a profitable option from a business perspective, and without clear sanctions of violations (both formal and informal such as reputational risk) illegal and semi-illegal forest conversion is likely to continue.
6. Better data on “other agriculture” commodities: The share of “other agriculture” as a direct driver is increasing, yet this remains a black box in many data sets and analyses. More data on what constitutes this driver and their relative importance (including cocoa, coconut, coffee, rice, rubber sugar) are needed to design and implement targeted policies, also related to the EUDR.
7. Transparency in data sets and their uses: Several data sets on deforestation or tree cover loss are available, with quite different primary data sources and forest/deforestation definitions. This creates a wide range of figures, opening for cherry picking and selective uses. Full transparency on definition and data transformations is needed to enable better comparison and detect underlying trends