NHH Brage (Norges Handelshøyskole)
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The Role of Utility in Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Analysis of Utility’s Influence on Sustained Price Growth and Stability
Full text linkThis thesis examines the role of network utility in driving price growth and stability within the cryptocurrency market. While the cryptocurrency space is often characterized by volatility and speculative trading, this study investigates whether utility, measured through key metrics such as fees, revenue, the number of active users, core developer activity, transaction counts, and total value locked (TVL), serves as a critical driver of sustained price growth and reduced price fluctuations.
To answer this question, a composite utility score is derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), with TVL, fees, and revenue emerging as the most significant contributors. Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) reveals that utility imposes upper thresholds on price growth, with effect sizes of 0.249 and 0.278, underscoring the importance of utility as a necessary condition for sustained price growth. However, utility’s effect on rolling volatility is limited, with effect sizes of 0.084 and 0.092, suggesting that price stability is less dependent on network utility and influenced more by external factors.
The NCA findings are reinforced by multiple regression analyses. For price growth, changes in the utility score remain a significant predictor, even after controlling for market capitalization and market cycles, with a strong positive coefficient (0.2276, p < 0.01). By contrast, utility shows a negligible relationship with price stability, where market capitalization (-0.0024, p < 0.05) and bearish trends (-0.0073, p < 0.05) emerge as stronger stabilizing factors.
An event study of Solana network outages highlights the sensitivity of price dynamics to infrastructure reliability and network utility. Price growth consistently declines post-outage reflecting the negative market response to disruptions in network activity and utility. Volatility responses, however, are mixed, indicating that network outages that amplify uncertainty may or may not dampen speculative activity.
Overall, the study demonstrates that utility is a fundamental driver of sustained price growth but plays a limited role in stabilizing volatility. These findings contribute to the literature on cryptocurrency valuation by emphasizing the importance of network functionality for long-term growth potential.This thesis examines the role of network utility in driving price growth and stability within the cryptocurrency market. While the cryptocurrency space is often characterized by volatility and speculative trading, this study investigates whether utility, measured through key metrics such as fees, revenue, the number of active users, core developer activity, transaction counts, and total value locked (TVL), serves as a critical driver of sustained price growth and reduced price fluctuations.
To answer this question, a composite utility score is derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), with TVL, fees, and revenue emerging as the most significant contributors. Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) reveals that utility imposes upper thresholds on price growth, with effect sizes of 0.249 and 0.278, underscoring the importance of utility as a necessary condition for sustained price growth. However, utility’s effect on rolling volatility is limited, with effect sizes of 0.084 and 0.092, suggesting that price stability is less dependent on network utility and influenced more by external factors.
The NCA findings are reinforced by multiple regression analyses. For price growth, changes in the utility score remain a significant predictor, even after controlling for market capitalization and market cycles, with a strong positive coefficient (0.2276, p < 0.01). By contrast, utility shows a negligible relationship with price stability, where market capitalization (-0.0024, p < 0.05) and bearish trends (-0.0073, p < 0.05) emerge as stronger stabilizing factors.
An event study of Solana network outages highlights the sensitivity of price dynamics to infrastructure reliability and network utility. Price growth consistently declines post-outage reflecting the negative market response to disruptions in network activity and utility. Volatility responses, however, are mixed, indicating that network outages that amplify uncertainty may or may not dampen speculative activity.
Overall, the study demonstrates that utility is a fundamental driver of sustained price growth but plays a limited role in stabilizing volatility. These findings contribute to the literature on cryptocurrency valuation by emphasizing the importance of network functionality for long-term growth potential
Stock Behavior Before Earnings Surprises and Potential Illegal Insider Trading: A Comparative Analysis of the Scandinavian Exchanges
Full text linkThis thesis investigates abnormal stock behavior prior to earnings surprises on the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE), Nasdaq Stockholm (OMXS), and Nasdaq Copenhagen (OMXC), with a focus on potential illegal insider trading. Utilizing event study methodology, we examine stock price and trading volume patterns during the event window [-10, +1] around earnings announcements from 2010 to 2023, excluding 2020-2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Earnings surprises are categorized by deviations from analyst consensus at thresholds of ±10%, ±20%, and ±40%, resulting in a dataset of approximately 9,000 earnings announcements across 369 companies.
Our analysis reveals significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) preceding positive earnings surprises, particularly on OMXS and OMXC, with indications of similar patterns on OSE but to a lesser degree. Pre-announcement trading volume is marginally higher on OSE compared to OMXS and OMXC, indicating possible market anticipation. Interestingly, no pre-event CAAR trends are observed for negative earnings surprises, suggesting regulatory constraints on short-selling activity may deter insider trading in such cases.
The study further explores the enforcement of the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) across the three exchanges. We find no consistent correlation between MAR enforcement rates and indications of illegal insider trading, highlighting potential gaps in regulatory effectiveness
Hva driver forwardpremien i EPAD-kontrakter?
Full text linkDenne masteroppgaven undersøker ex-post forwardpremien i månedlige EPAD-kontrakter i det norske kraftmarkedet i perioden 2016-2024. Spesifikt analyseres forwardpremiens eksistens, basisens evne til å predikere fremtidige spotprisforskjeller og variasjoner i forwardpremien over tid, effekten av spotprisenes varians og skjevhet, samt påvirkningen fra eksterne faktorer. Dette danner grunnlaget for problemstillingen: Hvordan påvirkes forwardpremien i EPAD-kontrakter av basis, risikoegenskaper og eksterne faktorer? Gjennom fem hypoteser undersøker vi forwardpremiens variasjon over tid og mellom geografiske områder, samt dens sammenheng med basis, risikoegenskaper og eksterne faktorer.
Innledningsvis vurderes det hvorvidt forwardpremien er signifikant forskjellig fra null (H1). Dette undersøkes ved hjelp av tosidige t-tester for gjennomsnittlige verdier på tvers av ulike perioder og budområder. Resultatene viser at forwardpremien varierer betydelig mellom perioder og områder, uten å avdekke et konsistent mønster i analyseperioden.
Basisens evne til å predikere fremtidige spotprisforskjeller (H2a) og forwardpremiens tidsvariasjon (H2b) analyseres ved bruk av Fama-French-regresjoner. Analysene bekrefter basisens prediktive kraft for spotprisforskjeller i begge perioder. Den gir imidlertid begrenset støtte for tidsvariasjon i forwardpremien, da det mangler en tydelig eller signifikant sammenheng på tvers av områdene.
Risikoegenskapene til spotprisene (H3) vurderes gjennom Bessembinder og Lemmon-modellen (2002), som analyserer hvordan varians og skjevhet i område- og systemprisen påvirker forwardpremien. Resultatene viser at varians og skjevhet har en begrenset innvirkning på forwardpremien, og at effekten varierer mellom perioder og områder.
Effekten av eksterne faktorer (H4) undersøkes ved hjelp av en VAR-modeller, Granger-kausalitetstester og impuls-respons funksjoner. Selv om enkelte faktorer, som temperatur og fyllingsgrad, viser signifikante effekter på forwardpremien i noen områder, fremkommer det ikke noe konsistent mønster på tvers av de eksterne faktorene. Resultatene viser at forwardpremiens egne tidligere verdier har en sterkere signifikant, og mer vedvarende påvirkning på forwardpremien i de norske budområdene
Strategisk regnskapsanalyse og verdsettelse av Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
Full text linkI denne masteroppgaven har vi utført en strategisk regnskapsanalyse og verdsettelse av Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA. Vi benyttet fundamental verdivurdering som hovedteknikk, og komparativ verdivurdering som supplerende verdivurderingsmetode. Formålet var å estimere egenkapitalverdien til selskapet per 31.12.2024.
Gjennom den strategiske analysen fant vi at Norwegian vil ha en strategisk fordel på omtrent 1% fremover. Norwegians ressursfordel ble vurdert til å være 0%. Dette som følge av at det ikke ble identifisert interne ressurser som kan gi opphav til en ressursfordel for selskapet per i dag eller på lang sikt. Videre forventet vi at bransjefordelen de siste årene har vært lav og vil være rundt 1% i fremtiden. Forventningen om rentekutt, vekst i BNP, implementering av KI, samt den økte konsentrasjonen i flybransjen i Europa, taler for at det vil være en bransjefordel. Størrelsen på fordelen begrenses imidlertid av moderate til lave inngangsbarrierer, høye utgangsbarrierer, samt tilstedeværelsen av bærekraftige substitutter.
Den strategiske analysen og historiske rentabilitetsanalysen dannet sammen grunnlaget for utarbeidelsen av fremtidsregnskapet og fremtidige avkastningskrav, som videre ble benyttet for å estimere verdien av egenkapitalen. Gjennom den fundamentale verdsettelsen kom vi frem til et verdiestimat per aksje på 12,137kr. Dette tilsvarer en P/B på 1,6, noe som tilsier at selskapet vil ha en liten strategisk fordel. Den strategiske fordelen forventes å være noe høyere på lang sikt enn på kort sikt. Dette blant annet som følge av at selskapet vil stå ovenfor en finansieringsulempe de neste årene som forventes å elimineres på lang sikt. Usikkerheten i vårt verdiestimat ble undersøkt gjennom en simulerings- og sensitivitetsanalyse, som viste at det foreligger stor usikkerhet i verdiestimatet. Det endelige verdiestimatet fra den fundamentale verdsettelsen ble 12,10kr, etter vi justerte for kortsiktig konkursrisiko.
Avslutningsvis ble det gjennomført en komparativ verdsettelse ved bruk av multiplikatormetoden, som ga et verdiestimat per aksje på 16,34kr. Basert på en vekting av verdiestimatene fra den fundamentale verdsettelsen og den komparative verdsettelsen oppnådde vi et endelig verdiestimat på 12,524kr per aksje. Børskursen per 05.12.2024 var 11,645kr, 7% lavere enn vårt verdiestimat.
Vår anbefalte handelsstrategi ble følgelig: HOL
From the Lab to Wall Street
Full text linkThis thesis examines the role of R&D-intensity in predicting underpricing in biotechnology IPOs during the Covid-19 pandemic years of 2020–2021. R&D-intensity, measured as R&D expenditures relative to market capitalization, is hypothesized to reduce information asymmetry, making valuations simpler and less prone to underpricing. Regression analysis reveals that R&D-intensity exhibits a negative coefficient in all the samples conducted and bears some statistical significance. The findings suggest that high R&D-intensity is linked to firms further along the product development pipeline, enhancing transparency and reducing valuation uncertainties. Furthermore, the analysis highlights differences in underpricing between the biotechnology and technology sectors. Finally, the thesis discovered that the presence of venture capital equity investments in biotechnology companies reduced underpricing. Further inquiries are recommended to explore the R&D and underpricing relationship in more detailed data sets during an extended time frame
When Life Gives You Lemons: Buy Oranges
Full text linkThis study analyzes wholesale data to estimate demand models for fruit and vegetables, focusing on recovering the price elasticity of demand across different product variants and customer segments. All elasticity estimates are derived from log-log regression models, where some models include a cross-price variable to capture substitution or complementary effects. Furthermore, we consider various forecasting models to predict future realized demand. The following elasticity estimates and demand quantities serve as inputs in a revenue maximization task, a framework designated to optimize price for an upcoming week. This framework can be characterized as a multi-customer, single-product optimization model.
The regression results reveal clear differences in elasticity among products and segments. Products like cucumbers and oranges are elastic, showing strong responses to price changes, while others, such as lettuce and grapes, are inelastic. Substitution effects are also observed, where price changes in products like avocados influence demand for other items in the same product category. Segments relying heavily on spot pricing seem to have higher elasticities, as these customers are more exposed to weekly price fluctuations. XGBoost delivers the most accurate demand forecasts, especially for products with seasonal and trend-driven demand. These forecasts are used to optimize prices, as per our example leading to a hypothetical increased total revenue of NOK 6,937 across the analyzed variants.
By analyzing price elasticity, businesses can better understand how their customers respond to price changes and make smarter, data-driven decisions. Our contribution to research lies in estimating elasticities further up in the supply chain, providing insights into pricing dynamics and customer responsiveness at a level less explored in existing literature. Future research could expand on these findings by exploring variable elasticity, cross-price effects, and cost data to improve our framework
The Value of Choices in the Defined Contribution Pension Scheme
Full text linkThe purpose of the thesis is to investigate what affects future pension payouts in the defined contribution pension scheme. We have based our research on data from a Norwegian pension provider and a self-developed survey. Using multilinear regression and descriptive analysis, we have mapped the current trends in the Norwegian defined contribution pension market and investigated the underlying drivers of different factors. Using a self-constructed pension calculator, we have forecasted how factors affect future pension payouts.
The most important demographic characteristics that affect the frequency of active pension choices include gender, age, level of education, and salary. We find that expected payoff and change of risk are the most important reasons motivating active choices. Pension providers, friends and family, and employers are reported to be the main sources of information about pensions.
The most important factors that we find affect pension payouts are investment profile, retirement age, and contribution percentage. To increase awareness of these factors, we propose the further development and distribution of a dynamic pension calculator which will serve as an educational tool for all people with a defined contribution pension scheme.The purpose of the thesis is to investigate what affects future pension payouts in the defined contribution pension scheme. We have based our research on data from a Norwegian pension provider and a self-developed survey. Using multilinear regression and descriptive analysis, we have mapped the current trends in the Norwegian defined contribution pension market and investigated the underlying drivers of different factors. Using a self-constructed pension calculator, we have forecasted how factors affect future pension payouts.
The most important demographic characteristics that affect the frequency of active pension choices include gender, age, level of education, and salary. We find that expected payoff and change of risk are the most important reasons motivating active choices. Pension providers, friends and family, and employers are reported to be the main sources of information about pensions.
The most important factors that we find affect pension payouts are investment profile, retirement age, and contribution percentage. To increase awareness of these factors, we propose the further development and distribution of a dynamic pension calculator which will serve as an educational tool for all people with a defined contribution pension scheme
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production: A Strategic Fit for Equinor? An exploratory case study of the Norwegian SAF production industry and production prospects at the Mongstad refinery
Full text linkWith increasingly high levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the aviation industry is calling for technological innovation to align with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Nowadays, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is widely recognised as having the greatest potential to curb the aviation industry’s CO2 emissions. However, despite this, SAF is characterised by limited global production volumes and represents only a small fraction of global aviation fuel demand. There are currently no operational SAF production facilities in Norway and its adoption within the domestic aviation sector remains extremely modest. This thesis thereby aims to analyse the macroeconomic environment surrounding SAF in Norway in order to assess whether Equinor should develop the production of SAF at the Mongstad refinery.
This thesis firstly explores the opportunities and barriers surrounding the SAF market in Norway by using the PESTEL framework. The analysis reveals that the Norwegian SAF industry is characterised by high market uncertainty due to the lack of regulatory frameworks and economic incentives to encourage the domestic production and usage of SAF. Norwegian producers are thereby found to be at a disadvantage compared to EU SAF producers who benefit from clear regulatory frameworks set out by EU energy mandates and initiatives. For this reason, the current high cost of producing SAF in a market characterised by uncertainty is a major barrier to the establishment of a domestic SAF production industry.
Drawing upon the analysis of the macroeconomic environment surrounding SAF in Norway, this thesis has used the SWOT framework to assess whether Equinor should develop the production of SAF at the Mongstad refinery. While this thesis highlights that Equinor has access to great infrastructure and assets that grant it a competitive advantage, it reveals that the company should hold off investing in a SAF production facility until greater technological maturity and domestic market predictability are achieved to mitigate investment risks in this high-risk industry. Once this is achieved, the thesis concludes that Equinor should invest in a Power-to-Liquid facility at the Mongstad refinery to develop the production of eSAF. This conclusion is based on key factors including feedstock availability, cost considerations, and potential market prospects specified in the analysis
Flexible Inflation Targeting: A Road to Stability?
Full text linkSince 2001, Norway has adopted flexible inflation targeting as the framework for monetary policy, with the primary goal initially set at ensuring stable price growth of 2.5 percent. This target was later adjusted to two percent, alongside an increased focus on the economy and financial stability in interest rate decisions. These changes are reflected in the adjustments to monetary policy throughout the period.
This thesis examines the extent to which the inflation targeting framework has contributed to economic and financial stability. Since its introduction, monetary policy has gradually become more flexible, enabling more sustainable trade-offs between different objectives. We have used the extended loss function to gain insight into how the central bank prioritizes various economic goals when setting the policy rate. Additionally, we conducted trend and cycle analyses to examine the development of economic indicators during the period of inflation targeting.
The findings show that monetary policy has largely contributed to stability. Inflation has remained consistently low and stable over the period, despite economic shocks that have resulted in high price growth in recent years. Furthermore, we observe that business cycle fluctuations have become more moderate since the financial crisis. Although the pandemic disrupted this trend, our analysis concludes that monetary policy has helped limit the depth and duration of economic downturns, partly by supporting rapid economic recovery.
When it comes to financial stability, there have been periods of instability. An instability appears to be increasing today, posing a risk to monetary policy. Nevertheless, monetary policy has so far managed to handle financial imbalances relatively well, particularly after financial stability became a greater priority in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Towards the end, we also examined how the interplay between monetary and fiscal policy has become increasingly important for economic development, as well as how transparency and communication enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, we assessed how climate change and environmental considerations influence monetary policy, an aspect that is becoming increasingly important in present times
Dokken - kampen om kantsteinen
Full text linkOppgaven er utarbeidet som en del av forskningsprosjektet CityFreight og har som mål å undersøke hvordan det kan tilrettelegges for effektiv varetransport på Dokken, et område som står overfor en omfattende transformasjon. Når over 255 dekar frigjøres fra havnevirksomhet, gir dette en mulighet til å omforme området til en moderne bydel.
Et gjentakende fenomen i byutviklingsprosjekter er at varetransport – en kritisk funksjon i urbane områder – nedprioriteres i planleggingsprosessene. Samtidig forsterker urbanisering, vekst i netthandel og press på tilgjengelige arealer behovet for innovative og bærekraftige løsninger for varelevering. Oppgaven retter derfor søkelyset mot hvordan man kan tilrettelegge for varetransport som en integrert del av utviklingen av Dokken.
Studien er bygget på en kvalitativ tilnærming med semistrukturerte intervjuer og dokumentanalyse som metoder for datainnsamling. Respondentene inkluderer totalt 22 representanter fra Bergen kommune, logistikk- og transportbransjen, samarbeidsorganisasjoner og andre relevante aktører. For å belyse problemstillingen på en helhetlig måte, har forskningen blitt strukturert rundt tre hovedtemaer: 1) Utfordringer knyttet til varelevering i byområder, 2) samarbeid og medvirkning i byutviklingsprosesser, og 3) prioritering av varetransport i byplanlegging.
Funnene viser at varetransportører møter en rekke utfordringer i byområdene, inkludert mangel på tilrettelagte losseområder, utilstrekkelige varemottak og begrenset fremkommelighet. Videre indikerer forskningen at disse utfordringene ofte er et resultat av at varetransport blir nedprioritert i byplanlegging. Studien identifiserer flere underliggende årsaker til denne problematikken, med mål om å øke bevisstheten og legge grunnlaget for konkrete tiltak som kan forhindre lignende utfordringer på Dokken. Blant de identifiserte årsakene er manglende kunnskap blant beslutningstakere, mangelfull inkludering av relevante aktører og uklare ansvarsforhold. Videre fremkommer det at Bergen kommune har påbegynt arbeidet med varetransport i forbindelse med Dokken-prosjektet, men oppfølgingen og gjennomføringen av dette arbeidet fremstår som uklar. Det er likevel forventet at mer tydelige retningslinjer for varetransport vil bli inkludert i en senere fase av prosjektet.
Avslutningsvis presenterer vi flere konkrete tiltak som kan bidra til å tilrettelegge for varelevering på Dokken. Etablering av en dedikert varetransportgruppe trekkes frem som et tiltak for å sikre oppfølging og kompetanse gjennom hele utviklingsprosessen. Videre fremhever vi løsninger som bemannede lossesoner, mikrohuber og hentepunkter som potensielle løsninger for å effektivisere vareleveringen. For å støtte ambisjonen om nullutslipp på Dokken, diskuteres også utbygging av ladeinfrastruktur. Målet er ikke å definere én endelig løsning, men å fremheve flere mulige tiltak som kan bidra til å redusere trafikkbelastningen, effektivisere vareleveringen og skape et mer bærekraftig og funksjonelt bymiljø