NHH Brage (Norges Handelshøyskole)
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Competing with precision: incentives for developing predictive biomarker tests
Get PDFWe study the incentives of drug producers to develop predictive biomarkers, taking into account strategic interaction between drug producers and health plans. For this purpose, we develop a two-dimensional spatial framework that allows us to capture the informational role of biomarkers and their effects on price competition and treatment choices. Although biomarkers increase the information available to prescribers, we identify an anticompetitive effect on the prices set by producers of therapeutically substitutable drugs. We also find that better information about each patient's most therapeutically appropriate drug does not necessarily lead to more efficient treatment outcomes.publishedVersio
The Price of Cost-effectiveness Thresholds
Get PDFHealth systems around world are increasingly adopting cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to inform decisions about access and reimbursement. We study how CE thresholds imposed by a health plan for granting reimbursement affect drug producers pricing incentives and patients access to new drugs. Analysing a sequential pricing game between an incumbent drug producer and a potential entrant with a new drug, we show that CE thresholds may have adverse effects for payers and patients. A stricter CE threshold may induce the incumbent to switch pricing strategy from entry accommodation to entry deterrence, limiting patients access to the new drug. Otherwise, irrespective of whether entry is deterred or accommodated, a stricter CE threshold is never pro-competitive and may in fact facilitate a collusive outcome with higher prices of both drugs. Compared to a laissez-faire policy, the use of CE thresholds can only increase the surplus of a health plan if it leads to entry deterrence in which the price reduction by the incumbent necessary to deter entry outweighs the health loss to patients not getting access to the new drug
Comparative Investment Analysis of Wind and Nuclear Energy: Assessing the Impact of Changes in the Electricity Mix and Required Government Support for Investment Parity
Get PDFNuclear energy is once again in the spotlight in Europe, due to recent technological advancements and geopolitical challenges. Our study presents an investment analysis framework that compares the prospects of onshore and offshore wind projects, as well as traditional and modular nuclear projects. We evaluate the investment potential of each option, both with and without government financial support, similar to the system in place in France. Our study also includes an investment parity analysis, which determines the level of government financial support required to make modular nuclear power plants as attractive as wind projects under various circumstances. Our results show that, without government support, onshore wind projects are the most attractive investment option, followed by offshore wind projects. However, in certain circumstances and based on specific metrics, modular nuclear projects can be more appealing. Interestingly, our findings indicate that with French government support, offshore wind projects offer better investment prospects than onshore wind projects. To achieve investment parity with the most attractive wind project, modular nuclear power plants, which have a relevant advantage in terms of shorter construction times than wind projects, would require a feed-in premium similar to that offered to offshore wind projects
Probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices using an augmented LMARX-model
Get PDFIn this paper, we study the performance of prediction intervals in situations applicable to electricity markets. In order to do so we first introduce an extension of the logistic mixture autoregressive with exogenous variables (LMARX) model, see (Wong, Li, 2001), where we allow for multiplicative seasonality and lagged mixture probabilities. The reason for using this model is the prevalence of spikes in electricity prices. This feature creates a quickly varying, and sometimes bimodal, forecast distribution. The model is fitted to the price data from the electricity market forecasting competition GEFCom2014. Additionally, we compare the outcomes of our presumably more accurate representation of reality, the LMARX model, with other widely utilized approaches that have been employed in the literature
The legal incidence of ad valorem taxes matters
Get PDFIt is well known that, for a specific tax, its economic incidence does not depend on which side of the market has the legal obligation to pay the tax. In this paper, we show that, for an ad valorem tax, this legal incidence does matter for the economic incidence. In particular, when a government imposes an ad valorem tax rate on the sale of a commodity, the resulting reduction in the market equilibrium level of sales will be larger when sellers are obliged to pay the tax than when buyers are obliged to pay the tax
New Insights into Freelancers' and Independent Contractors' Experiences
Get PDFThis PhD thesis provides new insights into freelancers’ and independent contractors’
experiences. This group of workers has increasing relevance to companies and organization
scholars. Many countries have seen significant growth in their numbers, and we can expect this
to continue. These workers are also theoretically interesting because their work arrangement
differs substantially from those of employees. However, current organization theories have
primarily been developed from studies of employees and have them at their centre, while
organization scholars are yet to fully acknowledge freelancers’ and independent contractors’
increasing relevance and theoretical uniqueness. As organization scholars, we are therefore
currently less capable of describing the experiences of freelancers than what is called for,
considering their increasing relevance and theoretical uniqueness.
I aim to help fill this gap in the literature on freelancing and independent contracting.
To achieve this, I have gathered qualitative and quantitative primary data and conducted three
studies, all of which are oriented towards describing some of the experiences of freelancers and
independent contractors. The foci of Studies 1, 2, and 3 are, respectively, contract managers’
on-the-job challenges, freelance journalists’ professional identification, and freelance
journalists’ work–life balance. The first study, which is of a qualitative nature, uses an
exploratory research design. In Studies 2 and 3, which are of a quantitative nature, I compare
freelancers’ experiences with those of employees.
Through these three studies, this PhD thesis offers several contributions to the literature
on freelancing and independent contracting. Viewing contract managers’ experiences in light
of the inherent theoretical tension between independent contracting and management, the first
study provides new insights into the relational and operational challenges that contract
managers experience. Building on insights rooted in social identity theory, the second study
improves our understanding of how freelancers view themselves as professionals. Through
contrasting a resource perspective with a ‘stress of higher status’ perspective, the third study
enhances our understanding of freelancers’ work–life balance.
Regarding empirical contributions, this thesis contains two quantitative studies that
compare freelancers’ and employees’ experiences. This is an important contribution to the
extant literature on freelancers’ experiences, which is predominantly of a qualitative nature and
without empirical comparisons. More, by sampling from contract managers and journalists, this
thesis sheds light on the experiences of a group of workers that have received limited scholarly
attention to date. Sampling from these occupations is also beneficial for theory development
Who benefits from postponement in multi-period supply channel optimization?
Get PDFDuopolistic price-setting supply channels competing in a bilevel framework have been extensively studied in single-period (static) settings. However, such supply channels typically face uncertain and time-varying demand; and thus require a dynamic analysis. Dynamic channel optimization while addressing uncertain demand has received limited attention due to the highly nested structure of the ensuing equilibrium problems. The level of complexity rises when demand is dependent on current and previous prices. We consider a decentralized (non-cooperative) supply channel whose members, a manufacturer and a retailer, competing in a Stackelberg framework, must address the demand for a perishable commodity within a multi-period discrete-time setting. In the first part of the paper, we propose a constructive theorem providing an explicit solution algorithm to obtain equilibrium states at each period. Next, we prove that the resulting equilibria are subgame perfect. In the second part, we allow the retailer (follower) to postpone the supply and pricing decisions until demand uncertainty is resolved in each period. Using subgame perfection of the equilibria, we propose solution algorithms that use the delayed information obtained by the postponement. Our comparative theorems and simulated scenarios indicate that postponement strategies are always beneficial for the follower, and, for a centralized (cooperative) channel. Whereas in a decentralized channel, due to vertical competition, there may be scenarios wherein postponement strategies, i.e., access to extra information, turn out to be detrimental to the manufacturer (leader).Who benefits from postponement in multi-period supply channel optimization?publishedVersio
Poleward spawning of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is facilitated by ocean warming but triggered by energetic constraints
Get PDFThe Northeast Atlantic mackerel is an income breeder with indeterminate fecundity, spawning in multiple batches at optimal temperatures around 11°C in the upper water column during February–July along the continental shelf from 36–62°N. Based on macroscopic staging of gonads (N ∼62000) collected in 2004–2021, we detected an on-going extension of spawning activities into the Norwegian Sea feeding area (62–75°N), reaching stable levels around 2012 onwards. This poleward expansion increased as more fish entered the area, whilst the maximum proportions of spawners concurrently dropped from about 75 to 15% from May to July. Detailed histological examinations in 2018 confirmed the macroscopic results but clarified that 38% of the spawning-capable females in July terminated their spawning by atresia. We suggest that increased access to suitable spawning areas (≥10°C), following ocean warming from 2002 onwards, functions as a proximate cause behind the noticed expansion, whereas the ultimate trigger was the historic drop in body growth and condition about 10 years later. Driven by these energetic constraints, mackerel likely spawn in the direction of high prey concentrations to rebuild body resources and secure the future rather than current reproduction success. The ambient temperature that far north is considered suboptimal for egg and larval survival.publishedVersio
Beskatning av multinasjonale selskaper i Beskatning av multinasjonale selskaper i den digital e økonomi en: En studie av dagens beskatning av multinasjonale digitale selskaper og OECD sin topilarløsning for forbedret fordeling
No full textDigitalisering av økonomien har bidratt til fremvekst av nye forretningsmodeller, og gjort det mulig å drive virksomhet i stater uten å være fysisk tilstedeværende. Dagens fordeling av internasjonal beskatningsrett avgjøres basert på hvor et selskap har fast driftssted. Dette åpner for at multinasjonale digitale selskaper kan bedrive overskuddsflytting ved å etablere fast driftssted i lavskattestater. Som en konsekvens av dette har det oppstått et misforhold mellom hvor verdiene skapes og hvor beskatningsretten foreligger.
Organisasjoner som EU og OECD har vært pådrivere for å få på plass et oppdatert multilateralt regelverk for selskapsbeskatning. Det mest omfattende forslaget som er foreslått i denne sammenhengen er OECD sin topilarløsning, som er en del av prosjektet knyttet til uthuling av skattegrunnlag og overskuddsflytting (BEPS). Pilar 1 foreslår å allokere deler av selskapsoverskuddet til hvor brukerne er lokalisert, mens pilar 2 innebærer et forslag om innføring av en global minimumsskatt.
Denne utredningen identifiserer manglene ved dagens beskatning basert på fast driftssted, og vurderer om topilarløsningen vil styrke den internasjonale skattelovgivningen med hensyn på digitale selskaper. Vi vurderer at beskatning etter fast driftssted ikke er tilstrekkelig for å beskatte multinasjonale digitale selskaper i dag. Årsakene til dette er at dagens regelverk ikke hensyntar at digitale selskaper kan skape verdi uten fysisk tilstedeværelse, har en betydelig andel immaterielle eiendeler og stor grad av brukermedvirkning. Videre vurderer vi at OECD sin topilarløsning vil være et verdifullt tilskudd som vil styrke den internasjonale skattelovgivningen. Det vesentlige er at løsningen er tilpasset digitale forretningsmodeller og dermed adresserer hovedutfordringene ved dagens beskatning. Topilarløsningen vurderes å være i tråd med grunnleggende prinsipper for utforming av internasjonale skattelovgivning. Forslaget er også svært gjennomarbeidet og representerer en felles enighet blant 145 stater. På lengre sikt mener vi at topilarløsningen bør utvides til å omfatte en større andel av de multinasjonale digitale selskapene, uten at dette endrer vår overordnede vurdering om at det vil styrke internasjonal skattelovgivning.nhhma
Transformative Effects of Tokenization and Wholesale CBDC on Bonds : An exploratory study of the technologies’ interplay and disruptive effects on the bond market's value chain
Get PDFDistributed ledger technology (DLT) and tokenization are emerging technologies with the potential to transform financial markets through digitization and programmability. Presenting assets as digital tokens on blockchain platforms, new pathways for improving trading, ownership transfer, and servicing become possible. This thesis explores the utilization of tokenization and DLT in bond markets and wholesale central bank digital currencies (CBDC).
The analysis is guided by the research question: How can tokenization and DLT-based wholesale central bank digital currency transform traditional bond markets and their value chain? Findings from existing literature and expert interviews show that bonds exhibit frictions, including manual processing and delayed settlement. DLT could reduce these inefficiencies by enabling atomic delivery versus payment settlement, automating manual processes, streamlining ownership tracking and asset servicing through smart contracts.
Realizing these opportunities requires modernizing not only the structure of the asset but also the cash leg of transactions. A potential DLT-based wholesale CBDC represents central bank-issued money natively compatible with tokenized asset settlements. With programmable tokens and wholesale CBDC, instant clearing, and atomic settlement become achievable on integrated platforms.
Key findings indicate potential efficiency opportunities in bond markets. However, quantifying forecasted cost reductions involves uncertainty. Consultancy estimates range from 24% to 43% savings, but realizing such gains requires overcoming complex barriers, including interoperability, transition costs, system integration, legal framework, and altering established intermediary roles.
For market participants, trusting unfamiliar DLT codes poses a barrier that could be reduced if central banks include the technology in CBDC solutions, given their trustworthiness in Western economies. This will likely involve financial regulation to ensure accountability, security, and stability. While the technology offers theoretical improvements, translating into real-world disruption requires overcoming integration hurdles. This thesis provides insights into the technological promises and adoption realities that must be addressed before DLT can transform bond markets.nhhma