NHH Brage (Norges Handelshøyskole)
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Norway: A War Profiteer or Equitable Market Participant?" How much of Norway’s 2022 natural gas export revenues to the EU can be explained by the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on natural gas prices using Russian supply shortfall of pipeline gas as a proxy . A Structural VAR Approach
Get PDFOn the 24th of February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The following months were
characterized by major supply disruptions of Russian pipeline gas, soaring prices, and record
revenues for Norwegian natural gas exports. This resulted in prominent political figures
accusing Norway of being a war profiteer. In this thesis, we estimate how much of Norway ́s
2022 revenues from natural gas export to the EU can be explained by the influence of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict on natural gas prices – using Russian supply shortfall of pipeline gas
as a proxy.
We construct a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the EU-27 natural gas
market. The main drivers of the natural gas price, in addition to the volume of Russian supply
shortfall, are used in the SVAR model. Based on economic theory, the model has been
constrained such that shocks in the individual drivers only affect other drivers
contemporaneously if this reaction can be supported from a theoretical standpoint. This allows
us to disentangle the relationship between the variables and it helps with interpreting the result
and validating the model. The model is built with data on a daily frequency for seven key
drivers of the natural gas price from 2016 - 2022. Utilizing a Historical Decomposition (HD),
we break down the natural gas price changes into contributions from structural shocks in our
model variables.
We find the price of coal and Russian supply shortfall to explain the majority of the
fluctuations in the natural gas price over 2022. The share of the fluctuations in the Natural gas
price that is explained by the Supply Shortfall in the HD is extracted. This share is multiplied
with Norwegian export volumes, and the natural gas price, to estimate the Norwegian natural
gas export revenues of 2022. This approach attributes 334 billion NOK, or 27.18%, of
Norway’s natural gas revenues for 2022 to the Russian supply shortfall. This estimate nuances
the debate on Norway as a war profiteer as it indicates how much of the revenues can be
attributed to the war. Context and validity are established by comparing our estimate to the
government-published historical natural gas revenues, including 2022.nhhma
Assessing the Impact of the Iberian Exception on Day-Ahead Prices in Spain : A Difference in Difference and Quantile Regression Approach
Get PDFThe energy crisis of 2021 and 2022 has had severe consequences for Europe. The skyhigh
energy prices have reduced economic growth, created inflation, and increased GHG
emissions. In an effort to tackle the record high prices, Spain and Portugal have been
granted an exception by the EU to implement a cap on the price of gas used for generating
electricity. The price cap, best known as the Iberian exception, has sought to limit the
impact of volatile gas prices in the electricity market by decoupling the gas price from
the electricity price. Within the context of the crisis, it is vital to assess whether the
implemented measures have achieved their objectives.
This thesis studies the Iberian exception's impact on day-ahead electricity prices in Spain.
By estimating a difference in difference model, we find a causal effect of the Iberian
exception on day-ahead prices, confirming that the instrument does reduce electricity
prices. Furthermore, the results from our quantile regression models show that the gas
cap has reduced electricity prices across the price distribution, and reduced price volatility.
The results confirm a partial decoupling of the gas price and the electricity price, and the
price reducing effect of the instrument is only evident in conjunction with the gas price.
While our thesis provides evidence that the Iberian exception has been efficient in reaching
its goal, it also highlights multiple adverse effects. The decoupling of gas and electricity
prices has led to increased gas generation, alongside increased exports to France, thereby
benefitting French consumers. Our analysis show that the Iberian exception can be
considered a success in Spain. However, based on our results we do not recommend similar
interventions in other European countries, as the adverse effects would exceed the benefits.nhhma
Does Analyst Affiliation Matter? Analyzing Performance of Security Analyst Recommendations Subsequent fPO) Loan Syndication) and MBA Events.
Get PDFThis thesis examines the differences in the value of analyst consensus recommendations
subsequent to IPOs, syndicated loans, and M&A deals depending on their affiliation status.
Relying on recommendations issued on U.S. firms between January 2002 and December
2020, we document statistically significant differences between affiliated and non-affiliated
analysts subsequent to IPOs and M&A deals. However, subsequent to syndicated loans,
we find no statistically significant differences between the analysts. Stocks with the least
favorable recommendations from non-affiliated analysts generate a monthly abnormal
gross return of -2.665 percent subsequent to IPOs. Contrarily, stocks with the least
favorable recommendations from affiliated analysts generate a monthly abnormal gross
return of -3.259 percent subsequent to M&A deals. The results suggest that affiliated
analysts' subsequent M&A deals possess informational advantages, while subsequent IPOs
they reveal a tendency to issue biased recommendations.nhhma
Taking the competitor’s pill: when combination therapies enter pharmaceutical markets
Get PDFWe study the competitive effects of combination therapies in pharmaceutical markets, which crucially hinge on the additional therapeutic value of combinatory use of drugs and the therapeutic substitutability with the most relevant monotherapy. With large additional therapeutic value, the introduction of combination therapies leads to higher prices and, somewhat paradoxically, may reduce the health plan's surplus. Although combination therapies imply that drugs become both substitutes and complements, we show that drug prices increase if the firms are allowed to coordinate their prices. Allowing for price discrimination might increase allocational efficiency, but only at the expense of higher purchasing costs
Matched Dispatching in Randomized Settings
Get PDFThis paper examines some problems of matched dispatching in some different random settings. The context of presentation is that of a reality show with a lineup of the participants, and according to some probabilistic selection rule, some participants are pairwise matched to teams while some are excluded. We consider mainly two cases of induced randomness, one based on random ordering of participants, and one based on coin-flipping, and consider both linear and circular lineups. Questions of fairness are discussed, and some alternative schemes are examined
MMP-Elections: Equal Influence and Controlled Assembly Size
Get PDFIn an MMP election (Mixed Member Proportional) of a legislature, a QP-ballot supports party Q in a single-seat constituency and a list of candidates from P. With ꙍ(j) constituency seats won and list support in z(Pj) ballots, party Pj
wins α(j) list seats, so that ꙍ(j)+α(j) becomes proportional to z(Pj).
The pivotal party, Pj*, has the highest of all ratios ꙍ(j)/z(Pj). Proportionality implies, for all Pj passing some threshold, that [ꙍ(j)+α(j)]/z(Pj) ≥ ꙍ(j*)/z(Pj*).
In the smallest proportional assembly, all ≥ are equalities and α(j*)=0.
The pivotal party’s list support, z(Pj*), is naturally volatile. An election with α(j*)=0 tells that z(Pj*) list votes were wasted, and many voters learn it. Thus, between Bundestag elections 2017 and 2021, z(Pj*) dropped significantly. The smallest possible size of a proportional assembly rose from 709 to 794 seats, while the legal norm is 598.
But an ad-hoc law of 2020 abandoned the proportionality rule, shrinking the assembly from 794 to 736 seats.
ꙍ(j) measures and records the success of party Pj in the single-seat tallies; it also records how much α(j) is reduced by Pj’s constituency success. The paper compares this”traditional accounting” and“faithful accounting”: The latter records a QiPj-ballot, with Qi as constituency winner, with a tiny seat fraction that reduces α(j). Traditional accounting treats party Pj as a basic entity. Faithful accounting replaces it by the set Λ(Pj) of voters with list vote for Pj.
This is a paradigm shift: Traditional accounting works even if constituency votes and list votes are collected in separate ballot boxes. But in faithful accounting, each ballot’s combination of Qi and Pj is essential.
Main results: The change from traditional to faithful accounting brings the assembly size under control. A large inequality in voters influence is substantially reduced
CBDC and bank profitability in Norway : An empirical study on the impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on bank profitability in Norway
Get PDFIn our empirical study, we examine the impact of a Central Bank Digital Currency on
the profitability of Norwegian banks, building on the analytical approach developed by
Bellia and Calès (2023). We select a sample of Norwegian banks, with data over the past
decade (2013-2022). We assess the sensitivity of bank profitability in regard to deposit
withdrawals following CBDC introduction. Using quantile regressions, we estimate the
conditional profit distribution of a representative bank. We then introduce a shock factor
on the volume of deposits that would be substituted by CBDC. Our findings indicate that
banks are not significantly affected by a low adoption rate of CBDC. However, the large
demand scenarios indicate that a high adpotion rate may pose challenges, especially for
small banks that rely heavily on deposits.nhhma
Klar, ferdig, hvordan skal vi starte? Et felteksperiment om oppstartsaktiviteter i team på videregående skoler
Get PDFDe første minuttene i et team legger ofte sterke føringer på hvordan teamet vil fungere, og kan være kritisk for hvordan teamet presterer. Denne masterutredningen utforsker oppstartsaktiviteters direkte effekt på de objektive og subjektive prestasjonene til teamene i studien. Deretter undersøkes det hvordan oppstartsaktivitetene påvirker prosessvariablene støttende atferd, oppgavefokus og psykologisk trygghet. Videre, utforskes prosessvariablenes effekt på objektiv- og subjektiv prestasjon, samt intervensjonenes effekt på objektiv- og subjektiv prestasjon mediert av prosessvariablene.
Studien har en deduktiv tilnærming og er et felteksperiment. Eksperimentet ble utført på ca. 800 elever fordelt på 143 team ved ni videregående skoler som deltok i innovasjonscamper i regi av Ungt Entreprenørskap og NCE Seafood Innovation, høstsemesteret 2023. Under gjennomføringen av studien har elevteamene på skolene blitt delt inn i tre grupper. Eksperimentgruppen hvor vi gjennomførte 30 minutter med Start Smart-intervensjonen, Teambuildingsgruppen hvor teambuildingsaktiviteten «to sannheter og en løgn» ble gjennomført i 30 minutter, og kontrollgruppen uten noe form for manipulasjon. Start Smart er et verktøy for å sikre effektiv oppstart og utvikling av team og grupper, hvor team skal utforske og avklare viktige tema for teamsamarbeidet. Aktiviteten «to sannheter og en løgn» legger til rette for at man skal bli bedre kjent med hverandre på en vennlig og avslappet måte.
Vi har samlet inn kvantitativ data gjennom en digital spørreundersøkelse, og objektivt resultat fra dommerpanelene under casekonkurransene i innovasjonscampene. Vi har også samlet inn supplerende kvalitative data i form av observasjoner.
Vi finner at oppstartsaktiviteter ikke har signifikant effekt på verken prosess eller prestasjon. Vi ser likevel at teamene som har gjennomført «to sannheter og en løgn» presterer best objektivt, og at disse teamene også har en tendens til høyere gjennomsnittscore på støttende atferd og psykologisk trygghet. Vi konkluderer basert på resultatene at det ikke er hensiktsmessig at elevene som deltar i innovasjonscampene bruker tid på oppstartsaktiviteter av typene vi har benyttet i eksperimentet. Samlet sett indikerer funnene kompleksiteten i å forstå teamdynamikk blant videregåendeelever, og antyder at tilpasninger av oppstartsverktøy og tilnærminger kan være nødvendige for å oppnå optimal effekt i denne konteksten.nhhma