NHH Brage (Norges Handelshøyskole)
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Kampen for tilværelsen i næringslivet : En prediksjonsanalyse av selskapskonkurser under finanskrisen og koronakrisen, med tilhørende analyse av seleksjonsmekanismer i krisene.
Get PDFDenne kvantitative studien har som hensikt å formidle hvordan seleksjon i det norske
næringslivets blir påvirket i krisetider. Studien tar utgangspunkt i to av de største krisene
vi har sett i moderne fredstid, finanskrisen i 2008-2010 og koronakrisen i 2020-2022. De
to krisene hadde svært ulike underliggende årsaker, men i denne oppgaven fokuseres det
på de økonomiske forskjellene mellom dem. Finanskrisen startet i 2008 og utspilte seg i
stor grad som en typisk finanskrise preget av kredittmangel og høy gjeld. Koronakrisen
var derimot preget av en generøs kontantstøtteordning fra Regjeringen, for å dempe de
økonomiske slagene krisen medførte. Formålet med denne studien er å undersøke hvorvidt
seleksjonsprosessene har blitt forstyrret i disse krisene. Ved bruk av konkursprediksjon vil
krisenes konkursrater analyseres, samt implikasjoner av resultatene diskuteres. Grunnlaget
for diskusjonen baserer seg på prediksjon av konkurser i periodene 2006-2010 og 2016-2020.
Studiens datagrunnlag er hentet fra Samfunns- og næringslivsforskning, et selskap i NHHmiljøet.
Det er benyttet foretak- og selskapsdata fra periodene 2004-2010 og 2014-2020.
Med dette datagrunnlaget blir det tatt utgangspunkt i en logistisk regresjonsmodell
inspirert av konkursprediksjonsmodellen til James Ohlson (1980). I tillegg er det brukt
annen litteratur, hovedsakelig hentet fra Norges Bank sin SEBRA-modell (Bernhardsen,
2001). Ved hjelp av regresjonsanalyser har vi testet ut noen hypoteser for å undersøke
antall selskaper som var antatt å gå konkurs før krisene. Dette er så sammenlignet med
det faktiske antallet konkurser i dataen. Utfallet av hypotesetestingen blir brukt til å
diskutere teori og implikasjoner av seleksjonsprosesser i praksis for å gi et helhetlig bilde
av hvordan krisetidene har påvirket det økonomiske landskapet. Det er formulert en todelt
problemstilling hvor resultatene av forskning på problemstilling del én brukes til å besvare
del to:
1. Var det flere eller færre bedrifter som gikk konkurs under finanskrisen og koronakrisen
enn det som ble predikert for?
2. I hvilken grad ble naturlige seleksjonsprosesser forstyrret under finanskrisen og
koronakrisen, og hva var implikasjonene av dette?
Nullhypotesen til oppgaven er at antall konkurser under finanskrisen og koronakrisen var
som predikert. Vår første alternative hypotese er at flere bedrifter, enn predikert, gikk
konkurs under finanskrisen. Vår andre alternative hypotese er at færre bedrifter, enn
predikert, gikk konkurs under koronakrisen. Gjennom logistisk regresjonsanalyse forkaster
vi nullhypotesen, og bekrefter begge de alternative hypotesene. De alternative hypoteser
antyder således at seleksjonsprosessene har blitt forstyrret i krisetider. Næringslivet kan
ses på som en stor seleksjonsmekanisme, som allokerer ressurser dit hvor produktiviteten
er høyest, og hvis næringslivet ble drevet frem av velfungerende seleksjon, hadde naturlig
seleksjon i næringslivet bidratt direkte til økonomisk vekst. Ved forstyrrelser kan både
fremtidig vekst og produktivitet i samfunnet påvirkes.nhhma
Cruise Tourist Management : A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for Allocating Cruise Tourists in Bergen City Centre
Get PDFAs Norway’s largest cruise port, Bergen allows up to 8,000 cruise tourists to visit per
day. Effectively allocating these tourists is crucial to prevent queues and congestion while
simultaneously maximizing the tourists’ satisfaction. The purpose of this master’s thesis
is therefore to develop an optimization model which aims to achieve these objectives.
This master thesis utilizes a model based on the Travelling Salesman Problem to generate
a set of visiting routes composed of a selection of locations to visit within the city centre.
These locations are based on recommendations by Visit Bergen and Tripadvisor, and
information regarding them is retrieved through API calls. Further, a mixed integer
linear programming model is developed to assign tourist groups to routes maximizing
satisfaction while simultaneously preventing congestion. By gathering information from
the tourists, the model aims to account for individual preferences and time limits when
assigning tourist groups to routes.
The result of this thesis is a simplified mixed integer linear programming model utilizing
a set of predefined routes for the tourist groups to be assigned to. The proposed
model successfully allocates a test population, consisting of a set of tourist groups. It
ensures an optimal allocation of each tourist group by maximizing overall satisfaction and
preventing congestion. However, analysis shows that a real-life application of the model,
aiming to assign potentially 8,000 tourists divided into groups to predefined routes, is
computationally challenging despite the implemented simplifications. A balanced trade-off
between computational time and the objective is therefore required.nhhma
Beyond the Gale: Parametric Insurance Pricing for Offshore Wind: Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods, Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Copula-Based Risk Assessment on Zero Generation Events
Get PDFThis thesis introduces an innovative pricing model for parametric insurance of zerogeneration
events at offshore wind farms, mainly focusing on the Norwegian shelf. The
model employs a Hierarchical Bayesian approach to analyze the variability of these events,
leveraging historical data. The research uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations
to estimate posterior Gumbel distributions for zero generation events on both monthly
and regional scales. A significant aspect of the study involves using copulas to model
co-dependency between wind farms within a portfolio, and employing Value-at-Risk and
Expected Shortfall metrics for risk assessment.
A crucial finding is the heightened risk in insuring portfolios of geographically proximate
wind farms due to co-dependency, evident in increased premiums and risk metrics.
Additionally, the thesis explores the impact of co-dependency on insurance premiums,
noting a trend reversal in premiums based on a trigger event threshold. The research
concludes that insurance companies can effectively utilize this pricing strategy for insuring
multiple wind farm locations, encouraging offshore wind sector investment by securing
operator revenue streams.nhhma
Mental helse i det norske finansmiljøet: Sammenhengen mellom arbeidsmiljø og utbrenthet hos unge arbeidstakere i finansbransjen : En studie av hvordan motivasjonsklima, LMX og arbeidsmengde påvirker utbrenthet hos unge arbeidstakere i finansbransjen.
Get PDFNorges finanselite har de siste årene fått et større fotfeste i samfunnsdiskursen og yrkesgruppen ser ut til virke både fascinerende og avskrekkende for mannen i gata. Tilsynelatende finnes det også en allmenn oppfatning om bransjens krevende arbeidsbelastning, men validerte medarbeiderundersøkelser, rapporter og analysearbeid rundt arbeidsforholdene er likevel nærmest ikke-eksisterende. Hensikten med denne studien er å undersøke bakgrunnen for og graden av utbrenthet hos unge arbeidstakere i det norske finansmiljøet. Med finansbransjens arbeidssituasjon som utgangspunkt ser studien på hvordan arbeidstid, ledelse og arbeidskultur preger opplevelse av trivsel og utbrenthet.
Fire hypoteser ble framsatt i arbeidet med å besvare oppgaven. For å teste hypotesene gjennomførte vi hierarkiske multiple regresjonsanalyser basert på data innhentet fra arbeidstakere det norske finansmiljøet. Det ble også gjennomført en korrelasjonsanalyse for å undersøke de interne sammenhengene mellom variablene. Resultatet viser helt eller delvis støtte for tre av fire hypoteser. Funnene bekrefter langt på vei våre antakelser rundt arbeidssituasjonen i finansbransjen, men med et overraskende unntak knyttet til at vi ikke fant sammenfall mellom mange arbeidstimer og grad av utbrenthet. Resultatene i undersøkelsen viser likevel at over en tredjedel av respondentene rapporterer om moderat til høy grad av utbrenthet, med en moderat nedgang i både mental og fysisk helse, sosialt liv og livskvalitet etter oppstart i jobb etter endt studieløp. En av fem respondenter oppgir at de har oppsøkt psykolog som konsekvens av jobb. Videre støtter funnene våre antakelser om at et høyt prestasjonsklima øker opplevelsen av utbrenthet. Finansbransjens karakteristiske trekk preget av konkurranse, prestasjonsfokus og høyt arbeidspress fører til utbrente ansatte. Videre støttes våre antagelser om at en negativ relasjon til nærmeste leder samvarierer med utbrenthet. Resultatene av studien peker derfor mot at en leder som ikke ser og ivaretar sine ansatte gir konsekvenser i form av utmattelse og mistrivsel.
Oppsummert viser resultatene at funnene på flere områder kan ses på som bekreftende for antakelse rundt den krevende arbeidssituasjonen i finansbransjen. Vi ser likevel at det er miljøet, press og forhold til leder som fører til utmattelse, ikke arbeidstidene i seg selv. Resultatene av studien indikerer med andre ord at arbeidsforholdene for unge ansatte i finansbransjen gir grunn til bekymring. I en tid der bærekraft må og skal være en rettesnor i arbeidslivet peker funnene mot at finansbransjen har en vei å gå før retten til et sunt og trygt arbeidsmiljø nedfelt både som et av FNs bærekrafts-mål og i verdenserklæringen for menneskerettigheter er godt nok ivaretatt i møte med unge arbeidstakere på vei inn i yrket.In recent years, Norway's financial elite has gained a stronger foothold in societal discourse, appearing both fascinating and daunting to the average person. Despite a seemingly widespread agreement on the demanding nature of the industry's workload, validated employee surveys, reports, and analyses on working conditions are almost non-existent. The purpose of this study is to investigate the background and extent of burnout among young employees in the Norwegian financial sector. Using the working conditions in the finance industry as a starting point, the study examines how working hours, management, and work culture influence well-being and burnout experiences. Four hypotheses were formulated in the process of addressing the task. To test our hypotheses, we conducted hierarchical multiple regression analyses based on data collected from workers in the Norwegian financial environment. Additionally, a correlation analysis was conducted to explore the internal relationships between variables. The results show full or partial support for three out of four hypotheses. The findings, in many aspects, confirm our assumptions about the working situation in the finance industry. The survey results indicate that approximately half of the respondents report a moderate to high degree of burnout, with a moderate decline in mental and physical health, social life, and overall quality of life after starting work. One in five respondents states seeking psychological help as a consequence of their job. Furthermore, our findings support the assumption that a high-performance climate increases the experience of burnout. The industry's characteristic features, marked by competition, performance focus, and high workload, contribute to exhausted employees.
Additionally, our assumptions about a poor relationship with the immediate supervisor correlating with burnout are supported by the results. The study suggests that a leader who fails to see and support their employees has consequences in the form of exhaustion and dissatisfaction. In summary, the results affirm assumptions about the working situation in the finance industry, highlighting the impact of the environment, pressure, and relationships with leaders on exhaustion, rather than the working hours themselves. The study's outcome implies a concerning scenario for the industry. The right to have a healthy and safe working environment is enshrined both as one of the UN´s sustainability goals and in the Universal Declaration of Human rights, yet it seems that these rights are not so much enshrined in business cultures concerning how to take care of young employees entering finance as their field of work.nhhma
The Impact of Celebrity Endorsement Announcements : An Empirical Study of the Stock Market Reaction to Celebrity Endorsement Deal Announcements in the USA and Europe
Get PDFDo celebrity endorsements impact the stock price? In this thesis, we aim to answer this by
analyzing a unique sample of 155 announcements from 2009 to 2023 by firms listed in Europe
and the USA, using announcements from social media, press releases, and news sources.
Employing the event study methodology, we observe no significant abnormal returns on the
announcement day. However, in the USA, significant negative returns occur two days before
announcements, indicating potential information leaks, followed by positive returns postannouncement.
In Europe, we document no significant abnormal returns, indicating that the
benefits of celebrity endorsements are closely equivalent to their costs. In addition, we
examine if the abnormal returns depend on several characteristics. Our findings suggest lower
returns for male celebrities compared to women. Additionally, the celebrity-firm match-up
negatively influences abnormal returns in the USA. In Europe, celebrity popularity negatively
affects the stock price, and technology firms experience a significantly positive impact from
endorsements.nhhma
Effects of CSR messages on Perceived Greenwashing & Green Brand Equity : The interaction of message frames and industry stereotypes
Get PDFGiven the paradigm shift towards environmentalism, stakeholders, especially consumers, are exerting pressure on companies to be more transparent with their business practices. Companies in turn are responding through CSR to demonstrate the legitimacy of their business operations. However, this legitimacy has been called into question time and time again by consumers, as some companies have been known to falsely engage in CSR activities or greenwash to maximize profits and gain customer loyalty under the guise of philanthropy. This thesis tests the effects of CSR message frames (warmth and competence) and industry stereotypes (high and low perceived contribution to a sustainability problem) to see if there is any impact on perceived greenwashing and green brand equity. A 2 x 2 factorial design and a one-way MANOVA analysis were conducted to test for the main effect and the interaction effects on both perceived greenwashing and green brand equity, which serve as the dependent variables. The study found that there were no significant interaction effects between the PCP level of a company and the effects of warmth versus competence frames of CSR messages on perceived greenwashing as well as greenwashing, demonstrating the complexity of how stakeholders evaluate sustainability claims.nhhma
Is the Grass Greener on the Other Side? Impacts of Cross-Border Alcohol Shopping on Tax Revenue
Get PDFIn this thesis, we examine how available cross-border shopping affects Vinmonopolet’s sales
volume and the affiliated loss of tax revenue. Leveraging COVID-19 border closures as an
exogenous shock, it employs an imputation-based differences-in-differences methodology
that offers a clean identification strategy for the causal effect of available cross-border
shopping. We utilize a constructed panel data set with weekly sales data from all 345
Vinmonopolet liquor stores over the period 2018–2022.
The results indicate cross-border alcohol shopping reduces overall Vinmonopolet sales
for treated outlets by 13%, reaching 48% for outlets within 45 minutes of Sweden.
Heterogeneous effects are found across four main alcohol categories; beer, wine, fortified
wine, and spirits. Total estimated tax revenue losses were NOK 871 million in 2019,
driven primarily by lower alcohol excise tax receipts. The findings have implications for
Norwegian alcohol policy and addressing the trade-off between public health goals and
mitigating tax leakage from cross-border shopping. Our estimates are robust using several
robustness checks.nhhma
Seasoned Equity Offerings on the Oslo Stock Exchange : An Empirical Study of the Stock Performance Following Seasoned Equity Offerings from 2013 to 2022
No full textThis thesis explores the short-term impact of seasoned equity offering announcements
on the Oslo Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2022. We employ the Carhart four-factor
model to analyze the effect on abnormal returns around these announcements. Our
approach includes detailed analysis and various visual representations to deepen our
understanding of these effects. Additionally, we conduct a cross-sectional analysis to
explore the influences on cumulative abnormal return, offering a comprehensive view of
the announcement impacts.
Our findings reveal statistically significant evidence that SEO announcements generally
have a negative impact on the cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR), averaging a
decrease of approximately -2.1% in the typical event window. Interestingly, we also observe
evidence of positive abnormal returns preceding the announcements. This observation
aligns with market timing theory, and suggests that companies benefit from timing their
seasoned equity offerings during periods where investor expectations for the future are
overly optimistic (Baker and Wurgler, 2002).
The cross-sectional analysis, focusing on CAR as the dependent variable, identifies
significant factors that explain variations in CAR. Specifically, we find that deal size to
market capitalization with dilution as a mitigating effect, significantly influences CAR,
while issue discount shows no significant impact. These findings are intriguing as they
challenge our original assumptions about these variables. It appears that these variables
are influenced in a manner consistent with market timing theories.
In conclusion, our study indicates that, on average, SEO announcements lead to a decline
in abnormal returns. Certain factors, namely size to market capitalization and dilution,
have a substantial explanatory power regarding the extent of CAR’s impact. Furthermore,
our analysis suggests that firms tend to time their equity issues strategically to minimize
the overall negative effect on their stock prices.nhhma
Fundamental Valuation of NOV
Get PDFThe purpose of this thesis is to conduct a fundamental valuation of NOV to provide an equity
value and share price as of 17 January 2023. To support the fundamental valuation of the
company, I have also performed a relative valuation, using the EV/EBITDA and P/S multiples.
I conduct a comprehensive examination of macroeconomic, industry-, and company-specific
factors that drive value in the oilfield services and equipment industry. These analyses are
utilized to make necessary assumptions, forecast NOV’s future performance, and ultimately
estimate the company’s equity value and final price target.
Acknowledging the accelerating global energy transition and growing public concern about
climate change, companies that offer equipment and technologies supportive of cleaner energy
sources have experienced considerable demand growth in recent years. Driven by regulatory
changes, subsidies, volatile oil and gas prices, and the ongoing shift towards sustainable
energy sources, the industry is continuously nudged to adapt and innovate. With its long
history as a market leader in the global oilfield services and equipment industry, an extensive
product portfolio, and a global customer base comprising several large upstream oil and gas
companies, NOV is solidly positioned within the global energy markets. Amid a moderately
competitive situation, NOV is poised to continue to grow the upcoming years, particularly as
it ventures into the booming renewable energy market.
Considering these factors, the fundamental valuation yields an estimated share price of 12,5, derived from a weighted average of the estimations
from both fundamental and relative valuation methods, allocated with a 70/30 weight,
respectively. While the estimates are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, as
investigated through a sensitivity analysis, the conclusion suggests a potential overvaluation
of NOV. Hence, as of January 17, 2023, I would propose a sell recommendation.nhhma