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COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status.
Get PDFBACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major inequalities in infection and disease burden between areas of varying socioeconomic deprivation in many countries, including England. Areas of higher deprivation tend to have a different population structure-generally younger-which can increase viral transmission due to higher contact rates in school-going children and working-age adults. Higher deprivation is also associated with a higher presence of chronic comorbidities, which were convincingly demonstrated to be risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease. These two major factors need to be combined to better understand and quantify their relative importance in the observed COVID-19 inequalities.
METHODS: We used UK Census data on health status and demography stratified by decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which is a measure of socioeconomic deprivation. We calculated epidemiological impact using an age-stratified COVID-19 transmission model, which incorporated different contact patterns and clinical health profiles by decile. To separate the contribution of each factor, we considered a scenario where the clinical health profile of all deciles was at the level of the least deprived. We also considered the effectiveness of school closures and vaccination of over 65-year-olds in each decile.
RESULTS: In the modelled epidemics in urban areas, the most deprived decile experienced 9% more infections, 13% more clinical cases, and a 97% larger peak clinical size than the least deprived; we found similar inequalities in rural areas. Twenty-one per cent of clinical cases and 16% of deaths in England observed under the model assumptions would not occur if all deciles experienced the clinical health profile of the least deprived decile. We found that more deaths were prevented in more affluent areas during school closures and vaccination rollouts.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that both clinical and demographic factors synergise to generate health inequalities in COVID-19, that improving the clinical health profile of populations would increase health equity, and that some interventions can increase health inequalities
Driving delivery and uptake of catch-up vaccination among adolescent and adult migrants in UK general practice: a mixed methods pilot study.
Get PDFBACKGROUND: Migrants in the UK and Europe face vulnerability to vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) due to missed childhood vaccines and doses and marginalisation from health systems. Ensuring migrants receive catch-up vaccinations, including MMR, Td/IPV, MenACWY, and HPV, is essential to align them with UK and European vaccination schedules and ultimately reduce morbidity and mortality. However, recent evidence highlights poor awareness and implementation of catch-up vaccination guidelines by UK primary care staff, requiring novel approaches to strengthen the primary care pathway.
METHODS: The 'Vacc on Track' study (May 2021-September 2022) aimed to measure under-vaccination rates among migrants in UK primary care and establish new referral pathways for catch-up vaccination. Participants included migrants aged 16 or older, born outside of Western Europe, North America, Australia, or New Zealand, in two London boroughs. Quantitative data on vaccination history, referral, uptake, and sociodemographic factors were collected, with practice nurses prompted to deliver catch-up vaccinations following UK guidelines. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with staff and migrants explored views on delivering catch-up vaccination, including barriers, facilitators, and opportunities. Data were analysed using STATA12 and NVivo 12.
RESULTS: Results from 57 migrants presenting to study sites from 18 countries (mean age 41 [SD 7.2] years; 62% female; mean 11.3 [SD 9.1] years in UK) over a minimum of 6 months of follow-up revealed significant catch-up vaccination needs, particularly for MMR (49 [86%] required catch-up vaccination) and Td/IPV (50 [88%]). Fifty-three (93%) participants were referred for any catch-up vaccination, but completion of courses was low (6 [12%] for Td/IPV and 33 [64%] for MMR), suggesting individual and systemic barriers. Qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 39) with adult migrants highlighted the lack of systems currently in place in the UK to offer catch-up vaccination to migrants on arrival and the need for health-care provider skills and knowledge of catch-up vaccination to be improved. Focus group discussions and interviews with practice staff (n = 32) identified limited appointment/follow-up time, staff knowledge gaps, inadequate engagement routes, and low incentivisation as challenges that will need to be addressed. However, they underscored the potential of staff champions, trust-building mechanisms, and community-based approaches to strengthen catch-up vaccination uptake among migrants.
CONCLUSIONS: Given the significant catch-up vaccination needs of migrants in our sample, and the current barriers to driving uptake identified, our findings suggest it will be important to explore this public health issue further, potentially through a larger study or trial. Strengthening existing pathways, staff capacity and knowledge in primary care, alongside implementing new strategies centred on cultural competence and building trust with migrant communities will be important focus areas
Twenty-Three Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Surveys in the Central and Northern Regions of Benin, 2018-2022.
Get PDFPURPOSE: Trachoma is an infectious eye disease caused by Chlamydia trachomatis. Infection causes conjunctival inflammation, which can be manifested by the sign known as trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). Repeated inflammation leads to eyelid scarring, which in susceptible individuals can cause in-turning of the eyelashes, referred to as trachomatous trichiasis (TT). This article describes 23 population-based surveys conducted in northern and central Benin to determine TF and/or TT prevalence for trachoma elimination purposes. METHODS: A total of 18 surveys estimated the prevalence of both TF and TT: two baseline surveys, eight impact surveys after implementation of interventions against trachoma, and eight surveillance surveys. Five other evaluation units (EUs) were surveyed for TT only. To estimate the TF prevalence, a target sample size of 1701 (baseline) and 1164 1-9-year-olds (impact and surveillance) was required, whereas 2818 ≥ 15-year-olds were required to estimate the less prevalent TT. In each EU, individuals were selected by two-stage cluster sampling and examined by certified graders for TF and/or TT. RESULTS: A total of 68,613 people were examined. TF prevalence estimates were under the 5% elimination threshold in all surveys. TT prevalence estimates were above the 0.2% elimination threshold in all five TT-only surveys and in four impact surveys, ranging from 0.2-0.57. CONCLUSION: TF prevalence in Benin is low, but TT was above 0.2% in nine districts. Increased case-finding and continuing efforts to improve surgery accessibility will be needed to reduce the burden of TT in Benin
Delivering HIV and TB services amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia: a qualitative study of challenges and mitigation strategies
Get PDFBackground: Indonesia has the second-highest burden of tuberculosis (TB) globally and is experiencing one of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted access to essential health services, including those for TB and HIV, due to health system overload, social distancing measures, and negative economic repercussions on the health sector and the population. An in-depth understanding of these challenges and the health system responses to mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on TB and HIV services is crucial to building health system resilience and preparing for future emergencies.
Methods: This qualitative study, conducted in two cities in Indonesia, explored the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB and HIV services including mitigation strategies to sustain the provision of testing and treatment in the midst of the pandemic. Between February and June 2022, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 healthcare workers and 16 clients at nine health centers (puskesmas), three hospitals, and one Community Center for Lung Health in Bandung and Yogyakarta. Themes were identified from transcripts using open and selective coding and then refined.
Results: Extraordinary measures were implemented in health facilities to sustain TB and HIV service delivery, and prevent the spread of COVID-19, including testing of clients for COVID-19 before receiving medical care, physical distancing when visiting healthcare facilities, revised schedules for medicine dispensing, involvement of community health workers and peers in community outreach activities such as the home delivery of medicines, and the use of telemedicine. Challenges encountered during the implementation of these strategies included medicine stock-outs, health worker overload, lack of sufficient client-provider interaction and technical difficulties when implementing telemedicine, and the risk or fear of exposure to COVID-19 among the community health workers and peers.
Conclusions: Significant efforts were made to mitigate disruptions to TB and HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some challenges were encountered. Key policy recommendations to strengthen pandemic preparedness include investing in local manufacturing and robust drug supply networks to prevent medicine shortages, and supporting community health workers to alleviate workload issues, reduce the risk of disease exposure, and explore the potential for a financial incentive system. Equally vital is the need to invest in staff training and education, as well as implementing user-friendly telemedicine technologies
Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019.
Get PDFBACKGROUND: There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda. METHODOLOGY: Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15-60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33-5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61-12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89-3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999-2004 and 2015-2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively. CONCLUSION: There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males
Lessons to be learned from test evaluations during the COVID-19 pandemic: RSS Working Group’s Report on Diagnostic Tests
Get PDFThe coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic raised challenges for everyday life. Development of new diagnostic tests was necessary, but under such enormous pressure risking inadequate evaluation. Against a background of concern about standards applied to the evaluation of in vitro diagnostic tests (IVDs), clear statistical thinking was needed on the principles of diagnostic testing in general, and their application in a pandemic. Therefore, in July 2020, the Royal Statistical Society convened a Working Group of six biostatisticians to review the statistical evidence needed to ensure the performance of new tests, especially IVDs for infectious diseases—for regulators, decision-makers, and the public. The Working Group’s review was undertaken when the Covid-19 pandemic shone an unforgiving light on current processes for evaluating and regulating IVDs for infectious diseases. The report’s findings apply more broadly than to the pandemic and IVDs, to diagnostic test evaluations in general. A section of the report focussed on lessons learned during the pandemic and aimed to contribute to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry’s examination of the response to, and impact of, the Covid-19 pandemic to learn lessons for the future. The review made 22 recommendations on what matters for study design, transparency, and regulation
Parliamentary reaction to the announcement and implementation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy: applied thematic analysis of 2016-2020 parliamentary debates.
No full textOBJECTIVE: The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) (announced in March 2016; implemented in April 2018) aims to incentivise reformulation of soft drinks to reduce added sugar levels. The SDIL has been applauded as a policy success, and it has survived calls from parliamentarians for it to be repealed. We aimed to explore parliamentary reaction to the SDIL following its announcement until two years post-implementation in order to understand how health policy can become established and resilient to opposition. DESIGN: Searches of Hansard for parliamentary debate transcripts that discussed the SDIL retrieved 186 transcripts, with 160 included after screening. Five stages of Applied Thematic Analysis were conducted: familiarisation and creation of initial codebooks; independent second coding; codebook finalisation through team consensus; final coding of the dataset to the complete codebook; and theme finalisation through team consensus. SETTING: The United Kingdom Parliament. PARTICIPANTS: N/A. RESULTS: Between the announcement (16/03/2016) - royal assent (26/04/2017), two themes were identified 1: SDIL welcomed cross-party 2: SDIL a good start but not enough. Between royal assent - implementation (5/04/2018), one theme was identified 3: The SDIL worked - what next? The final theme identified from implementation until 16/03/2020 was 4: Moving on from the SDIL. CONCLUSIONS: After the announcement, the SDIL had cross-party support and was recognised to have encouraged reformulation prior to implementation. Lessons for governments indicate that the combination of cross-party support and a policy's documented success in achieving its aim can help cement the resilience of it to opposition and threats of repeal
Diarrhea Case Surveillance in the Enterics for Global Health Shigella Surveillance Study: Epidemiologic Methods.
Get PDFBACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of acute watery diarrhea, dysentery, and diarrhea-attributed linear growth faltering, a precursor to stunting and lifelong morbidity. Several promising Shigella vaccines are in development and field efficacy trials will require a consortium of potential vaccine trial sites with up-to-date Shigella diarrhea incidence data.
METHODS: The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will employ facility-based enrollment of diarrhea cases aged 6-35 months with 3 months of follow-up to establish incidence rates and document clinical, anthropometric, and financial consequences of Shigella diarrhea at 7 country sites (Mali, Kenya, The Gambia, Malawi, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Peru). Over a 24-month period between 2022 and 2024, the EFGH study aims to enroll 9800 children (1400 per country site) between 6 and 35 months of age who present to local health facilities with diarrhea. Shigella species (spp.) will be identified and serotyped from rectal swabs by conventional microbiologic methods and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Shigella spp. isolates will undergo serotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Incorporating population and healthcare utilization estimates from contemporaneous household sampling in the catchment areas of enrollment facilities, we will estimate Shigella diarrhea incidence rates.
CONCLUSIONS: This multicountry surveillance network will provide key incidence data needed to design Shigella vaccine trials and strengthen readiness for potential trial implementation. Data collected in EFGH will inform policy makers about the relative importance of this vaccine-preventable disease, accelerating the time to vaccine availability and uptake among children in high-burden settings
Impact of a virtual antenatal intervention for improved diet and iron intake in Kapilvastu district, Nepal - the VALID randomized controlled trial.
Get PDFINTRODUCTION: Counseling, together with iron and folic acid supplements, can improve hemoglobin levels in pregnant women, but few interventions have tested a virtual method of delivering counseling. We hypothesized that a virtual counseling intervention delivered via a mobile device (mHealth) would prevent and treat anemia, compared with routine antenatal care (ANC). METHODS: Virtual antenatal intervention for improved diet and iron intake (VALID) was a non-blinded parallel group two-arm, individually randomized superiority trial (1:1 allocation). Participants were pregnant women who were married, aged 13-49 years, able to answer questions, 12-28 weeks' gestation and living in Kapilvastu district, Nepal. Women were randomized to receive routine ANC (control arm), or ANC plus a virtual antenatal intervention of two problem-solving counseling sessions via video call. The primary outcome was iron folic acid (IFA) tablet compliance (consumption on 12 or more days of the previous 14 days). Secondary outcomes were dietary diversity, promoted food consumption, iron bioavailability enhancement, and knowledge of iron-rich foods. Primary logistic regression analysis was by intention-to-treat, adjusting for baseline values. RESULTS: We enrolled 319 pregnant women (161 control, 158 intervention) from 23 January 2022 to 6 May 2022 and analyzed outcomes in 144 control and 127 intervention women. Compliance with IFA increased in both arms. In the intervention arm, compliance increased by 29.7 percentage points (pp) (49.0-78.7%) and 19.8 pp. in the control arm (53.8-73.6%). Despite the more significant increase in the intervention arm, we found no intervention effect upon IFA compliance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75, 2.35; p = 0.334), dietary diversity, or ANC visits. The intervention increased knowledge of iron-rich foods (coefficient 0.96; 95% CI: 0.50, 1.41; p < 0.001), consumption of promoted foods (aOR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.08, 3.02; p = 0.023), behavior to enhance iron bioavailability (aOR: 4.41; 95% CI: 1.23, 15.83; p = 0.023), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) knowledge (aOR: 4.06; 95% CI: 1.56, 10.54; p = 0.004). The total intervention cost was US277. CONCLUSION: Virtual counseling can improve antenatal health behaviors, such as the consumption of promoted foods and methods to enhance bioavailability. Improved IFA consumption and ANC attendance may require additional family/community support. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17842200, identifier ISRCTN17842200