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CMSI Note #6: Sharpening the Sword: Chinese Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Group Defense Zones
Get PDFPerspectives and Key Takeaways: Chinese state media’s Channel 7 recently released a series of videos that described China’s aircraft carriers and the carrier battle groups, including their history, composition, and operational theory. The videos describe the carrier battle group (CVBG) “Outer Defense Zone” (外防区), also called the “Depth Defense Zone” (纵深防区), as 185 km to 400 km away from the aircraft carrier. The “Middle Defense Zone” (中防区), or the “Area Defense Zone” (区域防区) is described as 45 km to 185 km away from the aircraft carrier. The video details the “Inner Defense Zone” (内防区), otherwise called the “Point Defense Zone” (点防区), as 100 meters to 45 km away from the aircraft carrier. According to the videos, air operations from the carriers are generally divided into two types of flight operations: the “Split wave operational pattern” (分波作业方式) and the “Continuous operational pattern” (连续作业方式).https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/1005/thumbnail.jp
Report No.1: Conflict Prevention and Security Cooperation in the Arctic Region—Frameworks of the Future
Get PDFThe Arctic region, defined in this report to include the Arctic Ocean and land masses north of the Arctic Circle (approximately 66 degrees’ north latitude), has certainly seen its share of conflict. Compared to other regions, inhospitable conditions and lack of maritime access has prevented large scale deployment of forces. In this vast space — stretching from Europe to the Pacific Island chains — the foundations of commerce and security are established through sea, air, and rail links. The region relies on secure supply chain connectivity and sustainable development that is implemented in a transparent and equitable way. As fears of a new cold war brew, however, the guarantors of that international order such as the Arctic Council and Arctic Coast Guard Forum, to name a few, may be not be sufficient to ensure security and dialogue in the region.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nasi/1000/thumbnail.jp
Episode 8: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea
No full textIn conjunction with the 2024 Maritime Symposium: Exploring Our Maritime Strategies II, guests Capt. Joe Baggett, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Evan Curt join host Col. Dave Brown to discuss the Houthi attacks on global shipping vessels and U.S. warships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in the Red Sea. Listen to this episode to gain an overview of the threat to this critical maritime region.
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View the episode on YouTube.
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Articles: DIA Report on Houthi Attacks and Pressure on International Trade, USNI News, 13 June 2024 65 Countries Affected by Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Including Iran, A. Helou, Breaking Defense, 13 Jun 2024 Maritime Terrorism Is on The Rise Whether We Notice it or Not, The Diplomatic Courier, 23 May 2024 Ending the Houthi Threat to Red Sea, N. Al-Dawsari, Casey Cooms, et al, American Enterprise Institute, 26 Mar 2024 IntelBrief: Iran and the Houthis Issue New Threats to Commercial Shipping, The Soufan Center, 26 Mar 2024 Escalating Houthi Attacks Could Affect 90% of World Trade, ABC News, 21 Feb 2024
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Guests:
Nadwa Al-DawsariA veteran researcher, conflict analyst, and policy advisor, Nadwa Al-Dawsari has 20 years of experience in Yemen and the Middle East. She is a Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and a Fellow at the Center on Armed Groups. She advises policymakers, donors, and humanitarian organizations, and her insights are widely published by the top think tanks in the United States and Europe. In her previous roles, Nadwa served as a senior conflict advisor to the World Food Program, a Yemen Country Director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, the founding Director at Partners Yemen, a MENA advisor at Partners Global, and a Senior Program Manager at the National Democratic Institute. Nadwa’s research focuses on Yemeni and regional conflict dynamics, including the impact of U.S. foreign policy, internationally led peace efforts, counterterrorism, and aid on regional stability, amidst the rise of non-state armed actors and proxy warfare.
Capt. Joseph Baggett, USNCommanding Officer of the U.S. Navy’s Surface Warfare School and former senior staff officer for MOC-D C5F. Capt. Baggett served on a number of U.S. naval vessels including the USS Klakring (FFG 42); USS Stout (DDG 55); USS Barry (DDG 52); USS Anzio (CG 68); He also was commanding officer of the Destroyer USS Truxtun (DDG 103) and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61). Shore tours include service on the staff of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / U.S. 5th Fleet as lead exercise planner in Future Plans; lead requirements officer for the Littoral Combat Ship - Mine Warfare Mission Package, at the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; and the operations officer for the Deployable Training Division on the Joint Staff (J7); Most recently he served as chief of staff for USNAVCENT / C5F and the MOC-D. He currently serves as the Commanding Officer of Surface Warfare Schools Command (SWSC).
Evan Curt Deputy Commissioner of Maritime Affairs, Republic of the Marshall Islands. In 2012, Mr. Curt joined International Registries, Inc.’s Maritime Services Group as Maritime Security & Investigations Coordinator and in 2015 was promoted to Ship Security Manager. In 2021, Mr. Curt was promoted to Vice President, Maritime Security. In this role, Mr. Curt is responsible for issues relating to the ISPS Code and related maritime security issues and initiatives including piracy and armed robbery against ships, maritime terrorism, stowaways, contraband smuggling, and maritime cyber risk management. He serves as a delegate to many maritime security working groups coordinated and supported by shipping industry associations, NATO, coalition naval forces, and the IMO. Mr. Curt earned his M.A. in Maritime Security from Coventry University, his M.B.A. from Arizona State University, and his B.A. in Business and International Studies from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Mr. Curt is a certified ISO 9001:2008 Lead Internal Auditor and ISPS Code Security Officer.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1007/thumbnail.jp
James B. Stockdale on Leadership, Ethics, and Education
Get PDFThe items in this volume are drawn from the archives of the Naval War College and represent writings of Admiral Stockdale about leadership, ethics, and education. Among the materials presented are published and unpublished speeches, letters, short articles, and a manuscript. Some of the material has been published previously, while some of it is being presented for the first time. The latter materials are presented essentially unedited so that readers and researchers have the material as Stockdale wrote it originally.
Readers will find recurring themes in Admiral Stockdale’s writings; he wove his ideas and values into every one of his oral and written works, creating a tapestry, in much the same way that a composer repeats and then varies a theme in a musical composition. Stockdale understood that values have consequences; thematic repetition of ideas emphasizes their importance.
Because of his belief in the importance of ideas, and coupling that belief with his experiences in Vietnam, Admiral Stockdale taught a unique elective at the Naval War College, titled Foundations of Moral Obligation. That course continues to the present, carrying on Stockdale’s values and legacy.
Admiral Stockdale’s son, Dr. James B. Stockdale II, opens the work with reminiscences of, and the importance of ideas to, his father. Fellow POW and Naval War College professor emeritus Porter Halyburton provides insight on Stockdale’s leadership while in captivity and the role of ethics in leadership.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/usnwc-van-beuren-les/1006/thumbnail.jp
CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion
Get PDFCMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity. The simple design and relative ease of construction of deck cargo ships means they can quickly be built in large numbers. These vessels may be tasked to bring in large columns of logistics and follow-on forces to consolidate landing areas, possibly in waves not far behind landing assault forces. Deck cargo ships can distribute the risk for many units making transits and force an adversary to find suitable kill solutions to strike numerous lower value targets.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/1003/thumbnail.jp
Episode 12: Playing with Fire: Election Violence in the U.S. in 2024 & Beyond
No full textProfessor Jacob Ware joins host Col. Dave Brown and Dr. Timothy Hoyt to discuss both current manifestations of and potential future episodes of election violence in this presidential election cycle. Quoting from one of Professor Ware\u27s recent articles, counterterrorism scholars and analysts have predicted for [some time] that the 2024 presidential election would provide a particularly volatile flashpoint for election violence. The near-assassination of Trump demonstrates the accuracy of these concerns—but they are only part of the story.
The conversation ranges from how political rhetoric framed in existential terms drives these outcomes, the staggering percentages of the U.S. polity that feel violence might be necessary to fix U.S. political problems, and identifies potential target orientations before, during, and after the election. This timely discussion focuses on the growth and significance of both realized and potential political violence in our country as we move into this important election season, and beyond.
Articles/Reference: Election Violence Is Already in Full Swing, J. Ware, Lawfare, 22 Sep 2024 Opinion: Trump Assassination Attempts are Just the Beginning. Imagine What is Coming After the Election, J. Ware & C. Clarke, L.A. Times, 17 Sep 2024 How Bad Will Political Violence in the U.S. Get? B. Hoffman & J. War, Foreign Policy, 28 Jun 2024 Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024, J. Ware, CFR, 17 April 2024 Political Violence Becomes America\u27s New Norm - But is Still Shocking, A. Zurcher, BBC, 15 Sep 2024 2 Virginia Guardsmen Are Running a Rural Anti-Government Militia, S. Beynon, Military.com, 5 Sep 2024 Could Civil War Erupt in America?, R. Agrawal, Foreign Policy, 29 Aug 2024 (video) Iran Hack Illuminates Long-Standing Trends—and Raises New Challenges, R. DiResta, Lawfare, 26 Aug 2024 Two Ex-Marines Sentenced for Terror Plot to Attack Power Grid, N. Slayton, Task & Purpose, 27 Jul 2024 FBI Probing Trump Rally Shooting as ‘Domestic Terrorism’ as RNC Opens, Al Jazeera, 15 Jul 2024
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Guests:
Timothy D. Hoyt, Ph.D. – Co-Host Senior Professor at the U.S. Naval War College’s Strategy and Policy Department. Professor Hoyt holds the John Nicholas Brown Chair of Counterterrorism and Academic Director of the Advanced Strategist Program. Publications include articles on the war on terrorism in South Asia, the limits of military force in the global war on terrorism, military innovation and warfare in the developing world, and the impact of nuclear weapons on recent crises in South Asia. He is currently working on a book on American military strategy in the 21st Century, and a study of the strategy of the Irish Republican Army from 1913-2005.
Jacob Ware Research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he studies domestic and international terrorism and counterterrorism. Together with Bruce Hoffman, he is the author of God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America. In addition to his work at CFR, Ware is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches a class on domestic terrorism, as well as at DeSales University. He also serves on the editorial boards for the academic journal Studies in Conflict & Terrorism and the Irregular Warfare Initiative at the Modern War Institute at West Point, and was a spring 2024 visiting fellow at the University of Oslo\u27s Center for Research on Extremism.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1011/thumbnail.jp
Episode 13: The Dolus Deception: Deepfake Technology and the Fight Against Falsehood & Disinformation
No full textGuests Dr. Hany Farid and Ted Schlein join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Tim Schultz to discuss deepfake technology and the challenge of the proliferation of fake news and disinformation. One of Aesop’s fables was titled Prometheus and Dolus, or sometimes alternatively titled, On Truth and Falsehood. In the fable, Prometheus can bring to life the figures he creates, and so he makes a sculpture of Truth (Veritas). When he is called away by Zeus, he leaves his workshop in the hands of his apprentice Dolus (the Greek God of Deception). While he is gone, Dolus fashions a replica of Prometheus\u27s Truth, but runs out of clay, so his statue has no feet. When Prometheus returns, he marvels at the flawless likeness and fires both sculptures in the oven. When both figures come to life, Prometheus\u27 Veritas (Truth) walks gracefully forward, while Dolus’ figure remains still - unable to walk. Ever after, Dolus\u27 figure was called Mendacity (Falsehood). This is a fitting description of our topic which concerns the ever-growing area of deepfake digital media, its potential for tremendous negative consequences for domestic and international cybersecurity, its larger potential for societal disruption, and recommendations for how best to address it.
Articles: California Enacts New Laws to Combat AI-Generated Deceptive Election Content, S. Levi, T. Rosen et al, Skadden, 27 Sep 2024 California Passes Election ‘Deepfake’ Laws, Forcing Social Media Companies to Take Action, NYT, 17 Sep 2024 Deepfakes Are Evolving. This Company Wants to Catch Them All, W. Knight, Wired, 27 Jun 2024 Hany Farid: Creating, Weaponizing, and Detecting Deep Fakes, UCSB Interdisciplinary Humanities Center, 3 May 2023 (video) A Forensics Expert on Princess Kate’s Photo—and How Credentialing Tools Can Help Build Trust in a World of Increasing Uncertainty, H. Farid, TIME, 12 Mar 2024 AI is destabilizing ‘the concept of truth itself’ in 2024 election, P. Verma & G. De Vynck, Washington Post, 22 Jan 2024 Hany Farid: To limit disinformation, we must regulate internet platforms, E. Lempinen, UC Berkeley News, 21 Nov, 2023 Podcast: Hany Farid on deep fakes, doctored photos, and disinformation, H. Farid, Q. Jurecic & E. Douek, Brookings, 24 Jul 2020 (Podcast) Creating,Using, Misusing, and Detecting Deep Fakes, Farid, H. (2022). Creating, Using, Misusing, and Detecting Deep Fakes. Journal of Online Trust and Safety, 1(4). https://doi.org/10.54501/jots.v1i4.56 Dr. Hany Farid CV: https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110075/witnesses/HHRG-116-IF16-Bio-FaridH-20191016.pdf Ted Schlein’s 2-year-old Ballistic Ventures has already raised a second $360 million fund, J. Bort, TechCrunch, 14 Mar 2024 Cybersecurity investor Ted Schlein: ‘I think the whole landscape needs to be completely rethought’, A. Janofsky, The Record, 22 Apr 2021 Could AI and Deepfakes Sway the US Election?, L. Feiger, WIRED, 6 Sep 2024 The Trouble With Deepfakes: Liar\u27s Dividend, FT Tech Tonic, 22 Aug 2024
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Guests:
Timothy Schultz, Ph.D., Col., U.S. Air Force (Retired) - Co-HostAssociate Dean of Academics at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Schultz is a retired Air Force colonel and former U-2 pilot, and previously served as dean of the U.S. Air Force\u27s School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Tim\u27s research interests include the transformative role of automation in warfare and the impact of technological change on institutions, society and military strategy. He authored The Problem with Pilots: How Physicians, Engineers, and Airpower Enthusiasts Redefined Flight and co-edited Air Power in the Age of Primacy: Air Warfare since the Cold War.
Hany Farid, Ph.D.Chief Science Officer at GetReal Labs specializing in image analysis, digital forensics, and the intersection of technology and society particularly as it pertains to online harms. Dr. Farid is also a professor at the University of California, Berkeley with a joint appointment in electrical engineering & computer sciences and the School of Information. He is a member of the Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Lab, Berkeley Institute for Data Science, Center for Innovation in Vision and Optics, Development Engineering, Vision Science Program, and is a senior faculty advisor for the Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity. His research focuses on digital forensics where he develops computational and mathematical techniques to authenticate digital media and debunk deepfakes.
Ted SchleinChairman Ballistic Ventures, & general partner for 25 years at Kleiner Perkins. Ted’s career in venture capital spans more than 30 years in the field of cybersecurity, and his roles as operator, founder, investor and advisor have resulted in the creation of companies that have fundamentally shaped the cybersecurity landscape. Ted also provides counsel to the U.S. intelligence community, serves on the Board of Trustees at InQTel, and he is a board member of the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency’s Advisory Committee. Ballistic Ventures is the embodiment of Ted’s vision for how venture capital can play a crucial role in the continual fight for a free and secure digital future.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1012/thumbnail.jp
Study No. 6, Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course
No full textStudies in Chinese Maritime Development No. 6: Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Coursehttps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1002/thumbnail.jp
CMSI Note #11: Admiral Miao Hua\u27s Fall: Further Navy Fallout?
Get PDFPending investigation, Xi Jinping’s protégé Admiral Miao Hua (苗华) has been suspended from his duties as a member of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and Director of the CMC Political Work Department. This decision was made by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Central Committee, Defense Spokesperson Senior Colonel Wu Qian announced at the scheduled monthly People’s Liberation Army (PLA) press briefing on 28 November 2024, because Miao is “suspected of serious violation of discipline.” By the time such CCP investigations become public, conviction is a foregone conclusion. Miao’s fall thus raises three principal questions: Why is he being removed, will his cronies suffer similarly, and what does it mean for China’s navy and military?https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/1010/thumbnail.jp