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Study No. 4, China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
No full textStudies in Chinese Maritime Development No. 4, China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnershiphttps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1004/thumbnail.jp
Study No. 8, Chinese Amphibious Warfare: Prospects for a Cross-Strait Invasion
Get PDFThrough concerted efforts over the past quarter-century, the People\u27s Republic of China has achieved the most dramatic military buildup since World War II. Previously limited in its ability to conduct its Joint Firepower Strike, Joint Blockade, and Joint Island Landing Campaigns against Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is making rapid progress across the board as it prepares to meet the requirements of Xi Jinping’s Taiwan-focused Centennial Military Building Goal of 2027. Drawing on research, writing, and insights from some of the world’s leading experts, CMSI’s latest edited conference volume probes key questions concerning Beijing’s determined pursuit of the Chinese Communist Party’s ultimate political and strategic prize: How might the PLA attempt to execute a Joint Island Landing Campaign to achieve a cross-Strait invasion of Taiwan, what might be its prospects for success, and what must Taiwan—with American support—do urgently to shore up deterrence? The findings are nuanced but bracing. The saving grace, till now, is that Taiwan enjoys formidable defensive geography, and a large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most difficult military operations to accomplish. However, under Xi’s concerted directives, China’s military is reforming relentlessly, bringing critical new capabilities to bear, and training tirelessly to improve its ability to carry out the operations on which it is bore-sighted. The stakes could scarcely be higher, and the clock is ticking.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1000/thumbnail.jp
CMSI Note #3: “Choose the Right Person, Choose the Right Path”: Taiwan’s Cross-Strait, National Security, and Defense Policies Under a Lai/Hsiao Administration
Get PDFCMSI’s Perspectives and Key Takeaways: The incoming William Lai/Bi-khim Hsiao administration almost certainly intends to continue to execute and deepen President Tsai’s defense reforms. Lai has also stated his support for the implementation of an Indo-Pacific Strategy concept. Lai has an opportunity to leverage the national security experience of President Tsai’s outgoing advisors, who may potentially help his administration calibrate Taiwan’s responses to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military provocations in and around the Taiwan Strait. The Lai administration likely would prove receptive to U.S. and partner overtures that contribute to Taiwan’s ability to strengthen its maritime domain awareness and security; enhance maritime law enforcement and search and rescue capabilities; conduct maritime patrols; and improve information sharing. Lai intends to maintain the cross-Strait status quo, and has stated that he is willing to conduct dialogue with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the basis of mutual respect and equality. Lai almost certainly will seek to continue President Tsai Ing-wen’s policy of diversifying Taiwan’s economy and expanding sustainable trade partnerships with democratic nations. He has stated that overdependence on the PRC leaves Taiwan vulnerable to economic coercion, and thus opposes pursuing further economic agreements with China under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) or a potential Cross-Strait Trade in Services Agreement (CSTSA).https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/1002/thumbnail.jp
Recent Developments in the Jurisprudence Concerning the Delimitation of the Continental Shelf Beyond 200 Nautical Miles: Analysis of the Mauritius/Maldives and Nicaragua v. Colombia Cases
Get PDFThis article examines recent developments in the jurisprudence related to the delimitation of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles by analyzing the Mauritius/Maldives and Nicaragua v. Colombia cases. The ITLOS Special Chamber in Mauritius/Maldives did not delimit the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles due to applying the standard of “significant uncertainty.” In this regard, the scope of and criterion for the standard of “significant uncertainty” merit discussion. The ICJ, in Nicaragua v. Colombia, identified a rule of customary international law that the continental shelf of a State beyond 200 nautical miles may not extend within 200 nautical miles from the baselines of another State. While the holding is crucial, its reasoning needs further consideration. After an examination of the two cases, this article will conclude that despite the difference in the approaches taken by the ICJ and ITLOS Special Chamber, the legal consequence will remain the same: no effect shall be given to a continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles that extends into the 200 nautical mile EEZ of another State
Episode 12: Rise of the Machines? Implications of New Tech On-And Off-The Battlefield
No full textSynopsis:How have new technologies, such as autonomous drones and applying artificial intelligence, changed how strategists and policymakers view conflict in the 21st century? While they have had clear impacts in the tactical and operational levels of war, how game-changing are they when it comes to strategic objectives? Are we in thrall to strategic myths arising from technological determinism? Join us for this important conversation.
About the Speaker:LTC Paul Lushenko is an Assistant Professor and Director of Special Operations at the U.S. Army War College. He earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in International Relations from Cornell University. He also holds an M.A. in Defense and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College, an M.A. in International Relations and a Master of Diplomacy from The Australian National University, and a B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy. Paul has deployed continuously, directing intelligence operations at the Battalion, Combined Task Force, and Joint Task Force levels. In his most recent operational assignment, Paul served as the Senior Intelligence Officer for the Joint Special Operations Task Force in Afghanistan and was also responsible for shaping the coalition’s strategy to defeat the Islamic State and helping to regionalize U.S. counterterrorism policy and strategy. Paul is a Council on Foreign Relations Term Member, Adjunct Research Lecturer at Charles Sturt University, and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Cornell University’s Tech Policy Institute. He is the co-editor of Drones and Global Order: Implications of Remote Warfare for International Society (2022), which is the first book to systematically study the implications of drone warfare on global politics. He also has a book forthcoming on the public’s perceptions of legitimate drone strikes, entitled The Legitimacy of Drone Warfare: Evaluating Public Perceptions (2024).
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The views presented by the faculty or other guest speakers do not reflect official positions of the Naval War College, DON or DOD.
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Cyberspace and the Jus ad Bellum: The State of Play
Get PDFThis article examines how States are interpreting one aspect of the international law governing cyber activities, the jus ad bellum. The article focuses on two issues: (1) the prohibition on the use of force found in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, and (2) the right of self-defense in Article 51. The critical unsettled question regarding the first issue is the threshold at which a hostile cyber operation can be characterized as a “use of force” subject to the prohibition of Article 2(4). Concerning the second issue, a number of unresolved questions plague the application of the right of self-defense in cyberspace. Most prominent among them is the analog to the use of force challenge, that is, determining when a cyber use of force in cyberspace crosses the “armed attack” threshold, thereby triggering the right of self-defense. Other key issues include anticipatory self-defense, attacks by non-State actors, and defensive operations into States that did not launch the underlying armed attack. The article does not seek to settle these matters. It merely identifies the current state of play to better inform State legal advisers and other concerned international lawyers on trends in the interpretation of the jus ad bellum that are apparent in State verbal practice. As national positions, the State material cited qualifies as opinio juris. Accordingly, it is normatively significant
Episode 4: Against All Enemies – Foreign and Domestic; the Growth of Far-Right Extremism in America
No full textGuests Dr. Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware join host Col. Dave Brown and co-host Dr. Timothy Hoyt to discuss the modern growth of Far-Right terrorism in the United States; its definitions and distinctions, historical roots, major groups, recruitment, connections to U.S. military services, international expansion, and policy options in confronting these emerging militant movements.
Articles: God, Guns, and Sedition - Far-Right Terrorism in America, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, Columbia University Press, Jan 2024Why the Far-Right Terrorist Threat Is Often Misunderstood and Underestimated, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, CFR, 26 Feb The Urgent Mission to Counter Military Extremism, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, U.S. NEWS, 19 Jan 2024 How the United States Became a Leading Exporter of White Supremacist Terrorism, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, Foreign Affairs, 19 Sept 23 The Terrorist Threats and Trends to Watch Out for in 2023 and Beyond, B. Hoffman & J. Ware, CTC Sentinel, Nov/Dec 2022, Vol 15, Issue 11.
------------------------ Guests:
Bruce Hoffman, Ph.D. Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He has been studying terrorism and insurgency for almost half a century. He is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and professor emeritus of terrorism studies at the University of St Andrews; and the George H. Gilmore Senior Fellow at the US Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center. He is the author of a number of books including Inside Terrorism, 3rd edition.
Jacob Ware: Research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he studies domestic and international terrorism and counterterrorism. He was previously a research associate for counterterrorism at CFR. In addition to his work at CFR, Ware is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches a class on domestic terrorism. He also serves on the editorial boards for the academic journal Studies in Conflict & Terrorism and the Irregular Warfare Initiative at the Modern War Institute at West Point.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1003/thumbnail.jp
Episode 7: Dire Straits – Maritime Attacks in the Red Sea & the Persian Gulf
No full textIn anticipation of CIWAG’s 2024 Maritime Symposium: Exploring Our Maritime Strategies – II, scheduled for June 24-25, Guest Dr. Ian Ralby joins host COL Dave Brown to discuss the two great maritime straits in the Middle East. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf currently share several things; both are under threat and both have tremendous implications related not only to global shipping, but by extension, the entire global economy. Listen to this episode to gain an overview of the threats to these two critical maritime regions. Join us for more in-depth discussion, at our Maritime Symposium 24-25 June, by registering here.
Articles: Maritime Terrorism Is On The Rise Whether We Notice It Or Not, The Diplomatic Courier, 23 May 2024 IntelBrief: Iran and the Houthis Issue New Threats to Commercial Shipping, The Soufan Center, 26 Mar 2024 Escalating Houthi Attacks Could Affect 90% of World Trade, ABC News, 21 Feb 2024
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Guest:
Ian M. Ralby, Ph.D. is a globally recognized expert in maritime law and security, especially addressing evolving threats, maritime strategy, and the global maritime economy. In addition to being founder and CEO of I.R. Consilium, providing advice and assistance on maritime and resource security, he is also a Fellow at the Center on Maritime Strategy in partnership with the Navy League, and an affiliate of several institutions including the U.S. Naval War College, the Defense Institute of International Legal Studies, and the Institute for Security Governance. He previously spent 6 years as an Adjunct Professor of Maritime Law and Security at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, and served 5 years as a subject matter expert on Maritime Crime for the United Nations Office on Drugs and the Global Maritime Crime Program. Selected Publicationshttps://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1006/thumbnail.jp