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Evaluating water temperature variability in a Colorado watershed using drone imagery
No full textWater resources are essential for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower, particularly in the western United States. Climate change is altering the timing and availability of these resources, especially in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. This study examines how physical characteristics and climatic factors influence the spatial and temporal variability of beaver pond surface temperatures within the East River watershed, Colorado. Using high-frequency temperature and hydrological data, along with bathymetric and thermal data from Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS), we assessed the relationships among pond surface temperature, air temperature, and stream discharge, a proxy for snowmelt. Structure from Motion (SfM) was employed to map pond bathymetry, and thermal infrared imagery was used to analyze pond surface temperature. A total of 55 flights across 2022 and 2023 imaged 64 different beaver ponds. Air temperature was the best predictor of mean pond temperature across time, while the timing of spring warming and pond depth explained among-pond variability in surface water temperature. This study reveals the potential of repeated flights by UAS to enhance our understanding of climate-driven hydrological changes and provides an important foundation for future investigation of the impacts of such changes on aquatic ecosystems in mountain environments
Recurring Patterns in Democratic Backsliding: The United States, Hungary, and Israel
No full textUtilizing a three-pronged analysis method, this article argues that not only is democratic backsliding – the degrading quality of democratic institutions in a state – on the rise but that it has frequent recurring themes. These themes are consolidation of executive authority, changes in court power and judicial independence, and election manipulation. Utilizing a combination of public opinion research and indexes such as Freedom House and the Global State of Democracy Index (GSDI), these themes emerge as patterns that are both understood and misconstrued by citizens in each country and of the world. The analysis is based on themes in the United States, Hungary, and Israel. Notably, the backsliding factors cataloged and analyzed in Israel focus on the judiciary reform passed by Benjamin Netanyahu and not how the war between Israel and Gaza has impacted democratic quality as neither Hungary nor the United States are actively engaged in a war of similar caliber. Focusing specifically on how these patterns emerge in the United States, Hungary, and Israel, this article seeks to affirm the signs and the ongoing reality of democratic backsliding in a post-Cold War environment
On the Persistence of Justice: Is justice always the bedrock of a political constitution?
No full textThis paper seeks to determine the extent to which justice is required in premodern political constitutional thought. For coherence, I have calibrated this paper’s focus to the works of Plato, Augustine, and Machiavelli. Plato embodies the foundation of justice in Western political theory; Augustine, its early Christianization; and Machiavelli, removed by the better part of a millennium as he is from the two former, represents the later progression of justice as a concept. All develop political constitutions reliant upon some form of justice. I begin with a summary of the coherence of justice despite significant evolution over time, establishing three components of justice: justice as social, as educational, and as being in the service of a society’s “good.” I apply this threefold definition to the three thinkers selected. I investigate Platonic justice, noting the emphasis Plato places upon the value of guardianship, education, and proper structure. From this point, I investigate the Augustinian construction of justice, taking particular note of the Christianizing shifts Augustine represents in priority and the good. I finally engage with Machiavelli as a counterpoint, critically assessing the claim that his idea of political constitution is somehow divorced from just organization or action. I conclude that Machiavellian thought does not allow for unjust government: Machiavelli draws heavily upon the Ciceronian application of justice and laws as virtue-giving in the context of civic duty. Justice is always, that is, persistently, the bedrock of political constitution. In the premodern conception, social organization requires justice in all its forms
Skepticism Beyond Knowledge: External World Moral Skepticism and the Crisis of Political Rhetoric
Full text linkThis paper examines the application of external world moral skepticism to contemporary political discourse and decision-making processes. Drawing from epistemological traditions that question our ability to access moral truths about the external world, I argue that a pervasive form of moral skepticism has infiltrated modern political rhetoric, creating a crisis of justification for political action. Through discursive analysis of political communication across partisan divides, I demonstrate how skeptical attitudes toward external moral facts have transformed from philosophical positions to rhetorical strategies that undermine democratic deliberation. This transformation has significant implications for how political actors justify policies, how citizens evaluate political claims, and ultimately how democratic societies make collective decisions. I conclude by proposing a pragmatic framework for political discourse that acknowledges the challenges posed by moral skepticism while preserving the normative foundations necessary for democratic governance
One Step Back, Two Steps Forward: How Ballistic Missile Defenses Put us on the Path to War
Full text linkThis article argues that the use of credible homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems counterintuitively encourages offense dominance by undermining the deterrence by punishment behind mutually assured destruction (MAD). It contends that while BMD is a defensive technology, under conditions of MAD that defensive capability, if credible, is perceived by adversaries to signal an intention to circumvent deterrence. Fearing an attack with impunity, adversaries increase their supply of offensive weapons, pressuring defenders to improve their BMD capabilities, and an arms race thus emerges. Using detailed case studies of Israel’s missile defense against the Axis of Resistance and Chinese reactions to the United States\u27 growing ambitions for homeland missile defenses, this article demonstrates how defensive technologies provoke offensive buildups, erode strategic trust, and ultimately contribute to international instability. It concludes by urging reconsideration of homeland missile defense development and proposes limited, point-defense solutions as more stabilizing alternatives
