Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs (JCUA - Alanya Hamdullah Emin Paşa Üniversitesi)
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A Performance Forecasting Model for Optimizing CDF-Funded Construction Projects in the Copperbelt Province, Zambia
No full textThe Constituency Development Fund (CDF) has become a key mechanism for delivering small-scale urban infrastructure in Zambia. However, persistent challenges such as project delays, cost overruns, and quality deficiencies undermine the effectiveness of these interventions. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature and practice by developing a novel performance forecasting model tailored to the unique governance and technical context of CDF-funded projects. The model integrates Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to forecast performance across five key indicators: cost-effectiveness, schedule adherence, quality compliance, safety performance, and client satisfaction. Using stakeholder data from 196 respondents and historical project records, the model was trained and validated using MATLAB. It achieved strong predictive accuracy, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.92 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09. These results demonstrate the model’s utility as a decision-support tool for local authorities and urban planners, enabling early detection of underperformance and facilitating proactive interventions. The model contributes to performance-based planning by providing a data-driven, stakeholder-informed forecasting framework that is adaptable to resource-constrained environments. Its application can enhance transparency, optimize resource use, and support inclusive urban development in rapidly growing municipalities
Assessing Urban Sprawl and Agricultural Land Loss: A 40-Year Remote Sensing Study in Çanakkale
Full text linkThis study investigates the spatial expansion of rapid urbanization and its pressure on agricultural and natural lands within a socio-economic framework. Covering a 40-year period from 1984 to 2024, the research focuses on the central district of Çanakkale and employs spatial analysis methods alongside regression models. Findings reveal significant losses in agricultural lands adjacent to the city center due to urbanization, coinciding with rising employment in industrial and service sectors. Land use and cover maps for multiple years were produced from remote sensing data, achieving classification accuracy above 85% and kappa coefficients exceeding 0.80, ensuring analytical reliability. Regression results indicate a strong negative correlation between employment in the service sector and agricultural land (r = -0.82, p < 0.05), highlighting the role of economic transformation in rural land use change. The study demonstrates that urbanization should be understood not only as physical growth but as a process intertwined with economic restructuring and social change. By integrating spatial transformations with socio-economic dynamics, it offers insights into balancing development with the protection of productive land. The findings contribute to contemporary debates on inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban environments, enriching the academic literature on the socio-economic dimensions of urban transformation
Assessing Key Factors Influencing Rental Housing Choices and Affordability for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS): A Neighborhood Study in Delhi
No full textThe Economically Weaker Section (EWS) is constrained to live in slums and unauthorized colonies due to the lack of suitable housing options and affordability issues. Various factors such as building characteristics, financial constraints, and social considerations influence individuals\u27 decisions regarding accommodation. A neighborhood in Delhi was chosen for a study to assess the importance of these factors for the EWS in rental housing. A total of 383 sample surveys were carried out to examine the socioeconomic variables and key factors influencing their choice of location, supplemented by 10 in-depth interviews to uncover hidden factors not typically found in existing literature. Principal Component Analysis was employed to identify the most crucial factors influencing accommodation choices. The study findings indicate that while the physical, locational, and economic aspects of rental housing are crucial, social factors also play a significant role. This research will offer invaluable insights to urban planners and policymakers to facilitate the provision of rental housing based on individual preferences in formulating housing policies
Factors Affecting Urban Housing Development in Lusaka, Zambia
Full text linkThis study investigates the factors affecting urban housing development in Lusaka, Zambia, a city facing significant challenges due to rapid urbanization and a high prevalence of inadequate housing. Utilizing the Delphi method, data was collected through two iterative rounds from a panel of 10 experts to identify and evaluate 15 factors contributing to poor housing outcomes. The findings reveal that political influence, poor linkage between infrastructure investment and service delivery, lack of access to affordable housing finance, weak urban governance, and high mortgage interest rates are the key factors impeding urban housing development in Lusaka. The study recommends developing an integrated housing planning framework, tailored housing finance products for low-income earners, and promoting governance principles to enhance transparency and accountability in housing development. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting socio-economic areas requiring intervention to achieve sustainable urban housing development
The Dynamics of Heritagization in Urban Regeneration: East-West Dichotomy
No full textHeritagization —the process of assigning heritage value to places, objects, or traditions— has become increasingly entwined with urban regeneration initiatives. However, its theoretical grounding remains underdeveloped, particularly regarding its diverse expressions across Eastern and Western contexts. This study examines the dynamics of heritagization as both a cultural and socio-political process within urban regeneration, drawing on the framework of Critical Heritage Studies. Using a descriptive qualitative methodology and global case-based literature review, the research dissects how heritage is strategically reinterpreted to fulfil contemporary socio-economic and political goals. Findings reveal a clear East–West dichotomy: while Western practices often commodify heritage for branding and tourism, Eastern cases reflect heritage as a tool for identity reconstruction, postcolonial resilience, and state-led regeneration. The study argues that heritagization should be understood not as a Western-centric imposition, but as a globally variable process shaped by local agency, historical context, and development agendas. To support this claim, the paper presents comparative process diagrams delineating regional differences. Ultimately, this research contributes to a more nuanced, decolonised understanding of heritagization in the built environment
Landscape of Anonymity: Transforming the Retired COVID-19 Field Medical Facility into A Memorial Park
Full text linkDuring the COVID-19 emergency, the escalating number of cases overwhelmed the admission capacity of operating hospitals in many cities. The pandemic thus prompted the rapid construction of temporary field hospitals in cities like Wuhan, China, to relieve pressure on existing health infrastructure. While their operational phase has been well-documented, the post-pandemic reuse of these facilities remains underexplored. This study proposes a novel design paradigm - Anonymity Landscape Memorial Design - to transform the retired Huoshenshan Field Hospital into a public memorial park. Drawing on counter-memorial theory and spatial translation methods, the project reimagines commemorative landscapes through abstraction, emotional disruption, and interactive experience, rather than conventional symbolism. The design unfolds in four stages aligned with the emotional arc of the pandemic: outbreak, lockdown, recovery, and reflection. Methodologically, the study integrates multi-source data analysis, theoretical modeling, and adaptive reuse strategies to address spatial, social, and economic dimensions. Findings demonstrate how this approach fosters inclusive memory-making while yielding 62.5% material recycling and approximately CNY 7.94 million (US$1.10million) in cost savings. The project contributes a replicable framework for converting ephemeral urban infrastructure into resilient civic spaces that blend memory, sustainability, and public use. These outcomes demonstrate how post-pandemic urban transformations can reduce resource waste, strengthen local economies, enhance spatial equity, and expand access to quality civic spaces – offering insightful perspectives to other COVID-19-affected cities on similar issues of contemporary urbanisation
Critical Success Barriers (CSB) to Rental Housing Policy Implementation in Urban India
Full text linkBarriers to rental housing (RH) pose significant challenges to urban development in India. This study examines critical success barriers (CSBs) to implementing RH policies, offering novel insights into this underexplored area. Despite rising demand for RH, significant obstacles hinder effective policy execution. Through expert surveys with 36 respondents and RIDIT analysis, the research identifies and prioritizes 16 CSBs, categorized into Regulatory and Institutional, Economic and Market, and Infrastructure and Development groups. Key findings reveal that the most critical barriers are inflexible rental agreements, negative social attitudes, and the absence of government incentives. These interdependent barriers impact the feasibility, attractiveness, and sustainability of RH projects. Inflexible agreements limit participation, negative social attitudes hinder inclusive development, and lack of incentives reduces private investment. The study recommends revising rental agreements, providing substantial incentives to private investors, and promoting high-density development through modified zoning regulations. Emphasizing multi-level governance, stakeholder engagement, and regular policy evaluations is crucial for effective implementation. Addressing these barriers can enhance the RH sector\u27s sustainability and scalability. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing a quantitative framework for identifying and prioritizing CSBs in the RH, offering valuable insights for policymakers, developers, and stakeholders in urban housing
Smart Technologies for Socioeconomic Sustainability in Urban Housing: A Southeast Asian Perspective
No full textRapid urbanisation across Southeast Asia intensifies the demand for housing that is simultaneously affordable, sustainable, and socially inclusive. This study investigates how smart technologies—Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things devices (IoT), Building Information Modelling, and passive cooling innovations—can advance socioeconomic sustainability in urban housing. A three-phase methodology combined a scientometric analysis of 454 Scopus-indexed papers, a systematic literature review of eight rigorously screened studies, and a qualitative content analysis of practice-based sources. The scientometric mapping reveals growing scholarly attention to energy efficiency and climate resilience, yet affordability and social equity remain peripheral themes. Evidence from Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand shows that smart sensors, digital simulations, and value-management frameworks can reduce cooling energy by up to 18,000 kWh annually, cut construction costs, and enhance thermal comfort in low-income settings. However, adoption is uneven owing to high capital costs, limited policy incentives, and skills gaps. The study proposes an integrated framework linking environmental performance, housing affordability, and social inclusion through appropriate digital tools. Policymakers and urban planners are urged to embed financing mechanisms, capacity-building, and participatory design into housing programmes to mainstream technology-enabled, equitable sustainability across the region within the next decade
Urban Morphology and Energy Performance: Spatial-Simulation Assessment from Hebron, Palestine
No full textUrban morphology critically governs residential energy demand, yet empirical evidence from semi-arid, geopolitically constrained cities remains scarce. This study quantifies the influence of neighbourhood form on heating and cooling loads in Hebron, Palestine. Three morphologically distinct districts—Old City (compact), Zeitoun (semi-structured) and Al Sheikh (unplanned sprawl)—were mapped in ArcGIS Pro to derive Floor Space Index, Ground Space Index and Open Space Ratio. Prototype mid-rise dwellings were modelled in DesignBuilder and simulated with EnergyPlus under identical boundary conditions. Pearson correlations and ANOVA assessed relationships between morphological variables and annual loads. Results show cooling demand decreases by 34 % as FSI rises from 0.7 to 1.2, whereas heating demand doubles under the same densification. The moderately dense Zeitoun configuration (FSI≈1.0, OSR≈1.6) achieved the lowest combined energy use, outperforming both extreme forms. Findings demonstrate that mid-rise, medium-density layouts balance summer shading with winter solar access, offering a viable pathway for energy-aware expansion in semi-arid contexts. The integrated spatial-simulation framework provides planners with transferable metrics for zoning and retrofit prioritisation, supporting climate-responsive urban policy across the Middle East. Future research should incorporate behavioural patterns and multiple building typologies to refine these benchmarks under climate-change scenarios
What Do Egypt’s New Urban Communities Need to Outperform? A Strategic Framework for Equitable Population Redistribution
No full textLow occupancy and persistent dependence on Greater Cairo reveal that Egypt’s New Urban Communities (NUCs) cannot fully fulfil their foundational mandate of population redistribution. Grounded in polycentric urban governance theory, this study evaluates the effectiveness, livability, economic autonomy and strategic practice of twenty-two NUCs. Mixed-method analysis combined official statistics, spatial datasets and a questionnaire survey of fifty-four domain experts. Quantitative indicators show that, on average, NUCs have absorbed only 31 % of their planned residents; densities in five cities remain well below the UN-Habitat benchmark of 7,000 inh./km². Expert scores confirm low liveability (mean = 3.26/6) and merely moderate economic independence (3.92/6), while strategic review exposes unrealistic population targets and contradictory datasets across national platforms. Synthesizing these insights, the research formulates a five-phase integrated development strategy: (1) revise NUCA’s vision in line with Egypt Vision 2030/2050; (2) establish an up-to-date geo-referenced database; (3) conduct SWOT diagnostics; (4) delineate mutual and unique development areas; (5) implement a realistic, priority-driven strategic plan that mobilises private partnerships and community input. The findings mirror international evidence that new cities risk privileging real-estate speculation over long-term socio-economic sustainability, providing a transferrable framework for corrective action and immediate implementation