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Sensitivity Analysis and Bayesian Calibration of a Holmquist-Johnson-Cook Material Model for Cellular Concrete Subjected to Impact Loading
No full textPeriodic updates to small caliber weapon systems and projectiles used in military and law enforcement have resulted in consistently increasing material penetration capabilities. With each new generation, ballistics technology outpaces the lifecycle replacement of live-fire training facilities. For this reason, it is necessary to develop and maintain constitutive material models for use in analyzing the effects new threats will have on existing facilities and for designing new training facilities using numerical methods. This project utilizes material testing data to characterize cellular concretes used in the construction of live-fire training facilities with a 13-parameter Holmquist-Johnson-Cook (HJC) concrete constitutive model. Various statistical tools are used in this analysis to successfully describe the importance of each model parameter and quantify their uncertainty. First, Bayesian linear regression was used to calibrate the parameters in the strength and pressure components of the HJC material model given testing data of cellular concrete. These uncertain parameters were then used to construct computer simulations of penetration and perforation experiments that were previously conducted by Collard and Lanham. Then, Latin Hypercube Sampling of the parameter space was used to generate training data for a Gaussian Process surrogate model of the computer simulation. Using the surrogate model, a global variance-based sensitivity analysis of the material model was completed by computing main and total effect Sobol indices. Finally, a Bayesian calibration of the computer simulation based on the physical experiments was conducted to fully characterize the stochastic behavior of the material subjected to perforation impacts. These approaches can be used to inform decision makers about the potential risk associated with existing facilities and by designers of future live fire training facilities
Seeing and Connecting the Dots: Legal Challenges to Countering Foreign Cyberattacks Launched from Within U.S. Domestic Cyberspace
No full textLast year, General Nakasone, Commanding General of Cyber Command, testified to Congress that the foreign adversaries who conducted the SolarWinds hack utilized U.S. domestic cyberspace (consisting of leased Amazon Web Services cloud servers). They did so in order to evade Cyber Command detection due to legal restrictions on Cyber Command operations in U.S. cyberspace. In the words of General Nakasone, our adversaries “exploit[ed] a gap.” As a result, he stated “It’s not that we can’t connect the dots. We can’t see all the dots.” This tactic and potential methods of addressing this gap raise serious concerns, from the perspective of the 4th Amendment, FISA and the Executive Powers. This article examines each of these three legal lenses and their intersections as applied to this new tactic and concludes with considerations for lawmakers to address in attempting to resolve this challenge
Off-Policy Evaluation for Action-Dependent Non-Stationary Environments
Get PDFMethods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes due to external factors (passive non-stationarity), changes induced by interactions with the system itself (active non-stationarity), or both (hybrid non-stationarity). In this work, we take the first steps towards the fundamental challenge of on-policy and off-policy evaluation amidst structured changes due to active, passive, or hybrid non-stationarity. Towards this goal, we make a higher-order stationarity assumption such that non-stationarity results in changes over time, but the way changes happen is fixed. We propose, OPEN, an algorithm that uses a double application of counterfactual reasoning and a novel importance-weighted instrument-variable regression to obtain both a lower bias and a lower variance estimate of the structure in the changes of a policy’s past performances. Finally, we show promising results on how OPEN can be used to predict future performances for several domains inspired by real-world applications that exhibit non-stationarity
Context-aware Collaborative Neuro-Symbolic Inference in Internet of Battlefield Things
Get PDFIoBTs must feature collaborative, context-aware, multi-modal fusion for real-time, robust decision-making in adversarial environments. The integration of machine learning (ML) models into IoBTs has been successful at solving these problems at a small scale (e.g., AiTR), but state-of-the-art ML models grow exponentially with increasing temporal and spatial scale of modeled phenomena, and can thus become brittle, untrustworthy, and vulnerable when interpreting large-scale tactical edge data. To address this challenge, we need to develop principles and methodologies for uncertainty-quantified neuro-symbolic ML, where learning and inference exploit symbolic knowledge and reasoning, in addition to, multi-modal and multi-vantage sensor data. The approach features integrated neuro-symbolic inference, where symbolic context is used by deep learning, and deep learning models provide atomic concepts for symbolic reasoning. The incorporation of high-level symbolic reasoning improves data efficiency during training and makes inference more robust, interpretable, and resource-efficient. In this paper, we identify the key challenges in developing context-aware collaborative neuro-symbolic inference in IoBTs and review some recent progress in addressing these gaps
Payload-Byte: A Tool for Extracting and Labeling Packet Capture Files of Modern Network Intrusion Detection Datasets
Get PDFAdapting modern approaches for network intrusion detection is becoming critical, given the rapid technological advancement and adversarial attack rates. Therefore, packet-based methods utilizing payload data are gaining much popularity due to their effectiveness in detecting certain attacks. However, packet-based approaches suffer from a lack of standardization, resulting in incomparability and reproducibility issues. Unlike flow-based datasets, no standard labeled dataset exists, forcing researchers to follow bespoke labeling pipelines for individual approaches. Without a standardized baseline, proposed approaches cannot be compared and evaluated with each other. One cannot gauge whether the proposed approach is a methodological advancement or is just being benefited from the proprietary interpretation of the dataset. Addressing comparability and reproducibility issues, we introduce Payload-Byte, an open-source tool for extracting and labeling network packets in this work. Payload-Byte utilizes metadata information and labels raw traffic captures of modern intrusion detection datasets in a generalized manner. Moreover, we transformed the labeled data into a byte-wise feature vector that can be utilized for training machine learning models. The whole cycle of processing and labeling is explicitly stated in this work. Furthermore, source code and processed data are made publicly available so that it may act as a standardized baseline for future research work. Lastly, we present a brief comparative analysis of machine learning models trained on packet-based and flow-based data
Bouncing Forward from COVID in Higher Education
Get PDFThis paper is a call to arms to bounce forward in the classroom as we emerge from the COVID crisis. The predominant return to in-person classes in higher education should not be a return to the same normal classroom conditions that existed prior to the pandemic. In the last 2+ years, we have come an extraordinarily long way in our abilities and in our inclinations to employ technologies and techniques in a blended classroom environment that truly improves the learning experience. In this paper, we call for and contribute to such an effort. Tying into the abundance of literature dealing with the COVID educational environment, we present our findings and ideas from carefully studying our own faculty. We summarize our overall findings as well as describe in detail three general categories that we believe hold great promise for improving the higher education classroom in the post-crisis era, namely digital chalkboards / screen sharing; remote participation and collaboration; and a paperless classroom. We argue that educators have an obligation and opportunity to not simply return to pre-crisis methods
Drones Will not Liberate Ukraine – but Tanks Will
No full textA counteroffensive needs protected firepower that can follow the maneuvering units. Tanks fill that role to support mechanized and light infantry in their forward movement. Post-1990, modern Western tanks have improved sensors and targeting systems, the later versions with laser range finders and thermal imaging. Electronic warfare cannot intercept a tank round; once it is on its way, the round will continue until it hits. Properly used, tanks remain a key system on the frontlines. Advanced armored vehicles (many of which now sit in Western storage facilities) have the power to turn the military tide. The pretense by democratic countries that supplying tanks to Ukraine is escalation is simply fatuous. It is time to dust them down and send them eastwards
POWs in the Age of the Internet
Get PDFA future great power conflict could potentially involve large numbers of prisoners of war (POWs)—US, Allied, and partner nations—imprisoned by regimes that could seek to utilize and exploit these captives for propaganda gain. Deepfakes and digital manipulation technology provide an advantageous opportunity for a captor aiming to mitigate international humanitarian law concerns regarding the rules for POW treatment. Such an adversary could use manipulated audio and images of POWs to forward their cause, undermine the Alliance cohesion, attack the mutual will to fight, and reduce POWs’ will to resist. The risk of becoming a POW has steadily disappeared from the minds of US military members after two decades of counterinsurgency and antiterrorism operations. The memories of the Cold War and the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe—and the general understanding of what captivity means—are diminishing. This prospect, however, should not be forgotten as the potential for the capture of sizeable numbers of POWs in a large-scale conflict is a distinct possibility. The general strategic direction has recently changed from counterterrorism and antiterrorism operations toward great power competition and potentially protracted conflicts involving near-peer nation-states. Since the Cold War, air mobility, standoff weaponry, capabilities for deep strikes into enemy territory, and faster decision cycles have created a new battlefield. The modern battlefield is ever changing. High-paced engagements and mobility cross multiple war-fighting domains create the potential for a fragmented, fluid fight. In this unpredictable, widespread, rapidly changing, and violent environment, the potential for large numbers of POWs is high
Future Implications of Emerging Disruptive Technologies on Weapons of Mass Destruction
Get PDFThis report asks the questions: What are the future implications of Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) on the future of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) warfare? How might EDTs increase the lethality and effectiveness of WMDs in kinetic warfare in 2040? How can civic leaders and public servants prepare for and mitigate projected threats?
Problem
In the coming decade, state and non-state adversaries will use EDTs to attack systems and populations that may initiate and accelerate existing geopolitical conflict escalation. EDTs are expected to be used both in the initial attack or escalation as well as a part of the detection and decision-making process. Due to the speed of EDTs, expected confusion, and common lack of human oversight, attacks will also be incorrectly attributed, which has the capacity to escalate rapid geopolitical conflict to global military conflict, and ultimately, to the use of nuclear WMDs.
The use of EDTs in the shadow of nuclear WMDs is also expected to create an existential threat to possible adversaries, pushing them to “lower the bar” of acceptability for using nuclear WMDs. EDTs will enable and embolden insider threats, both willing and unknowing, to effect geopolitical conflict on a global scale.
In addition, the combination of multiple EDTs when used together for attacks will create WMD effects on populations and governments. Furthermore, EDTs will be used by adversaries to target and destabilize critical infrastructure systems, such as food, energy, and transportation, etc. that will have a broader effect on populations and governments. EDTs will enable adversaries to perpetrate a long-game attack, where the effect and attribution of the attack may not be detected for an extended period -- if ever.
Solution
To combat these future threats, organizations will need to conduct research and intelligence gathering paired with exploratory research and development to better understand the state of EDTs and their potential impacts. With this information, organizations will need to conduct collaborative “wargaming” and planning to explore a range of possible and potential threats of EDTs. The knowledge gained from all of these activities will inform future training and best practices to prepare for and address these threats.
Organizations will also need to increase their investments in EDT related domains, necessitating countries to not only change how they fight, but also evolve their thinking about deterrence. Expanded regulation, policy making, and political solidarity among members will take on an increasingly more significant and expanded role. Broader government, military, and civilian cooperation will be needed to disrupt and mitigate some of these future threats in conjunction with broader public awareness. All of these actions will place a higher value on cooperation and shared resiliency among NATO members
Building West Point: 1802–1830
Get PDFThis book chronicles the landscape history of the United States Military Academy\u27s first three decades. Major buildings at West Point are described and maps and illustrations highlight the changes made during the period. Covers the Williams, Partridge, and Thayer superintendencies.https://digitalcommons.usmalibrary.org/books/1044/thumbnail.jp