University at Albany, State University of New York
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Assessment of the Likelihood to Stay below 2 Degree Celsius Warming: Combining Modeling and Scenario Uncertainty.
Full text linkABSTRACT
Uncertainty in how much the Earth will warm in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations remains a major challenge for climate science and policy. In particular, estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) directly affect projections of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and the allowable carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C by 2100.
This study assesses the performance of a two-layer energy balance model (EBM) in reproducing TCR and ECS values under CMIP6 forcing scenarios, with a focus on SSP2-4.5. EBM outputs are compared against General Circulation Models (GCMs), and agreement is evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation analysis, validating the application of the EBM parameterization for the global mean climate analysis. The study further examines the application of the emerging constraint framework and performs a sensitivity analysis showing that radiative forcing (s′) exerts the greatest influence on ECS estimates. Notably, the emerging constraint method yields a higher central estimate of ECS (mean:5.15 K, 95%CI:[2.09-8.17 K]) compared to the CMIP6 EBM simulations (3.80 K, 95% CI: [2.11-5.49 K]), reflecting the influence of high forcing to temperature ratios in select models. Finally, probabilistic projections of exceeding 2°C warming by 2100 are generated using weighted SSP scenario ensembles informed by socioeconomic indicators. Results suggest that mid-range scenarios (e.g., SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-3.4) represent the most likely pathways, with probabilities of exceeding 2 °C of global warming reaching 70-80% by late century. These findings highlight the need for caution in applying emerging constraints to policy contexts and support the use of weighted scenario frameworks for robust climate risk assessment
Personal Characteristics, Goal Setting, and Academic Thriving
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This dissertation examines if pre-existing personal characteristics influence the effectiveness of a reflective goal-setting intervention on credits completed among first-year university students. Grounded in goal-setting theory and self-regulated learning frameworks, the study investigates the roles of self-efficacy, intrinsic motivation, metacognitive strategies, and autonomy in shaping students’ academic outcomes. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, four distinct learner profiles were identified based on these personal characteristics. A two-way repeated measures ANOVA was conducted to evaluate whether the intervention significantly affected students’ academic performance—measured in credits completed —over three time points (T0, T1, T2) across intervention and control groups.
The results revealed a statistically significant interaction between time and intervention condition, indicating a small but measurable effect of the reflective goal-setting intervention on semester-based academic performance. While descriptive trends suggested differences among learner profiles—such as relatively greater in credits completed among students in the “Confident Learners” cluster—these patterns were not statistically significant and should be interpreted with caution. The intervention did not result in measurable changes in metacognitive strategy use, and students in the “At-Risk Learners” cluster showed limited credits completed, suggesting the need for more comprehensive support strategies.
This study contributes to the literature by integrating person-centered clustering with longitudinal analysis to explore individual variability in response to reflective interventions. By using a conservative complete-case analysis approach, the findings offer a cautious but transparent perspective on the limited impact of short-term goal-setting interventions. The findings underscore the need for sustained multi-component approaches that combine goal setting with metacognitive skill development and personalized scaffolding. Implications are discussed for educators, academic advisors, and policy leaders seeking to support diverse learners in higher educatio
Comparison of femoral head loading in Chimpanzees and Humans
Full text linkChimpanzees are the closest living relatives of humans, despite this, the species do have very different loading on the epiphysis of the proximal head of the femur. The difference in loading is primarily due to a difference in locomotion. These differences affect the properties of subchondral and trabecular bone properties in the femoral head. Previous studies have shown that chimpanzees have thick and concave trabeculae that create a dense bone structure (Georgiou et al., 2018). These are found mostly on the inferior and central part of the femoral head. In humans, the structure of the trabecular bone volume is less than in chimpanzees, but there is high bone density in the inferior part of the femoral head (Georgiou et al., 2019). Differences in bone volume can be expected due to more loading. This is supported by Wolff’s Law, which states that bone responds to the stress that it experiences, meaning that in areas of higher loading, there can be an expectation to find more trabecular bone volume. Chimpanzees are facultative bipeds (Johnson et al., 2022), meaning they can walk bipedally but are primarily quadrupeds. Bipedalism in chimpanzees is characterized by their posture, which is “abducted, flexed hind limbs with greater rotations in the pelvis” (Johnson et al., 2022). When walking, chimpanzees will exhibit elevation in their pelvis on the side of the limb that is in the swing phase. On the contrary, humans will drop their pelvis during the same type of motion. The differences in pelvis elevation during the swing phase can potentially affect the loading on the femoral head. Thus, if differences in gait and posture are distinct between humans and chimpanzees, there can be an expected bone volume and trabecular volume difference in different regions of the femoral epiphysis in the two species
Essays on Health Economics
Full text linkThe first chapter examines whether Medicare Part D---the largest expansion of Medicare in recent decades---had a lasting impact on retirement behavior by providing subsidized prescription drug coverage to older adults. We employ a difference-in-difference-in-differences framework that compares changes in labor supply among individuals aged 65–68 versus 55–64 in a treatment group with employer-sponsored retiree health insurance (RHI) only until age 65, relative to a control group with lifetime RHI, before and after the 2006 implementation of Part D. Using data from Health and Retirement Study (2000-2018), we find that Part D reduces full-time employment by 6.52 percentage points among the treated older group, with approximately 31% of the effect driven by transitions from full-time to part-time work within the same job. The response is most pronounced among those with multiple chronic conditions, women, whites, non-Hispanics, the unmarried, and individuals without a college degree. Additional analysis shows that these effects are weakened after the Affordable Care Act, particularly among low-educated individuals in states that expanded Medicaid. This suggests that Medicaid expansion diminished the marginal insurance value of Medicare Part D by offering alternative public coverage, thereby reducing its effect on retirement behavior.
The second chapter examines the effects of increased trade between Japan and the U.S. on mortality rates in the U.S. using a shift-share instrumental variables approach. Overall, we find that an increase in Japanese imports is associated with higher rates of drug-related mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and lower rates of mortality from accidents. These effects exhibit significant racial disparities. Specifically, a 1,000 increase in import competition is associated with a 3.0% increase in CVD deaths per 100,000 Black individuals aged 20-64 years old, while there is no statistically significant effect among whites. Effects on mortality rates from accidents are driven by deaths among whites. Our findings also indicate that the rise in drug-related and CVD mortality is concentrated among males and in regions with relatively high shares of employment in the automobile or computer industries.
The third chapter examines the impacts of Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers (TRAP laws) on the supply of maternal care providers by exploiting the staggered enactment of TRAP laws across states. Our findings indicate a significant decrease in the number of Obstetrician-Gynecologists (OB/GYNs) by 3.38 to 3.55 per 100,000 females aged 15-44 following the enactment of TRAP laws. Furthermore, the enactment of TRAP laws affects the composition of OB/GYNs. The decline in response to TRAP laws is particularly pronounced among OB/GYNs under the age of 34 and those between the ages of 55 and 64. Newly graduated OB/GYNs, especially those from lower-ranked medical schools, also reduce their presence in states enacting TRAP laws. Although we do not find significant changes in applicants to OB/GYN residency programs or medical schools in response to TRAP laws, in-state applicants tend to shift their applications from private medical schools, which are often higher-ranked, to public medical schools.
The fourth chapter evaluates the density of maternal health care providers across urban and rural ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) and across ZCTAs with relatively high Black, Hispanic, and white populations. The data show striking urban-rural disparities in OB/GYN density, as well as differences in OB/GYN density across high white vs. high Black and high Hispanic ZCTAs. Including nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and the estimated ten percent of family practice physicians who provide maternal health care, in addition to OB/GYNs, increases maternity care provider density nationwide but exacerbates urban-rural and racial/ethnic disparities
Does Type of Metta Phrase Impact the Acceptability and Utility of Loving-Kindness Interventions: An Experimental Evaluation
No full textLoving-kindness (metta) meditation (LKM) is a widely utilized self-compassion intervention with numerous biopsychosocial benefits. Yet a smaller, emerging body of evidence suggests that LKM is difficult and various barriers impact its accessibility and effectiveness. Relational Frame Theory provides a behavioral and contextual perspective of language and cognition that may help clarify how LKM may yield receptivity or rejection of the practice itself. Prior research examining the role of language in LKM identified specific metta phrases more likely to evoke a coordinated (i.e., sameness/agreement) or oppositional (i.e., rejection/lacking) response, and found that indices of psychological suffering predicted oppositional responding (Underwood, 2023). Yet, it remains unclear whether these verbal relations impact LKM’s utility and acceptability. This study aimed to address this issue by evaluating the effectiveness of a brief, 15-minute LKM intervention and utilized a novel, idiographic method to examine how specific metta phrases impacted psychological, emotional, and behavioral outcomes. The two most favorable and two least favorable metta phrases from prior research were used. Undergraduates (N = 88) were randomized to a top choice phrase condition [n = 47] or last choice phrase condition [n = 41]. Participants completed validated measures of distress and well-being pre- and post-intervention. Results showed significant pre-to-post intervention improvements in state self-compassion, positive affect, and negative affect for both groups. Exploratory analyses revealed that participants who responded to their metta phrase with a frame of coordination were more receptive to the LKM and rated it as more beneficial and effective in generating feelings of kindness and compassion compared with participants who responded with a frame of opposition. These findings suggest that, although relational frames of coordination predict more favorable immediate experiences, both groups reaped similar benefits overall. Discussion clarifies language’s role in LKM and proposes ways to tailor LKM for improved accessibility and impact
Postnatal Programming of Infant Temperament at 12-Months: A Test of Lactation Programming Theory
No full textThe current study examined how maternal cortisol and breastfeeding duration across the first six months postpartum might relate to infant temperament profile membership at 12 months in 322 low-income Mexican American mother-infant dyads (46.3% male). Results revealed that maternal postnatal cortisol levels were significantly moderated by breastfeeding duration to predict infant temperament profile (β = 0.14, p = .030) such that more maternal cortisol was linked to higher likelihood of belonging to a high positive affect, well-regulated profile when mothers breastfed for above average durations. This suggests that while maternal cortisol in breastmilk might initially shape infant negative temperament, there may be a threshold at which the influence of cortisol is overridden by the benefits of extended breastfeeding duration
Investigating the Perceived Masculinity and Femininity of Nonbinary Individuals
No full textNonbinary individuals identify outside of the typical gender binary of men and women. Existing research has not investigated how nonbinary people are perceived in terms of masculinity and femininity. We hypothesized that nonbinary individuals would be perceived as less masculine than men and less feminine than women, while also being perceived as overall more feminine than masculine. Participants viewed a researcher-generated social media profile. The primary experimental manipulation involved varying the pronouns listed in the profile biography, denoting a man (he/him), woman (she/her), or nonbinary person (they/them). Participants rated how masculine and feminine they perceived the target person to be, in addition to how much they exhibited traits traditionally associated with men and women. Supporting two of our hypotheses, nonbinary individuals were perceived as less masculine than men and less feminine than women. Contrary to our third hypothesis, nonbinary individuals were perceived as equally masculine and feminine. This research contributes to the overall understanding as to how nonbinary people are evaluated and socially categorized, while also providing insight into how people who are not men are potentially demasculinized
NOLA 2150
No full textAbstract
Speculative fiction often takes a dystopic approach where authors envision what will be lost from books being banned in Fahrenheit 451 to us losing our civil liberties in 1984 to most of humanity being wiped out by an engineered virus in Oryx and Crake. This creative thesis takes a more optimistic approach by the act of preservation. In this case the city of New Orleans thriving as an underwater city protected by a glass dome in the year 2150. The city’s vibrant culture remains the same despite being almost too close to comfort to marine life. This work is influenced by fiction writers William S Burroughs and Franz Kafka as we follow a protagonist that enters the underwater city of New Orleans for the first time where he will immerse himself in this unexplained world where fish of all sizes swim in the sky. He will also experience the food, drink and music of New Orleans. Celebration in New Orleans has and always will be the forefront of the culture no matter how much the world changes
Gendered Images in Online Political Advertising Videostyles: A Case Study of 2024 Taiwan Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
No full textDespite the increasing visibility of female politicians in Taiwan, the resurgence of the #MeToo movement ahead of the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections underscores the enduring influence of patriarchal norms and gender stereotypes within Taiwanese society. Prior research in political communication has documented how gendered expectations shape voters’ perceptions of politicians’ appearances, behaviors, and perceived competence in addressing political issues. These expectations, in turn, inform how candidates strategically construct their public personas during electoral campaigns. This dissertation contributes to this body of scholarship by analyzing how Taiwanese political candidates perform gender through political advertising. Integrating the videostyle framework, gender schema theory, and gender performativity, the study examines both verbal and visual components—ranging from language and imagery to production techniques—as image-framing tools that construct candidate identities. Employing a mixed-methods design, the study extends the existing videostyle codebook to carry out a quantitative content analysis, while also conducting a qualitative content analysis to explore underexamined elements in political ad communication. Together, these methods offer a comprehensive understanding of how gender is strategically performed and represented in Taiwanese political discourse.
The analysis demonstrates the gendered labels attached to political issues, candidates’ personal traits, image-construction strategies, and production components are translated, reframed, and adapted within the Taiwanese context. Whereas prior research has primarily emphasized the challenges female politicians face in navigating through double binds and contradictory gendered expectations, some female candidates rearticulated traditional gendered scripts by embracing traditional gendered self-presentation and asserting political competence and authority simultaneously. Some strategically invoke the figure of the “powerful mother” to legitimize their leadership, while others foreground endorsements from authoritative figures to enhance credibility. Male candidates, while in different ways, also calibrate their public image in in nuanced ways. Even those presenting themselves as traditional leaders or protectors strategically highlight qualities of approachability and care, thereby softening dominant masculine portrayals and aligning with shifting gender norms in political communication. Theoretical, methodological, and practical contributions and limitations of the current dissertation are further discussed in this dissertation
The Impact of Screentime in Childhood
No full textThe increased dependency on technological devices as a result of the digital age being upon us impacts a multitude of individuals from all age groups. For older groups, they might find an easier time navigating the world wide web due to their awareness of the potential dangers these digital spaces may bring. On the other hand, younger age groups are more susceptible to the dangers posed due to their lack of maturity which in turn makes them extremely vulnerable to being negatively impacted when using these electronic devices. The goal of this project was to generate awareness concerning screen time in childhood. This writing piece enters into a discussion concerning the consequences posed when screen time is abused in childhood. As a supplement, a website was created in order to visualize, in user-friendly styled content, how parents can utilize screen time to be a helpful tool rather than a detrimental one