The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) Repository / 日本国際問題研究所リポジトリ

アルべサル　ティモテ

Japanese

欧州における対ロシア通常戦力抑止の「体力」と「頭脳」

Policy Brief
June 1, 2018
1
July 4, 25
Maritime Shipping is the Lifeblood of 
Japan’s Economy, but Its Complexity 
Carries Big Risks
Shino Watanabe
This article was first published on JAPAN Forward on May 15, 
2025.
When Donald Trump announced his desire to reassert American 
control over the Panama Canal, it left the world surprised and 
puzzled. What did the President want with the Central American 
waterway, which the United States handed over to Panama more than 
a quarter-century ago?
So much head-turning news has flowed from Washington since 
Trump’s Inauguration Day bombshell that it is easy to forget what 
happened next. The US government has not taken over the canal 
(at least not yet). But Trump’s statement did set in motion a major 
change for the crucial shipping route used by nearly 10,000 vessels in 
2024. 
CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based company, owns ports 
at the canal’s two entrances. The Port of Balboa is on the Atlantic 
Ocean, and the Port of Cristobal is on the Pacific. CK Hutchison 
agreed in March to sell its stakes to a consor tium led by the 
American asset management company BlackRock. One US national 
security analyst called the deal a “huge victory” in America’s strategic 
competition with China.
The episode should serve as a wake-up call for countries around 
the world. Among its lessons is that maritime transport is now a 
front-and-center issue in global geopolitics. America, Japan, and like-
minded partners such as Australia and India have been engaged in 
intensive discussions on how to strengthen their industrial supply 
chains. Yet most of the focus has been on the production and 
sourcing of strategic inputs, such as semiconductors and critical 
minerals. How those goods and others are moved from place to place 
has received less attention.
Dr.  S h i no  Wa t a na be  is  a 
P rofessor  i n  t he  Fac u l t y 
of  Globa l S t udies , Sophia 
University in Tokyo, Japan, 
and a former Research Fellow 
a t  t he  Ja pa n  I ns t i t ut e  o f 
International A f fairs ( JIIA). 
Her primary research interests 
include Chinese foreign policy, 
internat ional development 
finance, and the international 
relat ions of East Asia. She 
has publ ished extensively 
on China’s foreig n pol ic y 
a nd econom ic s t a tecra f t , 
w ith a par t icular focus on 
foreign a id, inter nat iona l 
development  f ina nce, t he 
Belt and Road Initiative, the 
Global Development Initiative, 
and China’s approach to the 
international order. 
Policy Brief
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July 4,2025
That should change. Maritime transpor t 
has immense significance for prosperity and 
security. Almost 90% of global trade is conducted 
through commercial shipping, and for some 
countries, the number is higher. In 2023, 
maritime shipping accounted for 99.6% of Japan’s 
total trade volume. 
The business of  marit ime shipping is 
immensely complicated, making regulation 
and monitoring dif ficult. Nationalities of the 
companies and people involved are wide-
ranging, and sometimes hard to pin down. 
Shipping firms typically don’t own their ships, 
at least not on paper. In most cases, they are 
merely charterers, renting vessels from foreign 
subsidiaries, af filiated companies, or other 
businesses. Moreover, the flag that a container 
ship flies rarely matches the nationality of its 
users or owners.
Japan is a prime example. According to the 
Japan Maritime Public Relations Center, in 2023, 
the Japanese merchant fleet consisted of 2,211 
vessels. Of those, only 311, or 14.1%, were Japan-
flagged. Half of the rest — more than 950 ships 
— were registered and flagged in Panama. 
Other popular flags included Liberia (10.5%), the 
Marshall Islands (6.4%), Singapore (4.3%), Hong 
Kong (3.4%), and the Bahamas (2.8%).
The international nature of ships’ crews 
adds to this complexity. Most of the Japanese 
merchant fleet is operated by non-Japanese 
seafarers. According to the Ministry of Land, 
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), 
as of May 2024, only 1.5% of crew members on 
Japanese ships were Japanese nationals. The 
rest were from the Philippines (68.9%), India 
(13.3%), Myanmar (4.2%), and other countries.
“ F l a g - o f - c o n v e n i e n c e ”  v e s s e l s  a n d 
international crews help shipping companies cut 
costs. But there are trade-offs. In emergencies 
such as a major natural disasters, ships that are 
owned, crewed, and registered by people and 
companies under local jurisdiction can become 
important assets. After the Fukushima nuclear 
accident in 2011, for example, 41 container 
ships operated by foreign shipping companies 
canceled planned port calls to Japan, according 
to MLIT. Container cargo could not be unloaded 
at Keihin Port near Tokyo for two months. The 
problem might have been mitigated if Japan had 
had access to more home-flagged ships subject 
to its own laws and regulations. 
Balance is impor tant, of course. In non-
peacetime emergencies — that is, wars — 
local shipping can be a liability. Commercial 
vessels that fly the flags of combatant countries 
can be subject to capture, blockade, and 
attack. “Neutral”-flagged shipping is critical 
to maintaining the flow of goods to countries 
involved in armed conflicts. 
At the same time, however, ship operators 
and crews may refuse to voyage to war-torn 
countries, especially if they have no family or 
citizenship connections there. It is therefore 
important to maintain a maritime workforce that 
is at least partly local and presumably willing to 
take more risks to keep the homeland supplied.
Avoiding conflicts should be top priority, 
needless to say. But if a conflict did break out, 
keeping maritime transport operating smoothly 
would be critical. That requires planning — 
ad hoc responses aren’t enough. Cooperation 
is especial ly needed in anticipation of  a 
potential contingency, including “gray zone” 
situations, a step removed from full-fledged 
wars. Government agencies, the military, law 
enforcement, and shipping companies should 
work together to identify the most appropriate 
responses and create plans to implement them 
quickly.  
As part of that planning, the government 
and shipping companies should consider the 
right balance between home-flagged ships, flag-
of-convenience ships, and chartered foreign 
vessels. More thorough information-gathering 
and analysis on crew composition, ships’ 
Policy Brief Policy Brief
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July 4,2025
locations during voyages, and the risks related 
to different countries of registration would be 
helpful, too.
Maritime shipping may be a commercial, 
private-sector business, but it is a business 
that can affect the fate of nations. It is time for 
policymakers to treat it that way.


English

Maritime Shipping is the Lifeblood of Japan’s Economy, but Its Complexity Carries Big Risks

柳淳

日本の国力としてのインテリジェンス強化

渡邉優

世界のチョークポイント・パナマ運河と米中対立

中川浩一

緊迫のイスラエル・イラン戦争と日本の中東外交

待鳥聡史

アメリカ政治の長期サイクルからトランプ政権を考える

Chie Sato

Dispute Settlement Pertaining to Law of the Sea Issues in the EU and Its Implications for Japan and/or Asia

小谷哲男

未来への回帰：日米同盟における指揮統制関係強化の意義

日本国際問題研究所

2024年度外交・安全保障調査研究事業費補助金 発展型総合事業「アジア・大洋州地域における安全保障上のリスクの実態」内 「朝鮮半島情勢とリスク研究会」「北朝鮮核・ミサイルリスク部会」政策提言

澤田克己

非常戒厳で深刻化した韓国の選挙不信

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