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Machine learning in peak demand forecasting: foundations, trends, and insights
Get PDFPeak demand forecasting involves predicting the maximum electricity demand within a specific period, which plays a key role in maintaining the efficiency and stability of power systems. The rapid evolution of power systems, driven by advanced metering infrastructure, local energy applications such as electric vehicles, and the increasing adoption of intermittent renewable energy, has introduced greater randomness and reduced predictability in peak demand. Given the pressing need to address more diverse implementation requirements across different contexts, accurate and reliable peak demand forecasting has become increasingly important. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to provide a comprehensive overview of peak demand forecasting methods. It systematically reviews 186 studies published since the 1950s, categorizing these methods into three stages based on their developmental timeline. Building on this, the study defines a unified framework for peak demand forecasting and offers an in-depth analysis linking these methods to the practical needs of power systems. Notably, it highlights the growing importance of machine learning-driven forecasting models in addressing the increasing complexity of modern energy environments. Furthermore, this study identifies key research gaps and points out emerging trends that hold potential for advancing innovation in this field
Task-Free Continual Generative Modelling Via Dynamic Teacher-Student Framework
Get PDFContinually learning and acquiring new concepts from a dynamically changing environment is an important requirement for an artificial intelligence system. However, most existing deep learning methods fail to achieve this goal and suffer from significant performance degeneration under continual learning. We propose a new unsupervised continual learning framework combining Long- and Short-Term Memory management used for training deep learning generative models. The former memory system uses a dynamic expansion model (Teacher), while the latter uses a fixed-capacity memory buffer to store the update-to-date information. A novel Teacher model expansion approach, called the Knowledge Incremental Assimilation Mechanism (KIAM) is proposed. KIAM evaluates the probabilistic distance between the already accumulated information and that contained in the Short Term Memory (STM). The proposed KIAM adaptively expands the Teacher's capacity and promotes knowledge diversity among the Teacher's experts. As Teacher experts, we consider generative deep learning models such as~: the Variational Autocencoder (VAE), the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) or the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM). We also extend the KIAM-based model to a Teacher-Student framework in which we use a data-free Knowledge Distillation (KD) process to train a VAE-based Student without using any task information. The results on Task Free Continual Learning (TFCL) benchmarks show that the proposed approach outperforms other models
Advancing Equity for People with Intellectual Disabilities:Closing the Neglected Cancer Policy Gap
No full textThe Method of Fundamental Solutions For Optical Fluorescence Tomography
No full textIn this paper, the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) is first developed for solving direct problems in bi-layer materials in the biomedical field of optical fluorescence. The governing system of second-order linear partial differential equations (PDEs) for the emission and excitation fluences is transformed into a single fourth-order PDE with appropriate boundary and interface matching conditions. The MFS is subsequently further developed, in conjunction with a constrained minimization regularization procedure, to solve nonlinear inverse optical fluorescence tomography problems. Numerical results confirm the accuracy, stability and versatility of the proposed meshless technique
Sexually transmitted infection testing and key outcomes following implementation of online postal self-sampling into sexual health services in England: a retrospective observational study of routinely collected service-level healthcare data
Get PDFBackground
A shift to online postal self-sampling (OPSS) for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in high-income settings has occurred. We evaluate whether introduction of OPSS in England is associated with changes in testing activity and if this differs by population characteristics.
Methods
A retrospective study of sexual health (online and clinic-based) service-level data, across three case study areas (CSAs) that implemented OPSS at different times, using different models, and whose populations have different socio-demographic profiles, between 01/01/2015 and 31/12/2022 (from 01/08/2014 in CSA1 to ensure 12 months pre-OPSS). The primary outcome was chlamydia/gonorrhoea and HIV testing activity. We evaluated change over time using selected calendar years, with total activity following introduction of OPSS (2019 and 2022) compared to pre-OPSS periods (CSA1, 2014–2015, CSA2 2017, CSA3 2019), and whether outcome changes differed by socio-demographic characteristics.
Findings
In all CSAs chlamydia/gonorrhoea and HIV testing activity increased following introduction of OPSS with incidence rate ratios (IRR) for chlamydia/gonorrhoea testing in 2022 compared to pre-OPSS baseline ranging from 2.1 (95% CI 2.1–2.2) in CSA1 to 2.5 (95% CI 2.4–2.5) in CSA3, and for HIV testing from 1.5 (95% CI 1.5–1.5) in CSA1 to 2.8 (95% CI 2.8–2.8) in CSA2. Differences existed across all demographic characteristics in the relative change in testing incidence (all P < 0.0001 for chlamydia/gonorrhoea). Higher testing activity via OPSS was seen among men who have sex with men (MSM), particularly in CSAs1-2 for chlamydia/gonorrhoea (IRR2.9 (95% CI 2.8–3.1) and 3.6 (95% CI 3.5–3.7) in MSM compared to 1.7 (95% CI 1.7–1.8)and 1.8 (95% CI 1.8–1.8) in men who have sex exclusively with women (MSEW) for 2022 vs pre-OPSS). In CSA3, the largest relative increase occurred in women (IRR 3.2 (95% CI 3.1–3.3), compared to IRR 1.9 (95% CI 1.8–1.9) in MSEW). The most deprived areas had the lowest relative increase in chlamydia/gonorrhoea testing uptake (1.9–2.1 for CSA1-3).
Interpretation
Despite a reduction in clinic-based testing linked to COVID-19, the introduction of OPSS has been associated with increases in overall testing activity. OPSS uptake was lower among populations with greater potential for unmet need, such as individuals living in more deprived areas. Although OPSS is available to all people living within the commissioned areas, in practice not all individuals with a need for STI testing are aware of it or have the confidence and ability to access it. Differences across all socio-demographic characteristics in the relative change in testing could inadvertently increase existing inequalities in access to care and it is important to offer choice of mode of testing for service users.
Funding
National Institute for Health and Care Research
How is musical expertise related to executive functions? A systematic review and meta-analysis
No full textA person’s lifetime involvement with musical expertise has been hypothesized to be positively associated with executive functions, including inhibition, shifting, and working memory. However, results of past research have been inconclusive. This preregistered systematic review and three-level meta-analysis of 47 studies encompassing 235 effect sizes from 4,651 healthy adult participants investigated how strongly musical expertise relates to each of the three executive functions. The results showed significant medium associations between musical expertise and executive functions (g = 0.43), with small to medium associations between musical expertise and each of the functions: inhibition (g = 0.31), shifting (g = 0.22), and working memory (g = 0.49). Risk of bias moderated the relationship between musical expertise and inhibition, and the paradigm used to assess executive functions moderated the association between musical expertise and working memory. The results suggest that individuals who engage in musical activities have higher levels of executive function, with a particularly critical role of working memory in musical expertise. The literature review further identified several methodological issues, including predominant reliance on dichotomizing continuous variables and the use of small samples yielding low statistical power. The review offers methodological recommendations and directions for further investigating the relationship between working memory and musical expertise
Effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for adults with substance use disorder that have a co‐occurring common mental health disorder: an umbrella review
Get PDFIssues
People with substance use disorders can have co-occurring mental disorders.
Approach
An umbrella review was conducted to identify evidence of the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for adults (aged 18+) with substance use disorders and co-occurring common mental health disorders. Systematic reviews were sought of randomised controlled trials of psychosocial interventions compared to each other, treatment as usual or wait-list. Five databases were systematically searched in February 2024. Data, including critical appraisal (Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist), were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Data were discussed in a narrative review.
Key Findings
Of 5420 unique records, 28 systematic reviews were included. The methodological quality of the reviews was good. Most reviews focused on depression, anxiety or post-traumatic stress disorder. There was much heterogeneity between reviews, and randomised controlled trials within reviews. Most of the interventions and many of the treatment-as-usual comparators resulted in significant improvement in substance use and mental health disorders. Results suggested integrated (co-ordinated) treatment for co-occurring diagnosis patients was better than treating one condition alone, and usually better than parallel uncoordinated services. There was limited evidence assessing sequential treatment, but this suggested similar effectiveness to integrated treatment.
Implications
Implications for current practise could not be recommended due to heterogeneity. Improvement shown by all types of psychosocial intervention including active comparators precluded recommending one type of intervention over another.
Conclusion
Further research is needed comparing integrated with parallel or sequential treatment, with follow-up of 6 months or longer, and sample size large enough to encompass dropout
Crossing scales and eras: Correlative multimodal microscopy heritage studies
Get PDFThe comprehensive characterisation of complex, irreplaceable cultural heritage artefacts presents significant challenges for traditional analytical methods, which can fall short in providing multi-scale, non-invasive analysis. Correlative Multimodal Microscopy (CoMic), an approach that integrates data from multiple techniques, offers a powerful solution by bridging structural, chemical, and topographical information across different length scales. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the evolution, current applications, and future trajectory of CoMic within the field of heritage science. We present a historical overview of microscopy in heritage studies and detail the principles and advances of key techniques, such as electron, X-ray, optical, and probe microscopies. This review presents practical applications through case studies on materials that include wood, pigments, ceramics, metals, and textiles. To aid CoMic uptake, we also provide user-centric guides for researchers with diverse expertise. This review also examines the challenges that currently limit the widespread adoption of CoMic, challenges that include sample preparation, data correlation accuracy, high instrumental and resource costs, and the need for specialised interdisciplinary expertise. Although CoMic is a transformative methodology for artefact analysis and conservation, its full potential will be realised through future developments in accessible instrumentation, standardised protocols, and the integration of AI-driven data analysis. This review serves as a critical resource and roadmap for researchers, conservators, and institutions looking to harness the power of correlative microscopy to preserve our shared cultural legacy
Quantum-enabled optical large-baseline interferometry: applications, protocols and feasibility
Get PDFOptical Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) offers the potential for unprecedented angular resolution in both astronomical imaging and geodesy measurements. Classical approaches face limitations due to photon loss, background noise, and their need for dynamical delay lines over large distances. This review surveys recent developments in quantum-enabled optical VLBI that address these challenges using entanglement-assisted protocols, quantum memory storage, and nonlocal measurement techniques. While its application to astronomy is well known, we also examine how these techniques may be extended to geodesy–specifically, the monitoring of Earth’s rotation. Particular attention is given to quantum-enhanced telescope architectures, including repeater-based long-baseline interferometry and quantum error-corrected encoding schemes, which offer a pathway toward high-fidelity optical VLBI. To aid the discussion, we also compare specifications for key enabling technologies to current state-of-the-art experimental components. By integrating quantum technologies, future interferometric networks may achieve diffraction-limited imaging at optical and near-infrared wavelengths, surpassing the constraints of classical techniques and enabling new precision tests of astrophysical and fundamental physics phenomena
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