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Forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty
Get PDFThe development of the agent-based modelling prototype is led by the Department of Computer Science, Brunel University of London. The forecasts in this report were made using the SEAVEA toolkit and the ARCHER2 supercomputer at EPCC in Edinburgh, UK.UNHCR Policy Brief available online at: https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/117421 .Despite the ongoing war, the Government of Ukraine and its international partners are dedicating increasing focus on national recovery—and the policies, reforms and investments needed to rebuild. Forced displacement is massive, with nearly a quarter of the pre-war population having fled their homes, including some 5.6 million refugees and more than 3.7 million internally displaced. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the scope of return — including the socio-economic characteristics of who is likely to return, under what conditions, to which parts of the country, and the subsequent programmes, services and support required to ensure sustainability of returns — is critical to ensuring an equitable recovery that leaves no one behind. Building on successive rounds of intentions surveys undertaken among the Ukrainian refugee population in European host states, UNHCR partnered with Brunel University of London to develop an innovative agentbased modelling prototype to forecast potential returns under five different hypothetical scenarios. Guided by an informal advisory group of technical experts from international financial institutions, regional institutions and development actors, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy and the Kyiv School of Economics, the model provides key insights into a range of factors that will likely influence future return trends and subsequent recovery needs in different oblasts across Ukraine, in accordance with five plausible future scenarios. The results outlined in this brief are simulated based on a scenario of ‘fragile peace’ with concessions. The prototype can produce simulations relating to five different, defined scenarios, simulating variations in expected return trends.United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees grant ref:
RBE_001_2025: Fine-Tuning the Ukraine Energy-driven Displacement Prototype
Characterisation of deposits formed from urea-water-solution droplets under high temperature engine environment
No full textData availability:
Data will be made available on request.The challenge of NOx emissions from diesel engines necessitates the development of cleaner and more efficient combustion processes, along with advanced emission control strategies. The use of Urea-Water Solution (UWS) in Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) is the state-of-the-art NOx emission control strategy; however, it also leads to unwanted deposit formation, which can affect system performance. To understand the deposit formation process, optical analysis reveals that at temperatures below 400 °C, rapid water evaporation localizes urea at the droplet core, ultimately resulting in solid crystal deposition. At higher temperatures, accelerated urea dissolution prevents crystallization due to insufficient time for supersaturation. This study further investigates the mechanisms of UWS droplet breakup, nucleation, phase transitions, and the physical characteristics of the resulting deposits. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) of UWS indicates that water evaporates between 20 and 100 °C, while urea degrades between 120 and 230 °C, leading to a total weight loss of 98.33 % by 400 °C, leaving a 1.67 % residue. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of the UWS residue reveal a densely packed, crystal-like structure. Additionally, X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of the deposits at 400 °C shows a crystallinity of 70 % and an amorphous content of 30 %, indicating that even at high temperatures, a portion of the material remains non-crystalline due to rapid thermal decomposition and evaporation dynamics. Mixing urea directly with fuel, leading to the development of a ternary blend of UWS, Oxymethylene Ether (OME1), and methanol enhances droplet atomization and breakup, promoting the formation of secondary droplets and reducing residual crystallization. However, higher concentrations of UWS can inhibit droplet breakup and increase evaporation, resulting in a higher propensity for deposit formation. Overall, this study highlight that formation of deposits remains a critical challenge.The author acknowledges Brunel University London for the 2022 research position that facilitated this study
The Conflict between Regulatory Agencies over the 20,000-Fold Lowering of the Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) for Bisphenol A (BPA) by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)
Get PDFCommentary article.The DOI may not resolve as the content was taken down at https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/ on 1 December, 2025. The article is maintained at PubMed Central at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38592230/ and at Europe PubMed Central at https://europepmc.org/article/pmc/11003459 .Background: The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommended lowering their estimated tolerable daily intake (TDI) for bisphenol A (BPA) 20,000-fold to 0.2 ng / kg body weight (BW) / day. BPA is an extensively studied high production volume endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) associated with a vast array of diseases. Prior risk assessments of BPA by EFSA as well as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have relied on industry-funded studies conducted under good laboratory practice protocols (GLP) requiring guideline end points and detailed record keeping, while also claiming to examine (but rejecting) thousands of published findings by academic scientists. Guideline protocols initially formalized in the mid-twentieth century are still used by many regulatory agencies. EFSA used a 21st century approach in its reassessment of BPA and conducted a transparent, but time-limited, systematic review that included both guideline and academic research. The German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) opposed EFSA's revision of the TDI for BPA.
Objectives: We identify the flaws in the assumptions that the German BfR, as well as the FDA, have used to justify maintaining the TDI for BPA at levels above what a vast amount of academic research shows to cause harm. We argue that regulatory agencies need to incorporate 21st century science into chemical hazard identifications using the CLARITY-BPA (Consortium Linking Academic and Regulatory Insights on BPA Toxicity) nonguideline academic studies in a collaborative government-academic program model.
Discussion: We strongly endorse EFSA's revised TDI for BPA and support the European Commission's (EC) apparent acceptance of this updated BPA risk assessment. We discuss challenges to current chemical risk assessment assumptions about EDCs that need to be addressed by regulatory agencies to, in our opinion, become truly protective of public health. Addressing these challenges will hopefully result in BPA, and eventually other structurally similar bisphenols (called regrettable substitutions) for which there are known adverse effects, being eliminated from all food-related and many other uses in the EU and elsewhere.NIEHS NIH HHS (3): Grant ID: P30 ES017885; Grant ID: R01 ES032452; Grant ID: R21 ES027123
Developing a quality assessment tool for the Ghanaian construction industry
Get PDFThis thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonGlobally, there has been an increasing interest and demand in the adoption and
implementation of quality management systems in the construction industry, as they provide
heightened effectiveness and efficacy for client satisfaction. However, in Ghana, collapses of
newly built and on-going building projects have become common place, much of which have
been attributed to poor quality works. This situation is engendered by numerous challenges
facing the Ghanaian construction industry (GCI), notable of which are lack of appropriate
quality standards, resource constraints, and a dynamic regulatory landscape. These
underscore the importance of developing a tailored quality management model for the
Ghanaian construction setting, which currently has nothing of this sort, as evidenced by the
literature. Instigated by this gap, a research study was undertaken to develop a quality
management assessment tool (in the form of a maturity model) for improving quality
management practices among construction organisations in the GCI.
This research employed a mixed research method by triangulating data obtained through
various techniques, namely literature review, questionnaire survey and semi-structured
interviews. A pilot study was carried out to evaluate the validity of the questionnaires, which
contributed to enhancing the research design and its overall quality. Following the
development of a conceptual framework that established the key quality management criteria
and standard requirements, relevant primary data was gathered from construction
organisations of the GCI and analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical analysis,
including Independent sample T-Test, Binary logistic regression, Spearman’s correlation and
factor analysis. The factor analysis was used to extract components required for the
development of the Quality Management Maturity Model (QMMM). Moreso, based on the
results and the conceptual model, the structure of the proposed QMMM was designed, which
was then validated using feedback acquired from industry experts from the GCI to ascertain
the model’s usefulness and suitability.
Research findings indicated that the three most significant factors contributing to the
successful implementation of QMS are top management commitment, client satisfaction, and
the application of legislative instruments. In contrast, the two main challenges affecting the
implementation process were found to be inadequate training and education from top
management, as well as the belief that engaging in QMS practices is both time-intensive and
costly.
The model consists of various structural components, maturity levels and scores, a maturity
flowchart and an evaluation sheet. QMMM enables identifying areas of improvement for quality
management practices in the GCI. A key contribution to knowledge of this research includes the new QMMM developed for the
GCI, which is innovative and has the potential of improving quality management practice and
standards. Additionally, QMMM can be used by industrial professionals and the wider
international community through the adoption of the steps developed for its applicability as
indicated in Chapter 6.4.3. Using the QMMM will help organisations to be quality conscious to
help engender or bring about a change in the culture, as far as quality management is
concerned in order to avoid project collapse. Another contribution lies in the fact that the study
findings can foster a more robust academic discourse and encourage a collaborative effort
among scholars to investigate the use of maturity models in diverse organisations
Temporal characteristics of foot rollover of amputee walking gait when using an Energy Storage and Return prosthesis
Get PDFBackground:
Energy Storage and Return (ESAR) prosthetic feet provide improved walking when compared with previous designs. However, it may not mimic the unimpaired smooth and progressive movement of the foot on the floor (foot rollover).
Objective:
To characterize the temporal foot rollover of participants with unilateral transtibial amputation using an ESAR prosthetic foot.
Study design:
Cross-sectional.
Methods:
Plantar pressure data were collected from 11 participants with unilateral transtibial amputation using ESAR prostheses (2 females, mean age 37 ± 10 years, activity levels K2-K4) and 9 unimpaired participants (3 females, mean age 33 ± 10 years). The Initial Contact, Final Contact, and Total Contact times of 7 areas of the feet (unimpaired, intact, and prosthetic feet) were studied together with the duration of the Heel Rocker, Ankle Rocker, and Forefoot Rocker. Results were compared using a mixed analysis of the variance test.
Results:
Statistical analysis revealed an interaction (P < 0.05) between foot and areas. The contact times were different (P < 0.05) between unimpaired and prosthetic feet for most foot areas. Furthermore, the prosthetic foot showed the longest duration of Heel Rocker (21.1 ± 8.5% of stance phase vs. 17.7 ± 10.2% for the intact foot and 15.7 ± 8.8% for the unimpaired feet, P < 0.05) and the shortest duration of Ankle Rocker (43.8 ± 18.1% vs. 47.2 ± 16.9% for the intact foot and 50.0 ± 13.4% for the unimpaired feet, P < 0.05).
Conclusions:
Results suggest that the ESAR foot does not mimic the unimpaired foot rollover, especially in the contact pattern and the heel and ankle rockers. This might have an impact on efficiency and stability of gait.This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors
International Law and the Reconceptualization of Territorial Boundaries: In Pursuit of Perpetual Peace
No full textThis book critically analyzes the state-based regime of international law, eliciting its colonial and decolonial origins and proposing a new sub-regional basis for dealing with contemporary global challenges. Since 1648, public international law has taken many steps to maintain peace and establish a just order. The State is deemed central to each of these efforts. Yet modern challenges, such as environmental mitigation, mass migration, and the need to stimulate economic growth, overwhelm the State. Could a regional approach to these questions, achieved in conjunction with strong sub-national local governance, establish a more effective framework for systemic change? Drawing on a history of colonization and decolonization, while scrutinizing decisions made about the imposition of the State on the basis of colonial boundaries, this multidisciplinary work analyses why current challenges are unlikely to be adequately addressed through existing governance structures. In response, it advocates for a sub-regional, transnational approach, drawing on analyses of pre-colonial shared histories and contemporary population ethnographies unfettered by hegemonic boundary drawing. The book argues that collaboration across such frontiers in the face of climate and other challenges may offer more feasible approaches to the pursuit of peace than the unquestioned maintenance of state-based structures of inherited privilege. This book will appeal to scholars and others with interests in international law, international relations, and international politics, as well as in the history and politics of colonialism
Do individuals with ankle instability show altered lower extremity kinematics and kinetics during walking? A systematic review and meta-analysis
Get PDFSupplementary material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031940624004292#sec0110 .Objective:
To determine if individuals with chronic ankle instability (CAI) demonstrate altered lower extremity kinematics and kinetics during walking.
Data sources:
Relevant studies were sourced from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EBSCO and PEDro.
Study selection:
Kinematic and kinetic studies involving joint angle and/or joint moment measured in individuals with CAI were included.
Study appraisal and synthesis methods:
The Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool was used to assess literature quality. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) in joint angles and moments between CAI and controls were analyzed as continuous variables.
Results:
1261 articles were screened, with a final selection of 13 studies involving 729 participants. Compared to non-CAI controls, CAI participants showed significantly greater ankle inversion angle (degree) (WMD: 3.71, 95% CI: 3.15 to 4.27, p < 0.001), hip adduction angle (degree) (WMD: 1.60, 95% CI: 0.09 to 3.11, p = 0.04), and knee valgus moment (N m/kg) (WMD: 0.07, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.13, p = 0.02) during walking. Additionally, there were no consistent findings or specific altered patterns in other lower extremity joint angles, or moment changes, regardless of the motion plane (sagittal, coronal, horizontal), for CAI compared with controls.
Conclusions:
This review provides further evidence of altered lower limb kinematics and kinetics in the frontal plane in CAI participants during certain walking phases, which may partially explain the high level of recurrent ankle sprains observed in the CAI population, and support hip abduction and ankle eversion motor control exercises for CAI rehabilitation.
Systematic Review Registration Number:
Systematic Review Registration Number PROSPERO CRD42023420418.We acknowledge the support received from the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality, China (Grant no. 20XD1423200)
Estimating Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Common Factors in Stata
Get PDFArticle: Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY)
Software: GPL General Public License version 2 or version 3 or a GPL-compatible license.This article introduces the spxtivdfreg package in Stata, which implements a general instrumental variables (IV) approach for estimating dynamic spatial panel data models with unobserved common factors or interactive effects, when the number of both cross-sectional and time series observations is large. The estimator has been developed in a recent paper by Cui, Sarafidis, and Yamagata (2023). The underlying idea is to project out the common factors from exogenous covariates using principal components analysis, and to run IV regression in both of two stages, using defactored covariates (and their spatial counterparts) as instruments. The resulting two-stage IV estimator is valid for models with homogeneous slope coefficients, and has several advantages relative to existing popular approaches. In addition, the spxtivdfreg package allows estimation of short-run and long-run direct and indirect effects, as well as total effects, accounting for the cumulative effects over time and across space. Standard errors for such effects are computed using the Delta method. Last, the spxtivdfreg package allows for heterogeneous slope coefficients, as in Chen, Cui, Sarafidis, and Yamagata (2025). In particular, we construct a "mean group" IV estimator, which involves averaging first-step IV estimates of individual-specific slope coefficients.Vasilis Sarafidis gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Australian Research Council under research grant number DP-170103135
Barriers and facilitators to learning and using first aid skills for road traffic crash victims in Nepal: a qualitative study
Get PDFData-sharing statement:
The anonymised data for the study is available from the corresponding author on request.Background:
Road traffic injuries are a major global public health problem despite being avoidable and preventable. In many low- and middle-income countries, the victims of road traffic crashes do not receive care at the scene and may die before reaching hospital. In low- and middle-income countries where prehospital emergency medical services are not well established, bystanders have the potential to save lives by providing first aid. Nepal has rising rates of road traffic injuries and emergency medical services are early in development. There is limited evidence on the factors that influence people in Nepal to become trained in first aid and to use their first aid skills.
Objectives:
To understand the barriers and facilitators to learning first aid and to applying those skills to help road traffic crash victims in Nepal.
Design:
Qualitative study using semistructured interviews.
Setting:
Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Kaski and Makwanpur districts in Nepal.
Participants:
We interviewed three groups of participants: (1) members of the public who had never been trained in first aid, (2) members of the public who had been trained in first aid and (3) first aid trainers.
Data sources:
Interviews explored reasons why people may be interested in being trained and factors that would inhibit being trained or applying their first aid skills. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English and analysed thematically.
Results:
Respect from the public, a desire to help those in need and confidence to apply skills were important factors in encouraging people to learn and apply first aid. Barriers included lack of time and financial implications of providing first aid. The fear of social and legal consequences if the patient had a poor outcome, a lack of confidence to apply skills and lack of trust shown to first aiders by some members of the community discouraged learning and using first aid skills.
Limitations:
Participants were mostly from urban and semiurban areas. People with more difficult access to health care may have held different views. People who were untrained in first aid and agreed to participate may hold different views to those who were not recruited, as they had interest in the topic.
Conclusions:
Members of the public can be encouraged to learn and apply first aid skills to help road traffic crash victims, but there are multiple barriers to engagement in first aid. Providing legal protection from prosecution for first aiders, raising public awareness of the value of first aid, addressing financial constraints and provision of refresher training may address these barriers.
Future work:
Research to address the barriers to the creation of a Good Samaritan law appears warranted. The perspectives of other groups often involved in the care and/or transport of road traffic crash victims, such as taxi drivers, would add to our understanding of factors affecting the application of first aid. The gendered stereotypes reported by female first aiders warrant further exploration.
Funding:
This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Global Health Research programme as award number 16/137/49.This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Global Health Research programme as award number 16/137/49 using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK government. Research is published in the NIHR Global Health Research Journal. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. This article reports on one component of the research award Barriers and facilitators to learning and using first aid skills for road traffic crash victims in Nepal: a qualitative study. For more information about this research please view the award page (https://www.fundingawards.nihr.ac.uk/award/16/137/49
War as Peace, Peace as Pacification
Get PDFChallenging the established consensus around the notions of "peace" and "war," the author prompts inquiries into established knowledge, such as the assumptions of modern political theory, and the persistence of temporalities like the colonial period, through the reiterated pattern of contact between Europeans and "other" peoples. The meanings of the terms "peace" and "war" are examined, recognizing the presence in international law of the use of war to produce peace and security, presuming recourse to expropriation and the expedient of violence against these groups. "Pacification," therefore, reveals the conditions under which peace is established for market conditions, guaranteed in the figure of a constant enemy, activated as a code for the permanent pacification demanded in contemporary politics, which reveals security as the "supreme concept of bourgeois society."Resumo:
Tomando o consenso estabelecido em torno da ideia de “paz e “guerra”, o autor provoca questionamentos aos saberes constituídos, a exemplo dos pressupostos da teoria política moderna, e a permanência de temporalidades como o período colonial, a partir do padrão reiterado de contato entre europeus e “outros” povos. São examinados os sentidos dos termos “paz” e “guerra”, reconhecendo estar presente no direito das nações o uso da guerra para a produção da paz e da segurança, com presunção do recurso à expropriação e o expediente da violência a esses grupos. A “pacificação”, assim, revela as condições em que a paz é estabelecida para as condições de mercado, garantido na figura de um constante inimigo, acionado como código para a pacificação permanente exigida na política contemporânea, o que revela a segurança como “conceito supremo da sociedade burguesa”
Data sources:
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