Journals of UMT (University of Management and Technology, Lahore)
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Nonlinear Spillovers from Stock, Gold, Oil, and T-bill Volatilities to Predict Economic Policy Uncertainties
Full text linkEconomic policy uncertainity (EPU) shapes the economic development of a country and any instability in policy results in financial markets downturn. Several elements are considered as predictors of EPU. Of these, commodities (oil, gold) are the most common. This study consider financial markets with four major asset classes gold, crude oil, 10-year treasury bonds, and stock prices to examine a nonlinear and asymmetric spillover that influences EPU. The dataset comprises oil price volatility, gold price volatility, T-bills volatility, stock price volatility, and the EPU index of eight countries. NARDL model is used to capture the impact of the nonlinear behavior of uncertainties on gold, oil, T-Bills, and stock market volatilities. It captures both long-run and short-run non-linearities by separating explanatory variables into partially positive and partially negative components. The outcomes reveal positive and negative shocks to oil price volatility, gold price volatility, T-Bills volatility, and stock price volatility which positively affect the EPU of all countries. However, Canada does not bear any effect of negative shocks in the short-run to gold price and oil price volatilities to predict the EPU. USA shows the negative impact of negative shocks for all asset classes. T-Bills derived negative shocks adversely affect China at 5% level of significance. Furthermore, the effect of positive shocks is more pronounced than negative shocks. The outcomes support the short-run and long-run asymmetric impact of oil, gold, T-Bills, and VIX volatilities to predict EPU. This study helps investment funds in managing risk, asset pricing, and formulating economic policy differentiated to positive and negative shocks
Examining the Influence of Cultural and Societal Factors on Networking and Socializing Challenges: A Study of Female Entrepreneurs in Pakistan
Full text linkThe current research explores the experiences of female entrepreneurs in Pakistan, offering a detailed exploration of their networking and socializing efforts, the motivational factors driving their ventures, and the unique challenges they face throughout their entrepreneurial journeys. Qualitative data was gathered through semi-structured interviews of 25 female entrepreneurs from diverse sectors. Thematic analysis was performed via NVivo14, which revealed the pervasive obstacles encountered, including deeply ingrained societal norms, gender biases, and limited access to established business networks. The findings revealed how traditional cultural expectations, including rigid gender roles and expectations of modesty, impede women's active participation in networking opportunities, further marginalizing them in business circles. This research also uncovers the innovative strategies female entrepreneurs use to navigate through these challenges, including utilization of online platforms as an alternative to in-person networking. The research also highlights the significance of fostering supportive networking environment for women to ensure professional growth. It provides a contextualized understanding of how societal pressure shapes the experience of female entrepreneurs in Pakistan, while drawing parallels with similar challenges faced by women in the world which adds to the broader literature on gender and entrepreneurship. The study offers actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. These insights are essential for creating an inclusive entrepreneurial environment for female entrepreneurs to help them flourish and contribute towards the economic growth and gender equality objectives of the country. 
SPILL-OVER IN MEAN AND VOLATILITY FROM BITCOIN TO OTHER CRYPTO-CURRENCIES
Full text linkWorldwide interest in cryptocurrencies has grown significantly. Understanding the nature of cryptocurrency volatility is becoming increasingly important. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the spillover in mean and volatility from Bitcoin (BTC) to other cryptocurrencies. Seven cryptocurrencies for the time period (2017-2023) were used in the study and they were chosen based on market capitalization. The ARMA (1,1) GARCH (1,1)-M model was utilized to measure the spillover in volatility and mean from BTC to other cryptocurrencies. According to the findings, there exists mean spillover from BTC to other digital currencies except one, that is, Tether. However, spillover in volatility exists from BTC to other cryptocurrencies. The studyprovided guidance to investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers to allocate assets anddiversify their risks
Impact of Internal and Macroeconomic Risks on Financial Performance, Growth, and Stability of Domestic and Foreign Banks in Pakistan
Full text linkThe current study aims to scrutinize and compare the effects of internal and macroeconomic risks taken by foreign and domestic banks in Pakistan on their financial performance, growth, and stability. It also compares the substantial impact of both types of risks between foreign and domestic (both Islamic and conventional) banks. Internal risks include liquidity risk, operational risk, credit risk, and capital risk, whereas macroeconomic risks include exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and inflation rate risk. Using a two-step system GMM with the collapse command, a sample of commercial banks including both Islamic and conventional banks was analyzed over the period 2008-2020. Based on the results, it was determined that both types of banks experience negative exposure to both macroeconomic and internal risks, affecting their financial performance, growth, and stability. However, the impact of both categories of risks was found to be more substantial in the case of domestic banks. Moreover, the results also hold true for both Islamic and conventional banks. The findings recommend that both domestic and foreign Islamic banks are more competent in the practices of risk management, as compared to domestic and foreign conventional banks. The current study has implications for investors, bank management, policymakers, and regulators. In particular, domestic conventional banks should prioritize to enhance their cost management, granting and monitoring of credit, and risk diversification, as well as upgrading their human and technological capital
Assessment of Government Intervention in Microfinance Banks of Pakistan
Full text linkThis paper presents a panel data study of microfinance banks in Pakistan. The data includes a random sample of financial statements from 8 microfinance banks over the period from 2011-2015, totaling 40 firm year observations. The study aims to evaluate the effect of government interventions on these microfinance banks and brings up a statistically critical assessment of various government policies applied to the sector. To quantify the effects of government intervention, panel data analysis is conducted. For a better selection of model, the Hausman’s specification test is employed. The random effect model was found suitable for analysis. Using statistical tools, this paper investigates the causal effect of government regulations, government grants, market size, and governmental audits on the profit ratios of microfinance institutes. This is one of the few studies that investigates the impacts of the small and medium sized government policies on microfinance bank from inception of these policies. By analyzing the period during which these policies were first implemented, the study provides a clear and direct picture of the relationship between governmental policy and SME entities. Taking a snapshot of the impacts in the beginning provides undiluted results that are not confounded by other environmental and regulatory effects. The results show that most of the variables used in the study, such as market size and number of audits are significantly related, while government grants have an insignificant relationship with the performance of microfinance banks. The study makes a significant contribution by demonstrating that government policies and grants have limited impact on SME performance and should be reevaluated, while they should rely more on audits
Gender Dynamics within the Tech-Industry and Financial Services and the Resultant Effects on Gender Inequality
Full text linkDue to the widespread adoption of digital technology, the labor market is undergoing a paradigm shift, resulting in its reorganization in terms of employment opportunities. On the other hand, financial development is also affecting the livelihood of individuals. This shift towards a tech-based economy and financial access is also affecting the opportunities available to females. For gender-based inequalities to be fully addressed, it is crucial to comprehend how the digital divide and financial access affect and shape the lives of women. The current study used panel data for 22 developing countries in Asia spanning the time period 2010-2022. Panel ARDL was used and the Hausman test showed that Pooled Mean Group (PMG) is appropriate. The findings showed that female access to credit significantly affects gender inequality in both the short-and long-run. While, women's participation in tech-related jobs affects gender inequality in the long-run only. The current study also suggested policies to reduce gender inequality in the developing economies
Emerging Pathways of Green Financing and its Role in Inducing Sustainable Development in Pakistan
Full text linkThis study explores the evolving landscape of green financing and its significance in driving sustainable development in Pakistan. It adopts a comprehensive approach, drawing insights from secondary data sources such as annual reports of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the finance ministry website, annual budgets of Pakistan, and other relevant literature. The pivotal role of green financing in mitigating environmental challenges is highlighted, enhancing business resilience and promoting ecological preservation. Moreover, the timeline of green financing developments, policy initiatives, and allocating budget resources for environmentally friendly projects is examined. The study underscores the potential of green financing in achieving climate targets, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and supporting various sectors such as renewable energy, waste management, and sustainable industries. Ultimately, the focus remains on the critical role of green financing in Pakistan's sustainable development journey
Enhancing University Students' Career Orientation Through Personal Growth Tools: The Moderating Role of Career Self-Management
Full text linkGaining self-awareness can be accomplished through practicing personal growth tools. This study highlights how career self-management moderates the impact of coping strategies, mindfulness, and self-regulation on students facing challenges. Furthermore, the study contributes to an expanding body of research on how the university students in Lahore, Pakistan, relate mindfulness, coping mechanisms, and self-regulation to their career orientation. With a sample size of 384 students, the survey data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), employing descriptive analysis, Cronbach's Alpha, response rates, and response profiles. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was also used for hypothesis testing. The findings of this study reveal that effective coping strategies, when moderated by career self-management, significantly influence career orientation. Students who adeptly manage challenges are more likely to overcome failures and remain optimistic about their career future. Furthermore, it suggests that enhancing coping abilities can improve the student goal adjustment skills when facing future challenges. To align their effects and drive themselves towards realistic goal coping strategies is essential for building a successful career orientation. Additionally, these developmental strategies are recommended to the universities because by considering factors such as mindfulness, coping strategies and self-regulation, policy makers can design more effective interventions
Impact of Free Cash Flow (FCF) on Firm Performance: Evidence from Pakistan
Full text linkAccording to free cash flow (FCF) theory, there is a negative correlation between a manager's restriction of FCF and company performance. It suggests that dividend payouts and debt financing tend to decrease the FCF, resulting in enhanced company performance. To examine this hypothesis, a study was conducted in Pakistan that focused on non-financial companies listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange PSX. The research employed stratified sampling technique by selecting 28 companies. Data was collected from the time period 2013-2017. The data obtained from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and financial statements from company websites served as primary sources. The study considered variables, that is, FCF, dividend per share, leverage (LEV) (as independent variables), return on assets (ROA) (as the dependent variable), and capital liquidity along with firm size (as control variables). Panel regression analysis utilizing EViews was used for data analysis. Findings showed that both FCF and dividend payouts have a significant and positive impact on firm performance, while LEV does not exert a significant effect. Moreover, firm size was identified as having a significant negative impact on firm performance. The outcomes of the current study hold potential value for both foreign and local investors as well as for companies aiming to establish robust dividend policies
Foreign Aid and Economic Development: The Case of Pakistan
Full text linkForeign aid plays an important role in the development of developing countries. However, loans and grants can have opposite impacts. This study evaluates the role of foreign aid on the development of Pakistan. The Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ARDL) is used for the empirical analysis. The results depicted that foreign aid has adverse effect on the development of Pakistan both in short run and long run. It is alsofound that in the short run the role of IMF is positive but insignificant. However, in the long run the role of IMF is positive and significant at 10% level for the economic development of the country. The research also proposes few alternative policy measures in order to minimize the dependency on the foreign economic assistance and encourages reliance on the internal resource generation.