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Implication of Credit Supervision Practices on Portfolio at risk of Microfinance Institutions in Tanzania
Get PDFThis study seeks to establish the implication of credit supervision practices on portfolio management of microfinance institutions in Tanzania. Utilizing multivariate regression technique over sampled 219 microfinance institutions from Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Dodoma regions, it documents two plausible results. First, the study finds that timely loan release and number of borrowers per loan officer have positive and statistically significant impact on portfolio at risk of microfinance institutions. Second, it reveals that operation cost per borrower and provision of training sessions to borrowers have negative and statistically significant impact on portfolio at risk of microfinance institutions.
These results suggest that microfinance institutions can diminish portfolio risks by (1) decreasing number of days for processing clients’ loan applications and releasing funds; (2) decreasing number of clients per each loan officer in order to increase efficiency of loan management of the officers; (3) increasing training sessions on various skills given to their borrowers which will increase knowledge and skills of clients on the best ways to keep their business records and proper utilization of funds, and so successful repayments; (4) allocating enough budgets for overall supervisory purposes including loan appraisal processes, disbursement procedures and collection of funds from their clients
Measuring Predictability of Oil and Gas Stock Returns and Performance of Moving Average Trading Rules
Get PDFThe paper re-examines whether investors can predict oil and gas stock prices for abnormal returns using autocorrelation-based trading and filter rules and moving average strategies. In this paper, short and long lengths moving averages are employed and their performances are measured against the returns from simple buy and hold investment strategy. As a result, the paper finds that employed trading rules do not indicate that investors can make abnormal returns in oil and gas stocks. Moreover, the performances of short and long moving averages in predicting abnormal returns also do not suggest a conclusive evidence that any of the moving averages can result in more returns compared to others
The causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Supply Leading vs Demand Following Hypothesis
Get PDFThis paper investigates linkage between financial development and economic growth in Ethiopia during the period from 1975 to 2016 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The paper also schedules Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in order to observe how fast the cointegrated variables convergence in long-run. Accordingly, the results of bound test confirm existence of the long-run relationship between explanatory variables and economic growth. The empirical results show evidence of long- and short-run positive impacts of financial development on economic growth in Ethiopia which implies that progesses in financial sector contribute to economic growth in both short- and long-run. In consideration of few control variables, the study finds all indicators, except inflation and government expenditure, significantly influence economic growth in the long-run. However, it also reveals that government expenditure, trade openness, human capital, and gross investment are pioneering determinants of the economic growth in Ethiopia in short-run. Moreover, the study employs Granger causality tests in order to show direction of impact is running from financial development to economic growth both in short- and long-run. As a result, it finds that the ‘supply-leading’ hypothesis holds in Ethiopia
Analysis of Equity β Components: New Results and Prospectives in a Low β Framework
Get PDFThis work aims to exploit the so-called "Beta anomaly" regarding the risk-reward relationship, and set up rules and methodologies in order to build new efficient portfolios. It is well known in literature, and among practitioners, that “Low Beta strategies” generate good performances exploiting alpha opportunities. In this paper, we focus on β parameters: we analyze this one and its components (Correlation and Standard Deviation) in order to better understand the drivers and contributions behind the “Low Beta strategies”, and eventually exploit them. We perform an extensive empirical analysis on the S&P500 and the relative sectors, covering more than 10 years. In addition, we follow Long/Short strategies in building portfolios based on β and their components where we compare results against the benchmark.
We also introduce "Walking Beta" approach in order to give a deep and innovative view on the market risk/reward relationship, illustrating different time frames and the evolution of risk parameters
Interaction of Economic Freedom and Foreign Direct Investment Globally: Special Cases from Neglected Regions
Get PDFThis paper studies the macroeconomic impact of economic freedom on foreign direct investments inflows in both global and regional panel analyses involving 156 countries through the period of 1995-2016. Unlike to prior literature, it includes often neglected nations such as Fragile and Conflict-Affected states, Sub-Saharan, Oceanian, and Post-Soviet countries. The paper finds a positive impact of economic freedom on FDI under fixed-effects model in global case where a unit change in economic freedom scales FDI inflows up to 1.15 units. More specifically, all 9 regions also refer to positive and significant impact of economic freedom on FDI. The highest impact is recorded in European countries, whereas the lowest ones are documented in Fragile-Conflict affected states, Sub-Saharan zone, and Oceanian countries
A Modified Risk Parity Method for Asset Allocation
Get PDFWe propose a return based modification of the portfolio variance matrix for asset allocation using risk parity. The modification is based upon a single scalar parameter which can be tuned to tailor the allocation for desired expected risk and/or return. The present work contributes a new twist on risk parity. While classical risk parity methods are based exclusively on volatility, the new solution (Modified Risk Parity) considers both historical returns and their variance in the construction of an optimal, diversified investment portfolio. We present two examples for periods including the recent financial market crises. The results suggest that the modification may lead to significantly improved risk adjusted returns over those realized by the conventional risk parity method
The determinants of Bank Profitability: Does Liquidity Creation matter?
Get PDFUsing a panel data set of 4995 banks across 11 developed and emerging countries during the period (2011-2015), this report analyses the amount of liquidity created by banks, how liquidity creation, bank-specific and the macroeconomic factors affecting bank profitability. The results show evidence of increased creation of liquidity over the period. By applying the panel data fixed effect technique, banks that create more liquidity, are set up to have lower profitability. As well as, Asset management, bank size and capital ratio are positively correlated with bank profitability. While, credit quality and operating efficiency affect bank’s profits negatively. Additionally, macroeconomic factors have different impact on profitability indicators in each market. Our findings may help decision makers inside and outside bank to determine important factors affecting bank profitability
Does it take two to tango: Interaction between Credit Default Swaps and National Stock Indices
Get PDFThis paper investigates both short and long-run interaction between BIST-100 index and CDS prices over January 2008 to May 2015 using ARDL technique. The paper documents several findings. First, ARDL analysis shows that 1 TL increase in CDS shrinks BIST-100 index by 22.5 TL in short-run and 85.5 TL in long-run. Second, 1000 TL increase in BIST index price causes 25 TL and 44 TL reducation in Turkey's CDS prices in short- and long-run respectively. Third, a percentage increase in interest rate shrinks BIST index by 359 TL and a percentage increase in inflation rate scales CDS prices up to 13.34 TL both in long-run. In case of short-run, these impacts are limited with 231 TL and 5.73 TL respectively. Fourth, a kurush increase in TL/USD exchange rate leads 24.5 TL (short-run) and 78 TL (long-run) reductions in BIST, while it augments CDS prices by 2.5 TL (short-run) and 3 TL (long-run) respectively. Fifth, each negative political events decreases BIST by 237 TL in short-run and 538 TL in long-run, while it increases CDS prices by 33 TL in short-run and 89 TL in long-run. These findings imply the highly dollar indebted capital structure of Turkish firms, and overly sensitivity of financial markets to the uncertainties in political sphere. Finally, the paper provides evidence for that BIST and CDS with control variables drift too far apart, and converge to a long-run equilibrium at a moderate monthly speed
Nonparametric NAR-ARCH Modelling of Stock Prices by the Kernel Methodology
Get PDFThis paper analyses cyclical behaviour of Orange stock price listed in French stock exchange over 01/03/2000 to 02/02/2017 by testing the nonlinearities through a class of conditional heteroscedastic nonparametric models. The linearity and Gaussianity assumptions are rejected for Orange Stock returns and informational shocks have transitory effects on returns and volatility. The forecasting results show that Orange stock prices are short-term predictable and nonparametric NAR-ARCH model has better performance over parametric MA-APARCH model for short horizons. Plus, the estimates of this model are also better comparing to the predictions of the random walk model. This finding provides evidence for weak form of inefficiency in Paris stock market with limited rationality, thus it emerges arbitrage opportunities
Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero
Get PDFThis paper examines factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings. First, cryptomarket-related factors such as market beta, trading volume, and volatility appear to be significant determinant for all five cryptocurrencies both in short- and long-run. Second, attractiveness of cryptocurrencies also matters in terms of their price determination, but only in long-run. This indicates that formation (recognition) of the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies are subjected to time factor. In other words, it travels slowly within the market. Third, SP500 index seems to have weak positive long-run impact on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litcoin, while its sign turns to negative losing significance in short-run, except Bitcoin that generates an estimate of -0.20 at 10% significance level.
Lastly, error-correction models for Bitcoin, Etherem, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero show that cointegrated series cannot drift too far apart, and converge to a long-run equilibrium at a speed of 23.68%, 12.76%, 10.20%, 22.91%, and 14.27% respectively