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Forecasting agricultural land prices in Ukraine using LSTM deep neural networks
No full textPurpose. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodological approach for forecasting the dynamics of agricultural land prices in Ukraine based on deep neural networks LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) and a comparative analysis of these networks. The study involved analysing the time series of agricultural land prices for 2021–2024, developing and comparing three LSTM neural network architectures, evaluating their performance, and creating a forecast for 2025. Methodology / approach. The study uses a time series of prices for transactions on the purchase/sale of ownership rights to agricultural land plots in Ukraine for the period from July 2021 to August 2024. Three architectures of LSTM neural networks (basic, with Dropout, and deep) implemented in Python using the Pandas, Sklearn, Keras libraries. The performance of the models is evaluated using the RMSE, MAE, MSE, MAPE metrics. A correlation analysis of the relationships between price, plot area, and time characteristics (year and month of observation) was conducted. Results. The deep LSTM model demonstrated the highest prediction accuracy with the lowest RMSE value of 2375.90. Significant correlations were found between price and land area (-0.48), as well as weak positive correlations with year and month of observation (0.17). The forecast for 2025 shows a downward trend in prices in dollar terms from 805–810 to 724–725 USD/ha. The obtained results are focused on improving the accuracy of forecasting and ensuring the adoption of informed management decisions in the field of land relations. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, different architectures of LSTM neural networks are applied and compared to forecast prices on the Ukrainian agricultural land market, which allowed identifying the most efficient model. A comprehensive analysis of the time series was conducted using seasonal decomposition to take into account seasonal fluctuations and long-term trends. Practical value / implications. The developed models and methodology create a toolkit for improving the accuracy of agricultural land price forecasting, which can be used by market participants, investors and agricultural policy makers to make informed decisions in the field of land relations
Integrated assessment of weldability of steel with increased strength
Get PDFModern production of agricultural equipment and facilities, hulls of ships, stationary oil drilling platforms, wind energy installations and other metal structures makes extensive use of sheet steel of increased strength. The main manufacturing process is welding, the quality of which depends on multiple factors, including the ability of steel to resist welding. It is known that the properties of the thermal influence zone are highly dependent on phase transformations, the nature of which is determined by the intensity and development of diffusion processes of carbon redistribution and alloying elements under the impact of the welding thermal cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the weldability of the steel of a certain chemical composition, in order to choose the optimal method and the technological parameters of the welding mode for the manufacture of a specific metal structure. In order to reduce material costs, you can use analytical calculation methods that were developed at the E.O. Paton Electric Welding Institute. They are based on the analysis of the literature and the study of about 150 diagrams of the thermokinetic decomposition of austenite. Mathematical models make it possible to predict with a sufficient degree of accuracy the phase composition and mechanical properties of the high-temperature thermal influence zone depending on the chemical composition and cooling time of the metal, heated to a maximum temperature of 1350ºC, in the temperature range 850-500ºC. However, such tests are quite expensive and do not allow optimization of weld properties when the welding mode, mode, welding materials and other underlying technological factors change. In this connection, the objective was to assess the reliability of the proposed methodology in the study of weldability of shipbuilding steel of the increased strength of the category E36, for the weakest T(transverse) – the orientation of the sheet of 50 mm thickness. A high performance of the steel category is achieved by a limited increase in the aluminium content or other grain-crushing elements (Nb, V, Ti), which ensures that the size of the austenitic grain is not greater than the fifth point. The research showed that analytical methods for calculating the mechanical characteristics of high temperature HAZ sites by chemical composition, taking into account the cooling rate after welding, provide a level of confidence sufficient for practical application and can be recommended for the primary evaluation of the properties of welded compounds of high-thickness steel plates of category E36 (T-orientation). The impact work (KV-40) of the high-temperature sections of the high-temperature thermal influence zone is not subject to an analytical evaluation with the degree of accuracy required for production practic
Peculiarities of photosynthetic activity of winter pea plants depending on the sowing rates
Get PDFPeas are a crop that is quite picky about weather conditions, therefore, against the backdrop of worsening climatic conditions, it is necessary to pay attention to the wintering form. The main advantage of overwintering peas is that it uses the moisture of the winter period and thanks to this forms above-ground and underground biomass of plants even before the onset of summer drought. At the beginning of the recovery of spring vegetation, plants have a well-developed root system that penetrates deep into the soil up to 10 cm, while spring peas at this time are just beginning to sow. As a result, the potential yield of winter peas is 2-3 times higher than that of spring peas. The purpose of the research was to determine the influence of varietal features of plants, seed sowing rates on the photosynthetic activity of crops and grain yield of winter peas in the conditions of southern Ukraine. Research methods: field, laboratory, computational, statistical. As a result of the research, the peculiarities of the growth of the above-ground mass of plants, the photosynthetic activity of crops and the formation of grain yield of winter pea varieties were studied. The optimal rate of winter pea seed sowing, at which the genetic potential of varieties is fully realized, has been revealed. The norm of seed sowing was established, at which winter pea plants formed the maximum area of the leaf surface. Research has established that in most cases the maximum level of biomass harvest is formed at the minimum density of plants in the budding phase. As the density increases, the biomass gradually decreases, which is a reliable sign of the significant advantage of crops with lower sowing rates in terms of photosynthesis productivity.It was determined that the highest winter pea grain yield, on average over the years of research and according to the studied sowing rates, was formed by the Enduro variety. Research has established that wintering peas form a small area of the leaf surface, which is characterized by a high level of difference in productivity at a reduced seeding rate. The practical aspects and conclusions reflected in the article are aimed at improving the processes of wintering pea productivity in the conditions of southern Ukraine, in particular, at significantly more efficient use of moisture during the growing season of plants for the formation of a unit of harves
Introduction of the ombudsman institute in the insurance market of Ukraine
No full textThe insurance industry plays an important role in the economy, contributing to the intermediation and risk-bearing mechanism. At the same time, the insurance industry contributes to socio-economic growth due to accumulated long-term financial resources that can be directly used in the economy. The purpose of the article is to develop recommendations on the possibility of creating an insurance ombudsman institute in Ukraine based on international experience. The set goal determined the solution of the following tasks: to investigate the legal aspects of the activity of the financial ombudsman in different countries and provide their comparative characteristics; to determine the specifics of the implementation in Ukraine of the alternative dispute resolution mechanism on the insurance market; justify the benefits of activating the activity of the insurance ombudsman institute in Ukraine. In the process of carrying out a scientific search, such general scientific methods as: abstract-logical; monographic; comparative; graphic; dialectical method; comparative legal method; structural-functional method. The peculiarities of the functioning of the relevant alternative mechanisms for resolving insurance disputes in different countries, the mechanisms for dealing with customer complaints, and the resolution of disputes with the participation of a professional mediator were studied. It was determined that in world practice, two main models of financial ombudsmen are usually distinguished: British and German. It is substantiated that the introduction of the insurance ombudsman institute in Ukraine as an alternative platform for considering complaints will have advantages for all participants of the insurance market.It has been proven that the activities of such an institution can consider disputes related to settlement of claims, wrongful sale, payment of insurance premiums, legal registration of the policy, delay of settlements, failure to issue insurance documents, etc. Such an insurance ombudsman institution will be responsible for protecting the interests and handling policyholder complaints, and the main purpose of the ombudsman’s activities is to handle policyholder complaints outside the court system in a cost-effective and impartial manne
Realization of the adaptive yield potential of the assortment of winter wheat in the Steppe zone under different growing conditions
No full textClimate changes in recent decades have increased the degree of risks in crop production. The consequence of such processes is an increase in the temperature regime against the background of a significant moisture deficit in critical periods of plant growth and development. Accordingly, research aimed at establishing the adaptability of plants to such climatic changes is relevant and timely. The purpose of the research is to establish the principles of implementing the adaptive potential of new varieties of winter wheat of different types of development in the Steppe zone under the conditions of climate change. Records and their assessment were carried out according to the generally accepted methods of Ukrainian variety testing with mandatory statistical and dispersion analysis of the results of field experiments. The establishment of indicators of the stability of quantitative traits and plasticity was carried out using the Eberhard-Russell algorithm, which is based on a regression analysis of the dependence of the grain yield of winter wheat of different varieties on the environmental index. The results of the research established that universal type varieties with a stem length of 85-90 cm are the most suitable for irrigated and non-irrigated conditions. Regression analysis of the data on the plasticity and stability of the elements of the crop structure in different varieties of winter wheat proved that their variability directly depends on the genotype and ecological gradients. According to the results of the assessment of the adaptive potential, it was established that the parameters of plasticity (bi = 0.804-0.989) and yield (7.33-7.63 t/ha exceed the standard by https://doi.org/10.4-14.9%) showed winter wheat varieties of the universal type - Askaniyska, Askaniyska Bereginya, Perlyna, Znahidka Odeska, while Khersonska 99, Kirena, Yaroslavna, Kuyalnyk, etc. were characterized by an intensive type of development. Varieties of the universal type were more plastic and stable in the formation of ear productivity, compared to short and tall biotypes. The scientific significance of the research lies in the substantiation of scientific principles, practical recommendations for improving varietal agricultural technology of winter wheat, which had different genetic and ecological origins, in irrigated and non-irrigated conditions of the Steppe zon
Determining the probability of failure of marine diesel engine parts
No full textMaritime transportation is the essence of the international economy. Today, about ninety percent of world trade is carried out by sea through 50,000 merchant ships. Most of these vessels are powered by mainline diesel engines due to their reliability and fuel efficiency. Reliability of system elements in general depends on random failures, significant wear during operation, additional wear during start-up. Accidental damage to diesel engine components is a major hazard during operation, as some parts (such as cylinder liners and pistons) are usually replaced during repairs. On the other hand, preventive service does not eliminate random malfunctions. Therefore, in the general problem of assessing the reliability of a diesel engine, there is a mathematical problem of assessing the reliability and durability, taking into account only the random failures of its elements, which are of the greatest practical importance. The purpose of the work is a mathematical study of the reliability of parts of the cylinder-piston group of the main engines of dry cargo ships. Using a systematic approach and a probabilistic statistical method, it was established that the most common and difficult case is the simultaneous action on a system element (for example, a cylinder sleeve) of factors that cause wear during the period of operation (including during the start-up period) and accidental failures. It was determined that the quality of the cylinder-piston system in ships of the "Ostriv Rosiyskiy" type is higher than in the ships of the "Simferopol" and "Murom" types. Empirical formulas for estimating the probability of emergency failure of main engine system elements during the period of operation between factory repairs were obtained, where the main danger during the period of operation was carried by accidental failures. Based on the results of the study, it is possible to establish a schedule for the periodicity of maintenance of the ship's main engine and the cost of losses due to ship downtime due to failures, and can also be used in the reliability study of other types of ship's main engines. The results make it possible to determine the reliability of the parts of the cylinder-piston group of the main engines of dry cargo ships. and, in particular, to establish the maintenance schedule of the ship's main engine and the cost of damages due to ship downtime due to failures, and can also be used in the study of the reliability of other types of main engines of other series of ship
Bioenergetic efficiency of drip irrigation modes of grapes
No full textIn modern conditions of water scarcity, the research of the energy evaluation of different modes of drip irrigation to reduce the consumption of irrigation water, material and energy resources, their effective use on irrigated grape plantations cultivated on the sandy chernozems of the left bank of the Lower Dnieper, where only irrigation is the guarantee of annual, constant high yield of vineyards. The purpose of the research was to study the energy efficiency of grape drip irrigation regimes, determine the volume and structure of resource costs, and the level of their payback. Field and comparative-calculation methods were used during the research. The establishment and conduct of experiments were carried out according to the methodology of the research case. The paper presents the results of research on the energy efficiency of drip irrigation modes of grape plantations. It is established that maintaining an unhindered moisture supply to plants during the growing season is achieved by an additional cost of 9.29 GJ/ha of anthropogenic energy. A more economical regime of humidity of the active soil layer during the growing season reduces energy costs to 5.2-7.7 GJ/ha. The structure of additional energy costs, regardless of the irrigation regime of plantings, is dominated by the energy of irrigation water - 80% and energy carriers - 18 %. The practical significance of the research is to conduct an energy assessment of different modes of drip irrigation of grapes to reduce the consumption of irrigation water, material and energy resources and their efficient us
Conceptual foundations of the behavioral approach to managing the system of financial and economic security of the state
No full textDespite the fact that the use of the behavioral approach in the management of the system of financial and economic security of the state is relatively new, the study of the behavioral orientation of the financial system as one of the factors of functional changes will contribute to the formation of an effective mechanism for ensuring financial security. The growing role of the human factor, which is central in gender-oriented and behavioral aspects, increases the level of relevance of applying the behavioral approach in the process of managing the system of financial and economic security of the state. The purpose of this study is to substantiate the conceptual foundations of the behavioral approach to managing the state's financial and economic security system, which includes gender-oriented and behavioral aspects, and complements the systemic approach to managing the state's financial and economic security system. The features of state management of financial and economic security systems in various states are summarized and the main models and research centers of financial and economic security system management in the world are systematized.It is noted that the application of a behavioral approach to the management of the financial and economic security system of the state allows us to consider that the organizational behavior of a social organism is a set of reactions of the financial and economic system to the adjustment of external and internal conditions of functioning for the purpose of self-preservation and potential development. Such behavior is formed taking into account the personality management system, gender balance, individual psychological characteristics and natural properties. The toolkit of the gender-oriented component of the behavioral approach is summarized and the influence of the gender structure on the level of financial and economic security of the state is analyzed based on the results of the survey of respondents. The existing gender differences in the scientific views of men and women economists are summarized and the questions are specified, on which the largest statistically significant difference between the points of view of women and men in the field of managing the system of financial and economic security of the state is recorded. The essence of the economic category "behavioristic approach to managing the system of financial and economic security of the state" is specified, which is considered as a specific approach to ensuring the financial and economic security of the state and permanent monitoring of the phenomena and processes that occur in the system of its guarantee, which is based on gender and behavioral aspects, studies the features of management decision-making with mandatory consideration of psychological, mental and emotional features for the purpose of managing and forecasting the behavior of participants in financial and economic relations at the state leve
Prevention of degradation processes of soils irrigated with mineralized water through plastering
Get PDFThe long-term irrigation of extensive areas in the steppe zone of Ukraine using low-quality and mineralized water has caused degradation processes associated with soil salinization. To mitigate or alleviate these processes, researchers investigated the potential of chemical reclamation through the application of phosphogypsum. The study took place in the northern Steppe of Ukraine near the village of Oleksandrivka, Dnipro district, Dnipropetrovsk region. Over many years, field experiments were conducted, introducing phosphogypsum as a chemical meliorant. The experimental design included the application of phosphogypsum at rates of 1.4, 3.0, and 6.0 t/ha during different periods of the year. Standardized research methods were used for sampling, laboratory analysis, and processing of the results. The research identified a high salt content (0.35-0.48%) in the arable soil layer, signs of salinization (exchangeable sodium content of 3.64%), and unsatisfactory physical condition of the soil in the research areas. The application of phosphogypsum led to an increase in sulfate anions, as observed in the soil's sulfate chemistry, while the control areas exhibited a soda-sulfate type of salinity. The pH level of the water extract remained within neutral values throughout the years of the study. Positive changes were observed regarding the degree of soil salinity. Specifically, the application of phosphogypsum at rates of 3 and 6 t/ha in irrigated areas resulted in a change from moderate to slightly saline salinity levels. The research also demonstrated a positive effect on the sodium-adsorption ratio, particularly when phosphogypsum was applied during irrigation in the third year. The sodium-adsorption ratio decreased by 69% compared to the control options, indicating a better ameliorative effect of phosphogypsum during irrigation. Under the conditions of using water of class II quality for irrigation, the optimal application of phosphogypsum was found to be at doses of 3 t/ha for spring cultivation and 6 t/ha for the main cultivation in autumn. These application rates effectively reduced the degree of soil salinity and improved the ecological and meliorational conditions of the irrigated are
Modern cultivation technologies in improvement of corn quality
Get PDFResearch on the development of sustainable and productive methods of corn cultivation is becoming relevant due to the growing demand for food resources and the need to optimise agrotechnical processes. The study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of maize cultivation under different tillage methods. A field experiment was conducted to achieve this goal, phenological observations of corn plant development was made, and grain quality was studied. The results of the maize yield analysis show that ploughing to a depth of 30 cm produces the highest maize yield of 91.6 c/ha while disking to a depth of 15 cm results in the lowest yield of 80.6 c/ha. The study proved that the method of tillage affects grain quality indicators, in particular, the content of crude fibre, starch, protein and crude fat. Thus, when ploughing to a depth of 30 cm, the starch content in the grain was 70.9%, crude fibre – 2.12%, protein – https://doi.org/10.2%, and crude fat – 4.225%. The correlation and regression analysis showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) for tillage is about 0.9, which means that the model accurately describes the available data, and for grain quality indicators, R2 is in the range of 0.66-0.99, which also indicates a strong relationship between the factors under study. The practical significance of the research results is that they can serve as a basis for optimising the agronomic processes of maize cultivation to increase yields and improve grain qualit