University of Minnesota, Duluth
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Frozen Food Consumption Patterns During and After COVID-19: Trends and Implications for Public Health
No full textForecasting retail food prices changes from highly pathogenic avian influenza
No full textShifting seasonal patterns have arisen in food markets due to changing supply chains, consumer preferences, and infectious disease prevalence. Persistent infections of H5N1 avian influenza among U.S. poultry and egg-laying bird populations have altered the seasonal patterns in corresponding market dynamics, particularly prices. While the geographic distribution of the precise timing of cases remains difficult, the broad pattern of higher prevalence in Winter and lower prevalence in summer typically leads to price spikes early each year. This pattern represents a shift from historical seasonality, which typically saw mild price spikes around the winter holidays and Easter. At the same time, the imposition of desirable model features may enhance forecast performance when historical data do not yet capture these phenomena. However, such ad hoc modifications should be done carefully, as the addition, potentially intuitively appealing, of a model structure often increases forecast errors. We find that simpler forecasting models typically yield the lowest forecast error if they are allowed to adapt over time. More accurate predictions facilitate better planning among producers, consumers, and entities providing food assistance to low-income households
Price Adjustment and Welfare Changes Under Consumer Loss Aversion: The Impact of HPAI on the Table Eggs Market
No full textBetween 2022 and 2025, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) affected more than 130 million commercial table egg laying hens in the United States, causing large and sudden decreases in supply and dramatic price increases. Consumer loss aversion may amplify the welfare impact of sudden price increases. This study evaluates the impact of egg price changes on consumer welfare, comparing loss aversion models with baseline results. Using data from the USDA Food-at-Home Monthly Area Price data, we fit a standard and modified almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to estimate demand elasticities which are used in an equilibrium displacement model. Results show baseline consumer surplus losses of xxxx for the 2022 and 2025 price spike, respectively. When the modified AIDS model is used, results are consistent with loss aversion, and welfare losses increase by X%. Diagnostic testing shows the loss aversion model has superior performance. This study helps policy makers better understand the true welfare impact of HPAI
Examining the Role of Spatial Heterogeneity in Productivity-Enhancing Activities: Evidence from Chinese Food and Beverage Firms
No full textBundling Products and Exclusive Invitation: The Application of Clock-Proxy Auction in Marketing Cell-Cultivated Salmon
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Intrahousehold Bargaining and the Effect of Nutrition Education Programs for Children: Evidence from SNAP Households
No full textFood recalls: An unnecessary and preventable factor in food waste
No full textFirst paragraphs:
Food recalls are initiated by food manufacturers or mandated by regulatory agencies when a problem that can harm the public is identified. Recalls take place after the products have left the processing facility and are no longer under the processor’s control, and their primary goal is to minimize harm by retrieving as much product as possible from the market. Not all recalls have the same gravity. In the U.S., food recalls are classified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) into three classes based on the severity of health risks, with Class I being the most severe; a Class I recall is for defective products that can cause severe health effects or death (FDA, 2024, p. 7-1; UDSA Food Safety and Inspection Service [USDA FSIS], 2024-b).
Recalls can be partial or total, depending on how efficient a processor is in codifying and tracing different lots of products. Depending on the issue, if the lot sizes are relatively small, recalls can be contained to just the affected lots. However, if there is no clear separation between lots or their size is significantly large, more expansive recalls are required. When lots are not clearly identified, a total recall of all products in the market may be necessary. An example of this was the multistate recall by the Peanut Corporation of America in 2009 due to its peanut butter being contaminated with Salmonella typhimurium (CDC, 2009). In this recall, more than 3,900 different types of products were retrieved from the market from 46 U.S. states (Flynn, 2009).
Once the recalled product is in the processor’s hands, the next step is determining what to do with it. This may involve rework, utilization for other uses, or disposal, the latter being, in most cases, the safer and most cost-effective choice. When disposal is chosen, landfilling and incineration are options for solid products, while liquids are generally dumped into a drain. Regardless of the discarding method, the once-edible product becomes food waste. . .
Putting the P(ee) in perennial agriculture: Reflections on a workplace urine nutrient reclamation project
No full textPhosphorus (P) is a finite resource essential for food production currently lost from fields at an unsustainable rate via runoff and crop harvests. These losses could be addressed by pairing perennial crops, which reduce runoff with their deep roots that stabilize the soil, with recovering nutrients from human excreta. Urine contains the majority of P and other nutrients that humans excrete and therefore has been the focus of recent nutrient reclamation efforts. Urine fertilizer has yet to be explored for perennials, however, and understanding the biophysical effects of urine fertilizer on soil nutrients and biomass in perennial crops could inform the design of a more circular food system. To that end, we started the first known workplace urine nutrient reclamation project in the state of Kansas, U.S., to test the feasibility of supplying available soil P from urine to alfalfa (Medicago sativa), a perennial legume forage crop. After one growing season, urine fertilizer had no effect on aboveground biomass but did increase available soil P which otherwise decreased in the control treatments. Urine also increased soil nitrate and sodium compared to the water-only controls. The field study was coupled with a survey of staff members who participated in urine collection to identify opportunities and potential barriers to urine diversion in the U.S. The survey revealed a lack of awareness of both unsustainable P management and urine recovery as a potential solution, underscoring the need for increased education. Regulatory challenges faced in the second field season also highlighted the need for policy that explicitly defines urine separately from wastewater in the U.S. We hope that results from this project will make it more feasible to conduct additional studies and circular food system community-based projects on a larger scale going forward