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What’sApp to Sunak
Get PDFThis article features a leaked WhatsApp message to the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. It was written by Mark E Avelli, a political consultant who sets out what has happened recently in the UK and how he suggests Sunak should act if he wants to remain unsuccessful. That sounds counter-intuitive but not when framed by the revolutionary political theory embraced by the consultant: success is rooted in understanding that victory is not to be acquired by saying and doing the right thing, but the opposite. Only when we understand that nobody actually wants political power and the responsibility that inevitably comes with it, do the actions of politicians make any kind of sense. Or for those keen on a short consulting takeaway to use in teaching political leadership: ‘fail fast and keep failing’. The focus here is obviously on the UK, but for readers in other countries that are led or used to be led by similar leaders, this article provides an explanation for why we keep electing people who appear to have no idea what they’re doing
Understanding the potential role of whole genome sequencing (WGS) in managing patients with gonorrhoea : a systematic review of WGS use on human pathogens in individual patient care
Get PDFObjectives
The utility of whole genome sequencing (WGS) to inform sexually transmitted infection (STI) patient management is unclear. Timely WGS data might support clinical management of STIs by characterising epidemiological links and antimicrobial resistance profiles. We conducted a systematic review of clinical application of WGS to any human pathogen that may be transposable to gonorrhoea.
Methods
We searched six databases for articles published between 01/01/2010-06/02/2023 that reported on real/near real-time human pathogen WGS to inform clinical intervention. All article types from all settings were included. Findings were analysed using narrative synthesis.
Results
We identified 12,179 articles, of which eight reported applications to inform tuberculosis (n=7) and gonorrhoea (n=1) clinical patient management. WGS data were successfully used as an adjunct to clinical and epidemiological data to enhance contact-tracing (n=2), inform antimicrobial therapy (n=5) and identify cross-contamination (n=1). WGS identified gonorrhoea transmission chains that were not established via partner notification. Future applications could include insights into pathogen exposure detected within sexual networks for targeted patient management.
Conclusions
While there was some evidence of WGS use to provide individualised tuberculosis and gonorrhoea treatment, the eight identified studies contained few participants. Future research should focus on testing WGS intervention effectiveness and examining ethical considerations of STI WGS use
Subnational projections of Lymphatic filariasis elimination targets in Ethiopia to support national level policy
Get PDFBackground Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. Methods Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. Results Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. Conclusions The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions
Unveiling the origin of the optical and UV emission during the 2017 giant outburst of the Galactic ULX pulsar Swift J0243.6+6124
Get PDFContext. From late September 2017 to January 2018, the Be X-ray binary (BeXB) Swift J0243.6+6124 underwent a giant outburst that was unprecedently bright. The reported X-ray luminosities were so high that the system was classified as an ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX). It was also the first BeXB pulsar to show radio jet emission. The source was not only bright in X-rays and radio, but also in the optical and ultraviolet (UV) wavelenghts as well.
Aims. In this work, we aim to understand the origin of the observed optical/UV fluxes simultaneous to the X-ray emission.
Methods. We studied the optical/UV light curves in comparison with the X-ray fluxes along the outburst. We considered the main mechanisms that can explain the optical/UV emission in X-ray binaries. Due to the tight correlation observed between the optical/UV and X-ray light curves, reprocessing of X-rays seems to be the most plausible explanation. We calculated the timescales of the light curve decays and studied the correlation indexes between the optical and X-ray emission. Finally, we built a physical model that considers the X-ray heating of the surface of the donor star, irradiation of the accretion disk, and emission from a viscously heated accretion disk, so that we could reproduce the observed optical/UV spectral energy distributions (SEDs) along the outburst. In our model, we considered the Be circumstellar disk to be co-planar to the orbit and then we neglected its irradiation in the current model. As an input for the model, we used as incident X-ray luminosities those calculated from the bolometric X-ray fluxes obtained from the spectral fit of the Swift/XRT and BAT observations.
Results. The timescales of the exponential decay of the outburst are between two and four times longer for the UV and optical light curves than for the X-ray light curve. The correlation index between the optical/UV and X-ray fluxes varies between optical/UV filters and when different X-ray bands are considered and is larger for the rise than for the decay phase of the outburst for the fluxes at redder wavelengths. The modelling of the SED shows that X-ray heating of the companion star surface is the main mechanism contributing to the UV emission and contributes significantly to the optical emission during the whole outburst. The X-ray irradiation of the accretion disk is necessary to reproduce the optical observed fluxes from MJD 58047 to 58120 and contributes significantly to the UV fluxes close to the peak of the outburst. As a first attempt, the fits yield an increasing value of the outer radius of the accretion disk along the outburst. An alternative interpretation points to variations in the geometry of the inner flow and the fraction of reprocessed X-ray emission during the outburst. On the other hand, variations in the geometry of the Be circumstellar disk could also play a role, but they have not been considered in the current model.
Conclusions. Reprocessing of X-rays via the X-ray heating of the Be star surface and as irradiation of the accretion disk is the main mechanism that can reproduce the observed optical/UV emission during the 2017−2018 giant outburst of Swift J0243.6+6124
Awarding gaps in higher education by ethnicity, schooling and family background : a UK university case study
No full textBayesian spline-based hidden Markov models with applications to actimetry data and sleep analysis
Get PDFB-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modeling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the simultaneous estimation of all unknown model parameters including the number of states. A parsimonious knot configuration of the B-splines is identified by the use of a trans-dimensional Markov chain sampling algorithm, while model selection regarding the number of states can be performed based on the marginal likelihood within a parallel sampling framework. Using extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the superiority of our methodology over alternative approaches as well as its robustness and scalability. We illustrate the explorative use of our methods for data on activity in animals, that is whitetip-sharks. The flexibility of our Bayesian approach also facilitates the incorporation of more realistic assumptions and we demonstrate this by developing a novel hierarchical conditional HMM to analyse human activity for circadian and sleep modeling. Supplementary materials for this article are available online
Effect of superheat on microstructure and mechanical properties of Al-7Si-2Fe alloy
Get PDFRecycling of aluminum (Al) alloys is critical to meet the demands of global net zero emission targets. The major challenge in the recycling of Al alloys is the presence of a higher content of iron as an impurity in Al alloy scraps, which deteriorates the mechanical properties of recycled alloys. In the present work, Al-7%Si alloys and Al-7%Si-2Fe alloys were cast at three different superheat temperatures to study the effect of superheat on the formation of iron intermetallic particles in these alloys. Microstructure–mechanical properties correlations were carried out using SEM-EDS and tensile testing of the alloys. 3D x-ray computed tomography (XCT) results show that the β-phase intermetallic particles were observed to be large and platelet-shaped in the Al-7Si-2Fe alloy cast at 700°C, while these particles appeared to be finer and uniformly distributed throughout the sample in the alloy cast at 900°C. XCT results show the presence of large shrinkage porosity in the Al-7Si-2Fe alloy cast at 700°C, due to the presence of large intermetallic particles which hinder the flow of molten metal during solidification of the alloys. Tensile test results show that the addition of 2% iron resulted in a significant reduction in the elongation of the alloy at all superheat temperatures
