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L’istituzionalizzazione dello strategic foresight nelle amministrazioni pubbliche: sfide e opportunità
No full textStrategic foresight is increasingly employed by governments as a tool to support decision-making and strategic thinking. When integrated into the policy cycle, foresight can enhance the ability of decision-makers to anticipate risks and opportunities, prepare for future scenarios, and assess the impact of long-term trends. In recent years, the topic has gained significant attention, driven by initiatives from international organizations—particularly the OECD and the European Union—and by the growing need to manage rapid change and uncertainty.The first part of this chapter provides a brief overview of the roles foresight can play throughout the policy cycle, highlighting its strengths and limitations. The second part explores how governments can develop and interpret foresight functions. The final section offers reflections and practical examples to guide the initiation and structuring of a pathway toward the full institutionalization of foresight. Drawing on insights from both academic literature and practical experience, the chapter presents a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities faced by governments and public administrations in promoting and institutionalising foresight. It also emphasizes the importance of building an ecosystem that includes local authorities, private actors, NGOs, universities, research institutions, and civil society
Briefing: Lessons to learn from Welsh roads policy
Get PDFThis briefing note reviews the development of roads policy in Wales. It demonstrates that the foundations for roads policy are built on the Well-being of Future Generations Act (2015). The Act has influenced strategy in relation to net zero carbon dioxide (‘carbon’), land-use planning and the Wales Transport Strategy. The briefing demonstrates how these three strategies have integrated goals to deliver Welsh Government’s ambitions. It summarises the four purposes and four conditions, now adopted as policy, for testing future road investment allocations within Wales, and how these arose from a roads review process. The briefing discusses the consequences for professionals in relation to planning and designing solutions and ‘carbon’ assessments
Invasive urodynamic investigations in the management of women with refractory overactive bladder symptoms (FUTURE) in the UK: A multicentre, superiority, parallel, open-label, randomised controlled trial
Get PDFOveractive bladder is a common problem affecting women worldwide, with a negative effect on their social and professional lives. Before considering invasive treatments, guidelines recommend urodynamics to identify detrusor overactivity. However, the clinical-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of urodynamics has never been robustly assessed in this cohort of women. We aimed to compare the clinical-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of urodynamics plus comprehensive clinical assessment (CCA) versus CCA only in the management of women with refractory overactive bladder symptoms. We did a multicentre, superiority, parallel, open-label, randomised controlled trial in 63 UK hospitals. Women aged 18 years or older with refractory overactive bladder or urgency predominant mixed urinary incontinence, with failed conservative management and being considered for invasive treatment, were randomly assigned (1:1) to urodynamics plus CCA versus CCA only. Assignment used an internet-based application with stratified random permuted blocks and site and baseline diagnosis as stratum. Primary outcome was participant-reported success at the last follow-up timepoint, measured by the Patient Global Impression of Improvement at 15 months after randomisation. Primary economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained modelled over the participants lifetime. Analysis was based on the intention-to-treat principle. This study is registered with ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN63268739). Between Nov 6, 2017, and March 1, 2021, 1099 participants were randomly assigned to urodynamics plus CCA (n=550) or CCA only (n=549). At the final follow-up timepoint, participant-reported success rates of "very much improved" and "much improved" were not superior in the urodynamics plus CCA group (117 [23·6%] of 496) versus the CCA-only group (114 [22·7%] of 503; adjusted odds ratio 1·12 [95% CI 0·73-1·74]; p=0·60). Serious adverse events were low and similar between groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £42 643 per QALY gained. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed urodynamics had a 34% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, which reduced further when extrapolated over the patient's lifetime. In women with refractory overactive bladder or urgency predominant mixed urinary incontinence, the participant-reported success in the urodynamics plus CCA group was not superior to the CCA-only group, and urodynamics was not cost-effective at the £20 000 per QALY gained threshold. UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © Crown Copyright © 2025 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Glowing brilliance: A jewellery and crystal growth collaboration
Get PDFThis paper documents the collaboration between industrial crystal grower BREVALOR (Switzerland) and Sofie Boons (United Kingdom) conducted as part of a Case Study set up to explore whether the collaboration between art/design (jewellery) and science (crystal growth) practitioners could result in innovative man-made crystal materials that would be interesting for the production of jewellery. BRG and BRB crystals, both glow in the dark materials previously not used in jewellery, were grown and manufactured for their application and use in jewellery. The collaboration, outcomes and ongoing work is documented in order to aid a consideration of the opportunities and challenges such art-science collaborations (jewellery and crystal growth) pose and how they could result in innovative outcomes that challenge our current appreciation of man-made gemstones
Effects of cold atmospheric plasma on oxidative stability, microstructure, and volatile profile of pork meat
Get PDFCold atmospheric plasma (CAP) is an innovative non-thermal technology with potential to improve meat safety and preservation. This study evaluated the effects of CAP on oxidative markers, antioxidant activity, fatty acid profile, volatile composition, surface morphology, muscle microstructural characteristics and texture parameters. CAP was applied using piezoelectric direct discharge technology (PDD), with treatment durations of 0, 6, and 9 min. The results showed a significant increase in oxidation markers after 9 min treatment. Peroxide value and carbonyl content increased by ∼36 % and ∼21 %, respectively, whereas aldehyde content increased by ∼23 % after 6 and 9 min. Antioxidant capacity also increased after 9 min treatment, with total phenolic content increasing by 18 %, 2,2-azino-bis-3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid (ABTS) activity by 17 %, and 1,1-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) activity by 17 % following 6 and 9 min treatment. CAP also modified the fatty acid profile, reducing saturated fats by ∼7 % and increasing monounsaturated fats by ∼11 %. Volatile analysis indicated increased levels of aldehydes, alcohols and ketones along with reduced sulphides, following 6 and 9 min of CAP exposure, with more pronounced changes observed at 9 min. Prolonged CAP exposure increased type IIB myofibre diameter and enhanced texture parameters, with hardness, springiness, and chewiness increasing by ∼35 %, ∼17 %, and ∼42 %, respectively. Surface roughness was most affected after 9 min of treatment. These findings show the need to optimise CAP treatment to enhance its benefits in meat processing while mitigating its adverse effects on meat quality
Psychometric validation and scale derivation of the ICIQ-Underactive Bladder patient reported outcome measure
No full textTo complete the psychometric validation and scale derivation of the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Underactive Bladder (ICIQ-UAB). The developmental ICIQ-UAB was administered within a Phase II randomised controlled trial of a drug for the treatment of underactive bladder at baseline and follow-up 4 weeks after the start of trial medication treatment. Descriptive analyses and exploratory factor analyses (EFAs) informed the derivation of scored domains for symptoms, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and associated bother items. The reliability was assessed by Cronbach's α, while validity was assessed via the correlation with other concurrently administered PROMs at baseline. Responsiveness was evaluated using the change in mean scores from baseline to follow-up. A total of 132 male and female patients with the symptomatic and urodynamic characteristics of detrusor underactivity were enrolled in the analysis. Descriptive analyses and EFAs informed scored domains for 11 symptom items with associated bother, and 7 HRQoL items with associated bother. A further 8 unscored symptom items and one overall HRQL item were retained for their clinical utility. Sensitivity of the ICIQ-UAB to the severity of the condition was supported (known groups validity), and correlations with concurrent PROMs were as expected, showing evidence of construct validity. All domains demonstrated reliability (Cronbach's α ≥ 0.88). Limited evidence for responsiveness was found, which was likely due to insufficient efficacy of trial medication treatment over administration time-points. The two scored domains and associated bother for the ICIQ-UAB have been shown to be reliable, valid and sensitive to the severity of the condition. The instrument can be recommended to researchers and clinicians for the comprehensive assessment of symptoms and their impact on HRQoL on patients with suspected UAB. [Abstract copyright: © 2025 Wiley Periodicals LLC.
Predefined time control of state-constrained multi-agent systems based on command filtering
Get PDFThis paper resolves the predefined-time control problem for multi-agent systems under predefined performance metrics and state constraints, addressing critical limitations of traditional methods—notably their inability to enforce strict user-specified deadlines for mission-critical operations, coupled with difficulties in simultaneously guaranteeing transient performance bounds and state constraints while suffering prohibitive stability proof complexity. To overcome these challenges, we propose a predefined performance control methodology that integrates Barrier Lyapunov Functions command-filtered backstepping. The framework rigorously ensures exact convergence within user-defined time independent of initial conditions while enforcing strict state constraints through time-varying BLF boundaries and further delivers quantifiable performance such as overshoot below 5% and convergence within 10 s. By eliminating high-order derivative continuity proofs via command-filter design, stability analysis complexity is reduced by 40% versus conventional backstepping. Stability proofs and dual-case simulations (UAV formation/smart grid) demonstrate over 95% tracking accuracy under disturbances and constraints, validating broad applicability in safety-critical multi-agent systems
Moving towards better risk assessment for invertebrate conservation
Get PDFGlobal change threatens a vast number of species with severe population declines or even extinction. The threat status of an organism is often designated based on geographic range, population size, or declines in either. However, invertebrates, which comprise the bulk of animal diversity, are conspicuously absent from global frameworks that assess extinction risk. Many invertebrates are hard to study, and it has been questioned whether current risk assessments are appropriate for the majority of these organisms. As the majority of invertebrates are rare, we contend that the lack of data for these organisms makes current criteria hard to apply. Using empirical evidence from one of the largest terrestrial arthropod surveys to date, consisting of over 33 000 species collected from over a million hours of survey effort, we demonstrate that estimates of trends based on low sample sizes are associated with major uncertainty and a risk of misclassification under criteria defined by the IUCN. We argue that even the most ambitious monitoring efforts are unlikely to produce enough observations to reliably estimate population sizes and ranges for more than a fraction of species, and there is likely to be substantial uncertainty in assessing risk for the majority of global biodiversity using species-level trends. In response, we discuss the need to focus on metrics we can currently measure when conducting risk assessments for these organisms. We highlight modern statistical methods that allow quantification of metrics that could incorporate observations of rare invertebrates into global conservation frameworks, and suggest how current criteria might be adapted to meet the needs of the majority of global biodiversity
Assessing migration of bat species and interactions with Offshore Wind Farms in British Waters
No full textEvidence gaps remain on the occurrence of bats in the offshore environment and their potential interactions with renewable developments.Through a desk-based literature review, a review of existing data sets, and engagement with international projects through two online workshops this study presents cutting edge data and best practice.Based on the data, Nathusius’ pipistrelle are the most commonly recorded species offshore and are considered a regular migrant to the British Isles. Surveys in the English Channel have recorded both common and soprano pipistrelle. There is some limited evidence to suggest that long distance migratory Nyctalus spp. such as N. noctula and N. leisleri may also migrate between the British Isles and Europe or Scandinavia.Tagging, radio-tracking and acoustic surveys indicate that Nathusius’ movement across the Southern-North Sea peaks during the autumn (August to October) and spring (April to May) migration windows. Though exact routes are not known, migration can be linked to environmental variables such as wind speed and air temperature.The report outlines the pros and cons of different monitoring techniques and mitigation methods, outlines existing and upcoming guidance and best practice, highlights remaining evidence gaps and includes recommendations for future work in this emerging field
Bioelectrical synchronization of Picea abies during a solar eclipse
Get PDFRegular light–dark cycles greatly affect organisms, and events like eclipses induce distinctive physiological and behavioural shifts. While well documented in animals, plant behaviour during eclipses remains largely unexplored. Here, we monitored multiple spruce trees to assess their individual and collective bioelectrical responses to a solar eclipse. Trees anticipated the eclipse, synchronizing their bioelectrical behaviour hours in advance. Older trees displayed greater anticipatory behaviour with early time-asymmetry and entropy increases. These results reveal a relationship between trees, shaped by individual age and physiology as well as collective history. This highlights the significance of synchrony in plants, offering new insights into coordinated behaviours in nature