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Geopolitical risk and bond market dynamics: Assessing the impact of threats and realized events
Get PDFThis study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on global bond markets, with a focus on distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events. Using daily data, the study applies a multi-method framework comprising the time-varying parameter vector autoregression connectedness framework, wavelet quantile correlation, and cross-quantilogram analysis to investigate dynamic spillovers, asymmetric relationships, and lead-lag dependencies between geopolitical risk categories and bond markets. Our findings show that bond markets exhibit pronounced sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, with threat-based risks exerting a more persistent and widespread impact than realized geopolitical events. Sovereign and corporate bonds emerge as particularly vulnerable, whereas alternative fixed-income instruments such as sukuk and municipal bonds demonstrate greater resilience. Although bonds are often viewed as long-term safe-haven assets, their short-term hedging effectiveness varies considerably across segments and risk types. Notably, sukuk consistently serve as a reliable safe-haven during periods of elevated geopolitical threat. Our results underline the complexity of geopolitical risk effects, illustrating the importance of distinguishing between geopolitical threats and realized geopolitical events for understanding investor behaviour, risk premiums, and asset pricing dynamics. This study contributes to the literature by offering new insights into the resilience of different bond segments to geopolitical shocks and providing valuable implications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and investment strategies during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty
Scale-dependent analysis of structure and electrical activity in kombucha mats and proteinoid-actin assemblies
No full textThis study examines, in detail, the scale-dependent properties and activity patterns in two systems: kombucha cultures and proteinoid-actin networks. These systems have complex features. Our analysis shows that their self-similarity may not be a true fractal at all scales. The kombucha pellicle is not fractal in shape. However, it shows electrical activity with a fractal-like pattern. In contrast, proteinoid-actin assemblies have hierarchical clustering. But they lack consistent self-similarity at different scales. Both systems show nonlinear thermosensory responses. Temperature changes induce complex behavioural and structural changes. The electrical activity in kombucha cultures shows chaotic dynamics. It is sensitive to initial conditions and has self-organized criticality. This study on kombucha cultures and proteinoid-actin networks offers new insights. It highlights the key difference between fractal-like patterns and true fractal geometry in biological systems. The research shows that complex organization and varying electrical activity can occur without self-similarity at every scale. It distinguishes true fractal organization from complex hierarchies in biological and prebiotic systems. These findings enhance our understanding of complex biology. They may contribute to our understanding of biomimetic materials science and synthetic biology. This is especially true for the role of electrical activity patterns in self-organizing systems
A multi-level examination of performance in innovation ecosystems: Board, asset scale, technology, and government support
Get PDFWe investigate how the firm’s board structure (i.e. CEO duality or independence) and its asset scale at the micro level, the industry’s technological intensity at the meso level, and the government's initiatives at the macro level influence firms’ digital innovation performance in the innovation ecosystem of the Chinese manufacturing industry. Drawing on a longitudinal study of 1,098 firms sourced from the CSMAR database, we utilise a co-evolutionary multi-level model for the exploration. Our findings reveal that firms led by independent board members with largescale assets and that have received government subsidies are more likely to achieve superior digital innovation performance. Furthermore, the impact of micro-level factors varies with technological intensity, with medium and high-tech firms showing more significant innovation performance improvements. We suggest that firms maintain a board composition with a balanced mix of independents with objective oversight and non-independents with strategic influence and allocate their resources to capitalise on emerging technological trends to perform better in innovation ecosystems. Firms should not solely depend on government support but align their resource basis and governance structures to leverage technology and incentives effectively. Policymakers should craft targeted initiatives depending on the innovation ecosystems’ technological intensity and the firms' resource endowments
“Looking at the big picture”: A qualitative study of ethics in science communication and engagement
Get PDFEthical issues arise in many communication and engagement settings. Such issues can, however, fall into the gaps between what is seen as “research” and what is seen as “dissemination.” Semi-structured interviews ( n = 17) and focus groups ( n = 2) with researchers and science communication and public engagement specialists at U.K. academic institutions and in practice settings suggest that while normative principles for ethical science communication remain fluid, ethical questions are often an area of considerable reflection for those communicating, particularly when they reflect wider social issues and different people in the process: communities, researchers, and institutions
User-centered design of Internet of Robotic Things (IoRT) for people living with dementia
No full textAs the population of persons living with dementia (PwDs) continues to rise, technological advancements offer an unprecedented opportunity to enhance their independence and quality of life while lowering the burden on the caregivers. Notably, the Internet of Things (IoT) has demonstrated significant assistive potential, yet it has some inherent limitations, such as a lack of physical embodiment and mobility capabilities. These are vital characteristics that robotics uniquely provide making it is an ideal complement to IoT. However, the potential of dementia-specific applications that integrate the strengths of IoT and robotics remain largely underexplored in current research. Hence, this work presents a proof-of-concept Internet of Robotics Things (IoRT) system for PwDs based on participatory design sessions with dementia care professionals (DCPs). The system includes capabilities such as personalised reminders for drinking and medication-taking activities and memory exercises for cognitive stimulation. An initial evaluation of the system by DCPs was used to formulate further core design recommendations for an IoRT platform tailored for PwDs. This includes incorporating lucidity detection and a private cloud for data management
Negotiated, approved … ignored? Regulating development after approval in England and Germany
No full textDelivery and enforcement have received comparatively less attention in planning practice and research than plan making and the granting of development rights. Once planning permission has been granted or a binding land use plan has been approved, the planning process is usually considered complete. However, most planning systems allow for adjustments after this stage. Research on planning practice post approval is particularly scarce: both theoretically and empirically. This paper explicitly addresses this by defining post-consent planning: an arena for action after a plan or permission has been granted. It draws on empirical evidence from studies of development management practice in both England and Germany to explore how and why schemes change post-approval, the relationship between key players at this stage, and the differences and similarities between zonal style and discretionary based planning systems in handling post-consent change where they occur. Whilst there are far more deviations from binding land use plans in Germany than would be expected, these changes were more modest than in the English discretionary system, where renegotiation of consents is the norm. However, questions about planning culture and the perceived legitimacy of the changes arise, adding complexity to debates about the relative efficacy and operation of these two types of planning systems as well as highlighting the importance of further research into this ‘post-consent’ space
Estimating household water storage from images: A machine learning approach
Get PDFWhilst much research focusses on challenges related to achieving SDG 6.1 (universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water), there has been less attention to challenges of safe transport, storage and use of collected water. In particular, there are relatively few high-quality datasets quantifying the number and volume of water containers used by households for such purposes. This paper reports results from the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to a database of images of domestic water storage collected during 2022 as part of an initiative to improve water supply in southern Bangladesh. Because the number of different water container types was relatively small, it was possible to train an ML algorithm to identify water containers and estimate water storage with greater than 90% accuracy. These results have allowed the rapid creation of a unique high-quality, high-resolution dataset describing water storage quantitatively in a study community. This dataset includes data quantifying the number of vessels as well as their individual and aggregated water storage volumes. The paper discusses policy implications for the study location specifically before concluding with suggestions for the inclusion of this sort of analysis in ongoing studies of household and community scale water insecurity
Bio-inspired cryptography based on proteinoid assemblies
Get PDFWe present an innovative cryptographic technique inspired by the self-assembly processes of proteinoids—thermally stable proteins that form spontaneously under prebiotic conditions. By emulating the deterministic yet complex interactions within proteinoid assemblies, the proposed method generates secure encryption keys and algorithms. We measure the unique electrical properties of proteinoid microspheres. Their capacitance values range from –656.6 to 434.9 nF. Then, we convert these measurements into encryption keys using the formula ki=(⌊|Ci|·100⌋mod256). The approach harnesses the inherent unpredictability of proteinoid behavior to create a robust and adaptable encryption framework resilient to cryptanalytic attacks. The encryption process uses modular multiplication: ej=(mj · ki)mod256. This changes plaintext into ciphertext. The security relies on electrical signatures that depend on the composition. Experimental results show that this bio-inspired system aligns with contemporary encryption standards, offering significant benefits in key generation and distribution. Our implementation has a linear computational complexity of O(n). It offers security levels ranging from 8 to 128 bits, based on composition. Additionally, it is energy efficient, performing about 200 operations per joule. Statistical analysis further affirms the high randomness of the generated keys, highlighting the potential of biological processes in advancing cryptographic security
Developing and implementing a public health and criminological approach to tackling sexual abuse
Get PDFA briefing paper for policy and practice about EpiCrim approaches to the prevention of sexual abuse
Imperfect Index
No full textImperfect Index is a call to redirect graphic design’s established norms and defaults. The second volume weaves together plural, political, and porous perspectives, exploring how queerness, class, race, care, and spirituality intersect with design practice. Built on resistance and tenderness, it reimagines what design education and publishing can be.As its title suggests, imperfect index embraces imperfection as strength, a living archive that values care over ego. Volume 02 features contributions from Y Papur Wales’ Ol Gabe, OOMK’s Rose Nordin, Queer.Archive.Work’s Paul Soulellis, Sticky Fingers Publishing’s Kaiya Waerea, and more. The publication gathers essays, transcripts, and design work that challenge graphic design’s traditional boundaries—addressing nationality, class, community, non-human perspectives, and spirituality