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Использование реанализа ERA5–Land и данных метеостанций в горных районах России для оценки изменения ледниковых систем Восточной Сибири и Дальнего Востока
Get PDFThis work involving the study of changes in the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is a continuance of the glaciological parameters of mountain systems investigation. The article explores the possibility of using new generation climate archives (in this case, ERA5–Land) together with weather station data on temperature and precipitation, in order to assess the climate dependence of the glacial system ELA in hard-to-reach and insufficiently studied mountain regions of the Russia Asian part. The ERA5–Land reanalysis reproduces temperature (values, dynamics, and trends) quite well in mountain systems. The use of total precipitation is possible only for assessing their dynamics and trends. The relative error for temperature trend is below 20% in both positive and negative sides, and precipitation is less than 30% in the negative one. Positive temperature trends of different intensity are observed in all mountains of the Russia Asian part with a maximum in the mountain systems of the Arctic zone. Minimal temperature trends are distinctive for coastal mountain regions of temperate latitudes. Summer temperature trends are maximum in inland areas and minimum in coastal mountain areas. The increase in precipitation in such areas occurs mainly at the expense of the cold period. It was revealed there was an increase of the glacial systems ELA from 50 to 800 m in the mountain regions of the Asian North Russia within 1966–2021. The value of the ELA rise coincides with areas of high temperature trends and may not correspond to precipitation negative trends.Исследуется возможность совместного использования реанализа ERA5–Land и станционных данных для оценки высоты границы питания ледниковых систем. ERA5–Land хорошо воспроизводит температуру и удовлетворительно тренды осадков. Положительные температурные тренды разной интенсивности наблюдаются во всех горных районах. Наблюдаемое увеличение высоты границы питания ледников совпадает с областями высоких температурных трендов
Расчёт и прогноз ледникового питания в речных бассейнах
Get PDFA two-stage method has been developed for calculating and forecasting the annual volumes of glacial runoff feeding mountainous rivers. At the first stage, the series of morphological characteristics of glaciers are reconstructed using limited data from regional glaciation monitoring. An example of a numerical description and analysis of the annual reconstructed dynamics of glaciation parameters in the upper Rhone River (Switzerland) is presented. Similar results of reconstruction of annual values of the morphological characteristics were obtained for the basins of tributaries of the Terek River (North Caucasus) and the Western Kyzylsu River (Pamir). At the second stage, the calculation and forecast of the time series of the average summer air temperature Ts(Zmean) at the height of Zmean is performed, which is used as an argument for determining the ablation layer by the formula Ab = f(Ts) on the glaciation area Fgl. The annual vertical profiles of mean air temperature of April T4 = T4(Z), summer ones Ts = Ts(Z), and formulas for calculating Ts as a function of T4 are constructed and used for the calculations. Thus, on a regional scale, it was established for the first time that the April air temperature T4 allows calculating a thickness of the annual ablation layer Ab = f(Ts) with a month earliness the forecast at the average height Zmean of the glacier. The reconstructed Fgl(t) series is used to obtain annual volumes of glacial alimentation. A regional study of variability of the index of glacial alimentation δ (Schultz, 1965) with time t was carried out using long-period measurements of runoff in the river basins of Eurasia, North America, Central Europe, and Central Asia. The index δ is equal to the ratio between the volumes W of flow or the average water discharges Q for the periods July-September (Q7–9) and March-June (Q3–6).As a result of the analysis of the expression δ = δ(t), it was found that the gradient of the linear trend equation for the δ index in all the above river basins is negative, which is indicative of a reduction in glacial-snow alimentation, or more precisely – in only its glacial component. Notwithstanding this, the annual runoff Qyear decreased only in three basins, and in the others Qyear, increased due to the growth of Q3–6, which overlapped decreasing of Q7–9. Index δ for the upper reaches of the Rhone River turned out to be not only a representative characteristic of changes in the vegetation period and annual runoff of the river, but also an efficient argument for the super-long-range prediction of these variables for 2025–2054 years.Впервые разработан и проверен метод регионального предсказания с месячной заблаговременностью годовой абляции Ab на высоте фирновой границы Zfg = Zmean как функции прогнозируемой средней летней температуры воздуха Ts. Для определения Ts в начале мая установлены региональные зависимости Ts от температуры воздуха апреля T4. Разработан метод прогноза годового и вегетационного стока р. Рона (Швейцария, Альпы) на 2025–2054 гг
Исследования тёртого льда (обзор)
Get PDFThe urgency of brash ice study is growing in connection with intensive shipping in fast ice zone of freezing seas as well as inland waterways. In addition, an important incentive for such studies is the design and construction of port infrastructure in these water areas. The review shows that the main directions of research refer to three main topics. 1) Investigation of morphometrical brash ice characteristics in navigable channels and harbors, their variability under ambient factors. The most well-studied morphometrical parameters of brash ice are relative channel thickness and its distribution over channel width. Size distribution details about brash ice floes are of great interest for researchers. 2) Investigation of porosity and mechanical properties of brash ice as a granular material taking account of freezing between individual ice blocks. In many respects, these parameters determine the pattern of brash ice interaction with ships and the possibility of their movement. 3) Description of consolidated layer formation in brash ice and refinement of predictions for brash ice growth in the water area under consideration depending on the intensity of ship traffic and the number of degree-days with negative temperatures over the time interval between ship passages. Large attention is given to new methods of studies including full-scale and laboratory experiments, as well as the use of ice basins for this purpose, with a brief review of thermal methods for brash ice management. The paper formulates some of the problems yet to solved, which require extra studies.В обзоре рассмотрены основные направления исследований тёртого льда. Основное внимание уделено морфометрическим особенностям тёртого льда в каналах, изучению пористости и прочностных свойств тёртого льда как сыпучей среды, а также процессам формирования консолидированного слоя. Описаны эксперименты по определению свойств тёртого льда в ледовых бассейнах – это новое направление в исследованиях. Сформулированы некоторые не решенные проблемы
Химические характеристики снежного покрова в высокоширотной Арктике (мыс Баранова, остров Большевик, архипелаг Северная Земля)
Get PDFFor the first time, features of the chemical composition of the snow cover during its accumulation on the Bolshevik Island (the area of the research station «Cape Baranov» Ice base») were studied. In winter 2018/19, the following elements density, conductivity, total acidity, pH, NH4+, NO2-, NO3-, PO43-, and Si and, additionally, Na+, К+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, and SO42-, were measured in new and old snow. Regularities of changes in the parameters of these two types of snow with time have been found. New snow is characterized by negative time trends in density, pH, conductivity, and total acidity, and by positive ones – in NO3–. All statistically significant changing parameters of new snow, except NH4+, showed high temporal variability. In the old snow, trends of decreasing NO3– and total acidity and increasing pH with the depth in the snow cover, as well as a positive correlation between NO3– and NH4+ have been revealed, that is not typical for the new snow. It was shown that the ammonium content in the old snow was, on average, 2.8 times higher than in the new one. The influence of different natural and anthropogenic factors on the snow chemical composition on the Bolshevik Island is discussed. We show that the increase in the total acidity of snow up to 0.001–0.014 meq/l in November–June during the young ice formation and then freeze-up could be due to anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur oxides in roughly equal proportions. However, the chemical composition of the studied snow corresponds to the zone of the ecological norm. We compared the chemical composition of snow on the Bolshevik Island with similar characteristics of precipitation in other background regions of the Russian Federation using data of the World Weather Watch of the World Meteorological Organization. It was revealed that the studied snow was more acidic, less mineralized, depleted in sulfates, ammonium, nitrates and contained low electrical conductivity. In comparison with the snow cover on the Golomyanny Island (Severnaya Zemlya), the studied old snow contained minimal amounts of basic ions and was more acidic.Впервые изучены особенности химического состава снежного покрова в период его накопления на о. Большевик (район научно-исследовательского стационара «Ледовая База «Мыс Баранова»). Зимой 2018/19 г. в свежем и слежавшемся снеге измерены удельная электропроводность, плотность, общая кислотность, pH, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, PO43-, Si и, дополнительно, в слежавшемся снеге – Na+, К+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl- и SO42-. Найдены закономерности изменения параметров свежего и слежавшегося снега, обсуждается влияние морских и антропогенных факторов. Проведено сравнение химического состава снега о. Большевик с составом атмосферных осадков и снежного покрова в других фоновых районах Российской Федерации
Многолетняя изменчивость сплочённости льда Белого моря по спутниковым данным
Get PDFThe objectives of this study were to analyze satellite data on the ice conditions in the White Sea available for the period 1979-2021 so that to identify statistically significant trends in closeness of ice during that period, and to establish spatial and temporal characteristics of the sea ice regime in this area. It was found that according to the satellite data a statistically significant negative trend (-0.34±0.11% year-1 at a significance level of 0.05) of the ice closeness changes was observed over the above period for all areas of the sea, which corresponds to the general tendency of reducing the area of the Arctic ice cover due to the global warming. However, contrary to the statements of J.C. Comiso, D.K. Perovich, M.C. Serreze, J. Streve, D. Notz that since the beginning of the XX century the reduction of the ice area in the Arctic Ocean accelerates, no tendency in decrease of mean annual values of the ice closeness for the White Sea was revealed. In addition, the results of the regression analysis showed a slight decrease in the absolute value of the trend from - 0.74±0.38% year-1 in 1979-1996 to -0.47±0.25% year-1 in 1997-2020. It is also shown that the results of a comparative analysis of two trends in the year-to-year variability of ice closeness in the White Sea: the first one obtained from the microwave radiometer data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and the second one revealed from data of advanced microwave scanning radiometers (the University of Bremen), are in good agreement with each other. The difference in the slope coefficients of the linear approximation is only 0.038% year-1 for the period 2002-2020. This is the important argument in support of using microwave radiometer data to determine trends in variability of ice closeness in the White Sea.Выполнены расчёты трендов многолетней изменчивости среднегодовых значений сплочённости льда Белого моря на основе данных спутникового пассивного микроволнового зондирования, предоставленных Национальным центром данных по снегу и льду США за период 1979-2021 гг., а также данных усовершенствованного микроволнового сканирующего радиометра, полученных в Бременском университете в 2002-2020 гг
Химический состав атмосферного аэрозоля арктических районов в летний период 2021 года
Get PDFAtmospheric aerosol is an important characteristic of the state of the atmospheric air, therefore, in the summer of 2021, atmospheric aerosol samples were collected in the expeditions of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences to study the chemical composition (ions, trace elements, polyaromatic hydrocarbons) of aerosols in the Arctic atmosphere. The expeditions were carried out on the research ship (RS) Akademik Mstislav Keldysh in the Kara Sea (83rd cruise, June 18 - July 8, 2021), in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian-Greenland Basin (84th cruise, July 24 - August 26, 2021). It is established that the average total concentration of ions in the aerosol of the Kara Sea is 5.4±1.9 µg/m3, which corresponds to the average data obtained in previous years. In the aerosol of the Barents Sea and the Norwegian-Greenland basin, the average value of 5.0±2.1 μg/m3 was considered as potentially possible for the studied region. Concentrations of such ions as Na+, NH4 + and Cl-dominated in the aerosol composition of all regions. The average total concentration of trace elements in the composition of the aerosol of the Barents Sea and the Norwegian-Greenland basin is 1,5 times higher than in the aerosol of the Kara Sea. The predominant concentrations of trace elements in the aerosol of both study areas were Cr, Zn, Al, Fe. Mo, Sr, Ba, Mn, Sn, Ti, Pb, Cu, Ni. As a result of the calculation of the ranking of trace elements by atmospheric pollution in the aerosol of the Kara Sea, Fe, Cu, Ni, Pb are prioritized, and in the aerosol of the Barents Sea and the Norwegian-Greenland basin - Fe, Cu, Sn, Pb. The level of air pollution with trace elements in both areas is low. 13 compounds of polyaromatic hydrocarbons with an average total concentration of 0.65 ng/m3 in aerosol collected in 83 cruise, and 0.75 ng/m3 in 84 one were identified. Compounds of polyaromatic hydrocarbons with two and three benzene rings (naphthalene, phenanthrene and their homologues) coming from petrogenic sources accounted for 92 and 80% of the total amount of polyaromatic hydrocarbons, respectively. Atmospheric aerosol sampling for the study of chemical composition was carried out under conditions of fog of various densities, with precipitation and destruction of seasonal ice.Выявлены различия и сходство химического состава (ионы, микроэлементы, ПАУ) приводного атмосферного аэрозоля, собранного в летний период 2021 г. по маршрутам экспедиций НИС«Академик Мстислав Келдыш» в районе Карского моря (второй этап 83-го рейса, 18 июня - 8 июля 2021 г.), в Баренцевом море и Норвежско-Гренландском бассейне (84-й рейс, 24 июля - 26 августа 2021 г.)
Дистанционное и радиолокационное исследование ледника Левый Ирбисту (Южно-Чуйский хребет, Республика Алтай)
Get PDFTo determine changes of glacier No. 31 (SU5A15106031), happened in the beginning of the XXI century, satellite images, obtained from the Landsat-7, 8, 9 and Sentinel-2 satellites in different years, were analyzed. As a result, data on the glacier changes were obtained for the period from 2000 to 2022. During this time, the length of the main stream of the glacier decreased by 144 m (6.8%), and the total area of the entire glacier – by 0.089 km2 (9.7%). The rate of retreat of the glacier front varied from 2 to 15 m/year, on average – 6.5 m/year, and the glacier area decreased by on average of 0.004 km2/year. In 2022, the glacier consisted of two separate ice streams, with a total area of 0.823 km2 and a maximum length of 1.955 km. Aerial photography was carried out using a DJI Phantom 4 quadcopter. A high-resolution orthophotoplan (±5 cm), a digital terrain model, a three-dimensional model of the surface of the glacier tongue and adjacent territories, with a total area of 0.25 km2, were made. Radar sounding was performed by the Python-3 georadar in two configurations: at frequencies 50 and 100 MHz. Two cross-sections of the glacier were constructed from the radar data: one was taken at a frequency of 100 MHz, and the second at both – 50 MHz and 100 MHz. The analysis of the radiogram of these profiles made possible to reveal that the larger thickness of the glacier in the study area was measured along the left side of the glacier tongue, the maximum recorded thickness was equal to 66 mНа основе данных ДЗЗ за 2000–2022 гг. выявлено изменение малого ледника № 31 (SU5A15106031), расположенного на Южно-Чуйском хребте Центрального Алтая. За это время ледник сократился на 144 м (на 6.8%) и потерял 0.089 км2 (9.7%) своей площади. Приведены результаты аэрофотосъёмки и радиолокационного зондирования нижней части языка ледника, выполненных в 2022 г
О зависимости процесса ледообразования в Ладожском озере от температуры воздуха
Get PDFThe purpose of the work was to establish regularities of the ice formation in the largest European Lake Ladoga depending on the air temperature. The average daily air temperatures obtained at the Sortavala weather station for thirty years were used for the analysis. The main task was to determine the sums of accumulated average daily air temperatures necessary for the appearance of primary ice phenomena in areas with different depths of the Lake. To solve this problem digitized remote sensing data of the spatial distribution of ice in the fixed cells with known average depth and data on average daily air temperatures were used. For thirty last winters, the dates of the first ice appearance in each of 180 cells were selected, which were related to the accumulated to this date sum of mean daily air temperatures after its steady transition through 0°С towards the negative values. The resulting scheme of the accumulated sums of air temperatures needed for the ice appearance indicates their regular growth with increasing depth. It is assumed that this dependence will make it possible to assess dynamics of ice formation on other lakes.Приведены дистанционные данные о распределении льда на акватории Ладожского озера за последние тридцать зим. По данным метеостанции Сортавала подсчитывались накопления льда после устойчивого перехода через 0°C в сторону отрицательных значений суммы среднесуточных температур воздуха. Получена схема продвижения кромки льда при замерзании озера в зависимости от накопленной суммы среднесуточных температур воздуха
Первые 10Be датировки позднеголоценовых морен ледников Кашкаташ и Ирик, Северный Кавказ
No full textWe present 11 10Be ages of the moraines of the Irik and Kashkatash glaciers that allowed identifying and dating several Late Holocene glacier advances for the first time, including a prominent advance exceeding the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum that occurred at 1.6–1.7 ka at еру Irik Glacier. The advance is dated by the three very close 10Be ages of a moraine (1.57 ± 0.23 ka, 1.63 ± 0.23, and 1.68 ± 0.24 ka) located in the vicinity of the moraines of the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum advance. The advance that occurred at 1.6–1.7 ka might be a possible analogue of the “Historical” stage described earlier in the Caucasus in literature basing at geomorphic evidence, speculations, and analogues with other mountain regions, but not dated. Another possibility is a potential correlation of this advance with the Late Antique Little Ice Age cooling in 536 to ~660 CE. The age of Irik Glacier advance is close to the humid period identified in the Garabashi (Baksan, Elbrus valley) lake sediments at 1500–1700 years BP. The magnitude of the identified glacier advances over the past two millennia was similar. Between the advance of 1.6–1.7 ka and the position of the glacier in 2022 CE the elevation of the Irik Glacier front increased by 520 m from 2490 to 3010 m asl. Four 10Be dates (0.7 + 0.11, 0.72 + 0.11, 0.77 + 0.11 and 0.82 + 0.18 ka) of the lateral moraine of the Kashkatash Glacier constrain the advance of the first stage of the LIA. The advance of the 13th century is also dated by 10Be at the DonguzOrun and Chalaati glaciers located at the Northern and Southern slopes of the Caucasus, respectively. The corresponding cooling in ca 1250–1400 CE is identified in the sedimentary paleoclimatic proxies of Lake Karakel (Teberda valley). A later advance at the Kashkatash Glacier is constrained by only one 10Be date (0.53 ± 0.13 ka) and needs further confirmation. Till deposited between the 1490s and 1640s at the Greater Azau Glacier is close to the date of this advance of the Kashkatash Glacier. A cooling at that time is recorded in the proxies of Karakel Lake sediments (1500–1630 CE). Three other 10Be dates of two earlier advances at 0.25 + 0.04 ka and between 0.14 + 0.03 and 0.16 ± 0.02 ka at Kashkatash Glacier are indirectly supported by tree-ring, lake sediment, 14C, and historical data. Further research and new data is necessary to increase the credibility and accuracy of the dates of glacier advances of the Late Holocene in the Northern Caucasus.Мы представляем 11 датировок морен ледников Ирик и Кашкаташ, выполненных на основе анализа космогенных изотопов (10Be). С помощью космических снимков и карт установлен положение фронта ледника Ирик в 2022, 2015, 1997, 1987, 1957, 1945, 1930-х, 1887-1890 гг. и около 1600 лет назад. Три датировки по бериллию-10 (1.57 ± 0.23, 1.63 ± 0.23, 1.68 ± 0.24 тыс. л.н.), которые имеют близкие значения, позволили впервые идентифицировать морену и определить возраст значительного наступания ледника Ирик, которое произошло около 1600–1700 л.н. Это наступание по своим масштабам превосходило размеры ледника в максимум малого ледникового периода. Морена этого возраста расположена в 260 м от того положения конца ледника, которое было зафиксировано на карте военных топографов в 1887–1890 гг. Между положением фронта в конце XIX в. и мореной, сформировавшейся 1600 л.н., прослеживаются следы размытых моренных валов, возможно, нескольких стадий наступания, в том числе, максимума МЛП. В период между продвижением 1.6–1.7 тыс. лет назад и 2022 г. н.э. высота фронта ледника Ирик увеличилась на 520 м (с 2490 до 3010 м над уровнем моря). У ледника Кашкаташ удалось идентифицировать несколько наступаний путем космогенного датирования береговых морен. Наиболее достоверно датировано наступание между 700 и 800 л.н., для которого получено четыре близкие датировки по бериллию-10 (0.70 ± 0.11, 0.72 ± 0.11, 0.77 ± 0.11, 0.82 ± 0.18 тыс. л.н.) в комплексе морен, расположенных по левому борту долины. К сожалению, положение конечной морены, соответствующей этой стадии наступания, установить не удалось. Эти датировки морены ледника Кашкаташ подтвердили представления о наступании первой фазы малого ледникового периода, которое ранее было датировано по 10Be на южном макросклоне Кавказа у ледника Чалаати (0.67 ± 0.1, 0.79 ± 0.08 тыс. л.н.) (Tielidze et al., 2020). Примерно тот же возраст имеет и морена ледника Донгуз-Орун на северном макросклоне Кавказа, в Приэльбрусье, также датированная по 10Ве (одна дата – 0.77 ± 0.1 тыс. л.н.) (Solomina et al., 2018). Согласно реконструкции условий теплообеспеченности по озерным отложениям оз. Каракель (долина Теберды), на этот период на Кавказе приходится окончание средневекового оптимума и начало малого ледникового периода, маркированное резким похолоданием около 1250 г. н.э. В том же комплексе морен у ледника Кашкаташ датированы наступания 0.53 ± 0.13, 0.25 ± 0.04, 0.16 ± 0.02 и 0.14 ± 0.02 тыс. л.н. Масштабы этих наступаний были примерно одинаковыми. Мы сравнили эти новые датировки с датировками морен по древесно-кольцевыми и лихенометрическим данным. Новые данные о наступаниях малого ледникового периода ледников Кашкаташ и Ирик хорошо согласуются с историческими и биоиндикационными датировками морен малого ледникового периода, полученными ранее. Наступание 1600-1700 лет назад совпадает с периодом повышенной обводненности котловины озера Гарабаши, который выделен по данным стратиграфии и радиоуглеродного анализа отложений озера. Установлено сходство хронологии колебаний ледников Ирик и Кашкаташ за последние 1600 лет с реконструкциями колебаний ледников в Альпах. Наступания ледников 700 и 1600–1700 л.н. несколько превосходили масштабы наступаний максимума МЛП в XIX в., но, в целом, диапазон колебаний ледников в первом и во втором тысячелетии новой эры был сопоставимым, что свидетельствует о сходных по масштабу колебаний климата, их вызывавших
Изменения климата и снежного покрова с точки зрения функционирования горнолыжных курортов России в начале xxi века
Get PDFThe development of winter ski tourism and characteristics of ski resorts in various regions of Russia are closely related to climatic conditions, the most important of which are the presence and duration of snow cover. For the period 2000–2021, a study of snow cover, availability of “optimal ski days” and climatic indicators necessary for artificial snowmaking at ski resorts located in different regions of Russia was performed, using data of the reanalysis ERA5-Land. The characteristics of snow cover and temperature from the reanalysis data were compared with data of the meteorological network. The ERA5-Land data for temperature, precipitation, and snow cover thickness are well synchronized with the observational data, and estimates of the error of trends in air temperature and snow cover depth according to the reanalysis data relative to the station data give satisfactory results. In the conditions of the current climate, the average and maximum thickness of snow cover in all resorts is sufficient for their functioning, but in 2000–2021, a decrease in both the maximum and average values of snow cover is noted in most resorts. The study shows that in terms of snow and weather conditions, the highest mountain resorts of the North Caucasus and Kirovsk (Murmansk region) are the most prosperous, where thickness of the snow cover and duration of its occurrence as well as a significant number of “optimal ski days” sustains stability of the resorts and creates favorable conditions for their further development.Проведено исследование характеристик снежного покрова на горнолыжных курортах по данным реанализа ERA5-Land. Выполнено сравнение характеристик снежного покрова, осадков и температуры по данным реанализа и метеосети. В условиях современного климата средняя и максимальная высота снежного покрова на всех курортах достаточна для их функционирования, но на большинстве курортов наблюдается уменьшение высоты снежного покрова