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How Ready Are Households for Their Retirement? An Empirical Analysis of Saving Behavior
Get PDFThis report presents the results of research conducted as part of the Research Project entitled “How Ready Are Households for Their Retirement? An Analysis of Saving Behavior” during the Fiscal Year 2018. The main objective of this project was to examine the saving behavior of households using micro data from Japanese household surveys. While public pension programs continue to play an important role in people’s old age saving in most developed countries, the fiscal sustainability of such programs is increasingly being challenged as a result of population aging, and individuals are increasingly being encouraged to take more responsibility for securing their financial wellbeing in old age. It is therefore important to examine how adequately people are preparing for old age and how the retired elderly are coping financially.
The report consists of two chapters. The first chapter looks at one of the puzzles about the saving behavior of the elderly identified in empirical studies, which is that the elderly do not decumulate their wealth as rapidly as predicted theoretically. More specifically, it assesses the relative importance of precautionary saving and bequest motives in explaining the lower than expected rates of wealth decumulation of the retired elderly by estimating the determinants of their wealth decumulation behavior in Japan.
While both precautionary saving and bequest motives are found to be important drivers behind this puzzle, our analysis suggests that precautionary saving plays a relatively important role in explaining the wealth decumulation behavior of the retired elderly, at least in the case of Japan.
The second chapter examines the relationship between marriage and wealth with particular focus on women. By exploiting the availability of data on personal wealth, it assesses whether the wealth effect of marriage differs depending on whether we measure wealth in terms of personal wealth or household wealth. If wealth is measured in terms of equivalized household net worth on the assumption that intrahousehold resources are shared equally within married couples, marriage is generally found to help women accumulate wealth. This raises concern about whether never married women, whose number is on the rise in Japan, are accumulating sufficient wealth for old age. By contrast, if wealth is measured in terms of personal net worth based on the actual ownership of assets, marriage is found to be negatively associated with women’s wealth holdings.
This is largely due to the fact that a relatively small share of household wealth is held in the wife’s name in the case of Japan. These findings underscore the fact that women in Japan are potentially in a financially vulnerable position even after they marry.
We are grateful to the Asian Growth Research Institute (AGI) for its financial support of this research. This work was also supported by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) KAKENHI Grant Numbers 15H01950 and 18H00870 as well as a grant from the MEXT Joint Usage/Research Center at the Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. Furthermore, part of the empirical work undertaken in this report utilizes micro data from the Preference Parameters Study of Osaka University’s 21st Century Center of Excellence (COE) Program “Behavioral Macrodynamics Based on Surveys and Experiments” and its Global COE Project “Human Behavior and Socioeconomic Dynamics.” We acknowledge the program/project’s contributors─Yoshiro Tsutsui, Fumio Ohtake, and Shinsuke Ikeda. We would also like to thank the Yu-cho Foundation and the Panel Data Research Center at Keio University for granting us permission to use data from the Survey on Households and Saving and data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, respectively.
We are grateful to Anton Braun, Jim Been, Erbiao Dai, Isaac Ehrlich, Tatsuo Hatta, Jong-Wha Lee, Kathleen McGarry, Colin R. McKenzie, Oleksandr Movshuk, Masao Ogaki, Hiroshi Ono, Eric D. Ramstetter, Kwanho Shin, Dain Wie, and other participants of the 1st Meeting of the Society of Economics of the Household; the 92nd Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International; the Applied Economics Workshop and Special Workshop at the Institute of Economic Studies, Keio University; the Seminar at the College of Political Science and Economics, Korea University; the ADBI-AGI Workshop on “Public and Private Investment in Human Capital and Intergenerational Transfers”; the Rokko Forum at the Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University; the AGI Staff Seminar; the 16th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association; a conference on “Asian Economic Outlook and Challenges to Growth and Stability” organized by the Asiatic Research Institute of Korea University; a seminar at the East-West Center, the 18th Panel Survey Conference organized by the Panel Data Research Center at Keio University; and the Economics Seminar at the Graduate School of Economics of the University of Toyama for their valuable comments.research repor
Firms and Politicians
Get PDFThis report presents the research results implemented during April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019 of the Research Project on “Firms and Politicians”. The project is to investigate formal firm behavior in response to regional favoritism by top-ranked politicians in Vietnam during 2000 to 2011.
Professor Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University) and I conducted analysis on total employment in formal sector and total number of formal firms located in each of 444 rural districts in Vietnam. During 2000-2011, Vietnam passed 3 political terms. We investigated whether the home district of the top-ranked concurrent politicians would attract more firms and create more formal jobs once the politicians resumed office. We also examined whether this attraction disappeared after the politicians finished the political term.
Our findings suggest that within the home districts of politicians, regional favoritism might be locally efficient because only private sectors respond. However, our findings also suggest that persistent favoritism might keep the districts that are not home to politicians at the lower levels of economic development. The key policy implications and challenges are whether this unbalanced regional growth induced by regional favoritism is tolerable and acceptable to Vietnam as a country. A selection of politicians within the party based on both population and geographical representatives may be an immediate solution.
We thank Tsunehiro Otsuki, Barry Hirsch, Yoko Niimi, Charles Yuji Horioka, Wataru Kureishi, Jack Hou, and participants from 14th International Conference of the Western Economic Association International, 44th Annual Conference of the Eastern Economic Association, 2018 Spring Meeting of the Japanese Economic Association, and the 2018 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society for their valuable comments and suggestions.
This work was supported by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) KAKENHI Grant Number 15H01950, 18K12784, and 18K01580, project grants from the Asian Growth Research Institute, and a grant from the MEXT Joint Usage/Research Center at the Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
We also thank the General Statistics Office of Vietnam for originally conducting the Vietnam Enterprise Survey. We also thank the Minnesota Population Center, the University of Minnesota, and the US National Centers for Environment Information, National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration for allowing us to use the corresponding microdata.research repor
Do Borrowing Constraints Matter for Intergenerational Educational Mobility? Evidence from Japan
Get PDFThis report presents the results of the research conducted under the Research Project entitled ì Inequality of Education: From the Perspective of Intergenerational Transfersî during the Fiscal Year 2017. The main objective of this project was to examine the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment using microdata on Japan. While there has been a steady increase in the level of educational attainment in many developed countries, including Japan, since World War II, we continue to observe the intergenerational persistence of educational attainment. By exploiting unique information on whether children have ever given up schooling for financial reasons and, if they have, which level of schooling they have forgone, this report pays particular attention to the role of borrowing constraints in determining intergenerational educational mobility.
It is hoped that the findings of this research will help policymakers become better informed about the implications of borrowing constraints for intergenerational educational mobility. To reduce the financial burden on parents of childrení s educational expenses, the Japanese government has been making efforts to enhance student scholarship/loan programs, such as the expansion of interest-free loans and the provision of scholarships that do not require repayment, in recent years. The government has also been discussing the possibility of making education, including university education, free of charge. It is hoped that this report sheds light on how effective these ongoing efforts would be to ensure that qualified children would not be deprived of education opportunities for economic reasons.
I am grateful to the A sian Growth Research Institute (AGI) for its financial support of this research. This work was also supported by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) K AKENHI Grant Number 15H01950 and a grant from the M EX T Joint Usage/Research Center at the Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. Furthermore, the empirical work undertaken in this report utilizes micro data from the Preference Parameters Study of Osaka Universityí s 21st Century Center of Excellence (COE) Program ì Behavioral M acrodynamics Based on Surveys and Experimentsî and its Global COE Project ì Human Behavior and Socioeconomic Dynamics.î I acknowledge the program/projectí s contributorsYoshiro Tsutsui, Fumio Ohtake, and Shinsuke Ikeda.
I am also grateful to Erbiao Dai, Isaac Ehrlich, Tomoki Fujii, Tatsuo Hatta, Joel Hellier, Jean Hindriks, Charles Yuji Horioka, Jong-Wha Lee, Xiaonan Sun, K eiko Tamada, Ryuichi Tanaka, Anh Tran, Tien M anh Vu, and other participants of the A sian Development Bank Institute-AGI Workshop on Public and Private Investment in Human Capital and Intergenerational Transfers in Asia, the M acro Seminar at the Department of Economics, K orea University, the Workshop on ì Equity in Educationî at the Catholic University of Leuven, the Rokko Forum at the Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, and the AGI Staff Seminar for their valuable commentsresearch repor
The Impact of Intergenerational Transfers on the Distribution of Household Wealth: An International Comparison
Get PDFIn this paper, we analyze detailed data on intergenerational transfers in four countries (China, India, Japan, and the United States) from the “Preference Parameters Study of Osaka University,” which was conducted in these four countries during all or part of the 2003-2013 period, in order to shed light on the impact of intergenerational transfers on household wealth disparities and on possible reasons for the substantial differences in household wealth disparities among the four countries. Almost all of the evidence we present suggests that intergenerational transfers have a disequalizing impact on household wealth disparities and facilitate the transmission of household wealth disparities from generation to generation in all four countries although the magnitude of these effects varies considerably from country to country. Moreover, the evidence we present suggests that the substantial differences among the four countries in household wealth disparities are due primarily to differences in the strength of bequest motives, the extent to which affluent households are more likely to leave bequests, and the nature of bequest motives (viz., whether they are selfish or altruistic).research repor
Lessons Learned from Applications of IoT at Social Spheres
Get PDFAlthough Taiwan made its well-respected economic achievements at the catch-up period, the country is in transition to innovation-driven economic upgrading, which is recently being promoted by a strategic policy package of so-called the Industrial Transformation Program, focusing on 5+N innovative industries. Unlike the previous focus on modularized intermediate goods in the industrialization stage, the new policy package calls for innovation with strong flavor of cross-fertilization, solution-orientation, software and hardware integration. A key issue of this paper is how a latecomer like Taiwan may innovate in a post catch-up manner, which requires a latecomer country to establish new technological trajectories for innovation in a changing competitive environment where scarce opportunity for imitation is present. The paper sets out to examine the ways in which how Taiwanese firms approach or harness IoT innovations, especially via applications at the social sphere. It seems to present more challenges than IoT applications inside the firm (for example Industry 4.0) for the reason that IoT applications at social sphere are related to the aspects of behavior and social interfaces of the broadly-defined customer space.
As a result, for innovators in Taiwan, they need to address the social interface involved in an appropriate manner. In many cases, they also need compound innovations, especially in conjunction with business models, not just technological innovation alone. Therefore, innovators in Taiwan have to change the way in which they innovate and interact with the changing innovation ecosystems. Especially in the emerging innovative sectors as 5+N innovative industries targeted by the government, the evolving innovation ecosystems are intrinsically international. Based on two intensive case studies, we would like to draw some lessons learned in Taiwan, which may enrich our understanding of factors underlying industrial innovations in the era of the digital economy, especially for latecomer countries in transition.working pape
少子高齢化社会における人口移動に関する研究
Get PDF地域の人口変動は， 出生と 死亡の差である自然変動と ， 転入と 転出の差である社会変動に分解するこ と ができる。 地方の人口減少が解決すべき問題と し て議論さ れているが， 自然増減を人口減少問題から考えるこ と は，すなわち少子化問題・ 低出生率への対策を考えるこ と である。
こ れは長期的な視点を持って取り 組むべき課題出ると 同時に， 地方が独自の努力によって解決する課題であると 同時に， 日本全体の共通目標と し て解決さ れるべき問題でも ある。 一方で，社会増減は転出超過の問題への対策を考えるこ と であり ， 自然増減と 比較すれば地方自治体にと って政策の対象と し て関与し やすい問題である。
人口減少への対策の 1 つに， 都市をコ ンパクト にするこ と が挙げられている。 こ れは， 都市をコ ンパク ト にし 人口が減少し ている地域の人口密度を維持するこ と で， 人口減少による様々な影響を緩和し よう と するも のである。 そのよう な観点から は， 都市の地理的な人口分布を把握し ，その推移を観察すること が重要であろう 。 地域内の人口分布は，出生や死亡はもちろん，地域外と の転入出や地域内での転居によって大きく 変化する。 本研究では， 地域内の人口分布を把握する指標と し て「 人口重心」 を採用し ， 北九州市におけるその推移を把握する。 国勢調査の小地域統計を用いて， 年齢階級別の人口重心の軌跡を求めた結果， 特に門司区および若松区において人口重心が旧市街地から 離れる方向に移動し ており ， 必ずし もコ ンパクト 化し ていると はいえないこ と ， コ ーホート 別の人口重心の軌跡を見ると ， 特に「 20～24 歳」 前後での移動量が最も 大きいこと が各区で共通し ており ， やはり 高校・ 大学の卒業あるいは就職にと もなう 人口移動が地域に与える影響が大きいこ と が分かった。
また， 地方創生の議論において， 東京への一極集中が批判さ れるこ と が多いが， その大きな理由の 1 つは東京の出生率が低いこ と である。 つまり ， 出生率の低い地域に人口が流入するこ と が， 日本の人口減少に拍車をかけていると いう 議論である。 確かに東京都の出生率は低いが， 東京都は日本中の若者を引きつけ， そこ で配偶者のマッ チングを行い， 家族と し て千葉・埼玉・ 神奈川などの周辺県へ送り 出すと いう 機能を持っている。 福岡市も出生率が低いが， 九州においては， 日本における東京都と 同じ 機能を果たし ていると いえる。 すなわち， 九州一円から若者を集め， そこ で配偶者をみつけ， 結婚し 子供が生まれると 福岡都市圏に転居すると いう 人口移動の構図が観察さ れる。 東京都や福岡市の出生率が低いのは， 独身の若者が流入すると と も に， 子供を持つ世帯が流出するこ と が強く 影響し ていると 考えるこ と ができる。 こ のこと から は， 東京都あるいは福岡市は結婚市場と し て機能し ていると いえ， 少子化の解消に貢献し ている面もあると いえ， そのよう な地域に人口が集中するこ と が人口減少を加速さ せると しても ， その効果は割り 引いて考える必要がある。 その一方で出生率の比較的高い北九州市の世帯類型別の転入出状況を確認すると ， 東京都や福岡市のよう な明確な機能は確認できず， むしろ子育て世帯の受け入れ先と し ての可能性があると 思われる。 し かし ながら ， 北九州都市圏の中心都市と し ての機能を高めると いう 観点から すると ， 若者を引きつけ世帯を形成する機能の強化が期待さ れる。research repor
The effects of foreign direct investment on regional growth and productivity
Get PDFTo promote regional economic growth in the current global environment, nations have begun methodically combining internal assets with external capabilities. Against this backdrop, this paper demonstrates how foreign direct investment (FDI) — a major channel for participating in the global production network — influences regional economic development. Its key findings are as follows: 1) Korea has reached the stage where outbound overseas investments outpace inbound FDI, 2) FDI in Korea is heavily concentrated in a handful of regions and in particular the Seoul capital region, 3) inbound FDI has a statistically significant positive impact on regional growth and productivity and 4) outbound foreign investment weighs negatively on regional growth and productivity. The paper concludes by arguing the necessity of utilizing a global perspective in regional policymaking.working pape
日本の都道府県経済のモデル分析
Get PDF公益財団法人アジア成長研究所は，東南アジア諸国を含む東アジア諸国の経済社会発展に関する諸問題を研究し，関連する諸事業を実施し，その研究成果を地元行政や経済界で利用していただくことを目的としています。グローバリゼーションという大きな潮流の中で，東アジア諸国においては貿易構造，またそれぞれの企業においては国際的生産体制の再編が行われております。その一方で，グローバリゼーションが地元経済に与える影響も日増しに高まっていくことが予想されます。そのため，東アジア諸国の研究を進めると同時に国内ならびに地元経済の動向についても研究していく必要が生じております。
本調査報告書は，このような地元経済の動向を把握する目的で，平成 29 年度は研究プロジェクト「日本の都道府県経済のモデル分析」を実施しました。研究代表者のこれまでの研究成果を踏まえたうえで，日本の地域経済が浮上するための条件を分析し，その成果をまとめたものです。本プロジェクトにおいては，代表者独自で開発した，他地域の成長モデルを開発し，そこから得られた私見を述べました。
本報告書が，地元北部九州経済の動向を知るための資料として，地元の発展にいささかなりとも貢献できることを願うものであります。research repor
Foreign Multinationals and Vietnamese Firm Exports, 2010-2013
Get PDFThis paper examines the role foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) played in Vietnamese firm exports during 2010-2013. Consistent with patterns observed in commodity export data, MNEs are found to account for the majority of firm exports during this period. Wholly-foreign MNEs (WFs), which accounted for the vast majority of MNE production in Vietnam, accounted for most MNE exports. Both WFs and MNE joint ventures (JV) made larger direct contributions to exports than to production or employment, as observed in other Asian developing economies. There was a strong tendency for WFs to have the highest export propensities (export-turnover ratios) followed by JVs. Manufacturing firms exported over four-fifths of the total in most years. Tobit estimates that controlled for the effects of firm size, capital intensity, liquidity, location, and industry affiliation for manufacturers indicate WFs also had the highest conditional export propensities, followed by JVs, private firms, while export propensities tended to be similar in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms in most industries. Because Vietnam imposes few ownership restrictions on MNEs, these results imply that MNEs generally prefer to export from WFs rather than JVs, and are consistent with previous results for Thailand and Indonesia, for example.working pape
日本における女性の地域間移動パターンと影響要因
Get PDF本研究では，日本の国勢調査のデータを用いて，地域間（都道府県間）の女性の移動パターンとその影響要因を分析した。
年齢別の分析によれば，男性の移動者と同様に，女性の移動者のピークは 20 歳代に現れ，その後移動者の数は徐々に減少する。移動者全体における女性移動者の割合は，20 歳代後半から30 歳代前半ではほぼ半分であるが，40 歳代後半には 30 ％前後へ徐々に低下する。それ以降移動者に占める女性の比率は徐々に上昇し，70 歳代～80 歳代には再び 50 ％に達する。
興味深いことは，30 歳代の女性の都道府県間移動のパターンが，20 歳代の女性の移動パターンとはまったく異なっていることである。2005 年から 2010 年の間に，20 歳代の女性は 3 つの大都市圏（東京圏，大阪圏，名古屋圏），および広域の中心都市を持ついくつかの都道府県（福岡県，宮城県など）へと移動するが，30 歳代の女性は逆に都市圏の中心にある都道府県から周辺の都道府県へと移動する傾向が顕著である。
我々の統計分析によれば，（多くの場合既婚であると思われる）30 歳代の女性の移住パターンは，住宅費や児童教育費などの家族関連要因の影響を受けている可能性が高いのに対し，20歳代女性の移動パターンは，主に高等教育の機会，雇用機会，賃金水準などの他の要因によって影響を受けると思われる。
本研究の分析結果は，日本経済にマイナスの影響を与えている日本の人口減少を止めるために，住宅環境が良好で教育費が安い（特に若い既婚女性とって）魅力的な移住地になるために，地方政府はより多くの努力をすべきであることを示唆している。working pape