Comparative Population Studies (CPoS - E-Journal)
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From ZfB to CPoS: A Dynamic Development in a Challenging Environment
Full text linkThis editorial, written by Norbert F. Schneider, who served as Director of the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) and publisher of Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) from 2009 to 2021, outlines the journal’s transformation during his tenure. Reflecting on the challenges the predecessor Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (ZfB) faced, the strategic decisions made to reimagine the journal are discussed. Key milestones include the rebranding to CPoS, the transition to open access, the shift to an entirely English-language publication, and the adoption of a rolling publication model. Despite challenges, the journal has grown significantly, with increased international recognition and a solid ranking. On its 50th anniversary, the journal’s established position in the academic community of population research and demography is highlighted, emphasizing its commitment to high-quality publications and an efficient editorial process.
* This article belongs to a series celebrating the journal's 50th anniversary
Division of Labour, Fertility Intentions, and Childbearing in Estonia
Full text linkGender Revolution Theory offers a compelling hypothesis about the role of gender equality in contemporary fertility dynamics, suggesting that a more egalitarian division of paid and unpaid labour among couples will enhance childbearing. However, the empirical evidence supporting is weak. This study focuses on the division of labour and asks if couples in which the woman works full-time while also doing most of the housework have lower fertility intentions and parity progression. The study is set in Estonia, which experienced an early transition to full-time female employment, but also a prolonged period with a lack of egalitarianism in household work during the state socialist regime and afterwards. We use two family and fertility surveys conducted in the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s, both with a register follow-up. Applying ordinal and logistic regression models, we analyse both fertility intentions at the time of and actual childbearing in the five years following the surveys. We find that neither the fertility intentions nor the fertility behaviour of full-time employed women is higher in couples with a more equal division of housework, compared with couples in which the woman does most of the housework This finding applies regardless of parity. The conclusions are robust to a number of sensitivity analyses. The results call into question the relevance of division of labour as a factor in explaining socialist and post-socialist fertility behaviour
Ideations and Intentions in the Transition to Adulthood: A Cross-European Comparison
Full text linkIdeations and intentions are important precursors of actual behaviour but are still understudied in the literature on the transition to adulthood. This article provides a descriptive overview of ideations and intentions about the timing of four key events in the transition to adulthood – exit from the parental home, cohabitation, marriage, and parenthood – using cross-national representative data for 33 European countries from the Generations and Gender Survey and European Social Survey. Results show that ideations and intentions about the transition to adulthood are, like behaviours, gendered and display distinctive country differences. The analysis of age-graded ideations and intentions suggests a mismatch between the ideal and actual ages at which key events occur during the transition to adulthood. Young people aged 18 to 34 in Europe consider it ideal to start a non-marital cohabitation, marry, and become parents during their 20s but, on average, experience these events later than their ideal timeline. This mismatch is particularly pronounced among men and for the events of marriage and parenthood
Attitudes Towards Non-Marital Family Forms Among Polish Immigrants in the Netherlands
Full text linkUnderstanding the alignment of Eastern European immigrants’ attitudes with those of their host societies in Western Europe is critical for exploring cultural convergence and divergence, particularly in the context of mass migration and freedom of movement within the European Union (EU). This study examines the extent to which Polish migrants’ attitudes towards non-marital family forms − cohabitation, divorce, and single motherhood − align with those of both their host (Dutch) and sending (Polish) societies, thereby increasing understanding of the challenges involved in cultural assimilation processes in Europe. Using data from the Polish and Netherlands Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) and the Families of Poles in the Netherlands (FPN) survey, we estimate a series of regression models to assess how nativity status influences attitudes towards non-marital family forms. We further examine the role of social integration indicators − such as Dutch language proficiency and usage, post-migration education, and having a Dutch partner − in shaping these attitudes among Polish migrants.
Polish migrants show greater acceptance of cohabitation and divorce than Polish non-migrants, although their attitudes regarding divorce are more aligned with those of Dutch non-migrants than Polish non-migrants. They exhibit less acceptance of single motherhood than both Polish and Dutch non-migrants, and these attitudes are not significantly influenced by social integration factors typically associated with host-country assimilation. Our findings suggest that Polish migrants’ attitudes towards non-marital family forms reflect a mix of assimilation and sui generis adaptation, combining elements of origin and host cultures with views shaped by the unique conditions of migration. This study advances the literature on migrant acculturation by identifying unique patterns of attitudes among Polish migrants in the Netherlands. It also suggests that migrants are at the forefront of cultural encounters, contributing to greater convergence on some, but not all, attitudes across EU member states
How to Write an Article for Comparative Population Studies
Full text linkThis editorial is written by Philip Rees, Professor Emeritus in Population Geography at the University of Leeds, UK, drawing on his experience as external editor for Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) in 2019 and as a writer of research papers for 6 decades. He spent a busy year of emails and reviews at his desk in Leeds as part of the CPoS editorial team, with visits to Wiesbaden for editorial meetings. This experience was good preparation for the necessity of home working in 2020 and 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic. This article provides guidance for aspiring authors of CPoS articles in preparing and revising a submission. The advice includes sticking precisely to the CPoS guidance, writing clear and concise prose, being selective in your citations, focusing on originality and relevance, and responding in full to all issues raised by the reviewers of your paper. Then you will be able to benefit from the online publication of your paper, avoiding the article charges levied by commercial publishers, rapid turnround, meticulous sub-editing, assistance if English is not your native language and wise advice from a succession of external guest editors.
* This article belongs to a series celebrating the journal's 50th anniversary
A Practitioner-Oriented Evaluation of Mortality Forecasting Methods: The Case of Australia
Full text linkPractitioners seeking a suitable mortality model for forecasting population by age and sex are presented with many possible choices from the large and growing academic literature on mortality forecasting. Despite this abundance, there is relatively little practical guidance on selecting the most appropriate models for their needs. This study evaluates the accuracy of mortality forecasting methods and provides guidance on model selection. The evaluation includes eight methods from the StMoMo and demography R packages, and a benchmark extrapolative method based on the Ediev (2008) model. We also consider the accuracy of simple combinations of individual methods. We evaluate models by preparing mortality ‘forecasts’ for Australia for past periods using data obtained from the Human Mortality Database. For each method, we created five sets of 30-year retrospective forecasts and evaluated the accuracy of the forecast mortality rates, life expectancies at birth, and life expectancy at age 65. We also evaluated the accuracy of mortality forecasts in terms of projected total deaths calculated using a pseudo-projection method. The Age-Period-Cohort model from the StMoMo R package, based on the Cairns et al. (2009) implementation, was the standout performer in our evaluation, followed by the benchmark extrapolative method. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of mortality forecasting methods using a variety of metrics, including a new way to evaluate mortality forecasts using a pseudo-projection method. We hope that this evaluation proves useful for practitioners looking to select a mortality forecasting method
Transitions to Motherhood in a Low-Fertility Country: Timing, Type, and Order of Life Course Events
Full text linkThis study analyses the key transitions over the course of a woman’s life: forming a first union, leaving home, economic independence, and employment. It assesses their association with the probability of motherhood in Spain, a low-fertility country. The study focuses on the timing of these transitions and their particular conditions, as well as the order in which they occur. Data for the analysis are taken from the 2018 Fertility Survey (N = 7,819) conducted by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. We have applied event history models, specifically discrete-time logistic regression models.
The study reveals varying relationships between life transitions and motherhood, emphasizing the relevance of both the order and specific characteristics of each transition. Forming a union is the main transition associated with motherhood, being moderated by the type of union, its stability, and by economic and employment circumstances. Leaving the parental home also shows a strong association with the likelihood of motherhood, although it also appears to be mediated by the woman’s economic, union, and employment status. Finally, access to employment favours motherhood, albeit to a lesser extent than the other life transitions
Comparative Population Studies at Fifty: Views on the Past, Present, and Future
Full text link The 50th volume of Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) is a significant milestone in the journal’s history, offering us the opportunity to reflect on its development into a key platform for population research, major achievements, and future aspirations. Besides a retrospective, we present a forward-looking perspective, outlining our vision for the journal’s trajectory in an ever-changing scientific landscape. Furthermore, we offer insights from 50 years of CPoS, including the total number of submissions, the geographic origins of our authors, and an analysis of the journal’s most downloaded articles. This editorial is the first in a series accompanying CPoS volume 50 in our anniversary year. Further editorials by former CPoS editors, publishers, and authors will follow, giving an overview of the editorial processes, guiding principles, and strategic considerations that have and will continue to shape the journal’s identity and impact.
* This article belongs to a series celebrating the journal's 50th anniversary
The Impact of Migration on Population Ageing in Asia 1990-2020: A Decomposition Analysis Using Prospective Age
Full text linkPopulation ageing has become a global trend, which unfolds at different speeds across world regions and countries. In Asia, there are countries with rapidly ageing populations and those that continue to maintain a younger age structure. One potential driver of this difference is international migration. In this study, I assess the impact of migration on population ageing in Asian countries over the period 1990-2020. To do so, I propose a refined decomposition method, applying a prospective view on population ageing that accounts for variation in life expectancy. Using data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022, changes in the prospective old-age dependency ratio in 51 countries are decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, deaths, changes in life expectancy and net migration. The results reveal that cohort turnover and deaths have had the largest impact on changes in the prospective old-age dependency ratio over the last three decades, whereas the impact of international migration and changes in life expectancy was smaller in all countries. However, in countries with either highly negative or highly positive net migration, the effect of migration on the age structure is substantial. As migration largely occurs at younger ages, high immigration has decelerated or even halted the process of population ageing in countries such as Bahrain, Macao, Oman and Singapore. The opposite effect is observed in emigration countries such as Armenia, Georgia and Timor-Leste. Hence, the large differences in the current level of population ageing across Asian countries can at least partly be attributed to international migration in the last decades