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Collective dynamics of behaviourally-motivated energy peak moderation
No full textManaging peak loads from uneven daily demand is critical for modern national grids. Most approaches address this from technical, financial or other individual perspectives. While the multidimensional nature of energy demand is recognised among researchers and industry, the dynamics and drivers of individual and collective behaviours needed to protect infrastructures are not fully understood. At the residential level, studies lack analysis of the complex mix of social and individual motivations behind energy management decisions. Moreover, research concentrates on consumption reduction, showing decreasing marginal impact long term. This work addresses this gap by modelling household energy demand dynamics emphasising three combined motivations: social identity, household energy practices and individual constraints. The proposed agent-based model integrates reference theory, empirical data from Bristol and Glasgow households, and UK statistics. The approach considers household awareness of energy challenges, members’ routines and the role of community identity in energy-related decisions. The dynamics are analysed considering time-of-use variations, revealing adaptation behaviours with potential for consistent long-term response. Extensive simulations and sensitivity analysis show distinct effects of household profiles on demand patterns, with strong social identity provoking firm collective response reflected in rapid demand adaptation to community needs. The model enables exploration of energy demand dynamics within communities and evaluation of factors promoting consistent behaviours that contribute to grid peak load moderation
Expedient discovery of a metallaphotoredox cyanomethylation for synthesizing α-aryl nitriles
No full textThe α-aryl nitrile motif is a valuable pharmacophoric feature in medicinal chemistry. However, current synthetic methods to prepare this moiety frequently employ harsh reaction conditions, highly toxic cyanide reagents, or have a limited substrate scope. To address this, a mild photocatalytic cyanomethylation reaction was developed, employing an iridium/nickel metallaphotoredox system in conjunction with supersilanol, cyclopropyl bromide and a mild base, and blue light. To identify a robust set of conditions to efficiently couple acetonitrile to a range of aryl bromides, extensive High-Throughput Experimentation (HTE) was first applied. Subsequently, Design-of-Experiments (DoE) scoping and then screening experiments were performed to identify significant factors and interactions. Due to evidence of non-linear effects, this was followed by an optimization experiment using a central composite design. Finally, to confirm the conditions identified, a robustness DoE study was performed. The methodology demonstrated tolerance to a variety of functional groups, and was applicable to a range of medicinally-relevant building blocks through library synthesis. The reaction was also applied to the multigram preparation of a key anti-cancer Senexin intermediate, which shortened the synthetic route and obviated the need for a cyanide reagent
How to measure the effectiveness of healthcare providers acting as an 'anchor institution' : a case study of the NHS in Greater Manchester, England
Full text linkObjectives: To improve social determinants of health, healthcare organisations can support societal and economic goals in their role as anchor institutions (large organisations with an important presence and ties to a place). In England, the National Health Service (NHS) Long Term Plan highlighted the role of the NHS as an Anchor. Despite a clear policy mandate on this, less is known about specific indicators to measure and benchmark anchor performance. A set of metrics was developed to quantify anchor activity using the Greater Manchester (GM) region in England as a case study. Design: Descriptive cross-sectional study. Setting: Data were received on employment and procurement for the financial year 2022/2023 from NHS trusts located in GM. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Performance against two anchor metrics, local spending and employment, was assessed. ‘Local’ was defined as the Integrated Care Board (ICB) footprint in which the trusts are located. The proportion of procurement spend to the local economy was derived from procurement data. Employment data was aggregated by ethnicity codes and deprivation levels and compared with ICB-level ethnicity and deprivation profiles using the Index of Multiple Deprivation based on 2021 Census data. Results: The included trusts employed 65 597 residents of GM and spent £389 million on local procurement, demonstrating their importance as anchor organisations. Considerable variation was observed between trusts in local spending, ranging from 6.4% (95% CI 6.4% to 6.41%) to 52.7% (95% CI 52.69% to 52.72%) (with the mean at 21%). The percentage of locally employed staff ranged from 82.7% (95% CI 81.45% to 83.90%) to 89.5% (95% CI 89.12% to 89.95%). All trusts demonstrate strong workforce representation from minoritised ethnic groups, but most employed a lower proportion of staff from the most deprived areas than expected based on the local population profile. Conclusions: It is feasible to quantify aspects of anchor activity using routine NHS data, and meaningful variation exists across trusts, even within a single health system. GM provides a useful case study, but further work is needed to embed anchor metrics in routine reporting and to extend measurement to other domains such as estates and sustainability
Prototyping a tool to layer lived experience narratives onto systems maps
Full text linkSystems mapping approaches have attracted international interest for their value to policy actors. However, the maps they create can seem impersonal and disconnected from the lived experience of the communities that policy actors serve. This paper introduces our prototype tool designed to bring systems mapping, research evidence on causal connections, and lived experience narratives together. Our inspiration came from Community Panels of people with lived experience of health inequalities, who felt that evidence-based causal maps de-personalised the issues, and jettisoned subjective, emotive experiences, especially those of marginalised groups. We share images of the layered mapping tool, document and reflect on the process of creating it, and report early feedback workshops with policymakers and Community Panel participants on how far this practice-based innovation succeeds in bridging lived experience and policy-facing systems mapping
Do CEOs with a financial background matter for the success of newly public firms?
Full text linkWe uncover strong evidence that newly public firms run by financial expert chief executive officers (CEOs) have a lower probability of involuntary delisting and a longer survival time in the aftermarket. This result is robust to alternative definitions of long-term viability and endogeneity concerns. Our cross-sectional analysis reveals that the positive effect of financial expert CEOs on initial public offering (IPO) survival is more pronounced in large and complex firms but weaker in dynamic settings. Additional tests show that CEOs with a career background in finance gain better access to the primary equity market than other domain experts, as evidenced by a more efficient price discovery process and greater financial visibility in the aftermarket. Furthermore, these CEOs are associated with more efficient post-IPO outcomes which lie at the core of their skills set, such as capital expenditures and acquisitions, rather than research and development (R&D) projects, which are typically outside their domain of expertise
Practical primary thermometry via alkali-metal-vapour Doppler broadening
No full textDoppler-broadening thermometry (DBT) can be used as a calibration-free primary thermometer suitable for practical applications, e.g. reliably measuring temperatures over long periods of time in environments where sensor retrieval for recalibration is impractical. We report on our proof-of-concept investigations into DBT with alkali-metal-vapour cells, with a particular focus on both absorption and frequency accuracy during scans. We reach sub-kelvin temperature accuracy, and experimental absorption-fit residuals below 0.05%, in a simple set-up. The outlook for portable, practical devices is bright, with clear prospects for future improvement. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue ‘The redefined kelvin: progress and prospects’
Might tidal range schemes change the local economic impact dial on renewable electricity generation?
Full text linkThis paper argues that potential future tidal range schemes (TRS) across the UK could change the local economic development dial. Previous renewable electricity generation developments in less economically advantaged parts of the UK have had limited local economic development effects. However, the characteristics of tidal range schemes in terms of technology and construction needs could make for more significant local economy impacts. We structure the review around the potential connections between the development of TRS and local economic development and then framing the dynamic impacts of TRS construction/operations activity in terms of the development of a UK/local supply chain and associated trade development. We finally consider how public interventions might work to improve the economic development prospects of TRS. An identified concern is that the leverage of socio-economic returns from TRS will not be automatic. There has to date been limited progression in the UK to explicitly link the availability of subsidies to socio-economic outcomes in areas surrounding the electricity generation infrastructure. The review reveals that to lever the socio-economic outcomes from future TRS that closer public private partnerships will be needed during the development of the infrastructure
Evaluation of signal disturbance and recovery in phased array ultrasonic inspection during welding
No full textLack of sidewall fusion (LOSWF) is a critical defect in arc welding that compromises structural integrity, especially in multi-pass welds where buried discontinuities require highly advanced volumetric imaging techniques for detection. Traditional non-destructive testing (NDT) methods are often unable to identify such defects until fabrication is complete, increasing rework rates and overall build time. This study presents a novel approach, combining in-process ultrasonic imaging with controlled experimentation to enable LOSWF detection capability during welding. An experimental setup is introduced in which a static phased array probe is positioned ahead of the welding torch, allowing B-scan acquisition in real-time, during welding. Characteristic signal loss is observed prior to sidewall fusion, followed by echo recovery upon solidification—providing a dynamic indicator of fusion status, with a distinct amplitude drop from 60 to 0%, highlighting the binary nature of the monitoring. To benchmark detection limits, artificial LOSWF flaws were introduced into single-layer welds and evaluated using a roller probe configuration. In addition, experiments were performed to analyze signal degradation and recovery due to thermal disturbance, captured through C-scan sidewall echo analysis. The results demonstrate that ultrasonic imaging deployed during welding can offer both predictive and confirmatory information about fusion quality. This integrated approach provides a foundation for automated, embedded weld inspection systems that can identify fusion defects earlier in the process chain
Digital preservation training needs in cultural heritage institutions : a systematic review and conceptual framework
Full text linkDigital preservation may enable long term access, recurring value, use, and reuse of cultural heritage digitized and digital born resources. Amongst other factors, the success and sustainability of digital preservation practices hinge on how cultural heritage institutions address practitioners' training needs, particularly in countries like Saudi Arabia where digital preservation is a relatively new area. Addressing these needs requires relevant formal and informal training, policies and collaboration with appropriate stakeholders. Increasingly more advanced approaches have been implemented to support digital preservation efforts for heterogeneous and complex cultural heritage resources. Extant studies provide insights into digital preservation training needs at international and national level. However, findings from previous work highlighted inconsistencies, challenges, and knowledge gaps attributable to the use of different methodologies, adoption of different terminologies, and examining digital preservation in varied contexts and maturity levels. This systematic review explores the current state of digital preservation training for librarians and archivists, both internationally and in Saudi Arabia, reviewing 117 studies to identify knowledge gaps and help develop a conceptual framework for improving practitioners' skills in digital preservation
Fast, order-invariant Bayesian inference in VARs using the eigendecomposition of the error covariance matrix
Full text linkBayesian inference in Vector Autoregressions (VARs) involves manipulating large matrices which appear in the posterior (or conditional posterior) of the VAR coefficients. For large VARs, the computational burden of these manipulations can render empirical work impractical. In response to this, many researchers transform their VARs so as to allow for Bayesian estimation to proceed one equation at a time. This leads to a massive reduction in the computational burden. This transformation involves taking the Cholesky decomposition for the error covariance matrix. However, this strategy implies that posterior inference depends on the order the variables enter the VAR. In this article we develop an alternative transformation, based on the eigendecomposition, which does not lead to order dependence. Beginning with an inverse-Wishart prior on the error covariance matrix, we derive and discuss the properties of the prior it implies on the eigenmatrix and eigenvalues. We then show how an extension of the prior on the eigenmatrix can allow for greater flexibility while maintaining many of the benefits of conjugacy. We leverage this flexibility to extend the prior on the eigenvalues to allow for stochastic volatility. The properties of the eigendecomposition approach are investigated in a macroeconomic forecasting exercise involving VARs with 20 variables
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