Prizren Social Science Journal
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Personal Loan Sales Forecasting Through Time Series Analysis
Full text linkAlmost all state enterprises and private sector companies try to foresee future expectations. From the viewpoint of economic, productive, and efficient business management, this is highly important. By making rational decisions, all enterprises aim to rich maximum profitability by taking sales, cost, human resource needs, profits into account. For this reason, enterprises have to make reliable and reasonable forecasts to take the right decisions.Â
Such forecasts might be used in budgeting, cost, and profit analysis. Forecasted scenarios might come true in the future with a great likelihood. The researcher utilizing time series analysis assumes that all findings that come out will be almost the same happened in the past.
Analyzing the time series consist of four aims such as defining, modeling forecasting, and controlling. To define a series, it is needed to compute definitional statistics and to draw its graphic. The second purpose of analyzing the time series is to find the appropriate model of the time series.
With that work called “Time series and application to sale dataâ€, it is tried to make a suitable guess model by analyzing the data of personal loans of a bank 2004-2010 sale data based on unit. During the stagnation stage of the sequence correlogram and root, analyses are performed. The sequence is analyzed with the help of the Eviews 5,1 program. At the end of the survey, it is seen that natural logarithmic personal loan sale sequences are at their level and in the first gap it is not constant and it is also seen that when the second gap is taken, the constant is obtained. The sequence of which the second gap is taken is shown based on time-way graphs and correlogram. When the constant is provided, the guessed model is formed by taking the second gap. The suitability of the model is observed by the correlogram, Akaike information criteria (AIC), and Schwarz information criteria (SIC) merits.Tüm kamu kurumlarının ve özel sektör kuruluÅŸlarının geleceÄŸe yönelik tahminde bulunması özellikle etkin, ekonomik ve verimli iÅŸletmecilik açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bir iÅŸletme; satışlarını, maliyetlerini, karını, insan kaynak ihtiyacını tahmin ederek rasyonel kararlar alıp maksimum karlılığa ulaÅŸmayı amaçlar. Bu nedenle Ä°ÅŸletmeler, rasyonel kararlar alabilmek için geçerli ve tutarlı tahminler yapmak zorundadır.
Bu gibi tahminler bütçeleme ve gelecekte gerekli olan operasyonel gider ve karlılık belirlenmesinde kullanılabilir. Tahmin edilen olaylar gelecekte gerçekleşecektir. Zaman serileri analiz yöntemlerini tahmin amacıyla kullanan araştırmacı, tahmin edilen olayların gelecekte de geçmiştekine benzer vuku bulacağını varsaymaktadır.
Zaman serilerini analiz etmenin; tanımlama, modelleme, tahmin ve kontrol olmak üzere dört temel amacı vardır. Seriyi tanımlamak için serinin tanımsal istatistiklerinin hesaplanması ve grafiğinin çizilmesi gerekmektedir. Zaman serilerini analiz etmenin ikinci amacı zaman serisinin uygun bir modelini bulmaktır
“Zaman Serileri ve Satış Verilerine Uygulanması†adlı bu çalışma ile sanal bir bankanın f 2004-2010 yılı adet bazında bireysel kredi satış verileri incelenerek uygun bir model tahmini yapılmaya çalışılmıştır. Serinin durağanlık analizinde korelogram ve kök testleri yapılmıştır. Seri, Eviews 5.1 programı yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, doğal logaritmik bireysel kredi satış serisinin kendi düzeyinde ve birinci farkında durağan olmadığı, ikinci farkının alındığında durağanlığın sağlandığı gözlenmiştir. İkinci farkı alınan serinin durağanlığı yine zaman yolu grafiği ve korelogram üzerinden gösterilmiştir. Durağanlık sağlandıktan sonra ikinci fark alınarak tahmin edilen model oluşturulmuştur. Modelin uygunluğu hem korelogram üzerinden hem de Akaike bilgi kriteri (AIC) ve Schwarz bilgi kriteri (SIC) değerleriyle gözlenmiştir
Ellipsis in English and Albanian
Full text linkThis research attempted to conduct an in-depth analysis of the text-forming elements based on the fact that cohesive devices are insufficiently treated in the Albanian language, although considerable research and publications have been made in other languages.
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This study aims to bring evidence in recognizing, determining, and categorizing the structures of ellipsis and substitution which perform in English and Albanian. Comparing these important elements of grammatical cohesion in two languages will bring light upon the differences and similarities between the two languages. It will also show how frequently they are used in English and Albanian. Particularly, the aim is to show how these two mechanisms enable the avoidance of repetition, either by choosing other short words, phrases, and clauses or by removal of words, phrases, and clauses.
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This study involved samples of fiction and non-fiction texts of English and Albanian language, consisting of two novels and two daily newspapers. The findings of the research indicate that in fiction texts, ellipsis is used more in the Albanian language rather than in English whereas substitution prevails more in English than Albanian. Ellipsis is used more in the Albanian language rather than in English in non-fiction texts too. Nevertheless, the frequency of substitution seems to be the same in both languages with a total of 4 items in English and 3 items in Albanian
The Effects of Political Parties on Women's Organization
Full text linkThe aim of this research is to analyze statistics to understand the effect of political parties on women organizations and the obstacles they create for these organizations as they work for gaining their members’ rights. In the research, the quantitative method was used for collecting data, using a questioner. The research participants were chosen through snowball sampling in Erbil Governorate. The size of the sampling was 195 persons that their level of education was different. For analyzing the collected data SPSS software was used. The findings show that politics to a very low extent were obstacles for women’s organization and thus these organizations were unable to effectively operate in obtaining their members’ rights. The results also show that women themselves were unable to play an effective role for gaining their rights. In addition, the findings show that not having their own sources of finance makes women’s organizations depend on political parties.
Key words: Women’s Organizations, Political Parties, Radical Feminist, Liberal Feminist
Legal Responsibility for the Acts of Performed by the Media in Kosovo
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of how the media generally function in relation to their responsibilities to the state. Knowing that despite the legal protection enjoyed by the media under international conventions and in general domestic legislation, all criminal offenses committed through the media are defined in one way or another by adequate legal norms to prevent and sanction such offenses abusive.
During the different periods of law adoption in Kosovo, it is evident that the sphere of criminal and civil liability for criminal offenses committed through the media has changed. This is due to the fact that various provisions have not infrequently been used to restrict freedom of expression, which is otherwise the most basic, but also the most sensitive provision provided by Article 10 of the International Covenant on Human Rights. Therefore, in this paper will be explained the fluidity of the legislation on criminal and civil liability for criminal offenses committed through the media and that starting from international conventions, the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, international legislation compared to domestic, comparison of provisions which with the old codes have been defined as criminal offenses, while today those offenses are considered of a civil character and for these offenses there is only civil liability
The Reform of Public Administration in Kosovo
Full text linkThe reform of Public Administration in Kosovo is an essential part of the State-Building process. By the administrative reform, the Government aims to modernize the Public Administration, to strengthen its capacities and to make it more efficient and accountable. The post-conflict period in Kosovo from 1999 when the building of the new Public Administration in Kosovo began until the beginning of the administrative reform is a relatively difficult period for Kosovo. The reform of the Public Administration in Kosovo is manifested in two ways: first, in relation to its own development structure and, secondly, in relation to the functions it performs, the effects which are realized and the services provided to Institutions and citizens. The implementation of E-Government in Public Administration in Kosovo enables all efficient categories of Government services, at any time and from any distance, in order to meet daily needs of citizens. E-Government modernizes the administration and enables the creation of an efficient and accountable management at all levels of administration. Through the provision of electronic services to citizens, Kosova will be part of Europe
Assessment of Environmental Noise in Cities: A Theoretical Approach:
Full text linkEnvironmental noise is a major problem with increasing presence in cities; its effects are not only assimilated into the environment, but also impact on human health. Noise sources are part of the city's daily life and it has not yet been given due attention, although prolonged exposure causes often irreversible physiological and psychosomatic damage.
This paper presents a theoretical approach from several authors that expose the different tools that can be used the measurement and evaluation of environmental noise. These authors, to explain the causes and effect of environmental noise in cities consider various variables such as: sound pressure levels, weather conditions and urban structure
The Impact of Motivation on Organizational Commitment: An Empirical Study with Kosovar Employees
Full text linkMotivation and Organizational Commitment are determinant factors that directly influence the success of the organization. Work motivation is the process that initiates and maintains goal-directed performance, Commitment encourages employees to voluntarily engage in the organization and have an intention to be members of the organization for the long term. This study investigates the relationship between motivation and organizational commitment. An online survey was conducted with 207 participants across Kosovo. The results of regression analysis show that motivation has a significant effect on organizational commitment. The model summary shows that work motivation explains 36% of the change in organizational commitment. The coefficient of work motivation) shows that work motivation has a strong and positive effect on organizational commitment. Positive and strong correlation found between work motivation (WM) and organizational commitment (OC). As much the employees are motivated that means they automatically will increase the job performance
Avrupaki Cocuk Gocmenler
No full textThis paper provides an overview of the literature on the current refugee crisis in Europe, which primarily focuses on the situation of refugees that are children. Due to its magnitude, the world is currently facing one of the biggest humanitarian crises it has ever witnessed. Millions of people and young children have fled their home countries and became refugees The horror of wars and conflicts has affected all of the refugees while undoubtedly, it has had a more profound and significant impact on the children refugees. The rights of these refugee children are paramount, and one of these rights is that they are provided with safety and resources that will help them cope with the crisis while also ensuring they are provided a chance to a brighter future.
The United Nations Declaration of Human Rights. The European Union and the whole world have a direct responsibility to provide basic necessities such as food, shelter, education, health which can help and alleviate the mental and emotional suffering which the refugee children face. My research will focus on three important aspects of the child refugees crisis in Europe The general conditions of the children refugees, the conditions of camps especially in Italy, Greece, and Spain, and how the crisis has affected their daily lives and mental health. In the end, my conclusion will focus on the question of, what are the policies which Europe has to change which are designed to help and lead the refugee children which to a better futureThe aim of this paper to have a better understanding of children refugees in Europe and to raise global awareness about their conditions and the humanitarian crisis at hand. My research will consist of information from academic articles, published books, various websites, data from previous studies, and resources
Foreign Language Learning Anxiety Among Low Intermediate Level EFL Students: A Comparison of the Anxiety Levels of Students Attending Three Different Turkish State Universities
Full text linkThe present study examined the general foreign language classroom anxiety of  preparatory school students according to the type of University and gender. The sample consisted of 282 students from three preparatory schools. The students were from Anadolu Univeristy, Osmangazi University and Dumlupınar University. There were 150 male and 132 female students. One-Way ANOVA showed that there were no significant differences among the level of foreign language anxiety of preparatory school students from different Universities. In addition to considering anxiety in a gender differences t-test showed that female students have been found much more anxious than mail students in foreign language anxiety
Why are Certain Students Further from Achieving Their Desired Level of English Proficiency?
Full text linkThis study deals with proficiency of students towards English Language Learning. It includes ELT strategies that can properly motivate students to learn the language without betraying where they come from. Although many of them are afraid that learning English might assimilate them, therefore, they hesitate to learn English due to their Educational system which makes them fearful of losing their identity