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Secretary of State for the Home Department v MB: Secretary of State for the Home Department v AF [2007] UKHL 46
Get PDFHUMAN SACRIFICES AT THE ALTAR OF TERRORIST CONTROLJoseph K in Franz Kafka’s The Trial is arrested and put on trial, but the evidence against him is never disclosed and so he is suspended in a legal nightmare. On December 16th 2004, the House of Lords, in A and others v Secretary of State for the Home Department, ruled that indefinite detention of non-UK nationals, without charge or trial, was incompatible with Article 5 of the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR). In A and others v Secretary of State for the Home Department (No 2), Lord Carswell said, “…no court will readily lend itself to indefinite detention without charge, let alone trial.
REMEDIES, REDRESS AND "CALLING TO ACCOUNT": SOME MYTHS ABOUT THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMISSIONER FOR ADMINISTRATION
Get PDFREMEDIES, REDRESS AND "CALLING TO ACCOUNT": SOME MYTHS ABOUT THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMISSIONER FOR ADMINISTRATIO
THEORIES OF PRIVATE PROPERTY IN MODERN PROPERTY LAW
Get PDFTHEORIES OF PRIVATE PROPERTY IN MODERN PROPERTY LA
CAPACITY, MORAL RESPONSIBILITY AND THE CRIMINAL LAW
Get PDFThis article is concerned with the conflict between two theories of moral responsibility for wrongdoing, one of which I shall term the shallow capacity theory and the other the self-control theory. This conflict is of interest for two reasons. First, and fundamentally, it is important from the perspective of moral philosophy: in this regard, I will argue that the shallow capacity theory is incomplete, and as a result inferior to the self-control theory, which offers a complete account of moral responsibility for wrongdoing. Secondly, given the criminal law’s interest in moral responsibility and blame, I will argue that the self-control theory offers two important insights for the criminal law, insights that the shallow capacity theory does not provide. First, it offers the most accurate understanding of the moral significance of killing under provocation, and thus the best framework for understanding the partial defence of provocation. Secondly, it demonstrates that there is a need in the criminal law for a defence based on radical impairment of an agent’s capacity for self-control, and in so doing offers a vital insight into the notion of a partial denial of moral responsibility. It should be noted that these insights for the criminal law emerge from those features of the self-control theory that make it superior to the shallow capacity theory as a theory of moral responsibility
ADAPTIVE DRIFT MODELING OF DYNAMIC COINTEGRATED TIME SERIES: APPLICATIONS IN FINANCIAL AND SPORTS GAMBLING MARKETS
No full textCointegrated time processes are viewed graphically in terms of candlestick charts in finance and sports and modeled dynamically in terms of adaptive drift procedures. Forecasts focus on active equity trading, betting against the bookmakers’ lines in sports and assessing trading/betting risks. Modeling premises are that (1) markets fluctuate between periods of efficiency and inefficiency and that (2) during inefficient periods, present and past disequilibria (shocks) have dynamic effects on subsequent price changes/game outcomes. Sports forecasting incorporates the added effects of the lines and lagged gambling shocks. Forecasts are in terms of reduced, higher order, ARMA-type processes that drift to accommodate evolving market conditions. Risk assessment is in terms of adaptive GARCH modeling. Modeling applications are with reference to the Great Depression and NFL playoff games
DOES SPORTSBOOK.COM SET POINTSPREADS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS?
Get PDFThe Levitt (2004) model of sportsbook behavior is tested using actual percentages of dollars bet on NFL games from the internet sportsbook, Sportsbook.com. Simple regression results suggest that Sportsbook.com sets pointspreads (prices) to maximize profits, as the Levitt model assumes, not to balance the betting dollars, as the traditional model of sportsbook behavior assumes. Sportsbook.com is found to accept significantly more wagering dollars on road favorites, larger favorites, and on the over for the highest totals in the over/under betting market. Bettor liquidity constraints and sportsbook betting limits may help explain this result.
DYNAMIC MODELING FORECASTS OF EQUITY PRICE MOVEMENTS IN CASES OF INSIDER TRADING
No full textCase studies examine the extent to which insider trades in financial markets are a reflection of publicly-based forecasts based on (1) candlestick charts and (2) adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time processes depicted in such charts. ADM accommodates both gradual Darwinian-type market drift and punctuated Gould-Eldridge-type drift associated with market volatility. Covariates in ADM may include mosaic variables, currently a main line of defense for those accused of insider trading. Empirical studies suggest varying degrees of uncertainty in distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate trading in terms of resulting price movements
COMMENT ON BELL ARTICLE
Get PDFAlmost by definition, all disruptive technologies or innovations threaten vested interests. If markets and the legal environment are sufficiently flexible – and in the United States, for the most they are – innovations that buyers want diffuse throughout the economy despite the opposition.There are cases, however, where the existing order uses the legal system to fight back, to forestall or delay change. Napster is a case in point: it threatened the established recording industry, which eventually persuaded the courts to shut down that particular form of peer-to-peer file transfer. But even in this case, “the law” has failed to stop innovation. Other peer-to-peer networks have found ways to legally permit free Internet-based file transfers, while some companies – notably Apple – have developed business models around paid file transfe
HOW TO PAY TRADERS IN INFORMATION MARKETS: RESULTS FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT
No full textThe results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events remarkably accurately. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on prediction accuracy in a field experiment. In order to do so, we compare three groups of traders, corresponding to three treatments with different payment schemes, in a prediction market for the FIFA World Cup 2006. Somewhat surprisingly, our results show that performance-related payment schemes do not necessarily increase the prediction accuracy. Due to the risk aversion of traders the competitive environment in a rank-order tournament leads to the best results in terms of prediction accuracy
A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS
No full textThis paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world regarding that particular claim, claim prices immediately begin forming bell-shaped distributions, implying global agreement regarding the probabilities of claims being realized. This is an interesting finding, implying a surprisingly high degree of global homogeneity of inside information in predictions markets, even though such information is scattered in disconnected and secretive pockets around the world. This finding could also imply that cultural diversities do not significantly affect the interpretation of information in prediction markets.