The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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CASE COMMENT – What is Dishonestly For? Mistaking the Normativity of an Honesty Claim
No full textIf the mental element of a crime required no more than objective fault, then objective mistakes as to the normative standard of honesty, impropriety etc would inculpate. There is a tension here between the doctrine that “ignorance of the criminal law is no excuse” and the constitutional right not to be subject to ex post facto law making. Because evaluations by fact finders about the normative wrongness of conduct (ie the medical operation was normatively well below the average norms of medical care or the conduct was dishonest against the norms of honesty) only become apparent after the fact the defendant is not able to search the published offences to find the actus reus of such an offence, which they must be able to do if the doctrine that ignorance of the criminal law is no excuse is to apply to them. In the case of mistakes about normative standards, when the mental element requires D to have a subjective state of mind in respect to the normative standard, the constitutional right against ex post facto law making takes precedence over the rule that ignorance of the criminal law is no excuse. It is because crimes of negligence such as gross negligence manslaughter do not require D to have subjective fault in relation to the norms that D has failed live up to, that D’s ignorance of those norms is considered to be ignorance of the criminal law per se. Under R v Ghosh what is honest is an objective normative question, but D can make a subjective mistake about the norms of honestly since those norms are not set out in law as is required by the doctrine that “ignorance of the criminal law is no excuse”. The latter doctrine does not excuse ignorance, but that is on the condition that the “law” was “discoverable” (i.e. existed in case law or statute and was online or otherwise published) had D attempted to know it in advance of doing the proscribed act
Are English Football Betting Markets Efficient in the Presence of an Exogenous Shock? Testing the Semi-Strong Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Given the Effect of the Covid-19 Induced Ghost Games on the English Premier League and the English Football League Championship Football Betting Markets
No full textFootball betting markets can be used to test the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This paper adds to literature in this field by investigating the effect of an exogenous shock to the English football betting markets. We analyse whether market expectations were correctly priced during the Covid-19 induced ghost game period. We find that the loss of home advantage is not fully incorporated into the betting odds. Hence, we find evidence of a violation to the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Given our analysis we are able to demonstrate some simple betting strategies that bettors could have used to yield high profits. Moreover, we carry out robustness checks with five additional betting providers and produce concordant findings
Testing a System for Discerning Blackjack-Playing Tendencies from Card-by-Card Hand Histories: An Initial Simulation Using Bots
No full textThe game of blackjack involves in-game actions that can materially affect the possible outcomes and/or their probabilities. In theory, with data from enough hands and decision points, researchers and gambling operators should be able to develop player profiles and then use those profiles to detect increased risk of gambling harm. However, it is currently unclear how much blackjack play is needed to accurately classify players. As a preliminary experiment, we separated blackjack hands into nine classes, and then proposed a total of twenty play patterns (“heuristics”) across hand classes to operationalize players’ strategies. We used our heuristics as components to construct 506 blackjack-playing bots to simulate human play. We then created a program that would read a session’s data and attempt to determine which bot generated that data. We found that for more infrequently occurring hand classes (e.g., pairs, soft hands), even 30 shoes of play were not enough to accurately determine the identity of a bot. With more frequent hand classes (e.g., hard hands), we could only accurately identify bots that played consistent strategies within 30 shoes. Results suggest that efforts to use blackjack hand histories and profile-fitting to generate markers for gambling harm might require simpler classification systems, or otherwise be limited to highly involved blackjack players
Expanding Drug Indications: Strategic Lifecycle Management vs. Evergreening in SGLT2 Inhibitors
Full text linkIn the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical industry, Lifecycle Management (LCM) strategies are critical for maximizing the profitability and extending the market life of drugs. This study investigates the strategic importance of expanding indications for sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors before the expiration of their foundational patents. By analyzing these pre-expiration strategies, the balance between genuine innovation and strategic evergreening is addressed. The analysis covers the legal, regulatory, and clinical dimensions of indication expansions across the US, EU, and Japan, contrasting with the traditional focus on LCM strategies post-patent expiration
A Comparative and Systematic Review of Technical Analysis-Based Forecasting Techniques: Global V/S Indian Perspectives
No full textThis paper conducts a systematic review of Technical Analysis (TA) based forecasting research from 2013 to 2022, encompassing global and Indian authors. It addresses the evolving landscape of financial forecasting, including tool choices, variable selection, error measurement, and accuracy. Employing the PRISMA framework, we analyze 176 papers (88 global, 88 Indian) to examine trends in TA research. Key inquiries involve the publication trends, popular forecasting approaches, consideration of Transaction Costs and Data Snooping Bias, research time cycles, outcomes, and performance metrics. The study reveals that Indian researchers favor TA-based machine learning (ML) techniques, while global counterparts rely more on manual forecasting methods. Notably, many studies neglect to incorporate ‘transaction costs’ and ‘data snooping bias’ in their models. Most research focuses on forecasting within a 5–10-year timeframe, with TA-based techniques generally viewed as profitable. However, Indian authors tend to prioritize risk mitigation in their models, in contrast to global authors who often measure performance through return and profitability metrics. Additionally, this paper critiques the prevailing forecasting techniques, highlighting gaps in both global and Indian research. Its aim is to aid future researchers in identifying gaps, formulating research questions, and understanding methodological considerations within financial forecasting
Predicting the Winner of a Twenty20 International Cricket Match: Classification and Explainable Machine Learning Approach
No full textWe present a supervised machine learning approach to predict the winner of a Twenty20 (T20) international match. The prediction dynamically changes as the match progresses. We also use explainable machine learning techniques (SHAP scores) to understand the importance of various features in making the decision at various stages of the T20 match. We present results on a dataset of 808 men's T20 international matches. The dynamic accuracy increases from about 55% in the initial stages of the T20 match to a maximum of about 85% in the final stages of the match (with an overall accuracy of about 63% in innings 1 and 74% in innings 2). SHAP scores reveal that team strength is an important feature in making the prediction in initial stages of the match; however, in the final stages, match situation plays the dominant role in the decision making process. Our work may help team coaches and captains to assess their chances of winning and/or chart a course towards winning in the ongoing T20 match, as well as be useful for sports analytics and gambling websites and apps
Environmentally Sustainable Skin Surgery: Staff Perception, Attitude and Practices at a Dermatology Department in the United Kingdom
Full text linkIntroduction: The National Health Service (NHS) has set the goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2040. Within dermatology, minor skin surgery is particularly energy- and resource-intensive. As we approach the 1-year mark since the publication of the British Society for Dermatological Surgery (BSDS) sustainability guidance 2022, there is a need to assess dermatology staff’s awareness, attitudes and practice towards environmentally sustainable minor skin surgery.
Methods: A single-centre service evaluation study was conducted at South Warwickshire University NHS Foundation Trust (SWFT). A 12-question structured questionnaire was distributed to all medical and nursing staff that undertake skin surgery (n = 14 medical and n = 5 nursing staff) between 10 and 21 July 2023, with a response rate of 11 out of 19 (58%). The skin surgery waste disposal practices were evaluated between 14 June and 11 July 2023 where the weights of waste generated from seven skin surgery lists (each lasting 4 h) involving a total of 29 procedures were evaluated using a digital scale accurate to the nearest 100 g.
Results: Out of 11 respondents, 9 (82%) stated that they were aware of the BSDS sustainability guidance 2022, but only 4 (36%) respondents had read the guidance. Seven (64%) stated that they used absorbable and non-absorbable sutures for surface wound closure, whereas 4 (36%) respondents stated that they exclusively used non-absorbable sutures for surface wound closure. Eight (73%) stated that they exclusively used sterile gloves for skin surgery, and 3 (27%) stated using a mixture of sterile and non-sterile nitrile gloves depending on the situation. In the free text responses, 8 (73%) respondents stated they exclusively used sterile gloves for all skin surgery procedures, and 3 (27%) stated using both sterile and non-sterile nitrile gloves depending on the situation. Waste generated per procedure averaged 0.54 kg (0.05 kg sharps waste, 0.36 kg clinical waste, and 0.13 kg recycling waste). The recycling rate averaged 24.0%.
Conclusions: Our study identified a high level of awareness of the BSDS sustainability guidance, but few had actually read the guidance itself. Staff is engaging with recycling of waste from minor skin surgery. Staff education on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance on hand disinfection in minor procedures and the BSDS sustainability guidance could further promote staff transition into more environmentally sustainable minor skin surgery practices
Delivering a Sustainable Dermatology Service
Full text linkHealthcare accounts for approximately 4.4% of global net carbon dioxide emissions in the world. In this paper, we discussed the NHS carbon footprint and the practical strategies to deliver a greener dermatology service at the individual, practitioner, service and corporate levels
