The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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CAN PREDICTION MARKETS MITIGATE PRICE BIASES?
No full textThis study examines the pre-game and within-game price movements of contracts listed on Tradesports to determine whether relevant information is quickly and accurately embedded into asset prices. Each contract represents a totals (over/under) bet on an NFL game. In traditional casino-style totals betting markets, it has been demonstrated that the effects of adverse weather conditions are not fully incorporated into totals bet prices. If prediction markets are more efficient that are traditional NFL betting markets, then this price bias should be mitigated. We find that while price biases disappear quickly after kickoff, prior to this point they remain largely intact suggesting that casino-style markets and prediction markets may have similar informational limitations
ARBITRAGE TRADE IN PREDICTION MARKETS
No full textBy using data from five similar prediction market (PM) contracts on the 2008 American presidential election in two different market places targeted at investors of different nationalities, we investigate whether arbitrage opportunities across borders and market places exist in these markets. We find that arbitrage opportunities are rare and difficult to exploit. Markets in these political events seem to be fairly efficient, even if they are located in different countries, time zones and are relatively small. However, inter-market arbitrage opportunities exist, and we hypothesize that this can be explained by differences in political opinion between the US and other countries
A TOBIT REGRESSION MODEL OF FOOTBALL PERFORMANCE VARIABLES FOR A PROFITABLE FIXED ODDS BETTING STRATEGY
No full textAn analysis of in-match football team performances in European top flight matches has been undertaken to develop profitable betting strategies in the fixed odds market. Three profitable betting strategies for betting on the home win are derived using a novel application of the Tobit regression model. Net profits of in excess of 15% are obtained in unseen out-of-sample testing. The generation of these profits may indicate that general team performance information may not be correctly factored into the fixed odds offered by bookmakers
A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF THE LINK BETWEEN GAMING MACHINES AND GAMBLING-RELATED HARM
Get PDFIt remains irrefutable that electronic gaming machines are associated with gambling-related harms. Although research on electronic gaming machines has predominantly focussed on their structural characteristics and to a lesser extent, situational variables contributing to the emergence of gambling-related harms, the precise causal mechanisms of these variables in the aetiology of gambling disorders remains inconclusive. In addition, it remains debatable as to whether or not electronic gaming machines have higher rates of problem gambling as a proportion of participants compared to other forms. Contributing to this state of uncertainty are methodological difficulties related to jurisdictional differences in the geographical location, distribution, density, and configuration of machines (payback percentages and volatility), socio-cultural and demographic features, and availability of and involvement in other gambling modes typically associated with gambling disorders. In addition, questionnaire and survey items have tended to elicit information on preferred or identified problem forms of gambling. Accordingly, gambling-related harms tend to be attributed to such identified forms without taking into consideration intensity (expenditure and frequency) and involvement in gambling modes in aggregate. It is therefore postulated that directing attention to electronic gaming machines over other forms equally capable of causing harm is not an optimal approach to harm minimisation. It may prove to be more fruitful to investigate the complex interaction between cultural/social values, accessibility and availability of all gambling products in aggregate within a community and the factors that promote participation in multiple forms rather than a narrow focus on a limited range of products
SEEDING IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT: WHEN IS A HIGHER SEED BETTER?
No full textA number of methods have been proposed for predicting game winners in the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s (NCAA) annual men’s college basketball championship tournament. Since 1985, more than 70% of the teams in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds of the tournament have been high-seeded teams (i.e., teams assigned seeds of one, two, or three); a method that can accurately compare two such teams is often necessary to predict games in these rounds. This paper statistically analyzes tournaments from 1985 to 2009. A key finding is that there is an insignificant difference between the historical win percentages of high-seeded teams in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth tournament rounds, which implies that choosing the higher seed to win games between these seeds does not provide accurate predictions in these rounds, and alternate predictors or methods should be sought. Implications on gambling point spreads are discussed.
Further Analysis of the Markowitz Model of Utility with a small degree of probability distortion
No full textExplanation of the Allais paradox and the preference of many for multiple prize lottery tickets provide a rationale for why a model of agent’s choice under uncertainty should embody the assumption that they distort probabilities. However the degree of probability distortion required to explain gambling on long shots in Cumulative Prospect Theory appears problematic since it implies subjective expected rates of return are dramatically higher than objective returns. Here we show that a Markowitz model of expected utility, supplemented by a small degree of probability distortion, has qualitatively similar predictions as Cumulative Prospect Theory for numerous experimental outcomes as well as the indifference curves between expected return and objective probabilities for a given stake gamble. In addition we show how a small degree of probability distortion can lead to a preference for a multiple prize lottery which has a rather different prize structure and associated probabilities than the optimally chosen one prize lottery even though the utility gain is small
APPLICATIONS OF AN SPRT-LIKE TEST IN PARI-MUTUEL WAGERING
No full textPari-mutuel wagering functions as a very simple financial market, and has therefore been important in studying market efficiency. In this study, an SPRT-like test reveals that probabilities from the win pool corrected for the favourite longshot bias using Asch and Quandt’s regression equation can be used to exploit the exacta pool, and probabilities obtained from the exacta pool can be used to exploit the win pool. These finding differ from previously published studies that maintain that the win pool is largely efficient. Further, these findings mirror statistical arbitrage strategies utilized by hedge funds, where pricing inefficiencies are exploited between related assets
AN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REVIEW OF GAMBLING IN GREAT BRITAIN
Get PDFThe paper considers the nature and scale of the benefits and costs of gambling, with special reference to machine gaming. Although the industry is argued to be unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic impact, evidence is consistent with it generating considerable benefits to individual (responsible) consumers, whether measured by consumer surplus or through the pattern of responses to a wellbeing question. At the same time, a minority of users of gaming facilities, problem gamblers, appear to make consistently flawed decisions such that those with gambling disorder experience exceptionally low wellbeing. Public policy and regulatory decisions should consider the effects, on the margin, on both the net benefits to recreational gamblers and the net costs to problem gamblers. Many policy decisions may involve a trade-off between the welfare of recreational gamblers and the welfare of problem gamblers. Contemporary interest in targeted policies appears to represent an attempt to avoid the need to confront such a trade-off by searching for policies which are aimed very explicitly at problem gamblers alone.
MODELING CONSUMERS' PARTICIPATION IN GAMBLING MARKETS AND FREQUENCY OF GAMBLING
No full textSurvey data on participation in gambling typically contain many zeros. The presence of many zeros presents methodological problems for the analysis of participation in gambling markets and gambling expenditure. The most common techniques for handling zeros in gambling data have been the Tobit estimator and the Heckman selectivity estimator. Recent research indicates that hurdle models (Jones 1989, 2000) and the Cragg (1971) model, are better suited to analyze participation in gambling. We apply these models to gambling participation in Canada and find that the double hurdle model is preferred in two of the three forms of gambling examined
REDUPLICATION IN KANASHI
Get PDFKanashi, a Tibeto-Burman language is spoken in the Malana district of Himachal Pradesh in India. The present discussion concentrates on a particular grammatical phenomenon known as ‘reduplication’. By definition the concept of Reduplication stands for repetition or copying of a word or a syllable either exactly or with partial change in the phonological or morphological structure and the copied part is affixed to the base element in order to bring some modification in the semantic interpretation of the base element or to convey some special meaning. (Dattamajumdar, 2001:3). This study of reduplication is a part of the grammatical study of the Kanashi language which is an ongoing work. The data of the present work has been collected from Kanashi mother tongue speaker, an inhabitant of Malana district of Himachal Pradesh. The data has been collected and presented here using International Phonetic Alphabet