The University of Buckingham Press Journals
Not a member yet
1038 research outputs found
Sort by
INFORMATION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BETTING MARKET
No full textBetting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions
MEASURING THE EXTENT OF INSIDE TRADING IN HORSE BETTING MARKETS
No full textThis paper develops a theoretical framework for and models optimal price setting by on-course bookmakers in the racetrack betting market. This framework suggests that opening prices should include a premium that compensates bookmakers for the risk that insiders will account for private information and exploit any mis-pricing made by the bookmakers. The model is an extension of the model developed by Makropoulou and Markellos (2007) for football betting to the racetrack betting market. Using an extensive dataset and performing Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the potential value of new information, we measure insider trading in the Australian racetrack betting market
INFORMATION AND ATTITUDES TO RISK AT THE TRACK
No full textThere have been many attempts, theoretical and empirical, to explain the persistence of a favorite-longshot bias in various horse betting markets. Most recently, Snowberg and Wolfers (2010) have shown that the data for the US markets support a “misperceptions of probability” approach in line with prospect theory over a neoclassical approach of the Quandt (1986) type. However, their paper suffers from two basic difficulties which beset much of this literature. First, the theoretical model used fails to allow for the existence of horse betting markets which either display no such bias (or a reverse bias) as in Hong Kong and at least one large Australian market (Busche and Hall, 1988, Schnytzer, Shilony and Thorne, 2003 and Luppi and Schnytzer, 2008). Second, econometric testing and theoretical modeling are facilitated by the highly unrealistic assumption that the betting population is homogeneous with respect to either information or attitude to risk or (usually) both. Our purpose is to show that allowing for heterogeneous betting populations (in terms of both attitude to risk and access to information) permits the explanation for the different biases (or their absence) observed in different markets accommodating both a framework of rational bettors and the requirements of prospect theory. We conclude with empirical support for our model
DOES INTERNATIONAL SIMULCAST WAGERING REDUCE LIVE HANDLE AT CANADIAN RACETRACKS?
No full textConsumer interest in horse racing has declined significantly in North America. In an attempt to reverse this decline, additional gambling opportunities, including simulcast betting, have been added at race tracks. This paper investigates the impact of simulcast betting on live racing handle at Canadian horse racetracks. Using data from the 18 largest Canadian racetracks over the period 1999 through 2006, IV results indicate that increases in remote wagering opportunities in Canada lead to small positive increases in live handle. Simulcast betting opportunities do not cannibalize live wagering, rather they increase live wagering
UNFAIR GAMES, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES, AND FAVOURITE-LONGSHOT BIAS IN FINNISH HORSE RACING
No full textThis paper discusses risky and uncertain decision-making in the framework of gambling. The well-known anomaly of favourite-longshot bias is considered. We argue that gambling behaviour can be seen as consumption. Thus, gambling behaviour is more than a risky choice. It is reasonable to assume that the price of gambling is the take-out rate or the expected loss. We illustrate, with some elementary gambling, that the gambling markets constitute an environment where risky choices can be measured only with probabilities. Typical gambling behaviour (e.g. horse betting) is modelled by an approach that includes the attractiveness of risk, subjective probability, and the utility of money. We tested the favourite-longshot bias with a large accumulated dataset from Finnish horse race tracks that monitored more than 27,000 races over a five-year period. The empirical results indicate that Finnish gamblers’ behaviour is biased: they gamble too little on favourites and too much on longshots. Our results confirm the universality of the favourite-longshot bias that can be found in Western Europe, Australia and the USA
REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS
No full textThe “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks. Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book. Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games. Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases. The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book. Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency. However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets. This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias. This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes
Are the odds odd? Positive return evidence in German horse race betting
No full textThe article deals with the question, if odds derived from the behavior of bettors in a pari-mutuel setting really reflect the chances of winning for a particular horse in a particular race. Using a unique data set with more than 46,000 race observations from Germany for the years 2001 to 2003 the paper presents evidence on the favorite long-shot bias, evaluates the predictive power of totalizator odds, uses a binary logistic regression model to predict probabilities of winning and finally suggests three wagering strategies that actually yield positive returns in a hold-out oriented analytical setting.
THE HISTORY OF A LOTTERY GAME THAT WAS SELDOM WON
Get PDFLotto Extra was offered as part of the United Kingdom National Lottery’s portfolio of games between 2000 and 2006. A demand model for the game is estimated and used to illustrate a discussion of why sales of the game fell steadily to the point where it was no longer viable. Emphasis is placed on the lack of minor prizes and the long sequences of weeks when no one won the jackpot (and only) prize
Dialogue and declarations of incompatibility under section 4 of the Human Rights Act 1998
Get PDFIt has been argued that the Human Rights Act 1998 (‘HRA’) establishes a ‘dialogue’ between the courts, parliament and the executive. This ‘dialogue’ is supposed to be an exchange of ideas about rights pursuant to which policy goals are revised, but not blocked, following judicial decisions and takes place predominantly when courts issue declarations of incompatibility under s 4 of the HRA. There have been 18 cases in which declarations have become final. This article considers those 18 cases and their legislative aftermaths. It reveals, firstly, that parliament has some ability to deal with rights issues without the courts’ prompting, secondly, that although certain declarations may have led to constructive modification of public policy, other declarations may have led to less effective policy and, thirdly, that parliament has no real freedom to disagree with the conclusions of the courts on questions of rights when a declaration has been made
FORECASTING NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE GAME OUTCOMES RELATIVE TO BETTING SPREADS
No full textCointegrated time processes measuring NFL playoff game performances relative to the betting spreads are graphed in terms of candlestick charts and forecast in terms of autoregressive systems with time varying coefficients. Coefficients are modeled in terms of linear regressions on lagged shocks. Estimation is non Bayesian. Forecasts provide measures of market efficiency/inefficiency and outcome volatility. Risk assessment utilizes GARCH-type modeling in estimating volatility. Applications are presented for the New York Giants 2012 playoff games based on a data backlog of three years