The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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TOWARDS THE REASONABLE ACCOMMODATION OF RELIGIOUS FREEDOM
Get PDFThe Court of Appeal’s decision in Mrs Mba’s case is notable because: (a) it rejects the qualitative evaluation of her Sabbatarian belief as a “core component” of Christianity in assessing for the purposes of domestic anti-discrimination legislation the proportionality of her employer’s requirement for her to work Sundays; (b) it continues to keep minimal the size of the group required to show group disadvantage; and (c) per Elias LJ and Vos LJ, it finds the assessment of group disadvantage to be incompatible with Article 9 when the ECHR is engaged. The case represents the continued move from a group to an individual focus, and is welcome: it better protects personal religious freedoms. The logical conclusion is for domestic law to oblige employers to reasonably accommodate religious rights via a sui generis legal mechanism
REVISITING TRUSTEES' DECISIONS: IS PITT V HOLT THE FINAL WORD ON THE RULE IN RE HASTINGS-BASS?
Get PDFNot every decision we make is a good one. The power to make decisions includes the power to make bad choices as well as good ones. Unless there is some other factor, such as the exercise of undue influence, the overbearing of will through duress, or a mistake, good and bad decisions are equally enforceable in law. It might be thought that the same rule applies to decisions made by trustees, even though their decisions generally relate to the interests of the beneficiaries, rather than to their own interests. Of course, if the decision is so bad that it amounts to a breach of trust, and loss is thereby caused to the trust fund, then the breach might expose the trustees to liability to the beneficiaries. It was against this background that what became known as the rule in Re Hastings-Bass achieved prominence. A series of first instance decisions permitted trustees in some instances to backtrack on a decision which had unintended effects or consequences. The rule became subject to criticism, and was reviewed by the Supreme Court in Futter v HMRC on appeal from Pitt v Holt in the Court of Appeal. The decision of the Supreme Court substantially limits the scope of the rule, and identifies three circumstances where the decisions of trustees can be reversed: namely where there has been an operative mistake; excessive execution; or inadequate deliberation. This article explores the three dimensions to the rule in Re Hastings-Bass and identifies a number of difficulties with the decision in Futter v HMRC.
Do Casinos Contribute to Violent Crime? A Panel Data Analysis of Michigan Counties
No full textA key part of the debate over the current rapid increase in the number of casinos in the U.S. concerns the impact on crime rates resulting from the presence of a casino. In this analysis we use panel data covering all 83 Michigan counties for each year 1994-2010 to investigate whether the existence and size of a casino in a host county or in a nearby county affect the rates of four violent crimes: murder, rape, aggravated assault, and arson. We include a number of variables to control for factors that affect crime more generally. We find that county violent crime rates in Michigan do not rise in the presence of a casino, and in the case of aggravated assault, may actually fall. Previous studies of the impact of casinos on a variety of crimes in a variety of locations have shown mixed results
Wanna bet there will be war? A time-series analysis of prediction markets during the Libya conflict 2011
No full textThis paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade data to test the impact of events on market performance and trading volume. The market distinguishes sensibly between relevant and irrelevant news for the outcome of the conflict and prices them in at a surprising speed. Some support for short-term anticipative trading and price performance is found. The analyzed market is found to be semi-strong efficient and works as an evaluative tool in international conflict
INFORMATION AND PREDICTABILITY: BOOKMAKERS, PREDICTION MARKETS AND TIPSTERS AS FORECASTERS
No full text The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better
A Behaviorally Informed Survey-Powered Market Agent
No full textWe introduce a new method for converting individual probability estimates (obtained through surveys) into market orders for use in a Continuous Double Auction prediction market. Our Survey-Powered Market Agent (SPMA) algorithm is based on actual forecaster behavior, and offers notable advantages over existing market agent algorithms such as Zero Intelligence Plus (ZIP) agents: SPMAs only require probability estimates (and not bid direction nor quantity), are more behaviorally realistic, and work well when probabilities change over time. We validate SPMA using prediction market data and probability estimates elicited through surveys from a large set of forecasters on 88 individual forecasting problems over the course of a year. SPMA outperforms simple averages of the same probability forecasts and is competitive with sophisticated opinion poll aggregation methods and prediction markets. We use a rich set of market and poll data to empirically test the assumptions behind SPMA’s operation. In addition to aggregation efficiency, SPMA provides a framework for studying how forecasters convert probability estimates into trading orders, and offers a foundation for building hybrid markets which mix market traders and individuals producing independent probability estimates
DOES PARETO RULE INTERNET GAMBLING? PROBLEMS AMONG THE “VITAL FEW” & “TRIVIAL MANY”
No full textUsing records of Internet gambling subscribers (n = 1,384), this study tested the Pareto principle: about 20% of customers, “the vital few,” are responsible for about 80% of the activity, while 80%, “the trivial many,” are responsible for the remaining 20%. Participants completed the Brief Biosocial Gambling Screen (BBGS) and had a history of betting on sports and/or online casino games during the twelve months before completing the screen. Using various measures, the vital few Internet gamblers ranged between 4.6% and 17.8% of the subscribers – smaller than the Pareto principle would suggest. Between 38% and 67% of the vital few and between 24% and 35% of the trivial many screened positive for gambling-related problems. This research suggests that the concepts of the “vital few” and the “trivial many” apply to Internet gambling
RHETORICAL APPROACH OF FLAVIUS CLAUDIUS JULIAN'S LETTERS
Get PDFThis study examines the rhetorical practice of two rhetorical letters(Letter to Themistius the philosopher and Letter to the Senate and the People of Athens) written by Flavius Claudius Julian the emperor. Its purpose is to describe the way that Julian organizes the texts' coherence and intertextuality and draw conclusions about the text, the context of the letters and Julian’s political character.
THE LEGISLATIVE VETO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE KOSOVO CONSTITUTION
Get PDFThe Constitution of Kosovo has established a number of mechanisms for the separation of powers and reciprocal checks and balances among which is the President’s authority to return legislation for reconsideration. However, the interaction between the President and the Assembly on matters confronting the legislative veto has unveiled a number of constitutional ambiguities and inconsistencies which rendered involvement of the Constitutional Court necessary to define further the constitutionally-contemplated powers of the President for returning legislation for reconsideration. The article analyses the Presidential legislative veto from the prospect of the 2008 Kosovo Constitution. Through constitutional interpretation and practical cases this article seeks to examine more closely the structural and the functional aspect of the Presidential legislative return statements in post-status Kosovo
THE EFFECT OF ‘FAIRNESS’ ON PRE-NUPTIAL AGREEMENTS
Get PDFUntil the seminal judgment of Radmacher v Granatino pre-nuptial or pre-marital agreements were given limited weight in English law. Prior to this decision there had been considerable debate about the status in law of all nuptial settlements both pre and post marriage. The key question for Radmacher was whether pre-nuptial settlements should attract equal weight as agreements drawn up during the course of a marriage. In MacLeod v MacLeod the Privy Council finally resolved the issue with regard to post-nuptial settlements holding that agreements drawn up post marriage would carry weight when the court decides a claim for financial relief under s.25 Matrimonial Causes Act 1973. The English courts, unlike other jurisdictions, have always been reluctant to uphold agreements, which purport to deprive the court of its jurisdiction in deciding financial provision. There was also an underlying presumption that parties to a marriage did not intend their agreements to form legally binding contracts and finding adequate consideration within such agreements was often difficult unless the agreement is incorporated in a deed. The effect of the Supreme Court’s decision in Radmacher was not to reverse this approach. Pre-nuptial agreements were not made binding on the court but rather the court is invited to give weight to all nuptial agreements subject to certain safeguards. The subsequent decision in Luckwell v Limatagives guidance as to when the court will be prepared to deviate from pre-marital agreements even when the parties have been given independent legal advice and both parties are fully aware of the possible effect of such an agreement.