The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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Correlated Parlay Betting: An Analysis of Betting Market Profitability Scenarios in College Football
No full textIn this paper we consider the case of potential “correlated parlays” in American college football wagering. The structure of college football games is such that games in which favorites prevail in “against-the-spread” (spread) bets are expected to be more likely to go over the posted “total” of the game. Using a longitudinal data set over the years from 2005-2015, our findings confirm this to be the case. However, to prevent bettors from utilizing this trend to profit in their wagers, many sportsbooks disallow some, or all, same-game parlay bets. Consequently, we find that sportsbooks have generally been too conservative in refusing such bets and have thus foregone profitability in the vast majority of betting situations. This analysis opens a new line of discussion in the area of sports market efficiency research – that of correlated parlay betting. We consider this case and present potential directions for future research.
Modeling volatility of Indian exchange rates under the impact of regime shifts: A study with economic significance analysis
No full textIn this paper, we assess the impact of regime shifts on the long memory properties of the Indian exchange rates. We make use of Sanso, Arago and Carrion (2004) Iterated Cumulative Sum of Squares (hereafter referred as AIT-ICSS) algorithm to detect the points of structural breaks in volatility series. Our findings indicate that incorporating the impact of sudden changes in volatility in the model indeed reduces the magnitude of long memory parameter. In the case of INR/JPY, we observe a shift in characteristics from long memory to mean reversion when the impact of regime shifts is included in the volatility model. Our findings also highlight that incorporating the impact of regime shifts in the model also improves the volatility forecast accuracy. Moreover, we implement a trading strategy based on risk-averse investor and find that the volatility forecasts based on the model which incorporate the impact of structural breaks provide substantial gains in return in comparison to volatility models with no structural breaks. These findings have important policy implications for financial market participants, investors and policy makers
A conceptual alternative forecasting model for alternative investments
No full textIn this article we present a conceptual model for forecasting purposes that can be used from fund managers or investors. Our conceptual model is a hybrid model and borrows concepts from machine learning; more specifically, from artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic (FL). We propose the use of the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) which is a recurrent dynamic network, with feedback connections enclosing several layers of the network. This ANN is combined with a FL component to deal with uncertainties when considering various market conditions. The proposed conceptual forecasting model has an open architecture design so as to be extended and optimized based on investors’ needs
PREDICTING UPSETS: THE 2017 NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT
No full textIn 2017, approximately 70 million March Madness brackets were completed worldwide, and more than $10 billion was wagered on the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament both legally and otherwise (Goldberg, 2017). The difference between winning and losing in these contests is often one’s ability to correctly predict a few game outcomes where the lower-seeded underdog defeats the higher-seeded favorite in what is known as an upset. As the tournament has expanded and its popularity has increased, the term “upset” has become synonymous with March Madness. These games provide elation or heartbreak for players, coaches, students, fans, alumni, bettors and neutral viewers. On average, there are approximately six upsets annually in Round 1 alone of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. Many theories have been proposed that attempt to identify which matchups will result in upsets. However, most theories rely on “gut feelings” or have a subconscious bias for or against certain teams based on the individual’s rooting interest.Our prediction method combines data sets published by the basketball analytics industry’s foremost experts with historical tournament seed data to accurately predict which March Madness tournament matchups are most likely to result in upsets. It removes personal bias by considering only independently-generated data from neutral sources and provides an objective evaluation of all teams participating in the 2017 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament
Never Tell Me the Odds: The Stingy Odds for Leicester City to Win the English Premier League
No full textThe crowning of Leicester City FC as English Premier League champions in 2016 is arguably the biggest upset in the history of professional sports. The pre-season odds posted for LCFC to win the EPL were 5,000:1, worse than finding Elvis alive. In our model, they win just once per 70,000 simulations; thus, bettors could expect a return of just 0.071 of the stake when betting on Leicester City. This is similar to the expected return of betting on all of the long-shots in our simulations; however, the expected value of bets on favorites averages 0.864. We find that the betting market is segmented for favorites and long-shots; while the market for favorites resembles a normal betting market, the market for long-shots is like a lottery
Investigating intralingual and interlingual errors of algerian middle school efl learners in their written compositions: a case study
Get PDFThe present paper investigates the intralingual and interlingual errors of Algerian Middle School EFL learners in their writing compositions. The purpose of the study is to identify the major errors and classify them according to their types and sources. Besides, it aims at suggesting some solutions to this problem. The sample of the study consists of 1/3 of fourth year learners of Youcef Ben Berkane Middle School of Akbou – Bejaia, Algeria. Accordingly, a corpus of 62 written compositions is collected and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The findings revealed that all the participants significantly make errors in their written compositions. Besides, most of the learners make errors at the levels of spelling, tense, punctuation, subject-verb agreement, sentence fragment, articles, prepositions, and French interference. In view of that, it is also shown that the main source of the learners’ errors is intralingual followed by interlingual transfer. However, promoting extensive reading, integrating reliable writing activities in the classroom and practicing handwriting are some of pedagogical implications suggested to overcome the learners’ repeated errors.Key Words: EFL, Writing, Language Interference, Error Analysis, Bejaia, Algeria.
The participle form of causative verbs in Dangme
Get PDF AbstractThis paper presents a descriptive analysis of verbs with the participle marking affixes in expressing causatives in Dangme, a language that belongs to the Kwa group of the Niger-Congo family of languages. The paper examines the syntax and the semantic perspectives of the participialized form of causative verbs in the Role and Reference Grammar’s (RRG) theory in Dangme. The participle is an affix which expresses the completion at the final stage of a process. As a verbal affix, it can take objects and have tense or aspect in languages. They also indicate active agency (actor) and an agency receiving an action (sufferer). Generally affixes that express participial are in two forms: the finite and non-finite categories. Unlike Akan and other languages that have both forms, Dangme has just the non-finite category which of two forms. The two non-finite forms of the verb in Dangme are the participle and the gerund. The gerund affix {-mi} denotes a new word class from verbs in Dangme, (noun). The participle on the other hand has adjective-like characteristics and it is expressed mostly with the front vowels of Dangme: /i, e, ԑ/. It is to be noted that to form the participle in Dangme, two processes are required. Firstly, the verb stem is reduplicated either partially or totally depending on the shape of the verb stem. The reduplicant then selects a front vowel of the same tongue height of the vowel of the verb stem. The words formed imply a process of change caused by a causer. For the purpose of this paper, my focus is on the participial affix used in expressing causative meaning in Dangme.
A REVIEW OF CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS HYPOTHESIS WITH A PHONOLOGICAL AND SYNTACTICAL VIEW: A CROSS-LINGUISTIC STUDY
Get PDFAlthough contrastive analysis has often been questioned for its inadequacy to predict the transfer errors that learners will make in actual learning contexts it cannot be easily denied that “such interference does exist and can explain difficulties” (Brown, 1994, p. 200), especially in the phonological aspects of second/foreign language learning. In this line, the present research is trying to shed light on the concept of contrastive analysis hypothesis by focusing on the background and origins of the concept, then the procedures and its different versions. Also, the current study will discuss the differences and similarities exist in the phonology and syntax of two languages, namely Persian and English in order to be able to find the areas of possible difficulty for L2 learners of English
‘HOW WELL ARE WE DOING?’ THE UNITED KINGDOM AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OECD ANTI-BRIBERY CONVENTION
Get PDFThe Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions (the OECD Convention) entered into force on 15 February 1999. As at 31 May 2017, there were 41 State Parties (the Parties) comprising the thirty-five OECD member countries and six non-member countries.The United Kingdom (UK) ratified the Convention in 1998. The OECD Convention is supplemented by the Revised Recommendations of the Council of the OECD on Combating Bribery in International Business Transactions (the 2009 Recommendations),Annex I of which contains “Good Practice Guidance on Implementing Specific Articles of the Convention.”In March 2017, the OECD Working Group on Bribery in International Business Transactions (the WGB) published its Phase 4 Report on the United Kingdom’s implementation of the OECD Convention (Phase 4 Report).Having provided a short background section on the scope of the OECD Convention and the role of the WGB, the following section will review some of the key recommendations contained in the Phase 4 Report. In the final section, an assessment is made as to how well the UK is doing with regard to the implementation of its OECD Convention obligations.
Forecasting the value effect of Seasoned Equity Offering announcements: Evidence from BRICS and comparative analysis to USA and European Markets
No full textPurpose –The purpose of this paper is to forecast the value effect of the SEO announcements based on the BRICS stock markets, and to make comparisons with the US and European markets.Design/methodology/approach –China and Russia are picked as representations of the BRICS based on the analysis of the economic growth of the five countries. Historical data from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Moscow Stock Exchange (MSE) between 2010 and 2014 were involved. The authors use the abnormal return to quantify the value effect of SEOs and different models were built with the chosen factors. Modelling tools include EViews and SAS, and comparisons were made among the models.Findings –Positive market reactions were observed within two and three days after the SEOs in SSE and MSE respectively, negative market reactions exist in a long-run period after the announcements. The best model for the prediction is the auto-neural model.Research limitations/implications – The sample size could be larger in order to raise the precision of the prediction.Originality/value – Many empirical studies of the SEOs are based on developed markets. However the emerging markets may react differently. This research focuses on the stock markets in BRICS, which could be seen as representations of the emerging markets, thus could provide ideas and clues for relevant stakeholders in emerging markets before the SEO announcements.Keywords SEO, BRICS, Value effect, Neural Networks, SSE, MSEPaper type Research pape