The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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Can mutual fund managers predict security prices to beat the market?The case of Greece during the debt crisis
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Greek equity mutual funds, elaborating on stock selection in parallel with market timing measures, in comparison with the performance of ETFs and index funds for the period 01/24/2008-05/12/2017, and the short-term performance persistence of actively managed funds for the period 05/12/2015-05/12/2017. Using all domestic equity mutual funds at our disposal and daily data, the authors apply multi-factor models to estimate risk-adjusted returns and to evaluate the selectivity and market timing ability of fund managers. In order to investigate short-term performance persistence, the coexistence of stock selection and market timing strategy is allowed and a battery of parametric and nonparametric tests is implemented. Results show that actively managed mutual funds underperformed the market index, as well as passively managed ETFs and index funds, primarily due to the managers’ inability to time the market. Furthermore, a winner-picking strategy to outperform a-buy-the-market-and hold policy is questioned
The Impact of "Jet Lag" on the AFL Point Spread Wagering Market
No full textThis paper examines the presence of "jet-lag" effects in the Australian Football League point spread betting market. Fodor and Krieger’s (2014) findings that bookmakers, in NFL betting markets, do not consider efficiently the possible impact of jet lag on team performance, and are unable to take into account the possible existence of a potentially confounding home team bias since in virtually all games in the NFL, one of the teams has an a priori home ground advantage. Schnytzer and Weinberg (2008) took advantage of the distinctive feature of the Australian Football League (AFL), that many fixtures take place on neutral grounds, to demonstrate the apparent existence of a home team bias and the absence of a favorite-longshot bias. We conduct standard econometric tests of market efficiency over games where the home team bias cannot, by definition, exist. We used the 2001-2016 AFL seasons including the final series matches, venues, and betting information data and found no statistically significant line inefficiency in the games played on neutral grounds, regardless of whether the visiting team travels across multiple time zones in either direction or whether neither team requires a flight to reach the relevant stadium. However, line inefficiencies were found in overall games in which the home team enjoys an a priori home ground advantage. Such inefficiencies occur both in games where the visiting team experiences time zone changes when traveling to the game, and in games where the visiting team experiences no such changes. The amalgamated results for both neutral games and home bias games makes clear that jet lag cannot serve as a sole factor leading to inefficiencies but merely if combined with the home team bias. We show that betting on games in various inefficient sub-groups yields returns between 1.26 and 8.07 percent
Junket Operation, Macao’s Growing Pains or Stimulants?
No full textTwo serious junket incidents happened in Macao in 2014 and 2015 which led to the significant drop in gross gaming revenue lasting for 27 consecutive months. Therefore, this paper intends to investigate the importance of junket operation towards gaming companies’ financial performance and also its interaction with the quality of corporate governance. This study uses regression analysis to investigate the relationships among corporate governance, financial performance, and junket promoters in Macao’s gaming industry as well as the differences between those relationships under different economic conditions. The result reflects that when economy is growing, the corporate governance quality of gaming operators shows a decreasing trend. Under the control of corporate governance, the gaming operators tend to cooperate with junket promoters in a positive manner. In contrast, without the interaction of corporate governance, the junket operation brings negative impact on casino income, especially during booming economic periods. The result is consistent with the actual commission percentage over casino revenue, corporate governance score, and EPS for gaming operators. The extant literature mainly focuses on the relationship between corporate governance and firm’s financial performance. In gaming sector, the importance of junket operation towards casino profit and its interaction with corporate governance leaves much to be explored in the related academia. This study not only fills in the research gap, but also provides constructive suggestions for Macao government to improve the gaming inspection system as well as the rules on junket operations
ROAD RULES FOR OUR COUNTRY - AUSTRALIA’S CONSTITUTION AND AUSTRALIA’S FIRST PEOPLES
Get PDFThere was a time when most Australian drivers would encounter a particular kind of defaced road sign in their travels. Speeding along the National Highway near the Broome turn-off in Western Australia or dodging kangaroos on the back roads of western Queensland around St George, drivers could see a sign urging them to “FORM ONE LANE” transmogrified by some local wit to read “FORM ONE pLANEt”. Graffiti on signs in a vain attempt to make them say something else can be mildly amusing but completely ineffective. However, while it is dangerous (and illegal) to interfere with road signs, sometimes tinkering with an original symbol can achieve something worthwhile, and substantial.
Why has Macao attracted the world-record gaming revenue?
No full textMacao, located on the southeast coast of China, is perfectly situated to receive patrons from China about thirty years after its open-door policy in 1978 when they have accumulated significant amounts of wealth. With its gaming liberalization and the supply of such mainland Chinese patrons, Macao has become the world’s gambling capital since 2007. This article aims to analyze the major factors leading to this dominant economic performance. The experience of the mainland Chinese in the Cultural Revolution and the Era of the Gang of Four has motivated them to get rich quick to enjoy the material comforts that they have been deprived. Given that baccarat has a low house edge and is easy to play, many mainland Chinese like to play baccarat in Macao. Moreover, the interaction with the card afforded by baccarat, makes patrons feel that that they can control over the gambling outcome, and this fits the mainland Chinese psychology in their attempt to win much and quick with their high stakes. On the other hand, casinos have trained croupiers to make their patrons stay longer, including being polite, identifying the emotional status of patrons, managing patrons’ emotions and regulating the croupiers’ own emotions. In this way, casinos in Macao not only can make patrons experience sovereignty while in control of the staff-client interactions, but also help Macao attract the world-record gaming revenue
Religious Freedom and the Australian Constitution – Origins and Future
Get PDFThe most recent Australian Census, conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in 2016 (with a 95.1 per cent response rate), confirms that Australia is ‘increasingly a story of religious diversity, with Hinduism, Sikhism, Islam, and Buddhism all increasingly common religious beliefs’.1 Of these, between 2006 and 2016 Hinduism shows the ‘most significant growth’, attributed to immigration from South East Asia, whilst Islam (2.6 per cent of the population) and Buddhism (2.4 per cent) were the most common religions reported next to Christianity, the latter ‘remaining the most common religion’ (52 per cent stating this as their belief). Nevertheless, Christianity is declining, dropping from 88 per cent in 1966 to 74 per cent in 1991, and thence to the 2016 figure. At the same time, nearly one-third of Australians (30 per cent) state they have no religion, this group reflecting ‘a trend for decades’ which, says the ABS, is ‘accelerating
THE ROLE, INDEPENDENCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY OF THE AUDITOR GENERAL: A COMPARATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
Get PDFThe Auditor General plays a key role in the constitutional framework that is designed to support good governance. This article critically reviews the constitutional position of the Auditor General. It assesses the extent to which, in practice, office-holders enjoy the necessary individual and institutional independence and security of tenure to enable them to carry out their constitutional mandate, especially in the face of efforts by some political leaders and senior public officials (‘politically exposed persons’ (PEPs)) to abuse their position through acts of corruption and misuse of public office. It also explores the effectiveness of the support and accountability mechanisms for Auditors General. In doing so, the article reviews the position of the Auditor General in the constitutions of a number of Anglophone African states
READING DOWN SECTION 44(i) OF THE AUSTRALIAN CONSTITUTION AS A METHOD OF AFFIRMING AUSTRALIAN CITIZENSHIP IN THE 21st CENTURY
Get PDFUntil 2017, the most recent disqualification of a member of the Australian Parliament under section 44(i) of the Australian Constitution (‘Constitution’) was Senator Heather Hill in 1998. Remarkably, since 2017, almost twenty years after Sue v Hill, ten parliamentarians have resigned or been disqualified, triggering a series of by-elections. The catalyst for this flurry of activity occurred in July 2017, when Greens senator Scott Ludlam announced that at the time of his election, he was a citizen of New Zealand and was incapable of sitting in parliament under section 44(i). He was the first of ten senators and members of parliament to be referred to the High Court of Australia in the cases of Re Canavan and later Re Gallagher on questions of eligibility under section 44(i). Eight of these parliamentarians were disqualified, sparking national debate around parliamentary representation and membership within the Australian community. Since Re Canavan and Re Gallagher and indeed well before those cases, the section had and has continued to attract popular, journalistic, parliamentary and academic criticism. Consequently, there have been calls for a referendum on section 44(i) for a significant period of time. While the authors support this call, this article reflects on the cases and develops a different interpretive approach to section 44(i) which if argued by the parties and adopted by the Court, would have rendered a referendum unnecessary. By drawing on the earlier section 41 of the Australian Constitution case of R v Pearson; Ex parte Sipka and its majority judgment, as well as drawing upon the minority judgment of Murphy J and a more recent feminist judgment written by Kim Rubenstein, one of the authors of this article, we argue that the principles of representative democracy and the sovereignty of the people could have acted as a frame to read down section 44(i). Had this approach been adopted, the Court could have effectively placed the decision around disqualification of parliamentarians around the issue of dual citizenship, back into the hands of the elected representative
IN PRAISE OF COMPARATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL LAW: LESSONS FROM THE COMMONWEALTH
Get PDFConstitutions come in all shapes and sizes. Some provide for a federal or confederal structure whilst others adopt a unitary model. Internal ethnic, religious or other factors may determine the structure and distribution of constitutional powers, issues that are often of less significance in a constitution written for a more homogenous populatio
Predictability of Indian Exchange Rates
No full textIn this paper we determine the extent of predictability of India’s major spot exchange rates by using the Lyapunov exponent. We first determine whether the series is fractal (self-similar) in nature. If it is indeed so, then next we determine whether the underlying dynamics of the system is deterministic or stochastic. If the dynamics is found to be deterministic then we calculate the Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) to determine whether the series has deterministic chaos. Finally we use the inverse of the Lyapunov exponent to estimate the time period for which out of sample predictions for the series make sense. We find that India’s major spot exchange rates are: a) fractal in nature, b) chaotic with a high embedding dimension and c) The inverse of the LLE gives us a time frame in which any meaningful predictions can be made. These results are interpreted in two ways. First, exploiting the efficient market interpretation of randomness we conclude that since available information is fairly rapidly internalized, chaotic behaviour is mainly due to the unforeseen nature of the pool of new information affecting the systems at such short intervals of time. Second, anti-cyclical central bank interventions are conjectured to be the source of determinism in otherwise almost random movements