The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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Statistical Anomalies Associated with NBA Scorekeepers: A Bootstrap Investigation
No full textIn 2009, a Deadspin article documented how an anonymous NBA scorekeeper skewed statistics for various purposes. This research sets out to test the assertions set forth by the author of the Deadspin piece and uses prospect theory and unique statistical techniques to do so. The findings support the assertions proposed in the Deadspin piece that scorekeepers for various venues are skewing the statistics. The discussion provides suggestions for correcting this bias as well as demonstrates how asymmetric incentives by scorekeepers in favor of the home teams could be misused in determining salaries, playing time, trade negotiations, and media attention
Can Investing Diaries be Hazardous to Your Financial Health?
Get PDFBusiness writers and academics have suggested keeping an investing diary to avoid hindsight bias. In the diary, investors justify their predictions of future events, e.g., “This stock will go up because…” Eliminating hindsight bias should improve future returns. However, psychological research on the “explanation effect” suggests that justifying one’s predictions in writing induces overconfidence and, by consequence, reduces current returns. We test these propositions in a set of prediction markets populated by two types of traders: forecasters who completed a required investing diary task and non-forecasters who did not. The portfolios of forecasters were significantly over-invested in securities associated with the forecaster’s prediction. This is consistent with prior psychological research and a clear sign of investor over-confidence. We further find that forecasters with accurate predictions have higher returns than those with inaccurate predictions. However, the returns for forecasters with inaccurate predictions were generally no worse than the returns of the non-forecasters. Our results suggest that while keeping an investing diary may lead to biased portfolios, it does not have an overall negative effect on current returns. Therefore, contrary to expectations, there is not a trade-off between the long-term and short-term effects of an investing diary
An Assessment of the Fourteen Beneficiaries of Legalized Sports Betting and the Potential Benefits that They Derive
No full textThe 2018 ruling by the United States Supreme Court essentially legalized sports betting across the nation. Prior to that ruling, sports books were restricted by virtue of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). But with a landmark 6-3 decision, the opportunity door for sports betting has been opened in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This research focuses on two considerations regarding the opening of that door. Who are the potential beneficiaries, and what benefits might those beneficiaries derive? A detailed examination of the newly emerging literature identified 14 potential beneficiaries that fall within four broad categories: sports entities, traditional sources of revenue, the gaming industry, and other nonsports entities. Among these beneficiaries are the teams, organizations, fans, sponsors, bettors, the media, and society-in-general. The majority of the benefits revolve around financial considerations, but it is not always as straight-forward as cash. So, while the NBA is benefitting from a cash flow from its casino sponsor, society-in-general may benefit from enriched educational resources and a better infrastructure. This article further delineates the potential benefits for each of the 14 beneficiaries that have been identified
THE NIGERIAN SUPREME COURT AND THE POLITICAL QUESTION DOCTRINE
Get PDFThis paper examines the attitude of the Supreme Court of Nigeria towards the political question doctrine. It interrogates the decisions of the Court in selected landmark cases involving political questions since the First Republic to the Fourth Republic which commenced in 1999. The paper identifies three core approaches espoused by the Court in cases involving political questions – the deference approach, the necessity approach and the avoidance approach. This paper argues that in a constitutional democracy, it is inevitable – considering that the Court is both a political and a legal institution – that the Court, like in other jurisdictions such as Germany, India, South Africa and the United States, will be called upon to adjudicate cases involving political questions. As such, the paper recommends that the Court openly asserts the ‘politicality’ of its decisions, whether they are predicated on the need to defer to the political branches, exigency/necessity or to avoid the political questions brought before it
FROM THE SORBONNE TO SURBITON – THE IMPROBABLE ORIGINS OF THE ENGLISH CURRICULUM
Get PDFA number of milestone events in the development of the English curriculum are considered. These are not all the formative events which have shaped what and how the curriculum is currently configured in schools, academies and beyond but they have had an impact. The argument is advanced that a number of the stakeholders that contributed to its formation did so from a position which was unexpected, and which did not always display an appropriate rationality.The centrepiece of the article is the shaping of post war education in England by the research and assertions of psychologist, Sir Cyril Burt. Burt’s underlying ontology is explored and the arguable fraud of his work is examined in the light of his impact on the structuring of English education.Raikes, Callaghan, Major, Gove and Smellie are also given consideration leading to the conclusion that curriculum formation can be improbable in terms of its narrative
Beautiful Fractals as a Crystal Ball for Financial Markets? - Investment Decision Support System Based on Image Recognition Using Artificial Intelligence
No full textThe work by Mandelbrot develops a basic understanding of fractals and the artwork of Jackson Pollok to reveal the beauty fractal geometry. The pattern of recurring structures is also reflected in share prices. Mandelbrot himself speaks of the fractal heart of the financial markets. Previous research has shown the potential of image recognition. This paper presents the possibility of using the structure recognition capability of modern machine learning methods to make forecasts based on fractal course information. We generate training data from real and simulated data. These data are represented in images to train a special artificial neural network. Subsequently, real data are presented to the network for use in predicting. The results show that the forecast of time series based on stock price illustration, compared to a benchmark, delivers promising results. This paper makes two essential contributions to research. From a theoretical point of view, fractal geometry shows that it can serve as a means of legitimation for technical analysis. From a practical point of view, highly developed methods from the field of machine learning are able to recognize patterns in data through appropriate data transformation, and that models such as random walk have an informational content that can be used to train machine learning models
A Model for Improving Guesses of Future Soccer League Game Results
No full textIn this paper we propose a model for predicting future soccer game results by using information about the results of past league games. First, from regressions we extracted the prediction confidence interval for the goal difference between the winner and the loser in each game. Second, we created an arbitrary range around zero and defined criteria for forecasting a win, a tie or a loss according to the location of the confidence interval relative to the arbitrary range we defined. Third, we gradually changed the edges of the arbitrary range and repeated the second step. Among all the arbitrary ranges, we chose the one that best predicted the match results. We found that the best arbitrary range accurately predicts 52% of the match results. Finally, we upgraded the model by allowing double chance betting, which offers gamblers five possible betting options: home team wins (1), home team wins or game ends in a tie (1 and X), away team wins (2), away team wins or game ends in a tie (2 and X), game ends in a tie (X). When double chance betting was allowed, the model accurately predicted 77% of the match results
Junket Operation: Macao’s Growing Pains or Stimulants?
No full textTwo serious junket incidents happened in Macao in 2014 and 2015 which led to the significant drop in gross gaming revenue lasting for 27 consecutive months. In this paper, we investigate the importance of junket operation towards gaming companies’ financial performance and the interaction between the performance of corporate governance and junket operation. This study uses regression analysis to examine the relationships among corporate governance, financial performance, and junket promoters in Macao’s gaming tourism industry as well as the differences between those relationships under different economic conditions. The resultsreflect that when economy is booming, the corporate governance performance of gaming operators shows a decreasing trend. Under the control of corporate governance, the gaming operators tend to cooperate with junket promoters in a positive manner. In contrast, the junket operation brings negative impact on casino incomewithout the interaction of corporate governance, especially during booming economic periods. The result is aligned with the actual commission percentage over casino revenue, corporate governance score, and EPS of gaming operators. In a gaming sector, the junket operation towards casino profit and its interaction with corporate governance still overlooked in the academic study. This study not only fills in the research gap, but also provides constructive suggestions for Macao government to optimize the gaming inspection system and the rules on junket operations
Does the failure to provide equitable access to treatment lead to action by NHS organisations: the case of biologics for South Asians with inflammatory bowel disease?
Get PDFAims: The purpose of this study was to identify whether NHS Trusts where discrimination in the delivery of care to patients from the South Asian community had been demonstrated had taken any actions to address the issue over the subsequent year.Methods: Freedom of information requests were sent to three trusts which had provided evidence of disparate provision of biologic therapy to patients with Crohn’s disease, their associated Clinical Commissioning Groups and Healthwatch organisations to seek evidence they had remedied the situation. Requests were also sent to the Care Quality Commission, NHS Improvement and the Equality and Human Rights Commission seeking examples where they had responded to inequitable delivery of care related to ethnicity.Results: No organisation had any evidence of responses to the situation, many unable to accept its existence.Conclusion: Legal duties are discussed and the only remedy appears to be through the tort of negligence