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Can Machine Learning Predict Quantity and Duration of Migration to the USA?
No full textThe number of Mexican migrants in the USA has become tripled between 1990 and 2017. This surge in Mexican migrants has attracted a lot of attention not only from policymakers but also from economists. We use a set of pre-immigration variables for more than 25,000 individuals from Mexico to predict (i): whether individuals from Mexico migrate to the USA (ii) if they do so, how long they stay in the USA. We use 8 machine learning techniques and we conclude that we can predict correctly 72% of Mexicans who migrate to the USA and 93% of Mexicans who do not migrate to the USA. However, by using only pre-immigration variables our model does not perform well in predicting how long Mexican migrants will stay in the USA. We can only predict 35% of the variation in the number of months that Mexican migrants will stay in the USA
THE “TROJAN HORSE” PLOT AND THE FEAR OF MUSLIM POWER IN BRITISH STATE SCHOOLS
Get PDFIn 2014, an alleged “Trojan Horse” plot to Islamise education in a number of schools attended predominantly by diverse Muslim pupils in the inner-city wards of Birmingham raised considerable questions. Ofsted investigations of 21 schools explored these concerns at the behest of the then Secretary of State for Education, Michael Gove MP. At the head of this so-called plot, a certain Tahir Alam, once a darling of New Labour’s policies on British Muslim schools, faced the brunt of the media and political furore. Based on a series of face-to-face interviews with Alam in 2015 and 2016, this paper provides a detailed insight into the allegations, the context in which they emerged, and the implications raised for young Muslims in the education system. Ultimately, as part of the government’s counter-terrorism policy the accusations of the “Islamisation” of education in these “Trojan Horse” schools foreshadowed the additional securitisation of all sectors of education. However, there was neither the evidence nor the legal justification to ratchet up anti-extremism education measures that eventually followed; namely the Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015. The consequences of the negative attention heightened existing Islamophobia but, paradoxically, they also limited the opportunities for de-radicalisation through education
In Search of Perfect Pedagogy…
Get PDFIt is only in relatively recent times that we have accepted that teachers and their teaching vary. The ancient public schools set the tone and when state schooling began in 1870 it was generally accepted that any shortcomings in learning were the fault of the pupil. School reports to parents, dunces’ caps, corrections and flog-ging were among the devices that put any blame on the pupil. But that some teach-ers enjoyed more success than others was always obvious, as was the fact that some leaners learned more. The search for effective pedagogy has fascinated for different reasons: scientific, professional, political and pragmatic.
This paper explores some of the complexity of, and influences upon, pedagogy in English schools. It examines some examples of pedagogic development, the apparent random development over time and the ways the teaching profession responds. The paper concludes with a call to greater professional influence and proposals for building and capitalising upon expertise
Efficient Micro-Behaviors in Pari-mutuel Betting System and FL Bias
No full textIn this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value of the benefit. The results can be interpreted as such efficient behaviors do not serve to extinguish the FL bias but even produce stronger FL bias
MICHAEL GOVE’S HERITAGE: SCHOOL GOVERNANCE REFORM
Get PDFThis article examines the nature and effects of the radical reforms to English school governance since 2010, the year in which a Coalition Government, led by the Conservative Party, came to power in the UK, and Michael Gove was appointed Secretary of State for Education for England, a post he occupied for four formative years of Education reform. These governance reforms were part of a much wider programme of change, arguably fundamental in the sense that they have affected the classroom experiences of students directly. This programme encompassed changes to the curriculum, the assessment of children (and, by proxy, teachers and schools), the initial training and assessment of teachers and, eventually, school inspection, with the most recent revised Ofsted Inspection Framework governing inspections in use from September 2019 (Ofsted 2019).
Nevertheless, governance changes provide the framework through which all educational change in the future can be conceived, considered, interpreted, implemented and realised with students. So although all the above changes are identified with Gove, the changes to governance, often still badged as ‘academisation’, may be argued to be the most fundamental and the basis for considering future change and, indeed, Gove’s heritage. No one policy maker controls the complete process of change and its development, of course, one of the features of ‘complexity’, and it is argued here that the methods of realising governance reform in England have severely constrained future choices of direction
THE EROSION OF TRUST – A REFLECTION
Get PDFDavid Gumbrell was a Primary headteacher in a successful London school when Michael Gove was Education Secretary. He is now a successful writer, trainer and academic with a special interest in teacher induction, development and wellbeing. The following are some of his reflections from the position of school leadership on what he sees as fundamental flaws in Gove’s leadership of education. Whilst, Gumbrell remains aware of potential unconscious bias he uses trust as the pivot, for his reflections. He states ‘I hope to mitigate the inevitable emotional attachment to my profession and my view as to the effect that Michael Gove has had upon it, both at the time and also the resultant legacy of his ministerial post.
Gove was and remains a polarising figure. For some Gove was the saviour of high-quality education, others regarded him as a ‘vandal’, busy sacking the person-centred education which had built up and refined since Plowden. Although never a consensus view, many teacher expressed their dismay at the reforms to the accreditation structure, curriculum, schemes of assessment and opportunities to control schools brought in by Gove
Predicting Intraday cryptocurrency returns – A Sparse Signals approach
No full textWe test for the existence of sparse and short-lived signals in minute-by-minute cryptocurrency returns. Using a large set of linear as well as non linear predictors and a machine learning technique called the LASSO, we generate 1-minute ahead out of sample return forecasts for ten major cryptocurrencies. The forecasts obtained from the LASSO are statistically superior to those generated by the benchmark models. The LASSO based estimation selects predictors that are sparse and quite short lived
Letter To the Editor: A student’s perspective of medical education amidst COVID-19: a story of balancing learning and morale.
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Letter to the Editor : A reflection on Evidence-based Medicine undergraduate training by junior doctors in the COVID-19 pandemic
Get PDFDr. Bharathy Kumaravel
Journal of Medical Education Research
University of Buckingham Press
51 Gower Street
London
WC1E 6HJ
9th June 2021
Dear Editor,
Evidence-based medicine (EBM) has become the gold standard for clinical decision-making and customary practice over the last few decades. As recently qualified junior NHS doctors, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the practical relevance and importance of developing the skills of effective literature search and critical appraisal to be able to utilise it in our daily clinical practice.
This letter is to bring to your kind attention our own reflection of training opportunities we had in relation to EBM and public health in our undergraduate curriculum. This training has helped us to survive our initial clinical years, made even more challenging by COVID-19 and ever-evolving medical knowledge. As per Meats, Heneghan, Crilly and Glasziou (2009) there is significant variation in EBM undergraduate teaching in medical schools in the UK and although core EBM topics are taught in theory, relatively few medical students gain the opportunity to practice or assess such skills.
As medical students at the University of Buckingham Medical School (UBMS), we formed a group called ‘UBMS public health crew’. We were able to go into community lunch clubs and conduct one-to-one interviews with the elderly ethnic minority communities to gain their perceptions and possible barriers they face regarding influenza vaccination uptake. We also had the annual EBM conference conducted by the medical school where we were able to submit our reports of concise and efficient implementation of EBM on clinical questions we formed during our clinical years. These were then showcased as posters, with the best examples also being presented with a prize of EBM champion for the best presentation. To our knowledge, student initiatives surrounding the clinical application of EBM is unique to University of Buckingham.
The culmination of this training resulted in us continuing to incorporate EBM into our clinical practice and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it showed how EBM became almost a necessity in our clinical practice. During the initial wave, many junior doctors were redeployed to COVID specific wards. Clinicians caring for these patients were eager to learn more about the disease. As a result, at our hospital, a journal club was setup to critically analyse recent publications on COVID-19. A topic that was discussed was fluid administration in these patients. An initial management strategy had been to restrict fluid administration to these patients to avoid causing an acute respiratory distress syndrome. However, as more evidence emerged it became clear that this had potentially harmful effects. This led to the advocation of judicious fluid management. Our early exposure to the practical application of EBM has nurtured a dynamic approach to clinical medicine in a profession where what is best for the patient today is not necessarily the case tomorrow.
In addition to our clinical application, we have also continued our research on EBM teaching for medical students. By presenting our research with posters and publications we are continuing to expand our research on this field with further opportunities.
In conclusion, having formal modules on developing EBM skills as well as having interactive and real-time opportunities for medical students to expand on their EBM interests such as having community-based EBM projects and implementation of EBM in clinical practice are imperative to ensure future clinicians deliver scientifically sound clinical care that is in line with ever evolving medical research and to deal with unprecedented medical challenges.
Sincerely,
Dr. Fathima Rawther and Dr. Justin Collis
Foundation Year 2 Doctors
Royal Berkshire Hospital and Epsom & St Helier University Hospitals
References
Meats, E., Heneghan, C., Crilly, M. and Glasziou, P., 2009. Evidence-based medicine teaching in UK medical schools. Medical Teacher, 31(4), pp.332-337
Owens v Owens: A Most Curious Case
Get PDFThe combination of the long Brexit delays, largely unwelcome General Election, a change of leadership and Cabinet composition in the Conservative government and finally the coronavirus has between them resulted in a long pause in expected reforming legislation which is much needed in Family Law, including the initial loss of the Divorce Dissolution and Separation Bill 2019, generated in 2019 by the failure of Mrs Owens’ ’ Supreme Court appeal in the now notorious case of Owens v Owens. While this was immediately hailed by the media as justification for urgent reform of the Law of Divorce in England and Wales – on the grounds that English law was almost alone in modern liberal jurisdictions in lacking a No Fault Divorce regime – clearly this has now been overtaken by subsequent events.
While it may be factually accurate that England and Wales does not have such a regime for dissolution of marriage without fault and by consent (at least without satisfying the inconvenient condition of waiting for the two-year delay necessary for a decree on the basis of two years of separation and consent), and perhaps should have one for the reason stated, the failed Owens appeal has absolutely no jurisprudential connection with any urgency for reform of the law in order to secure such a decree at all. This is because the legal profession has been effectively obtaining divorces under the present law for over 40 years, and, notwithstanding Owens, has been continuing to do so since 2018, albeit with the caveat that drafting must be undertaken with extreme care to be sure to avoid a repeated debacle. Nevertheless, on account of the age of the present statute, legal, political and social theorists of course have strong arguments for a No Fault addition to the existing Matrimonial Causes Act 1973 or even for replacing the existing provisions of that statute altogether.
However this is because the present statute is itself a re-enactment and consolidation of the original Divorce Reform Act 1969 which led the post-WWII reforms creating our current Law of Divorce, so is well past its ‘sell-by date’, but not because it does not work in modern times. If anything, and especially with the assistance of s76 of the Serious Crime Act 2015, s 1(2)(b) of the 1973 Act works entirely consistently with present philosophy, that is, as marriage is a partnership of equals there is no place for any form of domestic abuse within it.
In fact Mrs Owens thus could (and arguably should) have obtained her divorce on the existing basis, pursuant to s 1(2)(b) of the 1973 Act, namely on that of her husband’s ‘behaviour’. Thus, as indeed hinted by Lady Hale in her paragraph 50 of the Supreme Court judgment, which she added to the agreed text set by Lord Wilson, there was clear evidence of the alleged ‘authoritarian, demeaning and humiliating conduct over a period of time’, which in law was capable of founding a decree, and there was existing case law supporting this in the case of Livingstone-Stallard v Livingstone-Stallard.
Consequently in her paragraph 53 she identified what in her view was thus ‘the correct disposal … to allow the appeal and send the case back to be tried again’ – which, however, could not be adopted in the particular circumstances, owing to the fact that no one, including the Appellant, Mrs Owens, wanted to go through such a trial again, not least as even her counsel, Philip Marshall QC, ‘viewed such a prospect with dread’. Thus, in her paragraph 54, Lady Hale concluded that she was ‘reluctantly persuaded that this appeal should be dismissed’ – a conclusion, however, not stopping her from including some forthright comments on the conduct of the case below, with which any analysis can only agree.
So, whatever happened in Owens v Owens? In the Central London Family Court, the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court