The University of Buckingham Press Journals
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Bias Induced by Risk Budgets in Betting Markets
No full textEmpirical observations of implied odds from horse race handicapping suggest that, on average, betting markets are informationally efficient. However, longshots are often mispriced. We argue that an implicit risk budget, particularly for races with large field sizes, artificially limits the correct pricing of genuine longshots. This impacts the implied probabilities and therefore prices paid for other runners in a race. Using entropy measures, we demonstrate this mispricing is systemic through betting markets
Towards a Universal Climate Justice through a Human Rights-Based Approach
Full text linkThe United Nations’ historical recognition of the right to a safe, clean, healthy, and sustainable environment while strengthening the acknowledgement of the link between the protection of human rights and the environment under international law, highlights the urgency of the escalating effects of climate change on people’s lives and their fundamental rights. Along with widespread pollution and biodiversity reduction, climate change is now, in fact, one of the most serious threats to people’s health and their living environment, making it a significant obstacle to the UN 2030 Agenda’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In light of relevant scientific evidence on the current global warming status and trends, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently emphasised the need to prioritise rights-based approaches in addressing climate change, including mitigation and adaptation measures. Hence, the study aims to explore how advancing a Human Rights-Based Approach (HRBA) towards climate environmental issues may be instrumental in supporting international and national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect people’s rights, and achieve sustainable development. By presenting rights-based climate litigation, it will be further possible to demonstrate how international human rights and climate change law have recently evolved while offering various insights into its impacts on creating a pathway towards universal climate justice
Evaluating the Efficiency of the National Football League Betting Market by Testing the Profitability of Suggested Gambling Rules
No full textGambling on professional sports is becoming more popular across the country as states legalize the practice, causing more participants to seek out profitable betting strategies. A number of academic papers over the past 40 years have found profitable gambling rules on National Football League games. We show that six of these supposedly profitable strategies identified previously in the literature fail to hold up over other time frames. The betting market in football is not inefficient with respect to the situations covered by these six strategies and the rules are not long-run profitable
Does Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Impede Economic Growth?
No full textThis article aims to explore the connection between Environmental, Social, and Governance related risks and economic growth. For this purpose, I performed two panel-data regression Models by utilizing the Gross domestic product as a dependent variable and ESG scores and degree of ESG-related risk exposures as independent variables in presence of five control variables. The ESG scores and degree of ESG-related risks exposures were collected from the Risk Indexes for the sample period 2019 to 2021. This research found that the country’s high ESG-related risk exposures negatively influence GDP. This study provides policymakers with important implications of the country’s ESG-related risk exposures in the best interests of the world’s stakeholders including Foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
The Effect of Firm-Specific and Industry-Specific Determinants on Automobile Industry Export Performance: The Mediating Role of Supply Chain Performance
No full textThis paper analyzes the effect of firm-specific (FSD) and industry-specific determinants (ISD) on supply-chain-performance (SCP), export performance (EP) and SCP’s mediating effect on the relationship between FSD, ISD, and EP. It develops a theoretical framework from literature and empirically validates using the Indian automobile industry segments (IAIS) data. The sample frame consists of firms in ISIS between 2010–11 and 2020–21. The paper employs factor analysis for construct validity, panel-data-fixed-effect models to analyze the relationships, and bootstrap for cross-validation. It reveals that FSD and ISD directly influence both SCP and EP. SCP completely mediates the relationship between FSD, ISD, and EP
ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models in Forecasting the Macau Property Price Index During COVID-19
No full textThe real estate market plays an important role in the economies of many countries, and the future trend of the market has long been a topic of concern to both academics and practitioners. This paper attempts to study the effectiveness and superiority of two univariate time series models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing, to forecast the Macau residential property price index during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on 1- and 2-year holdout samples during the shock of COVID-19 in Macau, the results show that the out-of-sample forecasting performances of both models are better than the baseline model of classical decomposition. There is also evidence that the ARIMA models outperform the Winters three-parameter exponential smoothing models in the two out-of-sample periods. Therefore, in the context of unprecedented events such as COVID-19, the ARIMA method is more effective than the Winters exponential smoothing method in making rapid and accurate adjustments when the Macau residential property price index is significantly affected. Our findings provide important implications for relevant government departments, home buyers and sellers, and property market participants in their selections of reliable models to forecast future property market behavior
Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics for Strategic Financial Decisions: Seasoned Equity Offerings, Stock Splits, Pandemic effects, and Investment Decisions
No full textScholars in the intersection of operational research, strategy, and finance have extensively examined the effects of event studies in finance, especially that of a strategic nature, such as that of planned as well as unexpected corporate events and respective abnormal returns on the stock market. Nonetheless, there is still a research gap on the extent of the forecastability of this abnormal behaviour, especially when predictions may provide crucial information to both investors and issuers, and therefore drive effectively investment decisions. In this study we forecast the value effect of SEOs and Stock Splits, across developed and emerging economies. The selection of these nations, namely the United States (benchmark), Brazil, and India, was based on their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the impact of their stock markets on economic growth. Data consist of 2,043 strategic financial decisions with historical information from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and Brazil Stock Exchange (B3) from 2010 to 2020. Linear regression (benchmark), random forests, gradient boosting machines, support vector regression and neural networks methods are empirically evaluated, with non-linear models performing better than the benchmark. A trading simulation is also incorporated to complement model outcomes and determine whether these predictions could be capitalised through effective decision making in the investment spectrum. Finally, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were also analysed for SEOs in the NYSE, and significant differences were discovered in March and April 2020. Results indicate how negative abnormal returns were exacerbated by COVID-19’s systemic impact during March and rebounded in April
International Evidence on Managerial Skills of Green Mutual Funds
No full textUsing an international sample of 60 green funds from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2022, this study compares the managerial skills of green and matching conventional funds. Additionally, the study separately assesses how fund size and age affect the managerial abilities of both types of funds. The results suggest that fund’s green characteristic impacts managerial skills since green fund managers show better managerial skills than their conventional counterparts. Fund size influences managerial skills as small mutual funds are mainly responsible for the positive stock-selection skills in green and conventional fund managers. This paper also controls the results for the fund age effect and concludes that young and green funds possess better managerial skills than their older and conventional counterparts. The study reflects that green mutual fund, along with other green financial instruments, contribute to the global movement called “Sustainable Finance”, which aims to invest in public and private projects, therefore supporting mitigation and containment of climate change risks
Incarcerated Women’s Right to Health: Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Reality
Full text linkThis article aims to investigate the impact of incarceration on women with regard to their right to health in the criminal justice system in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Despite the universal recognition of the right to health within detention facilities, it has received limited scholarly attention. There is a pressing need for research on this topic due to the identified gap in the literature concerning incarcerated women, with the available data being fragmented and insufficient in addressing the women offender’s right to health in detention settings in the region.
The findings of this article indicate that the use of detention facilities as a punitive measure has a significant detrimental impact on women, resulting in additional challenges within these environments. This results in gender-based disparities and differential inequalities of treatment that are systematically imposed upon women within the prison and criminal justice systems. Despite this evidence, incarcerated women are marginalised in discussions related to criminal justice system treatment. A significant absence of concrete steps towards reforming the criminal justice system remains
