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Production planning of energy systems: Cost and risk assessment for district heating
Get PDFThis dissertation is a collection of research articles that assess economic and operational risk in production planning of district heating. District heating systems are typically coupled to the electricity system through cogeneration and power-to-heat technologies, and production planners must account for uncertainty stemming from changing weather, demands and prices. Years of high-resolution data from the district heating system in Aarhus, Denmark have been used throughout the project to model the system and estimate uncertainties. Risk management tools have been developed to aid district heating operators and investment decision makers in short-, medium- and long-term production planning.
Short-term production planning involves commitment of production units and trading on the electricity markets and relies on forecasts of the heat load. Weather predictions are a significant source of uncertainty for heat load forecasts, because the heat load is highly weather-dependent. I introduce the method of ensemble weather predictions from meteorology to heat load forecasting and create a probabilistic load forecast to estimate the weather-based uncertainty. Better estimates of the weather-based uncertainty can be applied to optimize supply temperature control and reduce heat losses without compromising security of supply in heat distribution systems.
Consumer behavior is another substantial, but difficult to capture, source of uncertainty in short-term heat load forecasts. I include local holiday data in state-of-the-art load forecasts to improve accuracy and capture how load patterns change depending on the behavior of the consumers. A small overall improvement in forecast accuracy is observed. The improvement is more significant on holidays and special occasions that are difficult to forecast accurately.
In medium-term production planning, there can be substantial economic potential in performing summer shutdown of certain production units. The shutdown decision carries significant risk, due to changing seasonal weather patterns. Based on 38 years of weather data, the uncertainty on the timing of the optimal decision is estimated. This information is used to develop practical decision rules that are robust to rare weather events and capable of realizing more than 90% of the potential savings from summer shutdown.
Long-term production planning decisions regarding investments in future district heating production systems are affected by uncertainty from changing electricity prices, fuel prices and investment cost for technology. The effects of these uncertainties on a cost-optimal heat production system are explored, usingwell-established production and storage technologies and extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis. The optimal technology choices are highly stable and, taxes aside, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the cost-optimal heat production systems. However, the uncertainty on the exact capacity allocation is substantial. Excluding heat production based on fossil fuels increases the uncertainty on the system cost, but drastically reduces the uncertainty on the optimal capacity allocation.This dissertation is a collection of research articles that assess economic and operational risk in production planning of district heating. District heating systems are typically coupled to the electricity system through cogeneration and power-to-heat technologies, and production planners must account for uncertainty stemming from changing weather, demands and prices. Years of high-resolution data from the district heating system in Aarhus, Denmark have been used throughout the project to model the system and estimate uncertainties. Risk management tools have been developed to aid district heating operators and investment decision makers in short-, medium- and long-term production planning.
Short-term production planning involves commitment of production units and trading on the electricity markets and relies on forecasts of the heat load. Weather predictions are a significant source of uncertainty for heat load forecasts, because the heat load is highly weather-dependent. I introduce the method of ensemble weather predictions from meteorology to heat load forecasting and create a probabilistic load forecast to estimate the weather-based uncertainty. Better estimates of the weather-based uncertainty can be applied to optimize supply temperature control and reduce heat losses without compromising security of supply in heat distribution systems.
Consumer behavior is another substantial, but difficult to capture, source of uncertainty in short-term heat load forecasts. I include local holiday data in state-of-the-art load forecasts to improve accuracy and capture how load patterns change depending on the behavior of the consumers. A small overall improvement in forecast accuracy is observed. The improvement is more significant on holidays and special occasions that are difficult to forecast accurately.
In medium-term production planning, there can be substantial economic potential in performing summer shutdown of certain production units. The shutdown decision carries significant risk, due to changing seasonal weather patterns. Based on 38 years of weather data, the uncertainty on the timing of the optimal decision is estimated. This information is used to develop practical decision rules that are robust to rare weather events and capable of realizing more than 90% of the potential savings from summer shutdown.
Long-term production planning decisions regarding investments in future district heating production systems are affected by uncertainty from changing electricity prices, fuel prices and investment cost for technology. The effects of these uncertainties on a cost-optimal heat production system are explored, usingwell-established production and storage technologies and extensive multivariate sensitivity analysis. The optimal technology choices are highly stable and, taxes aside, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the cost-optimal heat production systems. However, the uncertainty on the exact capacity allocation is substantial. Excluding heat production based on fossil fuels increases the uncertainty on the system cost, but drastically reduces the uncertainty on the optimal capacity allocation
Tårup Lund udgravningsrapport (excavation report): KTM840 Tåruplund, Frørup sogn, Vindinge herred, tidl. Svendborg amt. Sted nr. 09.06.06. Sb.nr. 63.
Get PDFSom en del af et forskningsprojekt om marksystemerne fra 1. årtusinde f.v.t., som i litteraturen oftest benævnes oldtidsagre, gennemførtes d. 4. oktober 2016 en mindre undersøgelse af forekomsten i Tårup Lund på Østfyn. Formålet var primært at tilvejebringe materiale til 14C- og OSL-datering til afklaring af, over hvor lang tid opbygningen af terrassekanter og skelvolde var foregået
Data Management in Practice Supplementary Files
Get PDFThis collection of supplementary files relate to the report: “Data Management in Practice Results and Evaluation”. The report presents the results of the Data Management i Praksis (DMiP) project (in English: Data Management in Practice). The project was funded by Denmark’s Electronic Research Library (DEFF), the National Danish Archives and the participating main Danish libraries. The following partners participated in the project: Aalborg University Library, Danish e-Infrastructure Cooperation (DeIC), DTU Library, Roskilde University Library, The Danish National Archives, Royal Danish Library and The University Library of Southern Denmark.The general objective of the project was to establish a Danish setup covering all aspects of the lifecycle of research data: from application, through the research phase, and finally to the dissemination of results and sharing of research data. The setup was to be based on researchers’ demands, and the suggestions and results of the project were to be at an international level. The project should also demonstrate that research libraries have a role to play regarding research data. Furthermore, the project should ensure development of competences at the libraries, which can then be used in the future process of managing research data
Boes Skov I Boes Skov I udgravningsberetning (excavation report): SBM 1531 Boes Skov I, Alken, Dover sogn, Hjemlev herred, Skanderborg amt, 160203-335
No full textEfter prøveudgravningen af matrikel 2b blev der i juni 2016 foretaget udgravning af et system af oldtidsagre. Der blev foretaget udgravninger i skoven og på den nærliggende mark vest herfor, hvor et aktivitetsområde med flere gruber blev afdækket. Sammenlagt blev der åbnet et område på 398 m2. Aktivitetsområdet rummer flere keramikrige gruber, ildsteder samt en kogestensgrube. På baggrund af keramikken kan oldtidsagrene og grubekomplekset dateres til omtrent den samme periode: yngre bronzealder-førromersk jernalder med en koncentration i førromersk jernalder periode 1. Aktivitetsområdet er tegnet i 1:10 til 1:50, oversigtskortene er 1:75 til 1:250 og enkelte øvrige anlæg er tegnet i 1:20.
A multi-methodology and sustainability-supporting framework for implementation and assessment of a holistic building renovation: Implementation and assessment of a holistic sustainable building renovation
No full textFuture building renovation concerns more holistic perspectives related to the sustainability seen in a wider range of objectives/criteria facilitated by the renovation scenarios. Renovation should be a means of improving and developing buildings to meet the needs and challenges of the future and of making homeowners and tenants less vulnerable due to rising energy costs in the future. There is a great potential for reducing energy consumption in existing buildings. However, that does not mean compromising on the quality and architectural values that make the buildings special. Therefore, existing buildings cannot simply be renovated, but must undergo a deep transformation to comply with wider range of objectives/criteria. That includes and addresses the “hard” objectives/criteria (quantitative/measurable criteria such as energy consumption or energy generation) and the “soft” objectives/criteria (qualitative/immeasurable criteria such as spatial quality) in parallel. These objectives both can be achieved, if holistic renovation scenarios are generated each time the buildings are renovated by focus on addressing both the mentioned objectives/criteria. In this framework, the major difference between a deep building renovation and an ordinary one is a commitment to a holistic approach in which objectives/criteria are targeted early in the design stages and subsequently are considered for their interdependence throughout sustainability perspectives.A review of recent research has revealed that the present efforts on sustainable objectives fulfilment in renovation projects are not sufficient. It demonstrates compounding the typical challenges of a sustainable retrofitting from theory to implement stages is lack of an appropriate design methodology. It should take into account retrofitting projects initially in order to interact with the different stakeholders and then to embark on the sustainability objectives/criteria in its full sense. It should assist to identify, manage, and evaluate the holistic objectives among various alternative retrofitting solutions during the early design stages. In this perspective, the present thesis has been developed according to the following objectives:a) It primarily considers building renovation as a complex messy/wicked problem. As such, it gives details on how combinations of methods that are parts of SSM (Soft Systems Methodologies) and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making Methods) are able to cope with its complexity. It consequently develops a methodology, which is entitled Holistic Multi-methodology for Building Renovation – HMSR. The HMSR serve as a means to structure retrofitting problems in accordance with the sustainability in its full sense to support the decision-making and help to develop most appropriate retrofitting scenarios. b) It addresses a new simplified holistic sustainability decision-making support framework, which applies to the structures of the built environment for building renovation projects. The developed framework can be applied during different project stages and to assist in the consideration of the sustainability issues through support of decision-making and communication with relevant stakeholders. It should be noted that, the framework can be considered not only as an abstract model but a bound method of planning and design as well as evaluating and comparing retrofitting projects.c) It investigates development of a Decision Support System - DSS for generating renovation scenarios with the aims to represent and navigate across existing dependencies. As such, the renovation sustainability objectives/criteria and the entire list of renovation approaches are discovered, explored and structured through development of a Domain Mapping Matrix - DMM. A major advantage of the DMM is in its compactness and ability to provide a systematic mapping among the items (represented in rows and columns) that is clear and easy to read regardless of size. It considers and demonstrates what the values are (sustainability objectives/criteria), how they can be created (application of renovation approaches), and where the value can be added by generation of the integrated renovation scenarios (use of the DMM) in renovation context.d) It expands a conceptual framework under the topic of Tectonic Sustainable Building Design (TSBD). The TSBD seeks for interaction between architecture, sustainability objectives and an equipped design process. It is therefore attached to the tectonics (refers to architectural theory), the sustainability (refers to the holistic objectives) and a holistic multi-methodology - HMSR (refers to the integrated design methodology). By focusing on TSBD thinking in the field of building renovation, one forms a strategy of establishing a link between the intentions embedded in the architectural transformation and the way these are perceived by the user/owner of the building. Once this is established, the framework is intended to serve as a platform for refining and improving the contemporary building industry seen in the light of sustainability, by supporting the decision-making in the development of holistic renovation scenarios.The research strategy employed in this thesis presents characteristics of two research types, namely the qualitative research approach, and the inter- or transdisciplinary research throughout mode 2. It therefore calls for an inductive research approach and involves an interpretive approach and comparative analysis to its subject matter. In order to enrich and validate the elements and principles of the above objectives, the thesis analyses 10 European renovation research projects, the Danish SIGMA database (by Molio[1]), as well as a case study linking to an ongoing renovation research project which is entitled RE-VALUE[2]. The case study is Section 3 of Skovgårdsparken[3] located in Brabrand, Denmark. It is a social housing complex (including nine blocks), and has been renovated by Brabrand Housing Association.The future of the research in this thesis concerns expanding of the TSBD framework for Building Design in general. That means move from building renovation to design of new buildings.[1] https://molio.dk/molio-prisdata/prisdata-footer/brug-molio-prisdata/[2] http://www.revalue.dk[3] https://www.bbbo.dk/projekter/skovgaardsparken
TractorEYE: Vision-based Real-time Detection for Autonomous Vehicles in Agriculture
Get PDFAgricultural vehicles such as tractors and harvesters have for decades been able to navigate automatically and more efficiently using commercially available products such as auto-steering and tractor-guidance systems. However, a human operator is still required inside the vehicle to ensure the safety of vehicle and especially surroundings such as humans and animals. To get fully autonomous vehicles certified for farming, computer vision algorithms and sensor technologies must detect obstacles with equivalent or better than human-level performance. Furthermore, detections must run in real-time to allow vehicles to actuate and avoid collision.This thesis proposes a detection system (TractorEYE), a dataset (FieldSAFE), and procedures to fuse information from multiple sensor technologies to improve detection of obstacles and to generate a map. TractorEYE is a multi-sensor detection system for autonomous vehicles in agriculture. The multi-sensor system consists of three hardware synchronized and registered sensors (stereo camera, thermal camera and multi-beam lidar) mounted on/in a ruggedized and water-resistant casing. Algorithms have been developed to run a total of six detection algorithms (four for rgb camera, one for thermal camera and one for a Multi-beam lidar) and fuse detection information in a common format using either 3D positions or Inverse Sensor Models. A GPU powered computational platform is able to run detection algorithms online. For the rgb camera, a deep learning algorithm is proposed DeepAnomaly to perform real-time anomaly detection of distant, heavy occluded and unknown obstacles in agriculture. DeepAnomaly is -- compared to a state-of-the-art object detector Faster R-CNN -- for an agricultural use-case able to detect humans better and at longer ranges (45-90m) using a smaller memory footprint and 7.3-times faster processing. Low memory footprint and fast processing makes DeepAnomaly suitable for real-time applications running on an embedded GPU. FieldSAFE is a multi-modal dataset for detection of static and moving obstacles in agriculture. The dataset includes synchronized recordings from a rgb camera, stereo camera, thermal camera, 360-degree camera, lidar and radar. Precise localization and pose is provided using IMU and GPS. Ground truth of static and moving obstacles (humans, mannequin dolls, barrels, buildings, vehicles, and vegetation) are available as an annotated orthophoto and GPS coordinates for moving obstacles. Detection information from multiple detection algorithms and sensors are fused into a map using Inverse Sensor Models and occupancy grid maps. This thesis presented many scientific contribution and state-of-the-art within perception for autonomous tractors; this includes a dataset, sensor platform, detection algorithms and procedures to perform multi-sensor fusion. Furthermore, important engineering contributions to autonomous farming vehicles are presented such as easily applicable, open-source software packages and algorithms that have been demonstrated in an end-to-end real-time detection system. The contributions of this thesis have demonstrated, addressed and solved critical issues to utilize camera-based perception systems that are essential to make autonomous vehicles in agriculture a reality
Unge i bandegrupperinger. Hvad ved vi – og hvad ved vi ikke? En forskningsopsamling over national og international viden om unge i bander
No full textDenne forsknings- og vidensopsamling præsenterer international, nordisk og dansk forskning og viden på området knyttet til unge i bandegrupperinger.Forsknings- og vidensopsamlingen udgør del II af et samlet forskningsprojekt, som har fokus på unge mænd i bandegrupperinger, der har forløbet siden januar 2013. Tidligere i projektforløbet er udkommet rapport nr. I med titlen ”Stemmer fra en bande – Unge bandemedlemmers egne fortællinger om opvækst, hverdagsliv og fremtid”.Forskningsprojektet omfattede imidlertid også en tidsmæssig og økonomisk mulighed for at udarbejde en forsknings- og vidensopsamling specifikt med fokus på at indkredse eksisterende forskningsbaseret viden på området knyttet til unge i bandegrupperinger, både i dansk og international sammenhæng – og det er denne, der nu foreligger i denne rapport. Tredje og sidste rapport (rapport del III) præsenterer resultaterne af den del af forskningsprojektet, der har haft fokus på de socialpædagogiske indsatser, der landet over iværksættes i forskellige former til forebyggelse af tilknytning til bandegruppering, såvel som med fokus på indsatser, der hjælper unge til at forlade bandegrupperinger. Her inddrages de professionelles arbejde, det vil sige dem, der på forskellig vis arbejder med de unge i bandegrupperinger, deres viden og erfaringer og de sociale og socialpædagogiske indsatser, teorier og metoder, som de professionelle arbejder ud fra. Den tredje og sidste rapport i det samlede forskningsprojekt om unge mænd i bandegrupperinger forventes at udkomme i december 2018
Skolefaglige kort- og langtidseffekter af intensive læringsforløb: Egmont Fondens signaturprojekt Lær for Livet. Fagligt notat fra den kvantitative del af følgeforskning af Lær for Livet Nr. 1
No full textDette er et fagligt notat, der bygger på data fra følgeforskningen af Egmont Fondens læringsprogram Lær for Livet.Nationalt og internationalt har kvantitativt dokumenterede skolefaglige langtidseffekter af projekter, der er bygget op omkring intensive læringsforløb/turbolæring, været efterlyst. I Danmark har spørgsmålet om faglig langtidseffekt generelt optaget såvel projektsegmenterne som Undervisningsministeriet, og svaret er fortsat, at der savnes dokumenteret forskningsbaseret viden herom.Der er nu forskningsgrupper og konsulentfirmaer, der er på vej med skolefaglige effektstudier, blandt andet ifm. med Løkkefondens DrengeAkademiet og Undervisningsministeriets satspuljeprojekt ’Turboforløb for fagligt udsatte elever’, og sammen med andre undersøgelser vil der i de kommende år komme mere forskningsbaseret viden til belysning af skolefaglige langtidseffekter af intensive læringsforløb og turbolæring.Egmont Fondens Lær for Livet-projekt har fra starten været designet med løbende indhentning af fagligt sammenlignelige test fra camp til camp, og det har gjort det muligt for følgeforskningsprojektet at give kvalificerede bud på og svar på spørgsmålet om skolefaglige kort- og langtidseffekter af intensive læringsforløb som bidrag til fælles viden på tværs af de forskellige projekter og initiativer i tilknytning til intensive læringsforløb og turbolæring
EMPOWER4U: Fra udsat anbragt til egen tilværelse
Get PDFEMPOWER4U er et følgeforsknings- og udviklingsprojekt, der har til formål at udvikle udsatte anbragte/tidligere anbragte unge personligt og socialt, så de rustes til at klare overgangen fra anbragt til egen tilværelse. Projektforløbet har til hensigt at styrke de udsatte unges livsduelighed gennem udvikling af de unges mentale robusthed og deres personlige og sociale kompetencer. En styrkelse heraf vil forbedre de unges tro på egne evner og dermed forbedre forudsætningerne for at kunne klare sig i egen bolig, gennemføre en uddannelse og/eller få et arbejde, som den unge vedholdende kan beholde.I såvel forskningen som ved efterværnsindsats er der en tendens til at fokusere på de mere hårde kompetencer, hvor de unges succes og mulighed for at kunne leve et godt og selvstændigt voksenliv typisk vurderes på baggrund af, hvor godt den unge klarer sig i forhold til at opnå en uddannelse, fastholde et arbejde, betale sine regninger og holde sig væk fra kriminalitet og misbrug. Risikoen ved dette perspektiv er, at de mere bløde kompetencer som kommunikation, selvregulering, selvværd, netværk og relationer bliver ignoreret. Disse personlige og sociale kompetencer er imidlertid helt centrale i forhold til at sikre, at de unge også mentalt er rustet til at kunne varetage en selvstændig voksentilværelse. Det fulde potentiale i en indsats opnås bedst ved et balanceret fokus på både hårde og bløde kompetencer, som bl.a. fremhævet af Undervisningsministeriet EMPOWER4U skal supplere efterværnsindsatsen hårde fokus ved at tage udgangspunkt i at styrke den enkeltes livsduelighed. EMPOWER4U udvikler og styrker den unges mentale, sociale og personlige kompetencer.I denne rapport beskrives første fase af EMPOWER4U, der løber over ét år med deltagelse af 39 unge og består af intensive flerdages camps kombineret med individuel mentor støtte til de unge samt opfølgende tjek-ind dage med forankring og evaluering.
Project Half Double: Addendum: Current Results for Phase 1, January 2017
Get PDFThe Half Double mission: Project Half Double has a clear mission. We want to succeed in finding a project methodology that can increase the success rate of our projects while increasing the development speed of new products and services. We are convinced that by doing so we can strengthen the competitiveness of Denmark and play an important role in the battle for jobs and future welfare. The overall goal is to deliver “Projects in half the time with double the impact” where projects in half the time should be understood as half the time to impact (benefit realization, effect is achieved) and not as half the time for project execution. The Half Double project journey: It all began in May 2013 when we asked ourselves: How do we create a new and radical project paradigm that can create successful projects? Today we are a movement of hundreds of passionate project people, and it grows larger by the day. The formal part of Project Half Double was initiated in June 2015; it is divided into two phases where phase 1 took place from June 2015 to June 2016 with seven pilot projects, and phase 2 is in progress from July 2016 to July 2017 with 10 pilot projects.The Half Double consortium: Implement Consulting Group is leading the project as well as establishing and managing the collaboration with the pilot project companies in terms of methodology. Aarhus University and the Technical University of Denmark will evaluate the impact of the pilot projects and legitimize the methodology in academia.The Danish Industry Foundation, an independent philanthropic foundation, is contributing to the project financially with DKK 13.8 million.About the addendum: We published the report “Preliminary results for phase 1” in June 2016 (Svejvig, Ehlers et al. 2016). It is time to follow up on the Phase 1 pilot projects and to document their development.The purpose of this addendum is thus to document the development in the pilot projects from June 2016 to January 2017 with particular focus on the impact they have created.This Addendum is a supplement and should be read in conjunction with the Phase 1 report, which will give the reader relevant further information.The target group for this report is practitioners in Danish industry and society in general.The report was prepared by a responsible editorial team from Aarhus University.The addendum was prepared from December 2016 to January 2017, which means that late data about pilot projects from January 2017 is not included in this report