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Subjective well‐being of children with special educational needs: Longitudinal predictors using machine learning
No full textChildren with special educational needs (SEN) are a diverse group facing numerous challenges related to well-being and mental health. Understanding the predictors of well-being in this population requires the incorporation of diverse factors along with approaches that can uncover complexity in how these factors work together to influence well-being. We longitudinally predicted subjective well-being in a group of children with diverse special educational needs (N = 499; M = 8.4 ± 0.9 years). Thirty-two variables - ranging from demographics to various categories of life experiences - were used as predictors for both nonlinear machine learning and classical linear classifiers. Nonlinear machine learning classifiers exhibited much performance in predicting subjective well-being (F1 score = 0.72 to 0.84) compared to traditional linear classifiers. Overall, across all children, prior subjective well-being, numeracy, literacy skills, and interpersonal dimensions played important roles. However, clustering further identified four distinct clusters sharing important predictors: a ‘socializer’ cluster dominated by interpersonal functioning predictors, an ‘analyzer’ cluster emphasizing academic skills predictors, and two clusters with more diverse sets of important predictors. Our research highlights the multiple pathways toward well-being in children with SEN as uncovered by machine learning, with implications for understanding and supporting their well-being
Unprecedented flooding in Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region (southern Brazil) in May 2024: Causes, risks, and impacts
No full textOn May 2, 2024, Porto Alegre in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, experienced a historic flood surpassing the catastrophic 1941 event. The flood's peak water level of 535 cm was 59 cm higher than in 1941, driven by extreme precipitation anomalies and land use changes in the Regional Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, with rainfall accumulations up to 500 mm in May 2024. Severe urban flooding impacted riverbanks and low-lying areas, causing significant property damage, displacement, and disruption of essential services. Agricultural lands and grasslands were extensively affected. Detailed maps from May 3 to May 8, 2024, showed floodwaters rising from 5.5 m to 8 m. Validation sample points ensured data accuracy, and flood model validation metrics (NSE = 0.63, R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 0.51 m) demonstrated the model's predictive accuracy. Water level fluctuations at Cais Guaíba station revealed rapid rise and recession periods typical of major floods. This study highlights the urgent need for effective flood mitigation strategies, informed by accurate modeling and risk assessment, to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure. Enhancing resilience through improved urban planning, infrastructure investment, and environmental conservation is crucial to safeguarding Porto Alegre and the broader RMPOA region from future extreme weather events. These findings offer valuable insights for other flood-prone tropical and developing regions, where the combined effects of urban expansion and intensifying climate extremes similarly increase flood risk
Changes in global fluvial sediment concentrations and fluxes between 1985 and 2020
No full textFluvial sediment transport, a key pathway for global biogeochemical cycling, has changed markedly in the Anthropocene. However, disaggregating the compound effects of anthropogenic stresses on fluvial sediment transport at the global scale remains a challenge. Here we map the suspended sediment concentrations for global river channels, based on satellite observations, between 1985 and 2020, and estimate long-term changes in land–ocean sediment transfer. We find significant (P < 0.05) changes in suspended sediment concentrations in 67.8% (3.2 × 105 km) of the examined river channel length, with 43.4% (2.05 × 105 km) displaying a significant increasing trend, driven mainly by rising rainfall erosion and climate warming. Consequently, a global net increase (+0.58 Gt year−1) in land–ocean sediment flux has been observed over the past four decades, despite sediment trapping by recently constructed dams, mostly in Asia. Our study provides a new baseline for source-to-sink fluvial transport in the Anthropocene that can inform global water resource management and delta management and protection
Practical paths to halt elevation loss in Vietnamese Mekong Delta
No full textThe open access publication is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100335Despite considering as one of the world's most vulnerable delta regions, the local pressures and actionable solutions to address elevation loss in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) remain insufficiently studied. The VMD—39 000 km² that feeds 18 million people—is sinking because four pressures act in concert: upstream dams have already cut sediment delivery by 70 %–83 % (projected 96 % if all planned projects proceed), mean sea level is rising 1.5–2 cm/yr, river-bed sand mining now removes about 3 Mm³/yr and deepens channels by up to 15 cm/yr, and groundwater withdrawals of approximately 2.5 Mm³/day have accelerated land-surface subsidence from smaller than 3 cm/yr in 2006–2010 to peaks of 5–6 cm/yr today. Scenario modelling shows that halving pumping would stabilize aquifer heads and cut subsidence by about 50 % within a decade, while provincial sand-quota cuts of 30 %–50 % would slow bed incision and ease salinity intrusion, reducing the irrigation deficits that drive further pumping. While the large-scale causes of subsidence (dams, sea level rise, sand mining, groundwater extraction) are well recognized, actionable, local-level management solutions to immediately slow subsidence and salinity intrusion—independent of slow international negotiations—have been underexplored and under-implemented. Because dam and climate remedies depend on slow transboundary negotiations, we argue for a concentric policy strategy that first tightens sand-mining licenses, enforces tiered groundwater tariffs, and scales up rain- and surface-water alternatives, buying time for longer-term basin and climate agreements. These locally actionable measures can measurably bend the subsidence curve and offer a transferable template for sustaining deltas worldwide.RI 10/22 EPRP 1/21 EPARC 1/21 EPARC 2/23 E
Environmental pressures on livelihood transformation in the Vietnamese Mekong delta: Implications and adaptive pathways
No full textEnvironmental pressures have significantly impacted agricultural land use in deltas worldwide, leading to transformative changes in livelihoods. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a vital region for national food security and global agricultural markets but is threatened by climate change, hydropower dams, sand mining, and excessive groundwater extraction. These pressures challenge the VMD's agricultural productivity and sustainability in the Anthropocene era. Despite efforts to foster resilience, there remains a critical gap in understanding how these agricultural transformations respond to environmental challenges. This review explores the multifaceted relationship between livelihood transformations and environmental pressures in the VMD, offering a comprehensive analysis of agricultural shifts over the past 50 years to identify viable adaptation pathways. Our review highlights that climate change-induced sea level rise and hydropower dam development both cause an increase in salinity intrusion, damage many agricultural lands and lead to substantial land use change and livelihood transformation, particularly in the floodplains and coastal areas. Additionally, sand mining has significantly influenced livelihood transitions in urban areas by causing riverbank erosion and leading to agricultural land losses. Furthermore, extensive groundwater extraction instigating land subsidence triggers land allocation, particularly in coastal zones. We emphasize the importance of adaptive management at both delta-wide and farm-level scales, integrating stakeholder engagement with institutional improvements. This approach aims to address environmental impacts while pursuing a pathway incorporating nature-based solutions and smart technologies to enhance the sustainability of agricultural systems in the VMD under current and future environmental pressures. Our review provides a foundation for developing adaptive strategies that promote sustainable development and resilience in deltaic environments and share knowledge for similar deltas worldwide.RP 11/22 EPRI 10/22 EPRP 1/21 EPARC 1/21 EPARC 2/23 E
School-level academic and cultural demands and resources: Their role in immigrant students’ motivation and achievement
No full textThe open access publication is available at https://doi.org/10.1037/edu0000972The present investigation applied the academic and cultural demands–resources framework to better understand the academic functioning of immigrant high school students. Among a sample of 4,494 immigrant students from 545 schools, multilevel structural equation modeling tested the hypothesized role of academic demands (e.g., resource shortage) and resources (e.g., school logistic support), and cultural demands (e.g., immigrant socioeconomic disadvantage) and resources (e.g., cultural learning) in predicting motivation (self-efficacy, valuing)—and, in turn, the extent to which these demands, resources, and motivation predicted academic performance (achievement). Supporting our hypotheses, findings revealed that school-level academic and cultural demands predicted lower academic motivation and achievement; school-level academic and cultural resources predicted higher motivation and achievement; and, at student and school levels, motivation predicted higher achievement. These findings extend a previous student-level application of the academic and cultural demands–resources framework to show that there are school-level academic and cultural demands and resources in immigrant students’ academic lives that are linked to their motivation and achievement
Factors influencing scientific reasoning ability in junior secondary students: Examining gender and grade-level predictive differences
No full textScientific reasoning ability (SRA) plays a critical role in advancing science education and cultivating analytical skills among junior secondary students. This study investigates the extent to which five key factors—science achievement, mathematics achievement, spatial ability, reading comprehension skills, and interest in science—predict students' SRA. A sample of 2261 junior secondary students was assessed, and multiple regression analyses revealed that all variables, except mathematics achievement, were significant predictiors of SRA. The strength of these predictive relationships varied across grade levels and gender groups. Stepwise regression analysis further indicated that gender and grade level interactively impacted the predictive strength of these factors. Across the overall sample and subgroup analyses, science achievement consistently emerged as the strongest predictor, followed by spatial ability. Our findings are discussed within the broader literature and offer important implications for science education
The longitudinal (in)stability and cognitive underpinnings of children’s cheating behavior
No full textThe open access publication is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jecp.2025.106222There has been a long-standing debate about whether cheating is a stable behavior across various situations. However, there is a notable gap in our understanding about whether children’s cheating behavior could exhibit stability over time. Moreover, research on the cognitive correlates of children’s cheating is limited, yet exploring these cognitive factors is essential for understanding how children make (dis)honest decisions. This study aimed to test the longitudinal stability in children’s cheating tendency and frequency and to explore the cognitive underpinnings of cheating behavior (theory of mind, inhibitory control, and free will belief). The study involved 100 children aged 3 to 6 years who were initially tested at Time 1, and 89 of these participants were retested at Time 2 approximately 1 year later. Cheating behavior was measured using a die-rolling game over Zoom, and three different cognitive abilities were measured. The results indicated that children’s cheating tendency was stable over a year-long interval, whereas cheating frequency did not show longitudinal stability. Moreover, the study found that free will belief was related to cheating behavior, whereas theory of mind and inhibitory control were not. Specifically, children’s belief in the free will to inhibit their desires, rather than their actual ability to inhibit the desires, was associated with a reduced frequency and likelihood of cheating. The findings can provide insight into the developmental origin of children’s decisions to refrain from cheating.OER 16/22 Y
