FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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A pan-European analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of yield gap and abiotic stresses for wheat
No full textEnvironment characterization and yield gap analysis are important for plant breeding to understand genotype by environment interactions and to optimize field trial networks. This understanding is a key aspect to reach the needed improvements in crop yield to achieve food security and for agricultural and environment policy evaluations. However, a characterization of abiotic stress scenarios of their recent changes at the European level for rainfed wheat are still missing. Here, wheat responses to various combinations of environmental stresses (that is, water, nitrogen and temperature limitations) were simulated at a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km for the period 1985-2014. Results showed that at the European level, environmental stresses have resulted in an average production loss of 111.4 million tons per annum, of which 59% was contributed to by drought. Over the studied period, simulated environmental yield gap decreased at a rate of 0.22% per annum, in particular water-limited yield gap has decreased at lower latitudes but it has increased in continental regions. Five environment types were identified based on daily patterns of total above ground biomass loss due to water deficit. The spatio-temporal patterns of the identified environment types show that the occurrence probability of environments without drought or with mild water shortage has been increasing at the European level while that of mild water stress from the vegetative stage onwards and severe water shortage between anthesis and maturity has been decreasing. Among the nine largest wheat producing European countries, these changes were particularly significant in Italy, Romania and Spai
Integrated land use modelling — a course for doctoral students
No full textThe course on “Integrated land use modelling” took place at BOKU Vienna between 24. - 28. April 2017. It was a five-days course capturing many aspects in quantitative integrated land use modelling using GAMS (see course outline). 10 students have participated the course coming from several countries. Students finishing the course have received 3 ECTS points. The course was offered by BOKU and the Doctoral Certificate Program in Agricultural Economics (https://www.agraroekonomik.de/index.html).
Does collaborative farm-scale modelling address current challenges and future opportunities?
Full text linkResources required increasing, resources available decreasingFarm-scale modellers will need to make strategic decisionsSingle-owner modelsMay continue with additional resourcesRisk of ‘succession’ problemCommunity modelling is an alternativeNeed to continue building a community of farm modellersThe results will be published as a peer-reviewed article
MACSUR - Second Phase Report
Full text linkIn order to overcome the rigorous thematic orientation during the first phase of MACSUR with three groups organized according to academic fields, a new structure was developed for MACSUR2. In cross cutting activities topics were identified that required the interaction and collaboration of researchers from a range of different scientific disciplines. During the second phase of MACSUR new groups of researchers came on board. This made it possible to extend the number of regional case studies. In some larger countries like Italy, Poland und UK more than one group were working on different regions. An overview was presented at the workshop for policymakers in Brussels in May 2016. Deliverables and milestonesExcellent joint research in the particular field to respond to questions in the Strategic Research Agenda:Researchers from University of Leeds, Aberystwyth University and Scotland's Rural College have developed a novel method for a spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impact of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.Researchers from University of Leeds, Centre for Agricultural Research of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Colombia) and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (Germany) have developed a novel method to estimating the land use changes for maize and soybean production by 2100 on a global scale.Increase and facilitate transnational cooperation and coordination between excellent researchers and research organisations, building a progressive and long-lasting network:Collaboration with agricultural, meteorological agencies and Escuela Politécnica Nacional from Ecuador to develop a research line on agricultural impacts and adaptation to climate change, with focus on water resourcesAdaptation in Austrian cattle and milk production (ADAPT-CATMILK). Austrian Climate Research Programme research grant. Partners: WIFO, BOKU, University Cranfield, Thünen InstituteCoordination of Spanish participation in the Joint Programming Initiative "Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI)". Phase 1 http://www.chil.org/profile/spanish.macsur/main.Technical efficiency and challenges of the agricultural sector in Austria and New Zealand. Research proposal submitted to the Austrian Chamber of Agriculture.Coordination of a joint proposal in the Joint Programming Initiative "Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI)". Phase 2 http://www.chil.org/profile/spanish.macsur/main (Partners participating: MTT Agrifood Finland, University of Bonn, INRA France, Polytechnical University of Madrid )Submission of two research projects with partners involved in MACSUR and private partners to the call FACCE/ERANET+ Climate Smart AgricultureJPI FACCE - SURPLUS. Coordination of a joint application “Towards sustainably intensified and resilient production systems in European Agriculture. Prospects for integrating dairy and bioenergy production systems (DAIRYENERGY)”, submitted 04.03.2015. MACSUR partners from Norway, Belgium, Italy."H2020 Call: H2020-SFS-2016-2017; (Sustainable Food Security – Resilient and resource-efficient value chains) Topic: SFS-02-2016. Stage II. DIVERSify: Designing InnoVative plant teams for Ecosystem Resilience and agricultural Sustainability"Links created to other EU groups: with the collaboration started with Edwin Haas (Germany) and Stefan Olin (Sweden). There is an Australian link created with Matthew Harrison. In Europe there is also an active contact in Germany (for the Monica model) and in Poland (for Stics).Develop research capacity in the particular field, to join learning/training activities (e.g. mobility) and to share infrastructures.Over the reporting period nearly 40 visiting scientists were hosted in MACSUR labs for joint research/ learning/training activities. In total, 31 PhD theses were awarded over the reporting period.AgMIP, Memorandum of Understanding signed 2014-02-19Global Research Alliance's Animal Health and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity Network and MACSUR's Task on Animal Health and Greenhouse Gas Emissions organising a joint workshop for MACSUR 2H2020 SFS42-2016. PEANUTSSA Stage-1-proposal submitted February 2016. MACSUR partners Thünen Institute, ILVO, SRUC, James Hutton Institute and non-MACSUR members.FACCE ERAGAS 'CEDERS' (2017-2020
Online maps of Yield Gaps of cereals across Europe
Full text linkThe yield gap and water productivity analysis of key cereal crops in Europe is completed and results are available through www.yieldgap.or
Assessing the Importance of Accounting for the Impacts of Global Climate Change on Relative Competitiveness and International Trade in the Agricultural Sector
No full textClimate change is expected to cause substantial changes in agricultural productivity across the globe. Because the impacts will differ between crops, production practices, and regions, there will be changes in the relative profitability of alternative land uses and effects on the relative competitiveness of production in different countries. However, many previous studies have focused on climate change impacts in one country or region without explicitly assessing the importance of impacts on the rest of the world in determining the net impacts on the focus country or region. Even when they include endogenous trade flows, domestic partial equilibrium models generally do not capture productivity changes in the rest of the world in detail and therefore do not adequately address impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, and global markets and associated food security outcomes. In this study, we apply the GLObal BIOsphere Model (GLOBIOM), which is a detailed global partial equilibrium model of agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy to evaluate the relative contribution of direct climate change impacts on agriculture occurring within a country vs. those taking place in the rest of the world. We run a set of scenarios for multiple major agricultural regions comparing the outcomes when climate impacts are applied only to that region relative to applied to all regions of the world, using multiple climate scenarios and alternative assumptions regarding trade flexibility. This enables us to compare the relative importance of accounting for impacts outside the country of interest and the extent to which the relative impacts differ for developing vs. developed countries as well as for major commodity exporters vs. importers
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change
Full text linkClimate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change
Recent advances in integrated assessments of climate change impacts on European agriculture.
No full textThe broad EU public expects agriculture to improve global food security, protect the environment and sustain rural communities and landscapes. Agricultural policy makers must additionally consider resource scarcity and degradation, loss of biodiversity, climate change adaptation and, increasingly, mitigation. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) can simultaneously consider key agricultural drivers and the main economic and environmental outcomes in identifying opportunities and balancing trade-offs for EU agriculture in the future. In this review of recent and on-going European scale IAM studies, results are synthesized to quantify the range of uncertainty for key impact variables. Explicit attention is given to the drivers (climate change, socio-economic scenarios, technological) and adaptations considered, their relative importance across impact variables, feedbacks and cross-scale linkages. Crop management adaptations, widely demonstrated in regional studies, were found to have a large effect on crop yields as simulated with crop models, with relatively less influence on simulated economic variables. The few studies to simultaneously consider climate change and technological development, found yield trends offset yield losses due to climate change and be more important than adaptation. The MACSUR Coordinate Global and Regional Assessment (CGRA) seeks to explicitly model yields trends with crop models, partnering with the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) to understand the relative contribution of management and breeding to past trends. Examples of heat and drought risk analysis with crop models are presented, though their consideration in economic studies remains limited. Finally, opportunities are identified for cross-scale analysis and assessment within MACSUR
Integrated impact modelling of climate change and adaptation policies on land use and water resources in Austria"
Full text linkClimate change is a major driver of land use and ecosystems. Changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Autonomous adaptation by farmers can influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUW model, and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Stakeholder driven scenarios facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. Climate change scenarios are combined with socio-economic and policy pathways. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil and crop rotation management. The results show that the selected climate change and policy scenarios impact average agricultural gross margins by ±2%. However, regional impacts are more severe particularly under assumptions of decreasing precipitation patterns. The water protection policies can alleviate pressures compared to the business as usual scenario but do not lead to sufficient conditions in all watersheds. To conclude, the IIMF is able to capture the interfaces between water quality and land use and to cover multiple policy and climate scenarios. However, despite efforts to increase the robustness of data and model interfaces, uncertainties need to be tackled in subsequent studies
Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe
Full text linkAgricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined