FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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MACSUR Phase 1 Final Administrative Report: Public release
Get PDFMACSUR's foremost charge is improving the methodology for integrative inter-disciplinary modelling of European agriculture. In addition to technical changes, improvements include the involvement of stakeholders for setting research priorities, scenarios (if-then evaluations), and model parameters to more realistic or region-specific values. The Knowledge Hub currently brings together 300 members from 18 countries and has generated 300 scientific papers, over 500 presentations and 20 workshops and conferences within the first three years. Scientific results are communicated in conferences and workshops, where policymakers take part by invitation or because of professional interest. These events also provide opportunities for direct dialogues between policymakers and scientists. The primary form of output of the research network is scientific publications that are cited in policy documents by relevant administrative departments, ministries, intergovernmental agencies, and directorate-generals, and non-governmental interest groups. MACSUR members also contribute directly to policy documents as authors, e.g. the EEA's indicator report on CC impacts or the IPCC's 5th assessment report's chapter on food security.
Effects of climatic factors, drought risk and irrigation requirement on maize yield in the northeast farming region of China over 1961 to 2010
Get PDFThe Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is the most important and the largest rain-fed maize production region in China, accounting for 30% of China’s maize. We investigated the effects of climatic factors, drought risk and irrigation requirement on maize yield in different maize growth phases during 1961 to 2010 using a statistical analysis of observed yield from 44 stations in NFR. We divided the maize growing season into four growth phases, comprising seeding, vegetative, flowering and maturity. The dual crop coefficient was used to calculate crop evapotranspiration and soil water balance during the maize growing season. The effects of mean temperature, radiation, effective rainfall, water deficit, drought stress days, actual crop evapotranspiration (ETa) and irrigation requirement in different growth phases were included in the statistical model to predict maize yield. During the period 1961 to 2010, mean temperature increased significantly in all growth phases in NFR, while radiation decreased significantly in southern NFR in the seeding, vegetative and flowering phases. Effective rainfall increased in the seeding and vegetative phases leading to less water deficit, whereas decreased effective rainfall in the flowering and maturity phases enhanced water deficit. More days with drought stress were concentrated in western NFR where larger volumes of irrigation were needed. Our results indicate that the increase of mean temperature in the seeding and maturity phases was beneficial for maize yield, higher ETa in each growth phase would lead to yield increase, but too high rainfall would damage maize yield. The results also show that water deficit and drought stress days had significant negative effects on maize yield, and the absence of irrigation would manifest such effects on maize production in NFR. Therefore, the development of irrigation and drainage systems is highly needed for ensuring the stability of maize production in NFR. In addition, other adaptation measures like introducing new cultivars and optimizing soil and crop management to better conserve soil water would be beneficial for future maize production
The FACCE-ERA-Net Plus project “Climate smart Agriculture on Organic Soils” (CAOS)
No full textThe FACCE-ERA-Net Plus project “Climate smart Agriculture on Organic Soils” (CAOS) focuses on farmed organic soils, hotspots of vulnerability and GHG emissions in Europe. We propose to use wet organic soils as risk insurance in dry periods on farm/regional level, while water and soil management assures trafficability in wet conditions. Wet management systems abate peat degradation and therefore foster higher infiltration rates and ease subirrigation. Economically, wetness-adapted crops with stable yield quantity/quality for food, feed and bioenergy are needed. Convincing farmers and decision makers of profitable and resilient wet management systems on organic soils under climate change needs proof by on-farm experiments, historical evidence and bi-directional involvement.Overall, we aim to generate knowledge of climate smart agricultural system design on organic soils adapted to regional European conditions. CAOS will provide and distribute evidence that active management with control of groundwater levels, improved trafficability and alternative high productivity crops improves yield stability/quality and climate change resilience while mitigating GHG emissions and improving soil/water quality. We hypothesize that the strong potential for adaptation to increased climatic variability on farmed organic soil will facilitate mitigation of the largest GHG source from agriculture in Central/Northern Europe. At MACSUR conference, we present the project concept and first results
What drives meat consumption? Combining cross-country analysis with an applied trade model
No full textIn a cross country analysis using national data for both OECD and developing countries, we estimate a regression model with different coefficients for different drivers for per capita meat consumption. The model contains data from approximately 125 countries (depending on the variables included) on meat consumption and production, relative size of agricultural area and pasture and meadows, PPP adjusted consumer prices for meat (and for food as control variable), PPP adjusted GNI per capita, HDI, degree of urbanisation, religion and geographical/cultural belonging.A regression analysis has been conducted, using OLS with data from 2011 and an aggregation of all meat types as the dependent variable. In the results all of the mentioned variables have a significant impact on meat consumption.Based on a first scenario analysis which has been presented on a TradeM Workshop of MACSUR in September 2014, this paper will extend the approach of an estimated cross-country analysis to improve the demand elasticities in the MAGNET model for meat and meat products. Further other demand determining factors of meat consumption, e.g. behavioural change towards less meat consumption (vegetarian or vegan) derived from the regression analysis will be fed into the MAGNET model. This extended approach will help to analyse the resulting market effects of a changing demand pattern for meat. MAGNET will provide insights in consequences on supply and international trade for meat and meat products.The aim of this combined approach is to further explore the relationship between production and consumption, and to what extent the one is driving the other. Based on the application of the panel data method for a detailed demand analysis with the combination of the feedback from the supply and trade side based on the MAGNET model we will be able to provide a tool which is able to address the important questions of demand responses under different adaptation or mitigation strategies towards clime change, such as tax measures like fat taxes. This extended tool also contributes to an improved decision making process of policy makers under different options to respond to climate change issues – not only with regard to the supply side of agricultural production but also to the consumption side
Synergies between mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change in grassland-based farming systems
Get PDFClimate change mitigation and adaptation have generally been considered in separate settings for both scientific and policy viewpoints. Recently, it has been stressed (e.g. by the latest IPCC reports) the importance to consider both mitigation and adaptation from land management together. To date, although there is already large amount of studies considering climate mitigation and adaptation in relation to grassland-based systems, there are no studies that analyse the potential synergies and tradeoffs for the main climate change mitigation and adaptation measures within the current European Policy context. This paper reviews which mitigation and adaptation measures interact with each other and how, and it explores the potential limitations and strengths of the different policy instruments that may have an effect in European grassland-based livestock systems
Estimates of crop responses to climate change with quantified ranges of uncertainty
Get PDFIn estimating responses of crops to future climate realisations, it is necessary to understand and differentiate between the sources of uncertainty in climate models and how these lead to errors in estimating the past climate and biases in future projections, and how these affect crop model estimates. This paper investigates the complexities in using climate model projections representing different spatial scales within climate change impacts and adaptation studies. This is illustrated by simulating spring barley with three crop models run using site-specific observed, original (50•50 km) and bias corrected downscaled (site-specific) hindcast (1960-1990) weather data from the HadRM3 Regional Climate Model (RCM). Original and bias corrected downscaled weather data were evaluated against the observed data. The comparisons made between the crop models were in the light of lessons learned from this data evaluation. Though the bias correction downscaling method improved the match between observed and hindcast data, this did not always translate into better matching of crop models estimates. At four sites the original HadRM3 data produced near identical mean simulated yield values as from the observed weather data, despite differences in the weather data, giving a situation of ‘right results for the wrong reasons’. This was likely due to compensating errors in the input weather data and non-linearity in crop models processes, making interpretation of results problematic. Overall, bias correction downscaling improved the quality of simulated outputs. Understanding how biases in climate data manifest themselves in crop models gives greater confidence in the utility of the estimates produced using downscaled future climate projections. The results indicate implications on how future projections of climate change impacts are interpreted. Fundamentally, considerable care is required in determining the impact weather data sources have in climate change impact and adaptation studies, whether from individual models or ensembles
The availability of carbon sequestration data in Europe
Get PDFWith growing interest in the carbon sequestration potential of soils, experimental research and mapping projects have produced a wealth of datasets in this subject area. However, the coverage, quality and scope of available data vary widely across Europe, and the extent to which these data are accessible to experimental researchers and modellers is also highly variable. This report describes the availability of soil carbon data at the global and European levels, and reviews the on-line resources for accessing these data and meta-data. The extent to which researchers in the field share findings, based on institutional links in projects and on-line resources, is investigated. Future priorities for research and data accessibility relating to carbon sequestration are discussed. Many soil data resources are available online. Global and European soil data portals draw together much information from across Europe, and include the outcomes of major soil carbon mapping exercises. However, much project and national research is not accessible through these portals, and information on datasets derived from many research initiatives is difficult or impossible to locate online. Data on carbon sequestration (carbon fluxes in soils) specifically is more limited, although some such datasets are available through the general soil data resources described. Improved clarity in the presentation of research, and work to link more national and sub-national data to European and global online resources is required, with initiatives such as GSIF (Global Soil Information Facility) active in encouraging direct reporting of soil-related data at the global level. Priorities for research on SOC stocks include measuring carbon storage below the topsoil (>30cm), improving records of SOC in peatlands, improving the number and distribution of samples available for Europe-wide soil carbon mapping, and developing recognised methodological standards to allow easier comparisons of datasets. In the field of carbon sequestration research specifically, priorities include linking long-term SOC data to historical land use, developing understanding of the movement of SOC between top-soil and sub-soil and increasing dialogue between modellers and empirical researchers to improve dynamic modelling of SOC
A crop model ensemble analysis of wheat yield sensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation across a European transect
Get PDFImpact response surfaces (IRSs) were constructed to depict the sensitivity of modelled spring and winter wheat yields to systematic changes in baseline temperature (between -2°C and +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) as simulated by a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. The study was conducted across a latitudinal transect for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain.In spite of large differences in simulated yield responses to both baseline and changed climate between models, sites, crops and years, several common messages emerged. Ensemble average yields decline with warming (3-7% per 1°C) and decreased precipitation (3-9% per 10% decrease), but benefit from increased precipitation (0-8% per 10% increase). Yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the other sites. Inter-model variability is highest for baseline climate at the Spanish site but is affected little by changed climate. Model responses diverge most under warming at the Finnish and German sites for winter wheat. The IRS pattern of yield reliability tracks average yield levels.Optimal temperatures for present-day cultivars are below the baseline at the German and Spanish sites suggesting that adoption of cultivars with higher temperature requirements might already be advantageous, and increasingly so at all sites under future warming.The study was conducted in the CropM component of the FACCE-JPI/MACSUR project
Capacity building strategy
Get PDFIntroductionRaising the capacity of established researchersCapacity for cross-theme collaborationShort “Master Classes”Raising the capacity of early career researchersPhD/ECR training coursesTraining integrative and international modellers through a Marie Curie ITNRaising the capacity of our stakeholdersMACSUR input to the Advanced Training Partnership (ATP
Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty
Get PDFCommunication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report