FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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The role of CAP direct payment in the support and stabilisation of farm income: empirical evidences from a constant sample of Italian farms
Get PDFThe main objective of CAP Direct payments (DP) has been to increase and stabilise farm income together with a large number of additional goals (Gardner, 1991). Despite its importance, there are limited empirical evidences on farm income variability over time at farm level apart Vrolijk and Poppe (2008) and Vrolijk, de Bont, van der Veen, and Poppe (2009). The analysis focuses of the following research questions:• What is the amount of the support provided by DP? How the income of Italian farms will be affected by reductions of DP levels?• What is the extent of farm income variability over time? Is it the same in all types of farms?• Where is this variability coming from?• Do CAP direct payments reduce farm income variability? How do DP affect it? Are DP targeted to stabilise the income of those farms facing larger income variability? The analysis has been developed on the individual farms belonging to the whole Italian sample of the EU FADN farms during all years of the decade 2003-2012. The variability of farm income (FI) is assessed by calculating variance and Coefficient of Variation (CV) over the 10 year period for each farm for each relevant income component. The role of DP on income stabilisation is assessed by means of variance decomposition by income sources (Burt and Finley, 1968; El Benni and Finger, 2013; Mishra and El-Osta, 2001).The presence of DP allows for a reduction of the variability of farm income: the variability of FI when DP are not accounted for is higher than that of the whole FI. Finally, DP seem to be not targeted to those farms facing the highest level of market income variability. These results support the hypothesis that there is a potentially large room for better design the DP policy to reduce income variability
Ammonia and nitrous oxide emissions from grazing cattle in Kenya
No full textFertilized crops and livestock management are the main anthropogenic sources of ammonia (NH3). Ammonia emissions imply a N loss from cropping systems and have negative effects on ecosystems and human health. In Africa, it is believed that a substantial proportion of NH3 emissions results from widespread livestock management, whereas inorganic fertilizers might be of low importance. However, there is a lack of information on the mechanisms underlying the NH3 emissions derived from livestock management. Use of passive sampling approaches may enhance our knowledge on NH3 emissions by allowing systematic ecosystem investigations at a low cost; however, these techniques have not been critically evaluated for the Tropics. The main goals of our study are 1) to assess the livestock influence on the emissions of NH3 in tropical ecosystems and 2) the evaluation of experimental techniques for estimation of NH3 emissions, which could be further implemented in Africa without investment in sophisticated analytical equipment.The study was carried out in October 2014 at the farm of ILRI (Nairobi, Kenya). Ammonia fluxes from a fenced plot occupied by a herd of cows during daytime was estimated by both 1) the micrometeorological mass balance integrated horizontal flux (IHF) method and 2) the Eddy-covariance (EC) technique (using a sonic anemometer and a highly sensitive fast response NH3 trace gas monitor). Passive flux samplers (PFS) internally coated with oxalic acid were installed at different heights in 1 central and 3 background masts. PFS were exchanged every 2 days and NH3 trapped was measured colorimetrically. Soil N2O emissions were also estimated by manual chambers every 48 h along with inorganic N contents in the topsoil.Contrary to our expectations, NH3 cow's presence did not triggered NH3 emissions. Both IHF and EC showed very low NH3 emission values along the experiment, although sensitivity varied among methods (about 100 and 30 ng NH3 m-2 s-1 as obtained by the IHF method and EC, respectively). Heavy rainfall events (˃120 mm) may be responsible for lowered NH3 volatilization. Low soil nitrate concentrations, (<0.5 mg kg-1), suggested predominant N leaching after rainfall. Soil N2O emissions were negligible, showing a maximum of only 4.5 µg N-N2O m-2 h-1 during the first day. These preliminary results represent the first dataset of NH3 emissions under controlled conditions in tropical Africa, and provide the basis for further assessments of NH3 emissions and evaluations of techniques under different ecosystems and management scenarios
Climate change and policy impacts on protein crop production: a case study on integrated modeling
Get PDFThis paper addresses protein crop production in Europe. European food and feed industries highly depend on imported protein crops and derived products and climate change is likely to affect domestic protein crop production and thus the import dependency. The recent reform of EU agricultural policy reform aims at promoting climate friendly agricultural practices and stimulating the production of protein crops. We choose three contrasting climate change scenarios as well as specifications of the recent CAP reform in order to investigate how farmers might adapt to changing land use restrictions and climate conditions. Output response, land allocation and nitrogen use are the main variables of interest. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we apply an integrated modeling framework consisting of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. This model maximizes total gross margins by optimizing for land use and crop management practices for different scenarios of climate change and market conditions. Results obtained at a 1 km grid are aggregated to the national level. The model results indicate that changes in policy conditions, cropland use, and flexibility in crop management practices may have stronger effects on total protein crop production than climate change in the next decades. An expansion of current protein crop production leads to an increase in marginal opportunity costs, reduces mineral fertilizer input demand, and mainly replaces maize in the crop rotations
Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers
Get PDFMACSUR's aims•To analyze the effects of climate change for farming conditions in European regions •To identify risks for farmers, to jointly develop mitigation and adaptation options•To analyze consequences of mitigation and adaptation for farming competitiveness, the environment and rural developmentMACSUR'S mission •improve and integratemodels - crop and livestock production, farms, and national & international agri-food markets•demonstrate integration and links - models for selected farming systems and regions •provide hands-on training- young and experienced researchers in integrative modelingProgramme of the workshop•Presentation of current achievements—Regional Pilots on climate adaptation —EU-level assessments •Intensive discussion with all participants—What are your knowledge needs ?—What can MACSUR-2 contribute ?—How to collaborate ?—Next steps of interaction
Pesticide management in Scottish spring barley – insights from sowing dates
No full textBetter management of pesticides is a potentially important strategy for reducing environmental impact while maintaining yields. Pesticide use is influenced by several drivers, including sowing date, which can directly impact disease burden. Analysis of sowing dates for spring barley was the first stage of this project, which aims to provide insight into areas of farm management which can be optimised to reduce environmental impact. Sowing dates were taken from the Adopt a Crop database, which contains data from 1983 onwards for commercial farms across Scotland. Work was carried out at three levels: national, to provide an overall picture of historical patterns; regional, to highlight differences within Scotland; and case study, to determine whether the national trend was visible in a single region. A general trend towards later sowing of spring barley in Scotland is visible – yet, this pattern is less pronounced in certain regions. Future work must therefore consider what factors have lead to this shift, to more fully understand interactions between sowing date and the environment
FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops 2015
Get PDFFACCE MACSUR comprises many different groups whose work contribute to improving the European capacity of modelling agriculture with climate change and providing an assessment of these impacts for stakeholders. Some groups work on methodological issues in a single discipline, others work on cross-disciplinary concepts. The meeting provided an opportunity for the members of the groups to meet for intensive discussions and exchange of ideas, which is not as easily done in phone or video conferences. Various groups also met with each other to agree on work plans and common settings for research. Overall, 105 researchers attended the workshops. For coordinating work with the global program AgMIP, AgMIP's principle investigator John Antle attended the meeting and, meeting in a video call, coordination teams of MACSUR and AgMIP agreed to continue the successful collaboration in the future.Major overarching outcomes of the meetings were agreements on policy and climate scenarios recommended to be used within MACSUR, development of an approach to quantify effects of extreme climatic events on socio-economic indicators, and closer collaboration among several groups at the level of regional case studies
Report on Stakeholder Engagement Methodologies
Get PDFStakeholder engagement in research projects can take a number of forms according to the scope of the project and the purpose of the interaction. L4.2. has focused on comparing different approaches to stakeholder engagement in collaborative projects. This report presents a synthesis of the experiences and lessons learnt through the stakeholder engagement activities of LiveM researchers within MACSUR, within an Italian (Oristano) case study, and within the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project. An overview of these examples, and some of the lessons drawn from them, can also be found in the MACSUR paper on stakeholder engagement methods being developed by researchers from all three MACSUR themes (Koenig et al. under production). The first part of this report describes the stakeholder engagement strategy within the SOLID project. Stakeholder engagement methods are analysed through observations of activities and using semi-structured interviews with researchers and stakeholders. Two aspects of the SOLID approach are described – the stakeholder panel and the Future Dairying workshop. Transcripts of the workshop and the contribution of the stakeholder panel to the SOLID annual meeting in Helsinki are included (Appendices 1 and 2), as a contribution to the analysis of workshop outcomes being undertaken within the SOLID project. As part of a wider suite of stakeholder engagement activities, the SOLID stakeholder panel provided an example of how ongoing oversight of scientific outputs and direction by stakeholders can be effective in identifying weaknesses in approach and communication, and in suggesting relevant and effective directions for research activities. The stakeholder workshop demonstrated a useful structure for the exploration of stakeholder concerns, their view of ideal states and their solutions for reaching them. Low participation levels demonstrated the need to understand the motivations that drive stakeholders to engage in such projects, and highlighted the value of developing long-term relationships between stakeholders and researchers that allow scientific research to become an accepted part of practical problem-solving. The second part of the report describes stakeholder engagement activities carried out in the context of one of the MACSUR regional pilot studies (Oristanese case study in Sardinia, Italy). The Oristanese case study demonstrates the potentialities and constraints of participatory methodologies in relation to the different categories of stakeholder involved. It highlights the importance of creating new spaces for dialogue between farmers, researchers and policy makers in order to promote the generation of “hybrid knowledge” (Nguyen et al. 2013) for the emergence of more sustainable and longer-lasting strategies to adapt to CC. This would require the promotion of open knowledge generation platforms where multiple stakeholders are encouraged to participate and make their views heard. These approaches are designed in order to overcome the misalignment between scientists' suggestions and policy implementation. In the third part of the report, the outcomes of a "learning event" held in Sassari (MACSUR mid-term meeting) with decision makers from different EU countries, are discussed. Finally, some reflections are presented on the importance of involving local stakeholders and decision makers in research projects, of sharing views and knowledge between scientists and stakeholders, and on the pros and cons of different methodologies at the different scales of stakeholder engagement, drawing on all three examples of practice. The research approach analysed includes two important components, which are represented by “transdisciplinarity” (to be included in the macro area of “scientific knowledge”) and “local knowledge”, as fundamental elements to fill the Science and Policy Gap
Are we building a better connected community?
No full textBuilding large, international collaborations is not a trivial matter. Although there is a significant correlation between productivity and collaboration, scientists have been shown to preferentially continue existing collaborations rather than form new links. Motivations for establishing new collaborations are varied, but external incentives for collaboration are only weakly correlated with collaboration frequency. This raises the question of whether funding specifically dedicated to fostering international collaboration can be effective. Scientific collaboration can be seen as a self-organizing system where co-authorship serves as links in a communication network between scientists. Network analysis methods can then be used to discover the operating dynamics of this system. Here, we evaluate the potential of Knowledge Hubs to build community cohesion by comparing the network of links between partners in the pilot Knowledge Hub MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security) before and during the project period. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of the Knowledge Hub for increasing collaboration and connectedness between all project partners, and between partners within the separate project themes. We also wish to evaluate whether the Knowledge Hub has a greater effect on network development in the more disparate livestock modelling community relative to the relatively established community of crop modellers
Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis
Get PDFThe purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change
Strategies for engagement on adaptation and mitigation with national and EU policy makers and with the agro-‐food chain sector (Update)
Get PDFThis report is grounded on the hypotheses, methodologies and approaches for stakeholder mapping designed during the early stages of MACSUR and described in the previous report1. It describes the kind of activities conducted by the WPC6-3-4 MACSUR team and the emerging design of activities for the second phase of MACSUR (2015-2017). The designed process of strategic stakeholder mapping was implemented by some of the teams involved in the task and through hub initiatives. Key actions were the (i) development of suitable intermediary objects to engage with stakeholders, through the regional pilot case studies, (ii) the design and implementation of key events (we report here the case of the Agroscenari event at the case study scale, the national event between the MACSUR Italian partnership with Italian policy makers held in Rome in July 2014, the international stakeholder events at the MACSUR mid term meeting in Sassari (April 2014), and the one held in Bruxelles on 6 May 2015) and (iii) the process of stakeholder and stakeholding mapping at the case study scale. Results indicate that when dealing with high level stakeholders (e.g. institutional or large agro-food enterprises), occasional stakeholder events will only serve as opportunity for showcasing and possibly for a data collection useful for researchers, with almost no impact on the ongoing social learning process sought by the designed activities. At the case study scale, instead, the long term and ongoing activities can generate new spaces for mutual learning and knowledge hybridization, through a variety of mediating objects emerging from the continuous interactions. The lesson learned is that the engagement of high level stakeholders can be effective insofar they are somehow involved in the interactions with stakeholders at the case study scale, as this can provide a key experience leading to a change in understanding about the nature of the issues that can ultimately result into a change in practice. These results will be the basis for the design of new strategies for engaging EU policy makers and large agro-food energy representatives in the second phase of MACSUR