FACCE MACSUR Reports (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security)
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Global Research Alliance on Greenhouse Gases - benchmark and ensemble crop and grassland model estimates
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«
Full text linkClimate change, food security, and agricultural production interact in complex ways. A major challenge for scientists is to understand and assess the biological, economic, and ecological interdependencies in the context of climate change and food Security. More and better knowledge is necessary to aid politicians, stakeholders and farmers in their decisions.The Knowledge Hub FACCE MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with ClimateChange for Food Security) (www.macsur.eu) assembles the excellence of Research in Europe in crop, livestock and economic modelling. MACSUR cooperates with the AgMIP community (www.agmip.org) and particularly welcomes AgMIP contributions.The workshop will bring together researchers with interest in Integrated assessment approaches which are used to analyze agriculture, food security and climate change. The event has four major goals:to critically discuss the state-of-the-art and future perspectives of Integrated assessment approaches to study and assess examples of applied modelling approaches integrating crop, livestock, and economic modelsto foster international collaboration in the research areas of food security, climate change, and agrosystem modellingto plan and identify next steps to achieve TradeM contributions to MACSUR goalsKeynote speakers: John Antle, Oregon State University, and co-leader of the Economics Team of AgMIPJosef Schmidhuber, FAOEric Nævdal, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research at the University of Osl
Evaluating competitiveness of clover-grass as a resilient feed production option in Finland
Full text linkClover-grasses address the following objectives:– Decreased input use (N-fertilization), reduced dependency ofinorganic N => reduced GHG emissions– Possibility for increased protein content of silage, reduceddependency on purchased protein feed supplement (homegrown proteins, resilience)© Natural Resources Institute Finland– Better utilisation of farmland in the context of climate changein the north: Higher T - improved N fixation– Compatible with sustainable agriculture and sustainableintensification: more output with the same inputs / the sameoutput with reduced (non-renewable) inputs• In contrast: Shifting to silage maize increases N fertilisation– Major shift from grasslands to silage maize in e.g. Denmark 1. Small cost reductions in clover-grass cultivation, or clover-grasspremiums, may or may not increase clover cultivation- Their effectiveness is uncertain and subject to prices2. N tax is effective, but is not a suitable policy action in currentfinancial situation of farms (milk crisis 2015-2016)3. However, the results suggest that a 25% higher N price lead to© Natural Resources Institute Finlandsignificantly higher clover grass area and a small reduction ínmilk output – with no cost reductions or extra premiums!4. To increase clover cultivation, price ratios should be adjusted!5. If increasing clover -grass yield, a robust increase in clovergrass areas may realise, with small benefits for farm economyand overall production – How much more clover grass yieldcould be attained at low costs? A topic for further discussionand analysis!
Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Farms and Ecosystems in a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape
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Exploring grass-based beef production under climate change by integration of grass and cattle growth models
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What are the risks of food price changes? A time series analysis
Full text linkIt is a widely held belief (IPCC) that climate change bringsmore risks to the worldI Since the start of MACSUR, TradeM has had risk on theagenda, but few results have so far come out. It has beenclaimed though, that there is no evidence for more risk in theglobal wheat market (Steen and Gjølberg 2014) (TradeMworkshop at Hurdalssjøen)I I have myself had the ambition of creating a dynamicstochastic model of the food system in which risk would be anintegral part, but time has been too shortI I have also pointed to methods from finance to reveal insights,and that is the road to be followed here, guided by Bølviken &Benth (2000) Buyer’s risk larger than seller’s risk — due to asymmetricdistribution of returns. Large price jumps are more likely thanequally sized price falls.I Long term positions much more risky than short term ones —as expectedI Agricultural commodities much less risky than crude oilI Price risk are related to volatility, and their changes over timewill have similar causal explanationsI Risks of producers and consumers of agricultural commoditieswill to some extent be related to the price risk, and also totheir portfolios and the co-variance between return
Economic assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation on livestock farms
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Modelling the impacts of seasonal drought on herbage growth under climate change
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Adaptation to climate change in the European agriculture: A new tool for explicit cost accounting
No full textfarm structure in Austria and level of educationchallenges of more volatile markets / more uncertain yieldsmore uncertainty about revenues and costsspecialisation and liquidity problems – not alleviated by EU direct paymentspolitical measures: late, uncertain, no legal title, wrong incentivestax credits – not relevant in Austria for most farmsprice hedging instruments steep learning curve and intransparent marketsmost frequently used: service of buying co-operatives control of accumulation risksdetails of contract are attractive for farmerse.g. monthly benefits for milk producersbenefits at the time of sale for pig, piglet, grain producerscombination with production risk insurance with discountsgovernment support during introduction period / as a new policy instrumentmarketing and sales: wholesale buyers / dairies / producer organisations offer margin insurance as a service
Heat stress effects in milk yield and milk traits at farm scale
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