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Integrated Ocean Carbon Research: a vision primed for implementation
No full textThe mission of the ‘Integrated Ocean Carbon Research’ (IOC-R) programme is to enhance our understanding of the ocean as a changing sink for human-produced CO2 and its climate change mitigation capacity, as well as the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to increasing CO2 levels. The IOC-R programme aims to provide an actionable foundation for addressing the challenges of ocean carbon research. In doing so, it is contributing to the objectives of the United Nations (UN) Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development by integrating the latest scientific findings and observational data for ocean carbon. Supported by interdisciplinary research, the understanding of the ocean carbon cycle has advanced significantly since the last release of a report from the IOC-R community (IOC of UNESCO, 2021; Sabine et al., 2024). However, major knowledge and observational gaps remain, leading to considerable uncertainties in model projections. These hamper the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including those involving ocean based solutions. The IOC-R programme itself is co-sponsored by five international research and coordination programmes which have a strong involvement and focus on ocean carbon (Global Carbon Project1, SOLAS2, IMBeR3, CLIVAR4 and IOCCP5) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC)6. This IOC-R report is a global community effort with 72 authors and 13 reviewers from 23 countries. The report aims to guide the scientific focus of these programmes, as well as GOOS7, and to highlight new global crosscutting priorities of ocean carbon research that help national and international ocean science funding entities determine future areas of investment. It will accomplish this by identifying knowledge gaps and coordinated research approaches to increase understanding about the ocean carbon cycle in a changing world. The IOC-R community has defined five focus areas for ocean carbon research (Figure ES1), which will be further developed and explained in the report (Section 3): 1. Evolution of the ocean carbon sink under a changing climate, 2. The changing role of biology in the ocean carbon cycle, 3. Carbon exchanges across the land-ocean-ice continuum, 4. The impact of ocean industrial processes on the ocean bio logical carbon cycle, 5. Future changes in the carbon cycle from deliberate ocean-based climate interventions. In order to close the knowledge gaps identified within each focus area, a series of internationally co-ordinated approaches are required. These prioritised approaches (Section 4) are : • Support for sustained ocean carbon observing systems, • Integration of sensor technologies and platforms, • Enhancement and co-ordination of carbon observing and synthesis products, • Next level biological process studies and experiments, and • Improved ocean carbon cycle models
Mental Health and Sentencing: How are judicial decisions made in light of the judgement of R v Vowles? (A partial replication of Baldwin et al, 2025)
Full text linkIn England and Wales, s.45A of the Mental Health Act 1983 allows a judge to pass a sentence including both an immediate direction to hospital as well as a punitive custodial element. R v Vowles provides four specific considerations for judges to attend to when considering such sentences (referred to as the ‘Vowles statements’). In a previous study (Baldwin et al, 2025), we examined how a proxy judicial sample made decisions about sentencing in line with this case-law. Whilst s.45A was, in contrast to real world outcomes, very popular, not all of the Vowles statements were predictive of the final sentence. Moreover, differences in the diagnostic description presented to judges resulted in little difference to sentencing outcomes. However, this study suffered with a number of methodological limitations which the present study aimed to address. Our findings largely mirrored those of our original study; s45A remained a popular option with judges, and of the four Vowles statements, the studies together clearly indicate that a belief that the defendant requires punishment is by far the most important factor. Combining the samples of the two studies indicated a small effect of diagnosis on sentencing behaviour, and there was significant evidence of variability between judges in their appraisals of the Vowles statements. This study illuminates the need for better understanding of judicial decision-making processes concerning defendants with mental health concerns
Recent cloud controlling factor analyses indicate higher climate sensitivity
No full textCloud feedback is a dominant source of uncertainty in climate model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Cloud controlling factor analysis can observationally constrain cloud feedback. For the first time, we use separate rather than unified frameworks to assess high- and low-cloud feedbacks and constrain the net cloud feedback and subsequently, the ECS. We find a robustly positive cloud feedback (i.e., a negative feedback is < 0.5% probable), indicating that clouds amplify global warming. We assess the individual and combined impacts of our cloud feedback constraints on ECS using three approaches. Two indicate an upward ECS shift with reduced uncertainty, preserving ECS–feedback correlations but using cloud feedback as a single line of evidence. The third, a Bayesian framework combining multiple lines of evidence, also suggests a higher ECS but with a smaller increase and broader confidence range
Weight management needs in under-resourced communities elicited using storyboarding and a realist lens: A qualitative study
No full textBackground: Overweight and obesity are causing growing public health, economic and clinical burden, particularly within under-resourced communities. There is an urgent need to develop an in-depth understanding of experiences of weight management, and preferences for support within under-resourced communities, with a view to developing more effective weight management interventions. Methods: Focus groups were run in under-resourced communities using storyboarding; a method to facilitate inclusive communication (n=37). Thematic analysis was applied to textual and visual data, and a realist ‘lens’ applied to provide in-depth insight into weight management experiences and needs. We believe this is the first study to use this combined methodology to explore weight management experiences and needs. Results: Combining storyboarding with a realist lens, generated four themes. Living circumstances indicated that mental health, individual needs, and cost of weight management services were key contextual factors. Mechanisms of weight management identified emotional eating and portion control to be central to individual weight management. Yo-yo dieting centred on participants’ experiences of weight regain after attempting weight loss. Weight management intervention needs indicated psychological support was perceived as severely lacking, and the only route to attain sustained weight management. Offering both in-person and online support for weight management was considered important to reach more people. Conclusion: Moving weight management support from short- to long-term and incorporating more robust psychological support would better serve the needs of people living in under-resourced communities who are overweight or obese. Ideally interventions should be multicomponent and tailored to individual needs and circumstances
Beyond Detection: An Epistemic Limit of Purely Computational Misinformation Defense
No full textThe dominant paradigm for countering misinformation prioritizes computational detection, classification, and automated fact-checking. This paper argues that such approaches rest on an unexamined epistemic assumption that human critical capacity remains stable and sufficient to interpret, verify, and govern algorithmic outputs. We identify a structural blind spot in this paradigm, particularly salient in educational settings, where increasing reliance on generative artificial intelligence risks eroding the very epistemic capacities required for effective human–AI collaboration. To make this claim precise, we develop an epistemic modal logic framework that demonstrates the insufficiency of purely computational defenses to guarantee critical understanding in human agents. We conclude that technical defenses are necessarily contingent on prior educational investment in human epistemic virtues, reframing misinformation defense as a problem of socio-cognitive-technical resilience rather than algorithmic optimization alone
Setting Mental Health Research Priorities in Norfolk and Suffolk: A Stakeholder Consultation
No full textIntroduction: Mental health problems disproportionately affect marginalised communities rural, coastal, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. This is especially true for Norfolk and Suffolk, UK, where anxiety and depression are above national averages, suicide is the leading cause of death among those with mental ill-health, and access to care is poor. These communities are also underserved by research, leaving significant needs unmet. Aims: This project aimed to establish mental health research priorities informed by the views of key stakeholders in Norfolk and Suffolk, including people with lived experience of mental ill-health, members of the public, clinicians, charities, and policymakers. Methods and analysis: We conducted a mixed-methods research-priority-setting exercise involving an online survey (n=156, of whom 64.7% had lived experience) and two in-person prioritisation workshops with people with lived experience (n=10) and health and social care professionals (n=15). Following Delphi principles and guided by the James Lind Alliance approach, the survey asked participants to rate research priority statements across eight mental-health domains using a 3-point Likert scale (0 = low, 1 = moderate, 2 = high). Statements rated as high priority by ≥50% of the respondents were shortlisted for the workshops. During the two-day workshops, participants discussed the shortlisted statements in small groups before voting individually on those they considered most important. Scores were calculated separately for each workshop, then combined to produce a final ranked list of the Top 10 research priorities. Ethics: The University of East Anglia’s Faculty of Medicine and Health Research Ethics Committee granted ethical approval (reference: ETH2324-2542). Results: Of the 70 original priority statements, 40 met the threshold for inclusion in the prioritisation workshops. Participants in the two prioritisation workshops identified and agreed on the final Top 10 priorities, spanning youth mental health, physical–mental health integration, access to care, impacts of rural and coastal living, social and health inequalities, health promotion and prevention, and big-data solutions. Conclusions: Stakeholders in this study identified local mental health needs and highlighted areas where research is urgently required. These priorities will inform future studies, support policymaking, and guide resource allocation to improve mental healthcare and reduce inequalities in rural and coastal communities
The policy impact of climate change advisory bodies: Government responses to the UK Climate Change Committee’s recommendations, 2009–2020
No full textClimate advisory bodies have been established in over 40 countries. However, the existing literature focuses on their formation and remits, not their unfolding policy impact. This article addresses this important gap by reporting the findings of a novel analysis of the UK Government’s responses to the UK Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) mitigation and adaptation recommendations published in its annual progress reports, taking written acceptance as a proxy for policy impact. The fact that the CCC is the oldest such body in the world makes it an obvious case to develop and test empirically a new method for undertaking assessments of policy impact. A systematic content analysis of government responses to 592 of the CCC’s 700 recommendations (2009–2020) finds that 23% were accepted, of which only 2% were accepted in full. However, it also reveals that the characteristics of individual recommendations have a notable association with the type of government response (i.e. accepted, rejected, or non-committal). For mitigation recommendations, those with a cross-sectoral focus were over four-times more likely to be accepted than those addressing a specific sector. For those addressing adaptation, the only predictor of acceptance was the degree of repetition; repeated recommendations were nearly five-times more likely to be accepted than fresh ones. For the first time, these findings demonstrate the extent of the association between the form and content of recommendations and how they are subsequently received by government. Moreover, they suggest that climate advisory bodies may be able to achieve greater impact by repeating recommendations over time, and ensuring they contain a clear addressee and a specific action point. Further research should, however, also explore other factors that influence government responses as well as assess how far accepted recommendations are implemented
Ethnicity and the epidemiology of skin cancer incidence: A retrospective population-based study in England, 2013-20
Full text linkIntroduction: Skin cancers primarily affect people of White ethnicity and lighter skin tones, but people of other ethnicities may face diagnostic delays and experience higher mortality, reflecting existing inequities in healthcare. This is the first study showing incidence data from the National Disease Registration Service (NDRS) cancer registry in England for skin cancers stratified by the seven broad ethnic groups. Methods: We used data from NDRS from 2013-20 to analyse melanoma, acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM), basal cell carcinoma (BCC), cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL), and Kaposi sarcoma (KS). Tumour records were linked to datasets including census population data, Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data, Index of Multiple Deprivation and Hospital Episode Statistics. Ethnicity data were grouped into seven standardised broad ONS categories: White, Asian, Chinese, Black, Mixed, Other and Unknown. European age-standardized rates (EASR) were calculated using the 2013 European Standard Population and reported per 100,000 person years (PY). Results: Ethnic diversity in England increased between the 2011 and 2021 censuses. 'Unknown' ethnicity cases with registry data ranged from 19.2% for BCC to 5.0% for ALM. EASR of melanoma was 33 times higher in White (27.29 CI [27.12- 27.46]) than in Asian (0.82 CI [0.67- 0.99]) and 16 times higher in White than in the Black ethnic group (1.67 CI [1.37- 2.01)]. Similarly, cSCC was 14 more common in White compared (61.75 CI [61.49- 62.0]) with Asian (4.55 CI [4.15- 4.97]) and 13 times more common with the Black ethnic group (4.73 CI [4.17- 5.34], respectively. BCC was 26 times more common in White (153.69 CI [153.28-154.09] than in Asian (5.59 CI [5.16- 6.04]) and 27 times more common in White than in Black ethnic groups (5.98 CI [5.35- 6.65], respectively. However, EASR for ALM was highest in the Black ethnic groups. ALMs were less likely to be referred along the urgent suspected cancer pathways and more likely to present at a later stage than for melanoma overall. EASR for KS was significantly higher in Other and Black ethnic groups. Conclusion: A lack of high-quality published ethnicity data hampers our understanding of health disparities. These findings emphasize the need for better ethnicity data collection and regular audits to better understand and address needs of underserved populations
Some record it hot: Clumped isotope temperatures from Middle Jurassic molluscan aragonite
Full text linkClumped isotope (Δ47 ) data from the shell aragonite of Praemytilus strathairdensis, a non-marine Middle Jurassic mytilid from the Inner Hebrides of Scotland, presents a rare geological context for better understanding the effects of diagenesis on Δ47 in skeletal aragonite. Nineteen P. strathairdensis shells gave Δ47 temperatures between 23 ± 5°C and 48 ± 9°C despite having an identical burial/thermal history. During the early Palaeocene these rocks were briefly buried to temperatures warm enough (∼50 to 80°C for <1 my) to sufficiently overcome the activation energy for bond breakage and diffusion in fossil molluscan aragonite. This caused mostly incomplete resetting of some Δ47 derived temperatures to warmer values. As individual shells with the same thermal history record different Δ47 an extrinsic defect regime associated with impurities is implied, possibly varying amounts of water, in the aragonite lattice. Seven P. strathairdensis Δ47 derived temperatures, between 23°C and 30°C, overlap those of within-sequence, early diagenetic calcitic concretion bodies that are not reset. While it is not certain these mollusc anaragonite Δ47 temperatures are wholly unaltered, they may represent a best estimate of Jurassic lagoon water temperatures