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Predicted Habitat Suitability for Biodiversity to Support Landscape Planning Processes
No full textThe Montana Natural Heritage Program has been modeling predicted habitat suitability for a variety of individual species for over 15 years. We now have models in place for nearly 1,100 species, including all vertebrates, all plant Species of Concern, and all non-native species that are invasive. Model write ups that describe the modeling process, evaluate model output, and provide links to download layer package files of model output for individual species are posted on our Predicted Suitable Habitat Models page at https://mtnhp.org/models/ Recently we have combined individual models for biodiversity groups to create 90 x 90 meter pixel maps of cumulative habitat suitability for native species and cumulative invasion risk for non-native species. Maps can be used by resource managers in landscape-scale planning processes to prioritize conservation efforts for native species and survey and control efforts for non-native species. A new Habitat Suitability for Biodiversity task in our Map Viewer web application https://mtnhp.org/mapviewer/ allows anyone to access these maps and create summaries of species predicted to occur in various jurisdictions of interest as well as the cumulative biodiversity various land ownership categories are predicted to support within the jurisdiction. Models for individual species can be displayed as map overlays and land ownership breakdowns by predicted suitability class are provided for individual species predicted to occur in each jurisdiction of interest. Range-wide models for individual species, statewide cumulative predicted habitat suitability for biodiversity layers, and layers and maps with output rescaled to local areas of interest can be requested at https://nris.mt.gov/reqapp/userMain.as
Using Animal Movement Data to Uncover Hidden Links Between Long-Billed Curlews and Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs
No full textBlack-tailed prairie-dogs (PDs) are keystone species and ecosystem engineers in grassland systems of western North America. However, they have been eradicated from greater than 90% of their range through grassland conversion, persecution by humans, and introduced sylvatic plague. Because of how quickly and thoroughly prairie-dogs were lost from our grassland ecosystems, their role as a keystone species remains poorly understood. Based on field observations of large aggregations of breeding long-billed curlews (LBCU) in the vicinity of PD colonies, we hypothesized that curlews were using prairie-dog colonies for breeding and foraging disproportionately compared with their availability on the landscape. To test this, we tagged 32 LBCU over 4 years with GPS satellite tags and modeled resource selection on the breeding grounds in a study area containing several large PD colonies. Using continuous-time resource selection functions we found curlews do, in fact, select for active PD colonies. Confirmation of this pattern sets up several hypotheses for the mechanism underpinning this association, which out research group is currently testing. Finally, this PD-LBCU link is an example of a potentially important keystone function of PDs in grassland systems, one that we stand to lose in the absence of large-scale PD conservation efforts
Using Radio Collar Activity Data to Detect Date of Parturition in Grizzly Bears
No full textDocumenting natality among radio-marked adult female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is an important component of many population monitoring programs. Because female grizzly bears give birth in their den during hibernation, direct observation of neonate litters is not possible until after den emergence. Litter detection can also be compromised by poor visibility in some habitats, potentially leading to biased natality estimates. Using radio-collar activity data from females within three Rocky Mountain and one Alaska population, we developed a method to detect parturition events by the presence of a mid-winter spike in movement likely associated with the prolonged post-parturition licking by mothers. We developed criteria from 22 known mothers and tested them against data from another 291 females. Based on results from 40 females later observed with cubs, the overall true positive rate was 93%. The true negative rate was 87%, based on 55 females later observed with older offspring. A birth event was predicted for 45% of females that were never observed (n=38), 22% of females later observed without any offspring (n= 108), and 8% of females considered too young to reproduce (n=12). All predicted births in the southernmost Greater Yellowstone occurred in January, whereas all births in the northernmost Gates of the Artic population occurred in February. Births in the intermediate populations, Selkirk Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem and Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, occurred within both months. Our anomaly detection method was highly successful in identifying parturition events and may provide an additional tool for population monitoring
The Role of Climate in Declines of a Once Common Pollinator and Methods and Tools for Projecting Future Change
No full textThe acute decline of global biodiversity has become ubiquitous across ecosystems and taxa. The loss of insect pollinators is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic value these organisms provide. One species that has experienced recent declines is the western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis), once common throughout western North America and is now under consideration for ESA listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). We used a full lifecycle framework and a Bayesian hierarchal occupancy model leveraging 14,457 surveys conducted over 23 years (1998-2020) to evaluate the effects of 17 climate related variables. We found strong support for a negative relationship between occupancy and two climate components: temperature during the warmest quarter and drought; and a predicted mean decline of 57% across the species range. In this talk we will also cover methods, tools, and best practices for developing scenarios for future projections of wildlife populations using climate and land cover change forecasts. We used the results of the contemporary trend model to project future B. occidentalis occupancy to the mid-century (2050-2059), including changes in climate, land cover, and overall trend momentum across three scenarios that bound the plausible range of future conditions. By the 2050’s, our most optimistic scenario projects occupancy declines in almost half of ecoregions; more severe scenarios project declines in all ecoregions ranging from 51% to 97%
A Story of Survival - Births, Deaths, and Predation in White-Tailed Deer in North Idaho
No full textIn North Idaho, ungulate and predator populations are fluctuating, and determining the population growth of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) will allow us to assess their role in the complex predator-prey systems, where they have never been studied. We wanted to identify how white-tailed deer fawn and adult survival influence population growth rates, and how predation on different age groups contributes to changes in population growth rates. We used vital rates estimated from 360 female deer collared between 2019 and 2021 to build a stage-based matrix model. We then tested eight management scenarios of hypothetical reductions in cause-specific mortality proportional to each stage to determine their impacts on population growth. We estimated a current declining population growth rate. The scenarios that produced a population growth rate above 1, were a 50% reduction in mountain lion predation, and two scenarios of combined reductions in mortality due to mountain lions and bears, as well as a reduction in antler-less harvest. Our findings demonstrated that this population can withstand low fawn survival rates, and is more sensitive to changes in adult survival rates. Additionally, mountain lion predation impacts all stages and would require drastic changes to alter the trajectory of this population. We produced the first estimates of population parameters and vital rates in North Idaho of white-tailed deer, highlighting low recruitment rates and high mortality due to mountain lions. The management scenarios illustrate the potential effects, or ineffectiveness, of predator removal to improve white-tailed deer population outlook
Conservation Served with a Twist (Poster)
No full textMontanan’s value wildlife both as useful resources and as part of their community’s extended social network. They also believe wildlife management should be controlled locally, and economies should not suffer from environmental protections (Manfredo 2018). These values knit with Kootenai valley resident’s views regarding Cabinet-Yaak grizzly bear recovery (Canepa 2008) and define common threads of conflict between residents and recovery managers. Home attractants are a main recurring conflict. During Fall in areas like the Kootenai valley, the probability of a male bear being located on a property with fruit trees is > 80% (Merkle 2013), and the removal of backyard fruit is the single most effective conflict mitigation tool available to residents (Annis, pers. comm. 2022, Crevier 2021). Pink Bench Distilling will create a market solution that unites local values with the conservation needs of grizzly bears by creating a fruit gleaning program to incentivize and facilitate fruit harvest, crafting fruit brandies for commercial distribution and giving back to the community and conservation through multiple profit-sharing mechanisms. In addition to bears, the Cabinet-Yaak also hosts over 35 plants that can be used in gin and liqueur production, many of which are already harvested commercially without conservation coordination. In further pursuit of uniting local values with conservation needs, we have created a botanical harvest program with the Forest Service that defines parameters for sustainable harvest of our wild-sourced ingredients; the first of its kind in Montana. We seek peer feedback on further best practices for our fruit gleaning and wild harvest programs
Identifying Climate Change Refugia for Riparian Zones in Montana
No full textIdentifying climate change refugia, defined as relatively buffered areas that are likely to maintain ecological function under plausible future climates, can serve as an important climate adaptation planning tool. Riparian areas are especially important for climate adaptation because they provide habitat for many species, cool neighboring waters, and are often buffered against change relative to surrounding uplands. We used climatic and landscape attributes to identify and map potential riparian climate refugia (100 m) across Montana. We included two landscape factors hypothesized to confer resiliency (riparian connectedness, landscape diversity) and two factors of projected climate change likely to impact riparian areas (increases in warm days, landscape runoff). For the climate factors, we considered a future atmospheric carbon emission scenario of RCP 8.5 and two plausible climate change scenarios, 1) moderately hot and wet [CNRM-CM5] and 2) hot and dry [IPSL-CM5A-MR]. We compared historical climate (1971-2000) to two future time periods, mid-Century (2040-2069) and end of Century (2070-2099). Although we found current riparian connectedness is greater in western Montana, riparian areas in eastern Montana are projected to be better protected against climate change, likely due to greater landscape diversity near riparian areas, projected increases in moisture, and a smaller relative increase in warm days. Predicted refugia for some areas, such as portions of southeast Montana, depended greatly upon the climate scenario. Agencies and stakeholders can use the maps we produced to prioritize conservation and restoration of targeted refugia areas and for broader climate adaptation planning
Modeling Prey & Predator - Using Army Cutworm Moth Occurrence to Inform Grizzly Bear Foraging Suitability at Talus Slopes in Glacier National Park
No full textArmy cutworm moths (ACM) migrate hundreds of kilometers from low elevation agriculturally dominated landscapes to aggregate in talus slopes of high elevation massifs along the Continental Divide from New Mexico into Canada. In certain mountain ranges of Montana, the moths’ summer occurrence overlaps the domain of recovering grizzly bear populations. In Glacier National Park, the moths’ nourishing ~70% fat and 25% protein summer body composition compels grizzly bears to ascend mountains to feast on moths by the thousands each day. Due to the difficulty in accessing and surveying this terrain, the habitat characteristics as well as the mountain locations where grizzly bears forage for ACMs in Glacier, is poorly understood. We implemented systematic ground and aerial surveys from 2019-2021 to 1) develop models describing the talus slope features for ACM occurrence in Glacier, and then 2) used a park-wide projection of the resultant ACM model as an input to better understand the relative suitability of grizzly bear foraging for ACMs across the park, using Maxent modelling. We show the habitat features predicting ACM occurrence drive grizzly bear foraging patterns. Further, while our models together indicate ACMs scantly occur at high elevations, our observations show a remarkable percentage of the park’s grizzly bear population is attracted to these rugged locations across summer moths. Given the park’s increasing annual visitation rates and their expanding demand for off-trail recreation, our findings will aid park land managers’ ability to preserve these sensitive habitats for grizzly bears while maintaining appropriate human use
Helena Urban Deer Management, 2008-2023
No full textDue to increasing human-deer conflicts, there are a growing number of municipalities in Montana that are managing urban deer, and the methods include public hunting as well as trapping and lethal removal. This presentation will provide an overview of the City of Helena’s trap and removal program from 2008 to 2023. Due to the number of nuisance complaints, vehicle collisions, and negative encounters, the City established a task force, developed a management plan, and selected a social-tolerance threshold of <25 deer/mi2. The City covered costs for staffing, surveys, and trapping/removal. A local food bank paid for meat processing. Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks provided technical expertise and collected samples for CWD testing. Trapping success varied with winter conditions and over time. Trapping success was greater in years with more snow and winter weather, and deer appeared to become trap smart over time. CWD sampling began in winter 2021-2022, and to date, all samples were negative. A distance sampling survey was completed in years 2009-2018 and 2021-2022. At the beginning of the program, density was estimated at 47 deer/ mi2 (CL: 35-64). Since then, estimates varied from a low of 14 deer/ mi2 (CL: 12-20) in 2013, to a high of 64 deer/ mi2 (46-88) in 2022. The program was suspended from 2019-2020, and density estimates increased. Overall, the City’s management of urban deer was successful. Deer density decreased to below the social-tolerance threshold from 2013-2018, human-deer conflicts and deer-related 911 calls decreased, and 30,000-35,000 pounds of venison were donated
Montana Citizen Botany Pilot Study (Poster)
No full textSuccessful Citizen Science Programs across the nation have made important contributions to conservation. Studies on Citizen Science efforts agree that success is only achieved by programs that are well adapted to specific objectives and stakeholders. In Montana, meaningful conservation of rare plant species is often a challenge due to insufficient or outdated knowledge of simple plant population parameters. Aligned in mission, the Montana Natural Heritage Program and Montana Native Plant Society developed the concept of a Citizen Botany Program aimed at training volunteers to collect survey data from rare plant sites where population status has not been updated in more than 20 years. In 2022 a two-year pilot study was funded to test the framework and function of this concept in action. The Citizen Botany Pilot Study is an operating prototype demonstrating benefits for rare plant conservation and those who contribute. We will present the purpose, methods, and accomplishments of Year 1, share what we have in store during Year 2, and show you how to become a Citizen Botanist