Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence: AAAI Publications
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DroughtSet: Understanding Drought Through Spatial-Temporal Learning
No full textDrought is one of the most destructive and expensive natural disasters, severely impacting natural resources and risks by depleting water resources and diminishing agricultural yields. Under climate change, accurately predicting drought is critical for mitigating drought-induced risks. However, the intricate interplay among the physical and biological drivers that regulate droughts limits the predictability and understanding of drought, particularly at a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale. While deep learning has demonstrated the potential to address climate forecasting challenges, its application to drought prediction has received relatively less attention. In this work, we propose a new dataset, DroughtSet, which integrates relevant predictive features and three drought indices from multiple remote sensing and reanalysis datasets across the contiguous United States (CONUS). DroughtSet specifically provides the machine learning community with a new real-world dataset to benchmark drought prediction models and more generally, time-series forecasting methods. Furthermore, we propose a spatial-temporal model SPDrought to predict and interpret S2S droughts. Our model learns from the spatial and temporal information of physical and biological features to predict three types of droughts simultaneously. Multiple strategies are employed to quantify the importance of physical and biological features for drought prediction. Our results provide insights for researchers to better understand the predictability and sensitivity of drought to biological and physical conditions. We aim to contribute to the climate field by proposing a new tool to predict and understand the occurrence of droughts and provide the AI community with a new benchmark to study deep learning applications in climate science
Hybrid Phenology Modeling for Predicting Temperature Effects on Tree Dormancy
No full textBiophysical models offer valuable insights into climate-phenology relationships in both natural and agricultural settings. However, there are substantial structural discrepancies across models which require site-specific recalibration, often yielding inconsistent predictions under similar climate scenarios. Machine learning methods offer data-driven solutions, but often lack interpretability and alignment with existing knowledge. We present a phenology model describing dormancy in fruit trees, integrating conventional biophysical models with a neural network to address their structural disparities. We evaluate our hybrid model in an extensive case study predicting cherry tree phenology in Japan, South Korea and Switzerland. Our approach consistently outperforms both traditional biophysical and machine learning models in predicting blooming dates across years. Additionally, the neural network's adaptability facilitates parameter learning for specific tree varieties, enabling robust generalization to new sites without site-specific recalibration. This hybrid model leverages both biophysical constraints and data-driven flexibility, offering a promising avenue for accurate and interpretable phenology modeling
Physics-Guided Foundation Model for Scientific Discovery: An Application to Aquatic Science
No full textPhysics-guided machine learning (PGML) has become a prevalent approach in studying scientific systems due to its ability to integrate scientific theories for enhancing machine learning (ML) models. However, most PGML approaches are tailored to isolated and relatively simple tasks, which limits their applicability to complex systems involving multiple interacting processes and numerous influencing features. In this paper, we propose a Physics-Guided Foundation Model (PGFM) that combines pre-trained ML models and physics-based models and leverages their complementary strengths to improve the modeling of multiple coupled processes. To effectively conduct pre-training, we construct a simulated environmental system that encompasses a wide range of influencing features and various simulated variables generated by physics-based models. The model is pre-trained in this system to adaptively select important feature interactions guided by multi-task objectives. We then fine-tune the model for each specific task using true observations, while maintaining consistency with established physical theories, such as the principles of mass and energy conservation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology in modeling water temperature and dissolved oxygen dynamics in real-world lakes. The proposed PGFM is also broadly applicable to a range of scientific fields where physics-based models are being used
Things Machine Learning Models Know That They Don’t Know
No full textThis paper surveys Machine Learning approaches to build predictive models that know what they don't know. The consequential action of this knowledge can consist of abstaining from providing an output (rejection), deferring to another model (dynamic model selection), deferring to a human expert (learning to defer), or informing the user (uncertainty estimation). We formally state the problems each approach solves and point to key references. We discuss open issues that deserve investigation from the scientific community
Learning Structured World Models From and For Physical Interactions
No full textHumans have a strong intuitive understanding of the physical world. Through observations and interactions with the environment, we build mental models that predict how the world would change if we applied a specific action (i.e., intuitive physics). My research draws on these human insights to develop model-based RL agents that learn from their interactions and build predictive models that generalize widely across a range of objects made with different materials. The core idea behind my research is to introduce novel representations and integrate structural priors into learning systems to model dynamics at different levels of abstraction. I will discuss how such structures can make model-based planning algorithms more effective, helping robots accomplish complex manipulation tasks (e.g., manipulating an object pile, shaping deformable foam into a target configuration, and making a dumpling from dough using various tools)
Scalable and Efficient Probabilistic Inference for Bayesian Deep Learning and Generative Modeling
No full textProbabilistic inference is a fundamental challenge in machine learning, spanning tasks from approximate Bayesian inference to generative AI. In this talk, I will present theoretically-guaranteed scalable and efficient probabilistic inference with applications in Bayesian deep learning and generative modeling. First, I will introduce a new compute paradigm for probabilistic inference that leverages modern accelerators, specifically low-precision and sparsity, to significantly speed up inference while preserving accuracy. Next, I will present a new framework for efficient inference in discrete domains, utilizing gradient information—a largely overlooked feature of discrete distributions—to enable more informed and directional exploration. Finally, I will showcase experimental results demonstrating the effectiveness of these methods across various ML tasks, including Bayesian neural networks, energy-based models, and large language models
Automated Assessment of Student Self-Explanation in Code Comprehension Using Pre-Trained Language Models
No full textAssessing students' responses, especially natural language responses, is a major challenge in education. In general, in education contexts, automatically evaluating what learners do or say is important as it enables personalized instruction, e.g., based on what the learner knows tailored tasks and feedback are given to the learner. Recently, deep learning techniques led to state-of-the-art methods in NLP such as transformer-based methods which resulted in significant performance improvements for many NLP tasks such as text classification and question answering. However, there is not much work exploring such methods for assessing students' free answers, particularly in the context of code comprehension, which brings additional challenges as the student explanations include code references as well. This paper explores the potential of applying automated assessments methods using transformers to code comprehension. We fine-tuned pre-trained transformer models, including BERT, RoBERTa, CodeBERT, and SciBERT, to see how well they can automatically judge students' responses to code comprehension tasks. Our results demonstrate that these models can significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of automated assessments, offering insights into how the latest NLP techniques can be leveraged in computer science education to support personalized learning experiences
Smart Motor: A Low-Cost Hardware and Software Toolkit for Introducing Supervised Machine Learning to Elementary School Students
No full textWith the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in society, our children have routine interactions with these technologies. It has become increasingly important for them to understand how these technologies are trained, what their limitations are and how they work. To introduce children to AI and Machine Learning (ML) concepts, recent efforts introduce tools that integrate ML concepts with physical computing and robotics. However, some of these tools cannot be easily integrated into building projects and the high price of robotics kits can be a limiting factor to many schools. We address these limitations by offering a low-cost hardware and software toolkit that we call the Smart Motor to introduce supervised machine learning to elementary school students. Our Smart Motor uses the nearest neighbor algorithm and utilizes visualizations to highlight the underlying decision-making of the model. We conducted a one week long study using Smart Motors with 9- to 12- year old students and measured their learning through observation, questioning and examining what they built. We found that students were able to integrate the Smart Motors into their building projects but some students struggled with understanding how the underlying model functioned. In this paper we discuss these findings and insights for future directions for the Smart Motor
Privacy, Utility and Fairness: Navigating Trade-offs in Differentially Private Machine Learning
No full textDeveloping trustworthy AI requires advancing methods that meet key requirements such as privacy or fairness while maintaining strong utility, as well as understanding the intricate interdependencies between these dimensions, which often manifest as trade-offs. My PhD research focuses on differential privacy, which is widely regarded as the state-of-the-art for protecting privacy in data analysis and machine learning. I investigate the relationships between differential privacy, utility and fairness, with the goal of advancing the adoption of differentially private machine learning in real-world settings
Automating Thought of Search: A Journey Towards Soundness and Completeness (Student Abstract)
No full textLarge language models (LLMs) now turn their attention to search. Recently, Thought of Search (ToS) proposed defining the search space with code, having an LLM produce that code. ToS requires a human in the loop, collaboratively producing a sound successor function and goal test, achieving impressive 100% accuracy on all the tested datasets. In this work, we automate ToS (AutoToS), completely taking the human out of the loop of solving planning problems. AutoToS guides the language model step by step towards the generation of sound and complete search components, through feedback from both generic and domain specific unit tests. We achieve 100% accuracy, with minimal feedback iterations, using LLMs of various sizes on all evaluated domains