Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi
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Exchangeability, prediction and predictive modeling in Bayesian statistics
Get PDFThere is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive ap-
proach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and
focuses on ‘predictive modeling’, which by directly reasoning on prediction,
bypasses inferential models or may characterize them. We detail predictive
characterizations in exchangeable and partially exchangeable settings, for
a large variety of data structures, and hint at new directions. The underly-
ing concept is that Bayesian predictive rules are probabilistic learning rules,
formalizing through conditional probability how we learn on future events
given the available information. This concept has implications in any statis-
tical problem and in inference, from classic contexts to less explored chal-
lenges, such as providing Bayesian uncertainty quantification to predictive
algorithms in data science, as we show in the last part of the paper. The pa-
per gives a historical overview, but also includes a few new results, presents
some recent developments and poses some open questions
Bending the Iron Law: the distribution of power within political parties
No full textHow do political parties share power internally? We study the internal organization of political parties as the solution of a moral hazard problem between a party conference and its factions. Factions' mobilization efforts benefit the party electorally, but can only be imperfectly monitored. In contrast with the logic of Michel's Iron Law, we provide a functionalist rationale for intraparty power sharing: We show that internal power sharing can enhance a party's electoral performance. This effect is stronger in settings that award more resources to election winners: Low interparty power sharing produces high intraparty power sharing. We also show that intraparty power sharing should be more frequent within smaller parties, when monitoring of factional effort is more precise (e.g., preferential voting systems), and when factions' ideological disagreements span multiple dimensions
Customer data access and fintech entry: early evidence from open banking
Get PDFOpen banking (OB) empowers bank customers to share transaction data with fintechs and other banks. 49 countries have adopted OB policies. Consumer trust in fintechs predicts OB policy adoption and adoption spurs investment in fintechs. UK microdata shows that OB enables: i) consumers to access both financial advice and credit; ii) SMEs to establish new fintech lending relationships. In a calibrated model, OB universally improves welfare through entry and product improvements when used for advice. When used for credit, OB promotes entry and competition by reducing adverse selection, but higher prices for costlier or privacy-conscious consumers partially offset these benefits
The London money market and non-British bank lending during the first globalisation: evidence from Brazil
No full textThis study examines the relationship between the London money market (LMM) and the credit provision of non-British overseas banks in peripheral economies during the first wave of globalisation. Using monthly data between 1889 and 1913, we find a positive relationship between the amount of credit authorised by the German Brasilianische Bank für Deutschland in Brazil and the spread between the London market and floating rate. Our results suggest that increased demand for foreign bills and/or decreased borrowing costs in the LMM leads to an increase in credit supply. We use the impact of annual tax payments on the spread between the market and floating rate as an instrumental variable (IV) to show that this relationship is causal. Although there is a significant amount of literature on London’s historic role as a global financial centre and a growing number of studies on foreign banking history, little quantitative evidence is available about the connection between the two. This study bridges this gap
Behavioral state and stimulus strength regulate the role of somatostatin interneurons in stabilizing network activity
No full textInhibition stabilization enables cortical circuits to encode sensory signals across diverse contexts. Somatostatin-expressing (SST) interneurons are well suited for this role through their strong recurrent connectivity with excitatory pyramidal cells. We tested the necessity of SST cells for inhibition stabilization in mouse primary visual cortex by selectively blocking excitatory glutamatergic receptors on SST cells. Antagonizing this key input for the recruitment of SST cells drives a paradoxical facilitation of their activity—the hallmark of inhibition stabilization—with increasing stimulus contrast, and even more so with high arousal. In a computational model of the visual cortex circuit, increasing sensory input and arousal both move the network toward a regime where other classes of interneurons are no longer sufficient for maintaining network stability. Thus, we reveal that the role of SST cells in cortical processing gradually switches as a function of both input strength and behavioral state
Art. 238 - Inadempimento dell'obbligo di prestare cauzione
No full textQualora il condannato non depositi la cauzione nel termine stabilito dal magistrato di sorveglianza con il provvedimento di cui all’art. 679 c.p.p., il giudice sostituisce la cauzione di buona condotta con la libertà vigilata
Lifting women up: gender quotas and the advancement of women on corporate boards
No full textResearch Question/Issue:
The introduction of gender quotas on corporate boards can disrupt the status quo, resulting in externalities that affect women's advancement within the company. This study investigates whether boardroom quotas contribute to promoting women further up the corporate ladder and facilitate access to a broader spectrum of positions.
Research Findings/Insights:
Using legislative changes in Germany as a natural experiment, we find that quotas increase female representation on affected boards. However, quotas may also have adverse effects on women's executive careers; they fall short of eliminating the glass ceiling and fail to level the playing field for women, both inside and outside the firm.
Theoretical/Academic Implications:
The incentives provided by the quota to hire female candidates for a mandated board may hinder their prospects for advancement to executive roles. Drawing from institutional theory, we interpret this as evidence of decoupling—firms comply with the law but do not necessarily change their stance on gender diversity at the top. Additionally, when women accessing the board have backgrounds more closely aligned with executive positions (proxied by their affiliation with the capital side of the board), the negative effect on the non-affected executive board is larger. This suggests a substitution effect, whereby women enter nonexecutive positions instead of pursuing executive careers.
Practitioner/Policy Implications:
Policy design needs to consider the desired outcomes and unintended effects, carefully weighing the trade-offs among them. Relying solely on quotas is insufficient to achieve gender equality in corporations
Artificial intelligence, counter-terrorism and the rule of law : at the heart of national security
No full textSpeech without a Speaker: Constitutional Coverage for Generative AI Output?
No full textGenerative AI systems' output as speech - Constitutional coverage for AI speech in the absence of a (human) speaker - Right of individuals to receive information as a perspective for framing constitutional coverage of generative AI output - Implications of constitutional coverage for content policing and content moderation by private platforms - Trends in the interpretation of existing content moderation regimes and their applicability to generative AI systems