Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi
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Temporary migration for long-term investment
No full textNew survey data from Bangladesh provide direct evidence that temporary migration is an effective strategy for workers to accumulate capital and finance self-employment activities back home. We estimate a dynamic model of temporary migration and entrepreneurial investment under constraints, which we use for policy analysis. Lowering of migration costs increases emigration, reduces the age at which workers depart and the duration of their time abroad, which together lead to higher savings and domestic self-employment. Cutting the cost of migration by one half boosts business creation by 8%. Reducing the interest rate for entrepreneurial loans lowers migration and savings repatriation, undercutting the positive effects on business creation at home. This highlights the need to investigate migration and investment jointly, since policies targeting either choice may be enhanced or undercut by endogenous responses in the other
Give me a second life! Extending the life-span of luxury products through repair
No full textDespite the rise in luxury organizations’ efforts to embrace the circular economy and offer more sustainable options to consumers, research on luxury goods in the circular economy remains limited and primarily focused on “closing loop” strategies––mainly second-hand and rental business models that challenge the traditional concept of luxury. By contrast, there is a complete paucity of research on luxury product repairs that represent a “slowing loop” strategy that aims to prolong the lifecycle of the luxury good. To investigate this phenomenon, we employed a methodology involving 40 interviews with luxury consumers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a significant luxury goods market. The findings distinguish between different types of repairs (i.e., luxury brands, luxury department stores, or independent services) and reveal three key barriers to repairs (i.e., the time frame required for the repairs, perceived inconvenience, and lack of experience/awareness). The results further point to three rational (e.g., investment value) and three emotional (e.g., inheritance value) drivers of repairs, as well as positive (e.g., pleasure or pride) and negative (e.g., compromised brand relationship) outcomes. This study contributes to the emerging literature on luxury in a circular economy by specifically examining luxury product repair context and the outcomes of luxury repairs by demonstrating that these outcomes can be either positive or negativ
Fundamental groups and the Milnor conjecture
No full textCounterexample to the famous Milnor Conjecture formulated in 1968
Pay transparency and productivity
No full textThis article investigates the productivity consequences of pay transparency. Tracking research
output of 20,000 US academics and leveraging staggered shocks to transparency, we show
that productivity responses vary predictably based on what pay transparency reveals.
We reject a hypothesis that pay transparency leads to a decline in productivity. Rather, we find
that those who transparency reveals to be inequitably overcompensated subsequently increase
their effort, while those inequitably undercompensated subsequently weakly decrease
their effort. Controlling for such pay inequity, the simple level of pay has little effect
on productivity. Our study provides one of the first field-based empirical investigations of
the productivity consequences of wage transparency and points to the importance of clearly
delineating the effects driven by equity as opposed to equality of rewards allocations
The impact of loosening concealed carry laws on firearm demand
Full text linkSince 2021, 14 states have loosened Concealed Carry Weapon (CCW) laws. This research investigates the impact of loosening CCW laws on legal firearm purchases. Specifically, we explore CCW Shall Issue adoption, which removes local authority discretion on permit issuance, and CCW Permitless Carry, the least restrictive policy. We construct both state and county-month panel datasets covering 2010 to 2017, using background checks and online firearm retail purchase data. We find that CCW Shall Issue adoption increases gun purchases, particularly new handguns. Over 70% of this increase is driven by repeat gun buyers. The increase in handguns induced by CCW Shall Issue is substantially greater in high crime and urban areas. In contrast, CCW Permitless Carry has no effect on gun purchases
Machine learning in investment strategies : stock price prediction through support vector machines
No full textStock price prediction is a challenging yet crucial aspect of finance, facilitating informed investment decisions amidst market uncertainties. This study focuses on developing a robust investment strategy utilizing Machine Learning (ML) techniques, specifically Support Vector Machines (SVM). The objective is to create a scalable and adaptable trading algorithm applicable across various investment scenarios. The study adopts a systematic approach comprising optimization and testing phases. Through parameter fine-tuning and rigorous evaluation using separate datasets, the model's predictive accuracy and economic profitability are assessed via statistical metrics and real-world return measures. The study outlines a systematic process for constructing and refining investment strategies. Results demonstrate the superiority of SVM-based ML methods in outperforming market benchmarks and generating significant returns. Moreover, the study emphasizes the importance of economic performance indicators in algorithm selection and optimization. In summary, this research underscores the potential of SVM approaches in stock price prediction and investment strategy development, bridging the gap between ML techniques and practical investment practices
Pay Schemes: Their Micro and Macro Level Dynamics within Organizations
Full text linkCompensation is multifaceted, extending beyond base salaries and bonuses to include financial instruments such as stock options and restricted stocks. This complexity introduces variability among employees in terms of pay amount and pay duration—the time until compensation benefits are realized. Extant literature highlights that employees’ behaviors and decisions are influenced not only by their own pay but also by that of other employees, particularly those in higher ranks. This raises the question of whether and how employees receiving complex compensation packages react to disparities, not only in monetary terms but also in other dimensions of pay. The first chapter delves into this underexplored area by investigating the effect of the disparity in pay duration between CEOs and non-CEO executives on the departure decisions of non-CEO executives. We find that greater pay duration disparity increases voluntary non-CEO executive departures, potentially because it signals a delay in promotion opportunities and reflects the board’s valuation of the executive. Furthermore, our study reveals heterogeneous responses to pay duration disparities depending on factors affecting promotion expectancy. This finding constitutes the first empirical evidence of employee responses to temporal pay disparities beyond monetary amounts.
While gender inequalities in compensation are well-documented across various sectors, reports vary on the extent and nature of these inequalities in CEO compensation. Potentially limiting our understanding of these inequalities is the focus on disparities in pay amounts among CEOs, which may mask inequalities in structural processes that influence pay distribution at the CEO level. The second chapter addresses this gap by examining potential differences between female and male CEOs in two key criteria that guide performance-pay allocation: the number of performance goals and the length of performance evaluation periods. Performance-based pay, which constitutes a significant portion of CEO compensation, relies heavily on these criteria, making their analysis crucial for understanding gender disparities at the CEO level. We explore variations in these performance evaluation criteria for CEOs. The findings reveal that female CEOs often face stricter evaluation criteria, particularly in male-dominated boards and when they have limited past managerial experience. This study contributes to the strategic management literature by providing insights into the complex structures of compensation packages and performance evaluation processes, emphasizing the need for fairer compensation systems that consider gender equity at the CEO level.
The third chapter investigates the events involving the vesting of long-term payments to the CEO and their impact on the firm's legal strategy in handling subsequent lawsuits. Prolonged lawsuits incur rising legal costs, divert resources from core business activities, and potentially harm the company's reputation. To avoid long-term penalties associated with lengthy lawsuits, firms may seek early settlements, though these can be costly and reduce short-term stock value. Managers face a trade-off between avoiding prolonged legal battles and deferring the legal process to maintain current stock values. Given research linking long-term payments with myopic loss aversion, we expect CEOs vested with long-term compensation before lawsuits to prioritize maintaining payment value over long-term firm benefits. Examining lawsuits against firms, we find a positive relationship between long-term compensation value and lawsuit duration that is more pronounced among CEOs who display a tendency to hold onto their options. In turn, lawsuit duration is negatively linked with firm performance and earnings. This study reveals a novel link between long-term CEO compensation and corporate legal strategy, shedding light on the potentially adverse effects of long-term incentives
Essays in Finance and Development Economics
Full text linkIn this thesis, I study topics in development economics and finance, focusing on the effects of policies in the digital payments' market and regulation of immigration. The thesis comprises three distinct papers that explore financial behavior, technological adoption, and economic policy impacts in developing contexts.
The first paper examines the impact of substituting bank deposits with digital currency on banks' lending behavior in developing countries. Using an unexpected tax on Mobile Money in Uganda as a natural experiment, the study finds that the tax led to decreased mobile money usage and increased bank deposits and ATM withdrawals. This influx of new deposits allowed banks to increase their lending. However, the nature of new liquidity resulted in shorter loan repayment terms and a shift of credit from high-risk to low-risk borrowers. Consequently, low-risk borrowers received larger loans at lower interest rates.
The second paper investigates the trade-off between competition and financial inclusion due to vertical integration of mobile network and money operators in Africa. By analyzing data on mobile money fees, network coverage, and financial performance, the study finds that platform interoperability policies lowered fees and reduced fee disparities across operators. However, this benefit was offset by a reduction in mobile towers and network coverage, particularly in rural and poor areas, leading to decreased financial inclusion. The study suggests that combining interoperability with rural telecommunications subsidies can reduce fees without compromising coverage.
The third paper explores the effects of restrictive immigration policies on technology adoption in migrant-sending countries. Analyzing the dramatic drop in Italian emigration to the United States following the 1921 Emergency Quota Act, the study uses a difference-in-differences approach to show that reduced emigration hindered technology adoption and capital investment. This is consistent with the theory that increased labor supply decreases firms' incentives to adopt labor-saving technologies. Data indicates that districts more exposed to migration restrictions saw significant increases in population and manufacturing employment due to the ``missing migrants'' who could not emigrate.
These essays provide insights into the complex dynamics of financial behavior, technology adoption, and policy impacts in developing economies, highlighting the trade-offs and interconnected outcomes that policymakers must consider to foster inclusive and sustainable economic development
Inequality in history: a long-run view
Full text linkThis article provides an overview of long-term trends in income and wealth inequality, from ca. 1300 until today. It discusses recent acquisitions in terms of inequality measurement, building upon earlier research and systematically connecting preindustrial, industrial, and post-industrial tendencies. It shows that in the last seven centuries or so, inequality of both income and wealth has tended to grow continuously, with two exceptions: the century or so following the Black Death pandemic of 1347-52, and the period from the beginning of World War I until the mid-1970s. It discusses recent encompassing hypotheses about the factors leading to long-run inequality change, highlighting their relative merits and faults, and arguing for the need to pay close attention to the historical context