CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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The Compensation Fund for Climate Impacts
Get PDFClimate change is very likely to lead to undesirable climate impacts. How to compensate for such negative impacts at the international level has, hitherto, received little attention. This article reviews the most frequently discussed grounds for legal obligations of states vis-a-vis climate impacts (damages) and concludes that no convincing mechanism has yet been found to compensate climate impacts. The authors outline an architecture for a voluntary, international compensation fund with specialized, independent climate courts. Subsequently, this article addresses three strategic considerations related to the fund, namely, the incentives for founding it, the merits of double proportionality with respect to contributions and payments, as well as the benefits of employing prediction markets to enhance trustworthinesspublishedVersio
Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations
Get PDFWe use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5–20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5–10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005–2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120mWm−2 OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39±41mWm−2 relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (R2 = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750–2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100mWm−2. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394±42mWm−2. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384±60mWm−2 derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.publishedVersio
African Development Bank (AfDB)
Get PDFCategory: Second Opinion, Sector: Development, Issuer type: Financial Institution, Shading: Not shadedpublishedVersio
Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations
Get PDFWe report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.publishedVersio
Upgrading to cleaner household stoves and reducing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among women in rural China — A cost-benefit analysis
Get PDFPreindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
Get PDFWe have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multimodel mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34 %). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6 %) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (1CO/1NOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5±2.2 %) leads to a 4.3±1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to presentday climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4±12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3±2.3 %, 7.6±1.5 %, and 3.1±3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.publishedVersio
Elemental carbon measurements in European Arctic snow packs
Get PDF© 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved[1] Black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing particles deposited on snow and ice are known to perturb the surface radiative balance. There are few published observations of the concentration of these particles in the snow in Scandinavia and the European Arctic. We measured BC concentrations in snow samples collected in this region from 2007 to 2009, and we present the results here. The data set includes 484 surface samples and 24 column samples (covering the accumulation season) from snow on land, glaciers, and sea ice. Concentrations up to 88 ng of carbon per gram of snow (ng/g) were found in Scandinavia, while lower values were observed at higher latitudes: 11–14 ng/g in Svalbard, 7–42 ng/g in the Fram Strait, and 9 ng/g in Barrow. Values compare well with other observations but are generally found to be a factor of 2–3 higher than modeled BC concentrations in snow in the chemical transport model Oslo CTM2. This model underestimation comes in spite of potentially significant undercatch in the observations. The spring melt period enhanced BC levels in surface snow at the four sites where the BC concentrations were monitored from March to May in 2008 and 2009. A data set of replicate samples is used to establish a concentration-dependent estimate of the meter-scale variability of BC concentration in snow, found to be around ±30% of the average concentration.publishedVersio
Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty
Get PDFThe impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.publishedVersio
Climate change, risk management and the end of Nomadic pastoralism
Get PDFMobility has been argued to be the single factor explaining why some pastoralists do relatively well during extreme climatic events, while others do not, because mobility works by taking advantage of the spatial and temporal structure of resource failure by moving away from scarcity towards abundance. In spite of this, a common governmental management strategy is to resettle pastoral populations and thereby significantly reduce mobility. By revealing the underlying logic of mobility for Tibetan pastoralists, this paper questions official policy that aims at privatizing communally owned rangelands since it reduces pastoral flexibility and access to key resources. This is especially pertinent in the face of climate change. While little is known as to the specifics of how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists, environmental variability is likely to increase. Consequently, policies resulting in decreased mobility may exacerbate the negative effects of climate change because of a positive feedback between climate and negative density dependence.submittedVersio
