CICERO Research Archive (CICERO Senter for klimaforskning)
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1083 research outputs found
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Government participation in virtual negotiations: evidence from IPCC approval sessions
Get PDFThe Covid-19 pandemic challenged global governance in unprecedented ways by requiring intergovernmental meetings to be held online. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this meant that the intergovernmental approval of the key findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) had to be conducted virtually. In this paper, we assess how the move away from face-to-face meetings affected country participation in IPCC approval sessions. Our findings demonstrate that virtual meetings increased the size of member governments’ delegations, but this did not necessarily translate into a greater number of interventions during the approval of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) as time zone differences reduced engagement levels significantly—particularly for countries from the Pacific, East Asian, and Latin American regions whose delegations often found themselves in IPCC meetings late at night and early in the morning. These results offer initial, empirically robust evidence about what online meetings can and cannot achieve for promoting more inclusive global governance at a time when the IPCC and other organizations reflect on the future use of virtual and hybrid meeting formats.publishedVersio
Health, energy security or people's jobs? Understanding cooking transition narratives and energy justice implications in Tanzania
Get PDFThe achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7 ‘affordable and clean energy for all’ is incomplete with 1.8 billion people worldwide still dependent on biomass for cooking, with detrimental effects on health, well-being and environment. The situation is especially acute in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores cooking transition narratives in the Tanzanian context. The recent policy initiative towards clean cooking from the Tanzanian government provides the opportunity to investigate the main actors and perspectives that set the scene for clean cooking, and justice implications. Drawing on interviews with relevant stakeholders and analysis of key strategic documents we find that the current narratives highlight technical, financial and environmental dimensions, but has little emphasis on the end-users. This provides limited understanding of the practices that underpin cooking, and people's ability to transition to clean cooking technologies. In the future, there is a need to consult the end-users to ensure a successful, just and sustainable transition.publishedVersio
Effect modification of air pollution on the association between heat and mortality in five European countries
Get PDFEvidence suggests that air pollution modifies the association between heat and mortality. However, most studies have been conducted in cities without rural data. This time-series study examined potential effect modification of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) on heat-related mortality using small-area data from five European countries, and explored the influence of area characteristics.publishedVersio
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways
Get PDFGlobal warming is rapidly shifting climate conditions away from what societies and ecosystems are adapted to. While the magnitude of changes in mean and extreme climate are broadly studied, regional rates of change, a key driver of climate risk, have received less attention. Here we show, using large ensembles of climate model simulations, that large parts of the tropics and subtropics, encompassing 70% of current global population, are expected to experience strong (>2 s.d.) joint rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes combined over the next 20 years, under a high-emissions scenario, dropping to 20% under strong emissions mitigation. This is dominated by temperature extremes, with most of the world experiencing unusual (>1 s.d.) rates relative to the pre-industrial period, but unusual changes also occur for precipitation extremes in northern high latitudes, southern and eastern Asia and equatorial Africa. However, internal variability is high for 20 year trends, meaning that in the near term, trends of the opposite sign are still likely for precipitation extremes, and rare but not impossible for temperature extremes. We also find that rapid clean-up of aerosol emissions, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.acceptedVersio
“Narrative images” as a learning approach: (transformative) adaptation scenarios for dealing with urban water risks in Hamburg, Germany
Get PDFIn recent years, weather-related extreme events have shown the limits of technical approaches to urban water challenges and highlighted the urgent need to rethink the relationship between cities and water and to see water as a partner in shaping transformative, climate-safe and just urban futures. However, existing scientific studies depicting future trajectories of urban water management have struggled to make the intertwined social and ecological dynamics of (transformative) urban adaptation tangible and accessible. This study focuses on the potential of visual communication of scenarios to stimulate both learning among scientists (during the process of creating the scenarios) and social learning (as a next step using the developed “narrative images”) to motivate diverse societal actors to engage with the complexity of sustainable urban water management. Art can overcome barriers of scientific and technical concepts and touch peoples' inner motivation for preserving and sustainably transforming our cities in a way that written texts cannot. As sustainability challenges transcend disciplines, this study draws methodically on an interdisciplinary scenario approach. Three adaptation scenarios were developed in a participatory process and professionally visualized as “narrative images” using the city of Hamburg as a case study. The scenarios take place in 2050 depicting a gradient ranging from coping to incremental adaptation to transformative adaptation for managing the water-adaptation nexus: “Water defensive city,” “Water resilient city,” and “Water aware city.” The scenario study shows innovatively how to bring the humanities, natural and engineering sciences into a deliberative dialog, while at the same time promoting collective learning. It can serve as a model for successful future interdisciplinary research and scenario developing exercises.publishedVersio
Can policy packaging help overcome Pigouvian tax aversion? A lab experiment on combining taxes and subsidies
No full textTax aversion makes it politically challenging to introduce Pigouvian taxes. One proposed solution to overcome this resistance is to package policies. Using an online lab experiment, we investigate whether combining a tax and a subsidy is perceived as more acceptable than the tax or the subsidy alone. The purpose of the policies is to reduce demand for a good with a negative externality to the socially optimal level. We find that support for a combination of a tax and a subsidy equals the simple average of support for the two instruments alone. Combining a tax and a subsidy therefore does not reduce tax aversion. We examine potential mechanisms behind the tax aversion. Participants believe they will receive a lower share of the tax revenue when the tax is implemented alone than when it is combined with a subsidy, i.e. the participants in the tax alone group hold more pessimistic beliefs about the tax revenue. We also find that the participants expect the tax to be more effective in reducing demand for the good with a negative externality than both the subsidy alone and the combinations of tax and subsidy. This belief does not, however, translate into support for the tax.Can policy packaging help overcome Pigouvian tax aversion? A lab experiment on combining taxes and subsidiespublishedVersio
Satellite-based analysis of top of atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing trend induced by biomass burning aerosols over South-Eastern Atlantic
Get PDFThis study investigates long-term changes in the shortwave direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) induced by biomass burning aerosol (BBA) transported from southern Africa to the south-eastern Atlantic (SEA) stratocumulus region during extended fire seasons. The evolution since 2002 of aerosol, cloud properties, and TOA shortwave outgoing radiation from advanced passive satellite sensors are presented, as well as the observational trend in clear-sky DAREclr and the retrieval trend in all-sky DAREall. Supplemented by chemical transport model simulations, we estimate that DAREclr has become more negative (−0.09 ± 0.06 W m−2 yr−1) due to increased aerosol presence in SEA. Meanwhile, DAREall has become more positive ( + 0.04 ± 0.15 W m−2 yr−1) due to aerosols in cloudy sky regions. This study reveals satellite capabilities in capturing complex BBA-cloud-solar radiation interactions for accurate radiative forcing estimates and projections.publishedVersio
Projecting future forest microclimate using a land surface model
Get PDFThe forest understory experiences temperature variations that are dampened compared to adjacent open areas, allowing the development of a forest microclimate and associated ecological conditions. It is however unclear to what extent forests will maintain this buffering effect under increasing global warming. Providing reliable projections of future forest microclimates is therefore crucial to anticipate climate change impacts on forest biodiversity, and to identify corresponding conservation strategies. Recent empirical studies suggest that the buffering of air temperature extremes in forest understory compared to open land could increase with global warming, albeit at a slower rate than macroclimate temperatures. Here, we investigate the trend of this temperature buffering effect in a high-emission global warming scenario, using the process-based Land Surface Model CLM5.1. We find biome-dependant buffering trends with strongest values in tropical forests where buffering increases for every degree of global warming by 0.1 ∘C for maximum soil temperature, and by 0.2 ∘C for maximum canopy air temperature. In boreal regions, forest microclimate exhibits a strong seasonality and the effect of global warming is more uncertain. Thus, our results highlight the importance of tropical forest canopies in particular, in maintaining hospitable conditions for understory species while increasing their climate debt under global warming. Our research also illustrates the potential and limitations of Land Surface Models to simulate forest microclimate, and calls for further collaborations between Earth system modelers and ecologists to jointly question climate and biosphere dynamics.publishedVersio
A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change
Get PDFClimate change could lead to high economic burden for individuals (i.e. low income and high prices). While economic conditions are important determinants of climate change vulnerability, environmental epidemiological studies focus primarily on the direct impact of temperature on morbidity and mortality without accounting for climate-induced impacts on the economy. More integrated approaches are needed to provide comprehensive assessments of climate-induced direct and indirect impacts on health. This paper provides some perspectives on how epidemiological and economic impact assessments could be better integrated. We argue that accounting for the economic repercussions of climate change on people's health and, vice versa, the consequences of health effects on the economy could provide more realistic scenario projections and could be more useful for adaptation policy.publishedVersio
EUs påvirkning på ikke-medlemmers autonomi: Norges og Storbritannias handlingsrom innenfor klima og energi
Get PDFEUs grønne giv kan ha omfattende konsekvenser også for land som ikke er medlemmer, men som er tilknyttet EU. Mens Norge møter klimakrisen med å samarbeide tettere med EU, har Storbritannia trukket seg ut av viktige avtaler. Vi benytter kvalitativ metode for å undersøke hvordan relasjonene mellom EU og disse landene har påvirket landenes handlingsrom innenfor klima- og energipolitikk. Funnene våre gir kun delvis støtte til antakelsen om at jo mer omfattende og juridisk bindende en avtale mellom EU og et land er, jo mer mister dette landet autonomi eller aksepterer begrensninger. Det er mer komplekst enn som så, og det varierer for ulike kategorier av handlingsrom. Mens Storbritannia har økt mulighetene for å lage sine egne regelverk, er dette handlingsrommet langt mindre enn den britiske regjeringen ønsker å framstille det som, og ikke uten kostnader. Samtidig viser sammenligningen med Norge at det kan ligge mye autonomi i å binde seg til et overnasjonalt regelverk. Studien viser hvordan det kan være både utfordrende og givende for ikke-medlemmer å samarbeide med EU.EUs påvirkning på ikke-medlemmers autonomi: Norges og Storbritannias handlingsrom innenfor klima og energipublishedVersio